Analyst: Grand Theft Auto V to Top 25m in First Year - News

by William D'Angelo , posted on 25 September 2013 / 9,623 Views

Grand Theft Auto V has already set a record for biggest opening in gaming history selling 16 million units in just five days and topping $1.15 billion. Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz has told Computer and Video Games that he expects the game to sell 25 million units in its first year.

"For a game to sell 60 per cent of its first year units in just three days would be abnormally high, said Creutz. "We esteem that Call of Duty sells about 45 to 50 per cent of its first year units in its first week at retail."

"However, for now we are assuming that GTA V sales will be extremely front-loaded due to high gamer anticipation, and will also have a shorter sales tail given the launch of next-gen consoles in November."

Grand Theft Auto V took in $800 million in its first day, selling 11 million units. First week sales nearly tripled that of Grand Theft Auto IV in 2008.

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vodkasosa1000 (on 25 September 2013)

gta beats everything

shikamaru317 (on 25 September 2013)

I think it may even top 30m, especially if they eventually release PC and next-gen versions.

  • -6
shikamaru317 (on 25 September 2013)

They said that it's not coming to PS4 and Xbox One, but think about it, if they let on now that next-gen versions were coming, some people would wait and Rockstar wouldn't be able to sell 2 copies to them instead of 1. I think you're underestimating the number of gamers that would buy a copy on current-gen now and then buy a 2nd copy in a few months on their next-gen platform of choice. Afterall, if they're already making a PC port, and all signs say that they are including the leakfrom Nvidia, PS4 and Xbox One ports will be a fairly simple matter due to shared x86 architecture, considerable sales from minimal development effort is always a win. Also, they've suggested that they want GTA Online to last for years to come, but can it really do that on last-gen consoles, when neither next-gen console is backwards compatible?

  • +2
ListerOfSmeg (on 25 September 2013)

I think you are just dreaming honestly and overstating the number of people that would buy the game twice.
Of course GTA online can last for years without next gen. Not everyone is going to upgrade dude. Silly assumptions and wishful thinking in the fact of reality.

  • -3
shikamaru317 (on 25 September 2013)

I'd be willing to bet my bottom dollar that PS4 and Xbox One versions would sell at least a million copies each, possibly a few million apiece (just look at Call of Duty: Ghosts, it's already at 500,000 next gen preorders in the US alone, and GTA will more than likely sell more copies overall than Ghosts). That's alot of money at $60 per game, considering the relatively minimal amount of effort it would take to port it to Xbox One and PS4 if a PC version is indeed being made due to the similarities in architecture. We're talking about something like less than $2 million in porting costs versus over $100 million in sales. Rockstar would be foolish to pass that up.

I think you're underestimating the number of people that are going to upgrade to the PS4 and Xbox One, both are outpacing their predecessors' preorder numbers by a considerable margin, and last gen both the 360 and PS3 hit over 7.9 million in first year sales, so if the PS4 and Xbox One continue to outpace their predecessors you can expect first year sales over 10 million for each. I think next gen is going to have far more early adopters than previous generations due to how long Sony and Microsoft milked this gen (7-8 years compared to the generation average of about 5.5 years).

  • +2
daredevil.shark (on 25 September 2013)

It will top 30 million, if we count digital versions.

  • 0
Hercz (on 26 September 2013)

GTA5 will definitely reach 30mil in about 4-6 months. GTA4 sold 27mil, & people called that a "flop", when COD took 7 years to start selling 20mil, while GTA series was constantly breaking records on PS2/PSP in the early 2000's. GTA5 might sell at least 40mil, shit, it's not impossible, 4mil under 20mil in 5 days, & by nxt week, GTA5 will be at 20mil, or past 20mil. COD couldn't do this 4 consecutive years, but it's more popular.

  • 0
binary solo (on 26 September 2013)

I do hope it ends up being the best selling game for PS360, if only to knock FPS off it's perch. Unfortunately nothing will stop FPS taking 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th for PS360, unless Kinect Adventures can do it single handedly through X360, if it sells a couple more million, to take 5th spot.