PS6 and Next-Gen Xbox Not Expected to Launch Until Fall 2028 at the Earliest - News
by William D'Angelo , posted on 23 November 2022 / 10,470 Views
It appears that Microsoft and Sony don't see the next-generation of consoles to launch until fall 2028 at the earliest, according to Microsoft's response over the concerns presented by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) of the UK over Microsoft's proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard.
"The Parties (Microsoft and Sony) do not dispute that some portion of gamers are likely to re-assess their console ownership at the start of a new generation," reads the response from Microsoft. But they also note that this is an event that only occurs approximately every eight years.
"Ineed the next new generation of consoles are not expected to be released before the fall of 2028 at the very earliest. The ongoing global shortage of semiconductors and supply chain disruptions have limited the supply of PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S."
Sony Interactive Entertainment in it's own response said that Microsoft offered to continue to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation until 2027.
"Microsoft has offered to continue making Activision’s games available on PlayStation only until 2027," reads the response from Sony. "Likewise, in public comments just on October 26, Microsoft said that it plans to offer Call of Duty on PlayStation only 'as long as that makes sense.'"
"A period until 2027 – or some other (possibly shorter) time that Microsoft unilaterally determines 'makes sense' to Microsoft – is badly inadequate."
Sony and Microsoft released their responses to the CMA last month and now Microsoft on November offered a new deal to Sony to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation for 10 years. Sony declined to comment on the reported offer.
So far only Saudi Arabia and Brazil have been confirmed to approve the deal. Microsoft said it expect Serbia to approve the deal soon.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can contact the author on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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That's okay with me. This gen has had a slow start anyways.
Me too. I'd love this generation to even out-last the PS360 generation. The very existence of the Series S is because Microsoft has predicted production costs won't drop quickly this gen. And we're reaching a point of diminishing returns anyway, where you orders of magnitude more power for the average person to notice the difference.
I've been expecting this considering the slow start to the generation and how graphical improvements over time are becoming less noticeable, but great to have "confirmation" or as close to it as we can come at the moment.
I've kind of been expecting this to be the case. The console shortage likely plays a role in the planned timing for next gen consoles. Considering they're still supply constrained (granted it's been getting better) they'll likely want to keep these consoles on the market for longer than they did PS4/XB1.
I'm more interested in the next Switch than the next PS or Xbox. As it is, the currently existing PS5 or XS have yet to justify the purchase price. With PS5 I'm waiting to see how FF16 shakes out.
It's ok to delay it further 2030 or sumfin,
This console gen had a very slow start thanks to covid!
This generation seems to have been almost stillborn.
If they want a 10x again, and they DON'T want to make their systems even bigger, then that's the smart option, really.
Why are they talking about this already?
Considering the first two years with supply shortages and cross gen games. 2028 isnt far away. If hope that gets pushed back and allow these machines more time to shine
Gens usually don't take 8 years to start, but sure this gen could change the average 5/6 years timeframe.
Since 2 generations now the timeframe is 7/8 years and it will only grow from there since it almost takes 5/6 years to develop a single AAA title.
PS1 94
PS2 00
PS3 06
PS4 13
PS5 20
For PS it increased from 6 years to 7 years, so yes going to 8 isn't improbable.
so 2030 until can buy one from a prooer retailer
"A period until 2027 – or some other (possibly shorter) time that Microsoft unilaterally determines 'makes sense' to Microsoft – is badly inadequate."
The hypocrisy of all this is that it's not that they're saying it's badly inadequate for competition, or for the consumer, they're saying it's badly inadequate for Sony. The arguments are self-serving, which is why they're almost completely focused on Call of Duty.
That's when you'll get The Disappointing GTA VI
Will there even be a PS6 and nextbox? should be all digital and cloud by then?
The death of the console has been oft-predicted, and never once realized. Consoles being sold at or below cost is too big a selling point vs. PCs (that are intended to be sold at a profit). And streaming will get more common (I'm already doing it myself some of the time, so I'm no streaming hater), but I doubt it's going to be the dominant way console games are played by 2028.
That's great news, with a 9 year console cycle I maybe buy a Series S to play some exclusives. If the PS5 Pro launches in 2025 significantly more powerful than standard model I will upgrade too
There may not be a PS5 Pro. In fact, there probably won't be (see my reply above to @shikamaru317).
The very existence of the Series S is because Microsoft is betting there won't be, in fact. It doesn't mean they're right, but it does mean they're placing a multi-million dollar bet on it.
Matches with the recent report stating that Sony doesn't plan to release a PS5 Pro until 2025, they won't release a Pro console unless it has at least 3 years on the market before PS6 releases, possibly 4 years, so 2028-2029 for PS6 then.
It's not a sure thing that they'll release a Pro console this generation, though, so I wouldn't assume that in your timeline.
