The Japan Preview: 12/27 Edition (FF13 drops 87%, NSMB Wii >500k)

by Jacob Mazel, posted on 27 December 2009 / 14,045 Views

Summary & A Look Ahead:

Even though Final Fantasy XIII dropped off by more than a million units from its launch week, software sales were still enormous in Japan. Final Fantasy games are in fact famous for their drop offs, as Final Fantasy XII for instance dropped over 1.5 million units from week one to week two. DS software in particular showed fairly dramatic increases. If the preliminary data is correct, the DS had five titles top 100,000 in Japan this week – Tamodatchi Collection, Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver, Inazuma Eleven 2 Fire/Blizzard, Layton, and The Legend of Zelda: The Sprit Tracks. Wii also had a strong week, with New Super Mario Bros Wii topping half a million units for another week. Wii Fit Plus also looks like it topped 100,000 for the week. Outside of Wii and DS, the only game to top 100,000 was Final Fantasy XIII.

In addition to the eight titles over 100,000 units for the week, five other titles saw solid success – topping 50,000 units for the week.

Preorders for the near term are relatively quiet. Dragon Quest VI will do well in early 2010 for DS, but it is still too early to predict. Kingdom Hearts on PSP debuts on January 9, and still looks like it can top 400,000 units week one as preorders are near 250,000. The timing of the title should soften the drop of PSP in early January compared to other systems. From the January 4, 2009 to January 11, 2009 week PSP dropped from 165,000 to 68,000. With Kingdom Hearts coming on January 9, the drop may only be 30-50% rather than 55-75%.

Understanding the Japanese Preview:

Rather than saying x game for y platform sold between 20,000 and 28,000 units as in the past, the preliminary data will be broken down into charts by platform. Within these charts, there will two additional categories besides the rounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the left will be ‘low end’ depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold for the week, while to the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highest amount the title likely sold for the week. As always, this data is preliminary, and therefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. The varying platform market share the sample represents is why consistent sellers like Wii Fit do not always appear in the preliminary data. Sales for this report are for the week ending December 27, 2009.

Software by Platform:

Wii Software – New Super Mario Bros. Wii remained enormous this week. The game has topped 500,000 for the third week since it launched and is now owned by one in four Wii users in Japan. Going forward, the question is whether the game is big enough to drive Wii adoption, or whether it will begin to decline once it attaches to 30-40% of Wii users in Japan. Super Mario Bros. 1 ended up at a 35% attach rate on Famicom (6.81m games on the 19.11m Famicom base) in the 1980s, so New Super Mario Bros Wii can certainly sell well for a long time if it fully taps that audience. In second place, Wii Fit Plus (the game only sku) sold 120,000 units up sharply from last week. PokePark and Wii Sports Resort came in at 94,000 and 86,000 units respectively. Taiko 2 (the game only sku) also rose this week, topping 50,000 units. In the final data, Mario Kart Wii, Monster Hunter 3, Samurai Warriors 3, Tales of Graces, Momatarou Dentetsu, Mario & Sonic, Kamen Riders and a few other games likely topped 5,000 units for the week too. Expect Wii hardware sales to rise into the 250,000 to 300,000 unit range for the week as the holidays and New Super Mario Bros. continue to reignite interest in the Wii.

Preliminary Top Twenty Wii Software Sales Low End High End
New Super Mario Bros Wii 507,000 456,000 558,000
Wii Fit Plus (Game Only) 120,000 108,000 132,000
PokePark Wii: Pikachu no Daibouken 94,000 85,000 103,000
Wii Sports Resort 86,000 77,000 96,000
Taiko no Tatsujin Wii Dodoon to 2 Yome! (Game Only) 52,000 47,000 57,000

PS3 Software – Last week, PS3 topped 200,000 for the first time in Japan, thanks to the Final Fantasy XIII + PS3 bundle and the holiday shopping season. This week, Final Fantasy XIII (not including bundles) has dropped to just a hair over 200,000 units putting at about a 3/8 attach rate to PS3 in Japan. With the bundle lift mostly gone and Final Fantasy XIII down sharply, PS3 will be down this week despite the holiday season. Besides Final Fantasy XIII, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Winning Eleven, and Assassin's Creed 2 likely topped 5,000 units for the PS3 in the final data - but the preliminary data cut off at 19,000. Expect PS3 hardware sales to fall into the 150,000 to 180,000 unit range for the week.

