Pachter: MMO Subscriptions have Peaked - News
by William D'Angelo , posted on 10 July 2012 / 5,268 Views
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter believes that MMO subscriptions have reached their peak according to PCGamesN. He believes that there are only six to seven million people who are willing to spend $15 per month.
"I thought Star Wars: The Old Republic would make it big, but it didn’t," said Pachter. "It looks like subscription MMOs are as big as they're going to get - there are only 6-7 million people willing to spend $15 a month. If Star Wars couldn’t do it, made by Bioware, then no one can do it."
Pachter talking with EA CEO John Riccitiello also explained why no one is buying EA stock. "I had lunch with John at EA. He asked why no-one’s buying stock. I told him: 'the reason your stock is in the toilet is because you’re in the fifth year of a three year turn around.' He said, 'I thought new consoles would be out around 2010-2011.'"
Wargaming.net CEO victor Kislyi has a similar sentiment. "Name one game apart from World of Warcraft with a subscription that is doing well," Victor questioned. "Only a few names spring to mind. EVE Online? Star Wars: The Old Republic? You can have a huge sci-fi license with the biggest budget of any game, and what do you get? No success. It’s dying off. I think subscription tops the list of problems."
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F2P is actually the best way to go imo. You'd be surprised at how many people are willing to buy a costume or weapon skin for a relatively cheap price. All those little "microtransactions" add up over time. Some people will honestly sit down and buy $60 worth of things at one time. Also, F2P=More players, which is good for the game and for profits as well. Lotro and Dc universe both raised their playerbase and profit to insanely high levels when switching to a F2P model.
F2P is great if done correctly. F2P doesn't have to be "Pay 2 win". As long as items sold are purely aesthetic or offer no real advantage to non paying members then all is well. Guild Wars 2 is probably the most anticipated MMO at the moment, and they are using a F2P model with only consumables (potions) and aesthetic skins.
Back in the 90's there was a genuine reason to charge a subscription fee (To keep the servers up) Nowadays though, the only reason companies charge money is because we let them get away with it.
The reason for this is every big MMO tries to be WoW. One can only play so many WoW clones before it gets boring. SWtOR failed because it played more like a co-op RPG with WoW mechanics than a real MMO.
"I thought new consoles would be out around 2010-2011."
Wait, does EA's CEO believe that higher development costs will raise stock prices and help their bottom line? Everyday I gather more evidence that I live in Bizarro World.
EVE, year over year growth since 2003.
I still haven't tried EVE, but did try the Dust 514 beta today and I can say it is a competent shooter with substandard graphics... but it has a whole bunch of complex layers of customization and bigger picture stuff that could be going on and that is intriguing.
I am probably going to look into the PC EVE and see if I can aclamate into whats going on better. It doesn't seem that easy to get into on the Dust 514 side.
I think for once, Pachter is right. But don't bombard me with tomatoes yet;
MMO subscriptions probably have peaked, meaning they will only go down from here. The genre won't crash and burn all of a sudden, but it won't grow anymore. World of Warcraft was the peak.
Personally I think WoW's main factor for success was that it was one of the first, and arguably the first big one. This increased interest for the game greatly, and people were willing to pay for something new. If Star Wars The Old Republic was first and WoW second, the roles and sales figures would likely have been reversed.
The fact that a big game like SWToR couldn't replicate the success should be proof that the genre indeed is in decline, at least in the current form. People don't want to pay extra anymore for an experience that is by now already known. Nevertheless we should wait for the performance of a couple more to pass final judgement.
Funny, because Final Fantasy XI is still kicking after a decade, and it's the most profitable Final Fantasy title. Note: I said PROFIT, not revenue. There's a difference people. Profit is the one that actually matters.
Well, WoW has 10.2 mil subbed and Star Wars at least 1 million. I think his 6-7 million is off base...
Star was didn't do good because its a terrible game....
Star wars is not a terrible game. The combat for example is much better than WoW's. The problem were the expectation players put on it, where they expected all that WoW managed to build with 8 years of subs on day one.
""I thought Star Wars: The Old Republic would make it big, but it didn’t," said Pachter. "It looks like subscription MMOs are as big as they're going to get - there are only 6-7 million people willing to spend $15 a month. If Star Wars couldn’t do it, made by Bioware, then no one can do it."
Blizzard? lol XD
Final Fantasy XI is still doing good with subs. It's not as popular as it was say a few years ago, but interest will revitalize when the new expansion comes out.
