An Early Look at How Launch Software Will Perform for Vita in Japan - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 17 December 2011 / 9,972 Views
Sony is reportedly set to ship 700,000 Vitas to Japan week one. For software, a typical sell through figure is 60% of the initial shipment in week one - so we could be looking at a 400,000+ week one for Vita - although significant potential exists for the figures to be both much lower or far higher.
Preorders for Vita games are not particularly strong on the eve of launch. The top Vita games have only about 20,000-25,000 preorders through December 16. Typically launch software attaches to 20-30% of new hardware, although in the case of Vita it looks like a broad range of games will attain decent, but not enormous week one numbers. There certainly does not appear to be a huge killer-app for the hardware week one based on preorders numbers. Without any "base" to speak of yet though, there is a slim possibility that the ratio of week one sales to final preorders will be far higher than usual as the base literally goes from not existing to existing.
That said, Vita preorders are the following levels:
Uncharted Vita - 23,000 preorders --> Normal trends indicate a 40,000 - 60,000 week one barring a catastrophe on the hardware front.
Hot Shots Golf Vita - 22,000 ---> Look for a 50,000 - 70,000 week one as this is a title that sells strongly with hardware.
Disgaea - 17,000 ---> Look for a 25,000 - 35,000 week one.
Dynasty Warriors - 16,000 --> Same as Disgaea, possibly a touch lower.
These four games should sell around 170,000 units week one on Vita. With several other games launching, and the sheer volume of hardware, total Vita software sales could be anywhere from 250,000 - 500,000 for the week, particularly with over 20 games launching week one.
As Vita has non-gaming functionality, and PSP backwards compatibility there is not going to be any massive, instant decline for PSP software in week one - although PSP hardware will slow very quickly immediately (which initially means not reaching huge numbers in late Dec / early Jan) and begin collapsing as a software market early in 2012, as DS did earlier in April 2011. Once Vita reaches a critical 2-3m base in Japan (likely April-June 2012) the remaining support for the declining PSP should vanish almost overnight.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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250k - 500k SW, what so potentially hundreds of thousands of people are going to buy a Vita and no games?
After seeing the Type-0 and Monster Hunter comparison images, I wouldn't be surprised if PSP PSN titles start to sell huge numbers as the PSP games look so much better on Vita.
And that is another factor. Vita will have a digital store day one. PSP didn't get a store til the system had basically died in everywhere except Japan. Making companies less willing to spend any resources to bring their games to the PStore.
I thought Vita wasn't backward compatible. Are these PSP games download titles? If so VGC doesn't show that data.
@pezus: over at the official thread :D
and I agree. with psv Sony are launching all games both digitally and physically at the same time hence I wouldn't be surprised if they did some impressive numbers digitally. I hope sony will eventually release figures. also
Best article ive read here in a long time! Vita sales are fantastic, way more than i predicted.
I don't have much hope for the Vita. The whole imaginary little "fanboy war" between the Vita and 3DS is pretty much the same scenario of the PSP and DS all over again. 3DS will sell more and have more games, but have worse hardware. Sony fanboys will continually defend the Vita's hardware, which is nothing more than that - Just hardware. Hardware without good software is useless, and if it's "good" hardware, which from what I understand, the Vita's hardware is generally considered "good" for a handheld, guess what? That just means people that buy it will be paying more. That's all it does.
I'll probably get one in the same way I got my PSP Go - I'll wait for 3-5 years or so, buy the latest / best version, and mod it. I'm just not excited enough to buy something that probably isn't going to have many games. I mean I'd rather have the cheap thing with games than the expensive thing with no games.
I wouldn't be surprised to see alot of consumers buying games off PSN since the games are apparently cheaper on PSN then at retailers. As such don't expect VGChartz to show huge software sales.
I'm surprised Uncharted isn't more popular. Didn't UC2 and 3 fair well with Japanese gamers? Guess that will likely be the hot game for American and European gamers come 2012.
Errr isn't the psp retro only partial depending on agreement of devs and subject to a fee for each game?
I wouldn't call that a selling point ^^, more a compromise.
I just want to know how the sales are doing in Japan. . .I guess we will figure out in a couple days where a given, but not approximate, amount is released.
The Vita needs a killer app. It won't get by on volume alone.
It needs that one game that will make people buy the system.
that's true, and Sony must be very happy if they sell 500-600k at launch
In the West I believe Uncharted will do this job, its just that the series is not that popular in Japan.
You are mistaken since Sony have learned from their mistakes this time. They will make better games from the beginning and get the biggest companies onboard early on this time. The machine has touch screen and pad that people will love. I own a DS and a 3DS and the 3DS isn't the BIG step up it should have been. It still struggles online and the Nintendo shop sucks. PSVita will nail the online and store possibilities better and faster than Nintendo and I really believe that Vita will win lifetime against Nintendo even though nintendo have the BIGGEST mascotts and titles in the market.
Sad to see so many people ignoring the fact we won't know real software sales simply because of PSN, all games are available since day one on Playstation Store, so a preview like this is pretty much useless (another sad thing). Hopefully Sony will share first week sales of PSN titles.
So you can keep buying PSP games for your Vita while waiting for more Vita games, or sell your old PSP console but keep the games? Nice.
good sales for ps vita