Preliminary Top Twenty PS3 Software Sales Low End High End
Final Fantasy XIII (Does not FFXIII + PS3 HW bundles) 205,000 184,000 226,000

X360 Software – No X360 games charted in the preliminary data. Expect Xbox 360 hardware sales to rise into the 8,000 to 12,000 unit range for the week.

PS2 Software – Little Busters! Converted Edition was the only PS2 game to chart this week. The game sold 52,000 units. Expect PS2 hardware sales to rise into the 3,000 to 5,000 unit range for the week.

Preliminary Top Twenty PS2 Software Sales Low End High End
Little Busters! Converted Edition 52,000 47,000 57,000

PSP Software – Three PSP games charted this week. Phantasy Star Portable 2 and Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam Next both stabilized somewhat from last week, falling to 41,000 and 39,000 units respectively. Naruto  Shippuden fell to 19,000 units for the week. Expect PSP hardware sales to rise into the 85,000 to 105,000 unit range for the week.

Preliminary Top Twenty PSP Software Sales Low End High End
Phantasy Star Portable 2 41,000 37,000 45,000
Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam Next 39,000 35,000 43,000
Naruto Shippuden Narutimate Accel 3 19,000 17,000 21,000

DS Software – Eight games, across ten skus charted for the DS this week. Despite the release of The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks, June 2009 release Tamodatchi Collection was the best seller for the DS this week. Tamodatchi Collection more than doubled its sales from the previous week, rising to 354,000 units. Zelda in contrast debuted at 294,000 units. Pokemon rose to 155,000 units this week, taking third place on DS. Inazuma Eleven 2 and Professor Layton and the Specter’s Flute both rose to 105,000 units for the week according to the preliminary data. Mario & Sonic 2010 also rose substantially, topping 60,000 for the week. Penguin no Mondai game came in at 42,000 units for the week, an excellent hold from its first week, while the immortal New Super Mario Bros DS rose to 38,000 units for the week several years after its launch. Even on the 29m+ DS base in Japan, NSMB DS maintains a nearly 20% attach rate so it should be interesting to compare the game to the Wii NSMB. Expect DS hardware sales to rise into the 250,000 to 300,000 unit range for the week.

Preliminary Top Twenty DS Software Sales Low End High End
Tamodatchi Collection 354,000 319,000 389,000
Zelda no Densetsu: Taiyou no Kiteki 294,000 265,000 323,000
Layton Kyouju to Majin no Fue 105,000 94,000 116,000
Pokemon Soul Silver 86,000 77,000 95,000
Pokemon Heart Gold 69,000 62,000 76,000
Mario and Sonic at Winter Olympics 61,000 55,000 67,000
Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Fire 53,000 48,000 58,000
Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Blizzard 52,000 47,000 57,000
Pen 1 Grand Prix: Penguin no Mondai Special 42,000 38,000 46,000
New Super Mario Bros DS 38,000 34,000 42,000

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outlawauron (on 02 January 2010)

@ scottie Even if it was exclusive, it'd still sell over 5 million.

TheSource (on 29 December 2009)

Sobas, I had Wii/DS flat over last week initially and then Brett stealth edited it.

BrandonM (on 29 December 2009)

FFXIII will sell less than 5 Million WW:(

scottie (on 29 December 2009)

LTD worldwide FFXIII will sell much more than 5 million though sep85dd, because it's multiplat now

sep85dd (on 29 December 2009)

Maybe he was telling about LTD Worldwide...

leo-j (on 29 December 2009)

@ph4nt Actually it is suprising, considering alot of people were moving off the FF XIII bundle because it was 400-500 $? @bladeforce Um what? FF games sell 2-3 million at max LTD in japan..

kopstudent89 (on 29 December 2009)

calm down bladeforce anyways great numbers for all, and if PS3 does 180k, it'll be more impressive than a 300k for the Wii for me. A great December for consoles :) And how on Earth does the DS do these numbers when its at 30 million i dont know. Absolutely monstrous

Bladeforce (on 29 December 2009)

lol @ all the "wow ff13 drop" comments. FF games are waay past the days of selling the numbers it used to for weeks on end. It will be lucky to sell 5 million. Now WOW at Wii sales NSMBWii is joining the gaming stellar Gods, it looks down at all the HD games and laughs. 10 million looks conservative!

