Pachter: PS4 to Outsell Xbox One, Last Console Generation
by William D'Angelo, posted on 14 November 2013 / 12,190 Views
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has predicted the PlayStation 4 will outsell the Xbox One. The main reason is the price difference and that gamers have no interest in the Kinect.
Pachter said at the London Games Conference, attended by MCVUK, that he believes the PlayStation 4 will sell between 100 million and 120 million units lifetime. He expects the Xbox One to fall short of those figures and sell between 90 million and 110 million units lifetime. He also added that the Wii U will sell 30 million units lifetime.
Pachter did add that if Microsoft drops the price of the Xbox One to match the PlayStation 4 sales may be tied. Also if TV services offer a subsidy on the Xbox One that may help drive sales of the console.
Pachter believes that this is the last console generation and the market will reach an install base between 220 million and 260 million units. To compare, the Wii, Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 have sold 260 million units to date combined according to VGChartz.
"I don't think the console market will get any bigger," said Pachter. "The console installed base has peaked. Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years."
"We have expanded the market beyond the hardcore console owner," he added. "We now have ten times the audience over the internet, six times the audience over mobile. And I think one day you'll get to play any game, anywhere on any device."
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16 Comments
wait, I thought 7th gen would be the last console gen? I predict there will be 9th gen consoles. Maybe not in the classic way, but there will be some sort of hardware. You heard it here first people!
Maybe not in the classic way?? It hasn't been the classic way in oh so many years now. We havent had a dedicated games console since the GCN. Sony's PS1 even broke the classic trend with CD playback.
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I think Microsoft would be completely happy with that result if they sold that many Xbox Ones at $100 more than the PS4. At the low end of those estimates MS would make $6 billion more over the life of the console on the hardware.
Technically not quite due to the cost of the kinect factored into the $100
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Nintendo is already out of the game. I think they have some probabilities to surpass the target of 100 million consoles over life time. Further more, failure rate will play a significant role for both XBOX ONE and PS4.
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Don't know about it being the last generation, but I think in the future PlayStation and X-box will be apps on your smart tv or whatever. Nintendo is old fashioned, they will probably always make some kind of hardware though.
heh genius... between the xbox and xbox 360, the 'brand' as you put it, is already over 100 million sold.
your comment could't be anymore wrong than it already is.
nicely done.
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Your comment is akin to a Detroit Lions fan responding to a taunt of "The Lions will never win more than one game in the playoffs" by saying "Well, we've won TWO games in the playoffs over our entire team history!"
He's obviously talking about a specific console generation.
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heh second genius... if he were talking about a specific console generation than maybe he should have named one.
I guess where you come from If someone says, the Chevy 'brand' they must be talking about the Corvette right?
I mean, obviously.
Also, I'm no Detroit Lions fan, but I'm happy to inform you they've won the NFL Championship quite a few times.. you know.. by getting through the playoffs and all.
Once again, another comment that couldn't be more off the mark.
You two should team up.
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Shut your mouth you piece of shit. Xbox One has all the games people wanna play. Ryse, Dead Rising 3, Forza 5 and Killer Instinct at launch. What has PS4 got? Just Killpzone which got crap reviews. Go home Gaystation 4 YOU SUCK! AND YOU KNOW IT!!! :D
~Mod Edit~
This post has been moderated.
-Smeags
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The XB1 will sell 90% as many units as the PS4? That seems way too high to me. My impression was that XB1 will do about ~70% as well as the PS4 based on next-gen game pre-orders. Also, 360 and PS3 sales total around 160 million after 8 years. If XB1 and PS4 do 190 to 230 million units in the same amount of time that will be a substantial increase and will make a real difference for game sales. I still have a faint hope though that this generation will be a year or two shorter than the last.
The only way XB1 may sell more than the ps4 is when they hit a new market. Like the nintendo did with the wii. Nintendo lost that audience, so if MS plays into that the xb1 may be the next wii.
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Wii U and Xbox One - 35-40million. PS4 - 40-50 million. This generation is going to be a lot smaller. The general public wont see the graphical leap that the hardcore do, and in turn wont think it's worth the investment. Also there will be a 9th generation. A 10th and 11th as well. Console gaming will always have a dedicated fan base no matter how niche it gets.
and whats going to replace consoles? tablets? micro-lag consoles? pffftt
the WiiU with 30 million units seems unlikely in a scenario where the One and Ps4 get this kind of sucess, the WiiU sucess depends on the lack of hability to impress in the part of the next gen consoles, if they reing, it will fail really hard.
The console market would be getting bigger should playstation lead. It has supporters who would market it by word of mouth. There are emerging markets for the consoles like china and africa.
"Pachter believes that this is the last console generation and the market will reach an install base between 220 million and 260 million units. To compare, the Wii, Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 have sold 260 million units to date combined according to VGChartz. "I don't think the console market will get any bigger," said Pachter. "The console installed base has peaked. Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years." I've been saying this for months. Though I was predicting Wii U to hit about 50 or 60 million and PS4bone to do about 90 million each. I think 120 million for PS4 is too ambitious as is 100 million for Xb one.
Well, it's Pachter. Let me pull some numbers out of my own ass... Xbox will not take the lead in America as it has with the 360. The gap in Europe and Japan will not lessen so Ps4 will take the lead and keep it. Even with the same price. I'd say 90 vs 65 million before next gen. Yes, next gen.
If he is correct and MS sells 90M @ $499 and PS4 sells 100M @ $399. MS will make $5B more in revenues with a lower base.
I agree that this is likely to be the last console generation. The next generation might have the same companies, but I think the format will be quite different. I expect cloud gaming with perhaps only controllers to purchase, hardware built into TVs, or some other business model.
I believe in PS4 and Wii U predictions, but XBone will never achieve 90 million... Never!
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said the same guy that gets 100% everything wrong. in fact i will quote him "the wii will be a massive failure and the ps3 will win the generation" the facts is the wii won the genereation and the ps3 came in last. now hes saying the wii u will be last and the ps4 will win this gen. well hmmm sorry that spells disaster.
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I think the Wii U numbers are slightly too low for lifetime. I'm thinking closer to 50 million lifetime. As for PS4 vs XB1 we will just have to wait and see. I'm pretty sure the PS4 will get a head start out of the gate though.
Look at the Gamecube and N64 numbers, they sold 20-30 million too and had the exact same problems as the Wii U like lack of third party support. Those who think that
paying 300$ is reasonable for something that only have some first party would have to be die hard fans.
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i think all three consoles are gonna end up at about 50 million unless alot of ps4 and xbone owners buys a second console which would end up being wii u because of the exclusive games made for it. i really doubt this is the last console generation and that is what they said about last gen.
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