Holiday 2020 Sales Predictions - PS5 & XSX to Set Launch Records, Switch Best-Selling Console - Sales

Yes, launch week.

It's gonna be very difficult to ship enough Switches for that, but we'll see.

Damn that sucks! I assume it's just retail sales that they've stopped so at least you can still buy them online.

Only retail, Still being sold online. It will be fine since consoles did extremely well during the lockdown of march. Stocks were the issue which won't be a problem this time.

I think you're a bit too optimistic here. I really doubt the PS5 would sell 12M at launch and 25M+ in it's first full year. Because that's what it's gonna need to compete with the Switch, let alone outsell it.

Not optimistic mate. Just being realistic here. And PS5 will have the biggest launch in video game history. Jim Ryan stated PS5 pre-orders did what PS4 pre-orders did in 12 hours compared to PS4's 3 month timeframe. That says everything for me. If Sony meets 2021 demand, PS5 can easily do 25+ million it's 1st year. I don't know if Sony can meet production to do that but we'll see. If anything, for Nintendo, Holiday 2020 this is only time I see the Switch outselling the PS5. Sony launching their 9th gen system during a worldwide pandemic and another Europe covid-lockdown is lucky for Nintendo.

No console ever sold 20 million or more in it's first year, that is completely unrealistic because many people wait untill the library is bigger before getting one. The Switch is selling like insane, but in it's launchyear it got easily outsold by the PS4 and that will most likely happen again, I think the Switch will be the bestselling console in 2021 and if it gets enough first-party stuff maybe also in 2022 before the PS5 will be king on the market. It was similar with the PS4 back then, which basically stopped being the best selling console at the end of 2018. So holiday 2022 might be when PS5 takes over for good. There's no possible way the PS5 outsells the Switch this year or next year also because of the stock shortages.

Then why do I see Nintendo gamers saying the Switch will do 25 or 30+ million in a year then? This argument goes both ways mate. PS4 is still doing well for a console that is 7 years old and getting cross gen support from Sony and support regardless for another 3 or 4 years. PS5 is launching with the biggest line-up we've seen in PlaySation history. Spider-Man Miles Morales, Sackboy, and Ratchet and Clank Rift Apart. Those 3, 1st party games alone will proper PS5 sales more insanely than it already is. Sony has already teased a new God Of War for next year and Sony has been quiet for their other big 1st party games for 2021. Only reason Nintendo wins Holiday 2020 is due to Sony having supply and demand issues and launching during a worldwide pandemic. If Sony meets the production for Holiday 2021 and throughout 2021, no way Nintendo outsells Sony. 2021 and Holiday 2021 onward Sony takes back the sales like they do usually. I might give Nintendo the rest of 2020 though.

You see Nintendo predictions of 25-30M+ consoles because the Switch is, at this point, tracking ~8M in front of last year's sales at the same time. Since the Switch sold 19.3M times last year, we're already at about 27M if holiday sales would stay the same. But most probably, they will go up compared to last year, so 30M or even more are not impossible. So from there, dropping far below 25M sales for next year seems a bit much, so most 2021 Switch predictions are around that number.

PS4 is not doing exceptional for a 7 year old console; PS3 was even slightly better at the same point of time. The 360 was even just somewhat below in it's 8th year and sold over 170k in it's 7th one.

PS4 preorders opened up much earlier, hence why it took longer for the amount to rack up since many preorder only shortly before release. So it's not even guaranteed the PS5 preorders are really on the same level as the PS4 levels if they didn't precise it. And while it has some great games at release, that's still just a small amount of games and don't match everybody's tastes.

Finally, you seem to forget that Microsoft is doing some actual competition this time around, unlike last launch here the One was just the butt of jokes. So they certainly will steal some sales, too, especially with Gamepass being a pretty big success for them.

Mate I never said the PS4 was doing expectational I said it's still doing 'alright' for a console that isn't in its prime anymore and is in the last stages of its life. Like I see Nintendo gamers being hyped 9th gen Switch is outselling 8th gen PS4 when 8th gen is over now. Seriously? That's like comparing LeBron in his prime to Micheal Jordan in his late years.

2017 and 2018 when PS4 was in its prime and PS5 wasn't on the horizon, PS4 still held over 50% market share over Switch and Xbox One. It took till2019 and 2020 for the Switch to take market share over when PS4 was on its way out and Sony was gearing up for PS5. Again I don't even like comparing Switch and PS4 cause it's 9th gen vs 8th gen. The Switch's actual competition the PS5 is now here.