Zucas (on 29 December 2009)

johnsobas- actually the week that includes Christmas in Japan is usually the peak week in the region. That's what this data is for so not surprising Wii has skyrocketed up. The Wii went down 37% the week after that in 2007 mainly due to shortages. Otherwise usually the week after Christmas in Japan is small decreases or sometimes flat. Then after that week we start to see the fallout from the holiday season.

johnsobas (on 29 December 2009)

i don't really know why the source predicted the wii to rise so much. Last 2 years it hasn't gone up, in 2007 it went down 37%. Granted the weeks don't line up day by day exactly. I would think the wii would be about the same or down slightly. Next week it will probably rise again though.

Makaha (on 28 December 2009)

NSMB is absolutely frightening!!! watch out COD:MW2 it's just a matter of time before it's overtaken WorldWide (both 360 and PS3 total)

Wii_Master (on 28 December 2009)

add me nintendo gamer i m gonna cry to if it scratches the 300k mark in jp alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!jesus christ @ nintendo swimmingin their pool (they use green water or more like thin green bills :p)))))

guiduc (on 28 December 2009)

WTF Tomodachi Collection? That's enormous! Well done, Mario. You showed again you remain the best selling franchise of all time.

heruamon (on 28 December 2009)

Look like 2.5-3 mil LTD for FF13 in Japan...great numbers...I'm not sure about rest ofhte world tho...

dolemit3 (on 28 December 2009)

If Tomodachi Collection will be > FFXIII this week, I will LOL

N.Genckel (on 28 December 2009)

Another Monster franchise is born with Tomodachi. The sales of a massive sleeper hit. Hope that means we'll see it over here.

Galaki (on 28 December 2009)

Who's the mastermind behind Tomodachi?

sep85dd (on 28 December 2009)

Wow, huge drop for FF 13. Tomodachi sales!!! NSMBWii is the Wii game of the year, what the hell, these sales are freaking awesome. Good start for Zelda. Good Sales for Phantasy Star Portable 2 again.

RisenTerran (on 28 December 2009)

Mario is Inhuman !!!! Looks like Whats-his-face at nintendo was right though. NSMBWii > COD on one console.

Nintendogamer (on 28 December 2009)

If Wii does scratch 300K then me and kenology will need some kleenex tissues. Tears of joy by the way.

ph4nt (on 28 December 2009)

@leo-J Final Fantasy games have a big first week and have massive drops off, as seen by this weeks data. The rumor was there were 200k PS3 bundles, the week before PS3 was at ~70k, FF 13 launches and with all the bundles sells over 200k. Now the Ps3 has fallen back down, as it should have, so 150k-180k. Which is still double what it was for FF 13, this is because of seasonal boosts and some additional hardware sold by FF 13 in its second week. NSMB on the other hand released 3 weeks ago and is having a prolonged effect on hadware sales, combined with the seasonal increases, so it's not surprising to see Wii continue to increase.

Kenology (on 28 December 2009)

I'm with Okey on this one... I don't know whether to be more impressed with NSMBWii or Tomodachi Collection. O_o - Final Fantasy had a drop in line with the other games in the series. Should reach 2mil relatively easy. - Decent opening for Spirit Tracks. I hope it'll have bigger legs than Phantom Hourglass. - PokePark has become a nice little hit! - If Wii sales are up to ~300k this week... I'll cry!

SaviorX (on 28 December 2009)

@TheSource If Wii-DS integration is the case for Tamodatchi Collection, it could be helping Wii sales. I never knew the game actually had that crossover aspect. To what extent it could be selling Wiis(????), you wouldn't be able to figure out. At this rate it is a system seller. How you can make one of those after 5 years on the market is beyond me......

RPG_Fanatic (on 28 December 2009)

The sales of Tamodatchi Collection Scare me. Good to see NSMB Wii have such great legs. The Pokemon Wii, and Taiko no Tatsujin Wii, also rose this week.

leo-j (on 28 December 2009)

so the wii goes up in sales, riding on New super mario bros, while the ps3 goes down in sales despite FINAL FANTASY XIII having come out last week, actually no 4 days before this data..

saicho (on 28 December 2009)

how does Nintendo find leggy hits after hits on DS in Japan out of nowhere? It was Rhythm Heaven and Wagamama Fashion last year then this year it has an even bigger hit in Tamodatchi Collection... NSMB Wii and Poke Park are surprises too! not that I didn't expect them to be successfully but they are just way bigger than anyone could have imagined.

