Analyst Predicts Switch 2 to Sell 13 Million by the End of 2025 - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 06 June 2025 / 7,816 Views
Ampere Analysis has predicted Nintendo will sell 13 million Switch 2 consoles by the end of the year.
"Initial sales of the Switch 2 are expected to be slightly ahead of the original Switch due to pent up demand from existing Switch users," reads the report.
In the long run Ampere Analysis expects the Switch 2 to fall behind the original Switch with 104 million Switch 2 units sold by 2030. This compares to 120 million for the original Switch in a similar time frame, which had a boost in sales during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nintendo's active install base market share is expected to grow to nearly 50 percent by 2027 as the gaming industry waits for the next PlayStation and Xbox to release.
An active user install for the original Switch and Switch 2 are expected to reach nearly 130 million by the end of 2026 and a peak of over 130 million in 2028.
Early adopters of the Switch 2 are expected over $2 billion on software in 2025 alone with a chance of topping $7 billion to $8 billion over the next two years.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can follow the author on Bluesky.
More Articles
Definitely doable if the stock is available.
Nintendo forecast said 15m for the whole FY, so this would match up to that.
So the ps5 is easily going to outsell it this year, at least in europe that 100€ discount is doing wonders
Well it's the first year, it's not gonna be the peak year
It’d likely be a little bit over Nintendo’s projection (3-4mil Q4 => 16-17mil).
Well there are stacks and stacks of switch2 available to buy here in holland media markt etc.
Verry curious how many nintendo shipped
My prediction is around 13-15mil. IDK maybe i’ve got some biases, but that’s how I’m feeling.
I think thats too optimistic a projection personally but we'll see how it all plays out once SW2 supply is available for walk in customers
What is your reasoning for that?
Imo, i see a lot of potential reasons why switch 2 wont be as successful as switch 1. Higher (console games and accessories) prices many consumers out. Nintendo is known as the budget gaming option. That may have ended now for good and i'll be shocked if there isnt some sort of response. Nintendo tends to have on/off sales with each console release. If the prior console sold well the next doesnt etc. I think in general its hard to make the same lightning strike twice. It'll take too long to type it all out but imo novelty of the switch isnt there for switch 2, at least not to the same extent. There's more reasons but this comment is getting long and typing on my phone sucks but im not fully convinced atm that the same volume of casual audience that bought the switch will buy the switch 2 right now, but we'll see how it all turns out. I think 2026 and 2027 will give a good idea of what rough lifetime performance will look like
My wife walked into our local Target this morning and bought a SW2 lol
Seems to be variable depending on your location. I was able to secure a Switch 2 from a Gamestop on June 4 (paid for it and went to the midnight launch), after calling a couple of others who were out and being told that this store had some extra stock, but all the stores in my area are currently out of stock. In other areas, they seem to have plenty of stock.
That sounds impossible where im at lol. It was preorder or good luck next time
PS5 wasn't good for walk ins for 3 years.
Covid definitely prevented that. Idk about 3 years, especially where im located but as one user mentioned, it seems to vary based on location. Its sold out everywhere near me and im in one of the USA's lagest cities
in 2022 you still could only really get it from Sony Direct. How I got mine and even that was after winning a lottery to get a chance to. 2023 I believe is when that finally went away.
