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Michael Pachter: Cyberpunk 2077 to Likely Sell 15 Million Units in Its First Year

Michael Pachter: Cyberpunk 2077 to Likely Sell 15 Million Units in Its First Year - Sales

by William D'Angelo , posted on 01 November 2020 / 2,196 Views

Cyberpunk 2077 has been a long-anticipated game from The Witcher developers CD Projekt RED. After many years of waiting it will be coming out next month on November 19. 

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter speaking in an interview with GamingBolt said Cyberpunk 2077 will most likely sell around 15 million units in its first year. However, a range of 12 million units to 20 million units is entirely possible. If the game ends up with a 99 on Metacritic it could potentially sell 30 million units.

"It’s really hard to tell," Pachter said. "It’s also coming out in November, so I say it probably sells around 15 million. Could it sell 20 million? Sure. 12 million? Sure. But 15 million seems right. If it gets like a 99 on Metacritic, then it could sell 30 million. But if it gets 90, it can sell 15 million. And it won’t get an 80, it will be a great game."

Michael Pachter: Cyberpunk 2077 to Likely Sell Around 15 Million Units in Its First Year

Pachter believes the game will get a 92 average on Metacritic, which is why he believes it will sell 15 million units.

"The difference between a 90 and a 97 is these really tiny nuances that game critics focus on," Pachter said. "I could see Cyberpunk get a 97, but right now I would say 92 is the likely Metacritic average, and that it sells 15 million."

Cyberpunk 2077 will launch on the Xbox One, PlayStation 4, and PC on November 19. It will have backward compatibility on launch day for the Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5. 


A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.


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10 Comments
shikamaru317 (on 15 October 2020)

Considering Witcher 3 is over 30m lifetime, I wouldn't be surprised if Cyberpunk ends up over 30m life time as well. As for first year, I'm not sure if he means first 12 months, or sales in 2020, but I'd say 20m+ first 12 months is pretty likely, with 10m+ before the end of 2020. Doubt metacritic will have much impact at all unless it is shockingly low, like below 80, which would be a huge downgrade over the metas on Witcher 1, 2, and 3, and would suggest some major problems with the game.

  • +2
AFattyGamer (on 15 October 2020)

Pachter could be right about this actually. A lot of hype surrounding CD Projekt Red and Cyberpunk. 15 million sales isn't out of reach for them :)

  • +1
DroidKnight AFattyGamer (on 15 October 2020)

It will do that easily.

  • +1
aircanada83 (on 16 October 2020)

15 mln would be disaster for Cyberpunk. They are aiming for 20-30 mln territory.

  • 0
gtotheunit91 aircanada83 (on 16 October 2020)

They should've delayed it to early next year then lol. There's an insane amount of competition in their release window now. Whether that's the new CoD, Destiny 2 expansion, Assassin's Creed: Valhalla, Watch Dogs, Demon's Souls remake, Spider-Man: Miles Morales, Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity and more. On top of that, at launch, the releases will be, on consoles at least, only on Xbox One and PS4 with PS5 and XSX versions coming later on. So CD Projekt Red is allowing sales to be eaten up early on with a last gen release at the same time of a brand new generation with stiff competition. Don't get me wrong, this game is going to still sell insanely at launch and should have amazing legs for continued sales like Witcher 3. They would've had April and September all to themselves, but this new window is going to hurt a little in early sales.

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padib (on 15 October 2020)

I'm afraid now.

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AFattyGamer NightlyPoe (on 15 October 2020)

Nah Pachter is very entertaining lol. VGChartz ain't doing nothing wrong with some Pachter non sense here and there xD

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Chicho NightlyPoe (on 16 October 2020)

The pachter power got you to click on the article.

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