Xen (on 28 December 2009)

PS2 not dead! I hope FF XIII can go for 50% usebase through legs!

Blacksaber (on 28 December 2009)

I'm really scared of NSMB and Tamodatchi....

salaminizer (on 28 December 2009)

this Taiko 2 is the same that debuted with very low numbers??

hunter_alien (on 28 December 2009)

KillerMan : you can play ity on any model... even on the 1k ;-) All 55 million PSPs are PSN enabled ;-) Great sales for Tomodachi, NSMBWii and FFXIII had a pretty decent drop :-)

cromeros (on 28 December 2009)

Yes... Yes... Yes... Nintendo WON!!!... Wii won PS3 in Japan... New Super Mario Bros. Wii is Amazing... Very Well for Zeruda no Densetsu Taiyou no Kiteki... It's simply excelent... The Pikachu's game is a great surprise... also Tomodatchi Collection... Nintendo WON!

iron_megalith (on 28 December 2009)

Mario IS huge in galactic proportions as expected. :S FFXIII has an even bigger drop than I expected. I wonder how long will it stay in the top 20.

morenoingrato (on 28 December 2009)

Wow Tamodachi, 300k!! Forget that I said NSMBWii failed in Japan First week, it was below my expectation but great, now with the massive legs, weeeel, awsome

kopstudent89 (on 28 December 2009)

@ Bruno Well probably since Pokemon Red/Blue, nothing comes close to Tomodachi

elzumo (on 28 December 2009)

Nice sales for Level-5's games.

KillerMan (on 28 December 2009)

I wonder how many games are sold for PSP via PSN nowadays (You can play PSN games with 3000 model also If I have unterstood correctly)

Bruno Muñoz (on 28 December 2009)

According to this preview NSMBW has outsold Mario Kart Wii in just 4 weeks, simply amazing. Tomodachi Collection probably has the longest legs I've ever seen in Japan.

ioi (on 28 December 2009)

Personally I'm expecting closer to 300k for Wii and DS this week. Biggest week of the year for Nintendo in Japan

VivaLaWiida (on 28 December 2009)

Wow amazing sales for NSMB but also for Pikachu's Big Adventure. This title ist selling great. I hope it sells 500k+

outlawauron (on 28 December 2009)

@ Vas-y Things get stablize but you'll see a sort of plateau. Hardware sales will not start to fall hard until mid January.

cliffhanger (on 28 December 2009)

NSMBWii is doing amazing. I don't think anybody could have predicted it would be such massive seller. Like BrandonM said, I'm proud of how well it's doing. And it totally deserves it.

Azelover (on 28 December 2009)

Why do people keep using the word insane to describe Nintendo's healthy performance? It's not insane, it's awesome... it's badass.

binary solo (on 28 December 2009)

@PSfanboy: PS3 won't do another million. WE 19/12 is the peak sales week world wide being the last weekend before Christmas. There has never been a year (this gen at least) where the week ending after 25/12 sold more than the week ending prior to Christmas. There is no reason to believe this year will be any different, for any console. Even if PS3 holds its ground, and Wii goes up in Japan.

BrandonM (on 28 December 2009)

I'm so proud of NSMBW, it shows Japan still cares about gaming unlike previous reports:)

Vas-y (on 28 December 2009)

Will this be Japans biggest week or can we assume that next week gets even bigger? I'm not familiar with Japan's holiday season.

kopstudent89 (on 28 December 2009)

wow tomodatchi! I wonder if it will do a "5 milion" in Japan

MirrorWorld (on 28 December 2009)

Japan sells software by the truckloads lol. Massive sales here. Mario is just beasting it out and Tomodachi Collection is sorta mind-breaking.

psfanboy (on 28 December 2009)

they where wrong about the ps3 sales last week.. soo maybe.. ps3 japan 200k?+ the world is another mill for ps3?

Linkasf (on 28 December 2009)

New Super Mario Bros Wii Sure is a bigger hit than most ever thought it would be ;)

Majin-Tenshinhan (on 28 December 2009)

WHAT @ Tomodachi Collection I mean, it's had gigantic legs for some time now, but... 300k?! WOW.