The "Pro" consoles made sense last-gen because the PS4, and especially the Xbox One, were very weak compared to PCs, even at launch. That's less true of the PS5 and Series X.
In fact, Microsoft released the Series S in part because they fear they won't be able to cost-reduce the Series X quickly enough. So a more powerful (and even more expensive) mid-gen refresh may not make any financial sense at all.
Past price reductions were driven largely by moving to smaller chip manufacturing processes. Newer processes are still yielding size and thermal advantages, but they're no longer yielding the big net cost reductions they used to.
Going forward, architectural improvements may yield better results. A great example is how the Series S is more powerful overall than the One X, yet the Series S is cheaper to manufacture.
So time will tell, but there's lots of reasons to be pessimistic that we'll see "Pro" consoles this generation. And if we do, we may see them much later than we did last-gen.
The source who said Sony is planning PS5 Slim for September 2023 and PS5 Pro for 2025 has been pretty reliable in the past. Guess we'll see what happens.
For sure, we'll see what happens. I'm not saying you (or this source) are wrong. But I'll put more stock in Microsoft's explicit and open statements on the subject than rumours about what Sony might or might not be doing, you know?
Though as I say, it's possible for them to go in different directions. A PS5 Pro one year against a whole new generation Xbox a year or two later? That'd be a fascinating match-up, with each gaining advantages over the other (PS5 Pro an early-to-market advantage, a new architecture Xbox a power advantage and possibly a cost/performance advantage).
But the technical and macroeconomic reasons Microsoft says they likely won't release a "Pro" console also hold true for Sony, so it's likeliest that they both will or that they both won't.
The only problem with public statements is that they aren't incisive. "not expected" just means it could some earlier and just give an explanation.
MS and Nintendo said less than 6 months ago that it was not on their plans to increase price, but less than a month ago they were already saying they may have to increase.
When Ms made that statement it was in response to their console price not game prices.
6 months ago they had no plans at that time to raise prices. A month ago Microsoft said they still have no near-term plans, but that may not remain true forever. Personally I prefer them telegraphing the possibility.
I'm not bad mouthing them for changes. I'm just saying that companies say "no plan at the moment" actually only means "we won't release information about it at this moment".
I hold that console new gens happen when SW sales of current gen start decreasing, so yes it may be MS plan to have a new console no earlier than 2028 but that can change for more or less because depending on sales.
Having said all of that, A PS5 Slim in 2023 is very likely though, I totally agree with that. There's enough empty space in the 2022 revision of the PS5 that they could have done it this year. They may have chosen to hold off in part because, once PS5 supply finally catches up with demand, a Slim model will kickstart demand again. So why kickstart demand before you even catch up with the initial demand?
Rather than a more powerful Series X, I actually think we'll see a more powerful Series S that bridges the gap between them a little better. Perhaps with an optical drive to further differentiate it (and potentially allow the old and new Series S to co-habitate store shelves). The fact that the Series S was the first of the new consoles to see its supply catch up with its demand, and the first one to see any official discounting, means it's the one that would most benefit from a refresh, not the PS5 or the Series X. And there's precedent for this, the One S is slightly more powerful than the original VCR-shaped One.
Pro release was more to have a 4k output machine for the new TVs, not sure there will be a push for 8k so soon so yes there is less reason for Pro this gen.
You're totally right. I'd forgotten that, thank you for reminding me!
But the factors that drove that in previous generations aren't there right now. The price drops of the PS360 generation were driven by frequent and dramatic die-shrinks.
The need for "Pro" consoles last-gen was driven by the PS4/XBO being dramatically underpowered compared to contemporary PCs (plus people upgrading to 4k TVs, as @DonFerrari correctly notes, thanks for reminding me of that Don!).
Since people aren't upgrading to 8K TVs in any kind of number, and because we're not expecting frequent and dramatic die-shrinks (and die shrinks may not introduce significant net cost savings anyway this generation), the situation is entirely different now.
Look at the Series S. It was more powerful overall than the One X, despite being cheaper to manufacture. A Pro console would require a re-iteration of the existing architecture, but moving to a new architecture would likely yield bigger gains at lower cost. So all of that is standing in the way of "Pro" consoles this time around.
That doesn't mean Pro consoles won't happen this gen. But it does mean they very well may not.
Also for the constant price drops, those were necessary to drive console sales (PS4 time, PS CEO even said that for them the most important part was driving adoption faster than profitability, and in gens before that it was even more true), and in PS360 time the competition was very fierce. This time consoles are being sold out at original price and cost isn't coming down fast enough, so yes I also agree with you that pricedrops are unlikely (PS4 and X1 didn't had as many price drops as PS1, PS2 and PS3 era consoles). Just look Switch 6 years in the market without a real pricedrop, we had revision down being cheaper and revision up being stronger.
