Summary & A Look Ahead:
Even though Final Fantasy XIII dropped off by more than a million units from its launch week, software sales were still enormous in Japan. Final Fantasy games are in fact famous for their drop offs, as Final Fantasy XII for instance dropped over 1.5 million units from week one to week two. DS software in particular showed fairly dramatic increases. If the preliminary data is correct, the DS had five titles top 100,000 in Japan this week – Tamodatchi Collection, Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver, Inazuma Eleven 2 Fire/Blizzard, Layton, and The Legend of Zelda: The Sprit Tracks. Wii also had a strong week, with New Super Mario Bros Wii topping half a million units for another week. Wii Fit Plus also looks like it topped 100,000 for the week. Outside of Wii and DS, the only game to top 100,000 was Final Fantasy XIII.
In addition to the eight titles over 100,000 units for the week, five other titles saw solid success – topping 50,000 units for the week.
Preorders for the near term are relatively quiet. Dragon Quest VI will do well in early 2010 for DS, but it is still too early to predict. Kingdom Hearts on PSP debuts on January 9, and still looks like it can top 400,000 units week one as preorders are near 250,000. The timing of the title should soften the drop of PSP in early January compared to other systems. From the January 4, 2009 to January 11, 2009 week PSP dropped from 165,000 to 68,000. With Kingdom Hearts coming on January 9, the drop may only be 30-50% rather than 55-75%.
Understanding the Japanese Preview:
Rather than saying x game for y platform sold between 20,000 and 28,000 units as in the past, the preliminary data will be broken down into charts by platform. Within these charts, there will two additional categories besides the rounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the left will be ‘low end’ depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold for the week, while to the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highest amount the title likely sold for the week. As always, this data is preliminary, and therefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. The varying platform market share the sample represents is why consistent sellers like Wii Fit do not always appear in the preliminary data. Sales for this report are for the week ending December 27, 2009.
Software by Platform:
Wii Software – New Super Mario Bros. Wii remained enormous this week. The game has topped 500,000 for the third week since it launched and is now owned by one in four Wii users in Japan. Going forward, the question is whether the game is big enough to drive Wii adoption, or whether it will begin to decline once it attaches to 30-40% of Wii users in Japan. Super Mario Bros. 1 ended up at a 35% attach rate on Famicom (6.81m games on the 19.11m Famicom base) in the 1980s, so New Super Mario Bros Wii can certainly sell well for a long time if it fully taps that audience. In second place, Wii Fit Plus (the game only sku) sold 120,000 units up sharply from last week. PokePark and Wii Sports Resort came in at 94,000 and 86,000 units respectively. Taiko 2 (the game only sku) also rose this week, topping 50,000 units. In the final data, Mario Kart Wii, Monster Hunter 3, Samurai Warriors 3, Tales of Graces, Momatarou Dentetsu, Mario & Sonic, Kamen Riders and a few other games likely topped 5,000 units for the week too. Expect Wii hardware sales to rise into the 250,000 to 300,000 unit range for the week as the holidays and New Super Mario Bros. continue to reignite interest in the Wii.
|Preliminary Top Twenty Wii Software||Sales||Low End||High End|
|New Super Mario Bros Wii||507,000||456,000||558,000|
|Wii Fit Plus (Game Only)||120,000||108,000||132,000|
|PokePark Wii: Pikachu no Daibouken||94,000||85,000||103,000|
|Wii Sports Resort||86,000||77,000||96,000|
|Taiko no Tatsujin Wii Dodoon to 2 Yome! (Game Only)||52,000||47,000||57,000|
PS3 Software – Last week, PS3 topped 200,000 for the first time in Japan, thanks to the Final Fantasy XIII + PS3 bundle and the holiday shopping season. This week, Final Fantasy XIII (not including bundles) has dropped to just a hair over 200,000 units putting at about a 3/8 attach rate to PS3 in Japan. With the bundle lift mostly gone and Final Fantasy XIII down sharply, PS3 will be down this week despite the holiday season. Besides Final Fantasy XIII, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Winning Eleven, and Assassin's Creed 2 likely topped 5,000 units for the PS3 in the final data - but the preliminary data cut off at 19,000. Expect PS3 hardware sales to fall into the 150,000 to 180,000 unit range for the week.
|Preliminary Top Twenty PS3 Software||Sales||Low End||High End|
|Final Fantasy XIII (Does not FFXIII + PS3 HW bundles)||205,000||184,000||226,000|
X360 Software – No X360 games charted in the preliminary data. Expect Xbox 360 hardware sales to rise into the 8,000 to 12,000 unit range for the week.
PS2 Software – Little Busters! Converted Edition was the only PS2 game to chart this week. The game sold 52,000 units. Expect PS2 hardware sales to rise into the 3,000 to 5,000 unit range for the week.
|Preliminary Top Twenty PS2 Software||Sales||Low End||High End|
|Little Busters! Converted Edition||52,000||47,000||57,000|
PSP Software – Three PSP games charted this week. Phantasy Star Portable 2 and Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam Next both stabilized somewhat from last week, falling to 41,000 and 39,000 units respectively. Naruto Shippuden fell to 19,000 units for the week. Expect PSP hardware sales to rise into the 85,000 to 105,000 unit range for the week.
|Preliminary Top Twenty PSP Software||Sales||Low End||High End|
|Phantasy Star Portable 2||41,000||37,000||45,000|
|Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam Next||39,000||35,000||43,000|
|Naruto Shippuden Narutimate Accel 3||19,000||17,000||21,000|
DS Software – Eight games, across ten skus charted for the DS this week. Despite the release of The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks, June 2009 release Tamodatchi Collection was the best seller for the DS this week. Tamodatchi Collection more than doubled its sales from the previous week, rising to 354,000 units. Zelda in contrast debuted at 294,000 units. Pokemon rose to 155,000 units this week, taking third place on DS. Inazuma Eleven 2 and Professor Layton and the Specter’s Flute both rose to 105,000 units for the week according to the preliminary data. Mario & Sonic 2010 also rose substantially, topping 60,000 for the week. Penguin no Mondai game came in at 42,000 units for the week, an excellent hold from its first week, while the immortal New Super Mario Bros DS rose to 38,000 units for the week several years after its launch. Even on the 29m+ DS base in Japan, NSMB DS maintains a nearly 20% attach rate so it should be interesting to compare the game to the Wii NSMB. Expect DS hardware sales to rise into the 250,000 to 300,000 unit range for the week.
|Preliminary Top Twenty DS Software||Sales||Low End||High End|
|Zelda no Densetsu: Taiyou no Kiteki||294,000||265,000||323,000|
|Layton Kyouju to Majin no Fue||105,000||94,000||116,000|
|Pokemon Soul Silver||86,000||77,000||95,000|
|Pokemon Heart Gold||69,000||62,000||76,000|
|Mario and Sonic at Winter Olympics||61,000||55,000||67,000|
|Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Fire||53,000||48,000||58,000|
|Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Blizzard||52,000||47,000||57,000|
|Pen 1 Grand Prix: Penguin no Mondai Special||42,000||38,000||46,000|
|New Super Mario Bros DS||38,000||34,000||42,000|
Contact Vgchartz at firstname.lastname@example.org