TheSource (on 28 December 2009) It is basically a game that lets you take your Miis from Wii and transfer them to a DS game where they ("you") live in a Sims/Animal Crossing world. What I wonder is if it drives Wii purchases for people who want to interact with little versions of themselves on the road.

famousringo (on 28 December 2009)

To those wondering what Tomodachi Collection is: As I understand it, it's a game in the vein of The Sims or Animal Crossing. Virtual people collecting friends and furniture. Also, it's the fourth-biggest game of the year in Japan. NSMBWii just barely shoved it off the bronze podium to break a DS medal sweep.

--OkeyDokey-- (on 28 December 2009)

I don't know what's more amazing. Tomadatchi sales or NSMB sales O_o What the hell is Tomadatchi Collection anyways?

outlawauron (on 28 December 2009)

Where was that guy who said FF13 was going to drop to under 100k because it was so terrible. This is what's bad about the internet today. With super inquistive forum goer one loudmouth can give the impression that no one likes something.

BrandonM (on 28 December 2009)

Go NSMBW Go!!!!

RolStoppable (on 28 December 2009)

NSMB Wii is performing better than I could hope for. What an amazing game. It truly is gigantic.

Zucas (on 28 December 2009)

yea Tomodatchi sales are kinda scary. Geez I don't really even know what the game is but apparently the Japanese do haha. New Super Mario Bros Wii continues at it's incredible pace and 25% attach rate already. Tough to do with already a pretty large user base. FF13 drop is expected but maybe not as bad as I had thought it would be. Hardware sales will be interesting though.

Arius Dion (on 28 December 2009)

I can't even be amazed any more at NSMB. It's straight up incredible.

-ku- (on 28 December 2009)

See, by the title it looked postive. It seemed FF dropped to 1m+ so between 1 and 1.1 one. But no, no sirry.

atma998 (on 28 December 2009)

Tomodatchi becoming a phenomenon confirmed? Also NSMB Wii sales are insane! Good FFXIII sales too.

FreeTalkLive (on 28 December 2009)

Wow, Nintendo made some serious money in Japan this week.

fwap (on 28 December 2009)

@Galaki According to these figures, in terms of total sales, most likely!

NicholasCage (on 28 December 2009)

Wtf at Tamodatchi. Also PS3 is ~150k this week in Japan, nice. NSMB is crazy...

Galaki (on 28 December 2009)

Why haven't Nintendo brought Tomodachi over to the West? Is Week4 higher than Week3 for NSMBWii?

Sapphire (on 28 December 2009)

LOLWUT Tomodatchi ~300k?! thats super insane!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! nice debut for Zelda Nintendo unstoppable this December

TheSource (on 28 December 2009)

It is a nearly identical debut to Phantom Hourglass (~300k I think). Zelda is more of a western franchise than a Japanese franchise these days. Not really expecting Spirit Tracks to top 1m in Japan.

fwap (on 27 December 2009)

25% of Wii Japan own NSMBW! Wicked.

outlawauron (on 27 December 2009)

A little more this week than I expected for FF13 (I thought 150-200k) but it's a normal FF drop. It should meet my original expectations for it. (2-2.2 million lifetime)

psrock (on 27 December 2009)

I can't tell, but is it a good debut for Zelda or not? Yeah, I don't see FFXIII going to 2.4 million either. But 2 million would be great.

TheSource (on 27 December 2009)

It isn't likely to get to 2.4m in Japan. Something like this: 1.5m-200k-80k-50k-30k-20k-12k-8k-5k and so on. It will crawl to a little past 2m in Japan.

DaBuddahN (on 27 December 2009)

2.4mil life time for FFXIII. In line with FF X-2. PS3 hardware around 180k, not bad. :) PS3 should do about 850k+ next week.

Soriku (on 27 December 2009)

lol at NSMB and Tomodachi. Insane. FF XIII had a normal drop for an FF game.

psrock (on 27 December 2009)

The PS3 is having an amazing three months, but the monster that is the Wii plus NSMB just keep going up. The Wii and December are just amazing together. FFXIII on its on way to 2 million.

MANUELF (on 27 December 2009)

That's a pretty good second week for FF13 and I'm afraid of Tomodachi Collection

Gilgamesh (on 27 December 2009)

Pretty normal drop for a Final Fantasy game, 1.7 million sold if data is correct, should be able to hit 2 million pretty soon.