PS4 pre-orders opened up earlier and PS5's pre-orders were spontaneous. People had time to plan ahead for PS4's and in 12 hours Jim Ryan himself said PS5 surpassed that. 3 months of pre-order time vs 12 hours. You do the math on that and act like PS5 isn't going crush everything on a year to year same alignment basis.

Microsoft? Competition? No diss to Xbox but Series X has no big Holiday launch line up game to compete with PS5. Halo: Infinite delayed till god knows when. What 1st Party game does Microsoft have this year for the Series X that will compete Spider Man Miles Morales? Gamepass? Sony already stated they don't need a Gamepass model this gen cause their games sell extremely well enough as it is. Be that physically or digitally. Sony is starting off this gen correctly. This won't be a failed PS3 launch situation where 360 and PS3 sales are going to be neck and neck.

Not sure if people follow VGChartz only for the news but if you step outside of VGChartz and do some YouTube videos, or press release statements by companies, the hype for PS5 is real. It says a lot on Sony's part that even launching during a worldwide pandemic, PS5 is still going to do record numbers the industry has never seen before. Makes me think those analyst predicting 150-200 million lifetime sold for PS5 aren't off the mark with that.

And Sony makes games for everyone's taste. They don't stick with one style and call it a day. They have ambitious 1st party studios. And If you don't like Sony 1st party, that's why Sony is securing up the 3rd party deals. 3rd parties sold better on Sony's platform last gen and soon to be this gen for a reason.

Nintendo fans aren't hyping up the Switch's sales cause its outselling a 7 year old PS4, they're hyping it up because its currently outpacing a PS4 system that sold 113M units within the same timeframe since launch.

Also like said above, literally no system sold 20Million in their first year, I think the peak first year for a system might've been the Switch which was around 17M in its first year. That number is still ways away from 20 Million, so to believe the PS5 will sell 25 Million in its first year is nonsensical, especially when the console market is now dead in Japan. There has been a lot of hype of the PS5, but Sony hasn't been giving any hard numbers that show the PS5 will outsell the Switch this holiday. The Switch will likely sell 12M+ units this Holiday Season, no way in hell the PS5 will surpass it.

Also not one Playstation console sold 25 Million in one year even during their prime. The highest was the 2003 PS2 which sold 22 Million in its peak, and thats the greatest selling console of all time! To expect the PS5 to do something a Playstation console never been able to do in their prime in the PS5's first year is ridiculous. Especially since the Japan Console market is now dead. For it to happen, Sony needs to get an insane lead over Microsoft in the U.S or sell even more than they are in Europe with numbers so incomprehensible to achieve. Sony won't be as dominant anymore in NA with Xbox now being a legit competitor their, it wasn't like the PS2 or PS1 gens wgere Sony was basically on its own in NA.

javi741, the console market in Japan isn't dead, Playstation is maybe dying there, but the Switch has already outsold the lifetime sales of the Wii in Japan by several million units. Nintendo consoles are doing good there.

Kakadu18 the Switch is seen as more of a handheld in Japan than a console. I'm sure if you take away the Switch's portability the Switch likely would've struggled to hit 10M units in its lifetime as opposed to 30M sold in Japan which is expected. The Wii, despite how successful and huge it was globally, wasn't a major hit in Japan only selling 12 Million compared to the NES and SNES which sold around 20M in Japan despite being far less successful than the Wii globally. By the time the Wii released the console market was already slowly dying in Japan. And now with an insanely successful PS4 not even hitting 10M sold there is showing that the console market is nearly dead over there. The Switch is only successful over there cause its primarily a handheld.

These are my actual predictions for this holiday season. Now as always predictions are just that. They are not guaranteed, but using what information I have available.

What predictions remind you of Michael Pachter?

@SKMBlake - In what way? Which ones are unreasonable?

I don’t know why so many people hate this comment.

Because pro-Bidens are the fanatic ones.

Probably more because the Biden comment makes no sense at all. He wouldn't even be President yet when the next Gen releases, he only takes office next year.

Now I understand. I am on Bidens site but I’m not an american people.

What is the highest score ever seen in red thumbs ? Am I close to it ?

Something in the 20's was the biggest I saw, so you'll need a couple more for sure