Analysts Forecast Switch 2 Supply to Hit 6 to 8 Million by Launch - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 24 April 2025 / 5,824 Views
The Nintendo Switch 2 is looking like it might smash records when it launches in June.
Analysts have forecasted Nintendo will be able to produce between six million and eight million units of the Nintendo Switch 2 by the time it launches, according to Bloomberg.
This would be well ahead of the shipment record for a first quarter set by the PS5 and PS4, which saw shipment figures of 4.5 million units each.
Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa this week did reveal that over 2.2 million people in Japan submitted applications the My Nintendo Store Switch 2 pre-order lottery, which far exceeded expectations.
Pelham Smithers Associates, a Japan equity research company, stated, "As Japan accounts for a third of the global Switch installation base, it implies 6.6 million pre-orders globally."
MST Financial's David Gibson added, "JP represents 36.8m of 150.9m Switch shipped, which is 24%. Hence its possible the 2.2m in Japan pre-orders is sign the demand is 9m+ globally for the launch."
The PS5 currently holds the record for biggest launch month sales with 2.76 million units sold to consumers in November 2020, according to VGChartz estimates. The Nintendo Switch sold an estimated 2.33 million units in its first month, followed by the PS4 with 2.14 million units sold. The Xbox Series X|S managed to sell 1.69 million and the Xbox One 1.57 million units.
The Nintendo Switch 2 will launch on Thursday, June 5 for $449.99 USD / $629.99 CAD / £395.99 / €469.99 / 49,800 yen. A Mario Kart World Bundle will also be available for $499.99 USD / $699.99 / £429.99 / €509.99 / 53,980 yen.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can contact the author on Bluesky.
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But some peoples from X and from Youtube said Switch 2 will be the new Wii U.... right? ;P
dRoP tHe pRiCe!!!
As of this quarter, the wii u has still outsold the switch 2 by 12 million units. It's gonna need a price cut to compete.
Sales will depend on Nintendo's production and shipment capacity, but I predict over 7 million!
That's a lot of units if it turns out to be right.
this will slow down scalper profits
Some of these comments lately have some serious ātHe cLiFfā vibes.
Are we just going to ignore that 2.2 million pre order applications isn't the same thing as 2.2 confirmed successful pre-orders?
True, and we should not assume Japans switch 2 pre-order numbers will translate globally either.
Its one country... from 1 preorder location
Thats crazy impressive no matter how you look at it
With that said,
Nearly every console sells out at launch WiiU and Xbox One included
3, 6, and 12 months are the real indicator
People aren't going to pay $80 for games, but they will pay $50. The bundle will carry Nintendo into the fall.
Hopefully they're right.
It's cheaper in Japan, you can't use them as a parameter, my guess is there are about 5 million pre-orders globally..
From what Iāve heard, while NSW2 JP price does convert to $330USD, it really isnāt much more affordable for the Japanese. Something to do with weak a weak yen and a poor economy causing wages to not be able to match U.S. wagesā¦? Somebody else would need back this claim. IDK much about JP economics.
The Wii and the Switch were also much cheaper in Japan than everywhere else.
The thing is, Nintendo probably wants to ship as many units outside of Japan as possible since they make far more money on a console sold in, say, the US than in Japan.
Switch 1 is cheaper there, New OLED version costs 38,000 Yen, around $266 USD.
Still, can't understand a reason why not use them as a parameter.
Japan is Nintendo's strongest market, it's also where you can get a Switch 2 cheaper than anywhere else. I do believe they will run into a similar issue with the Switch 2 as they did with the Wii U unless they really show off how this is different and not just an "enhanced" Switch for $449.
When i was working video game retail around the launch of the Wii U, that was the biggest concern Nintendo faced. And the Switch 2, looks like an "enhanced" Switch 1.
The name Wii U didn't indicate succession but instead was arguably interpreted as an accessory. The addition of a numerical figure in the Switch 2s name aligns with what consumers have been conditioned to interpret as a successor device. So I don't think Switch 2 will create the same confusion amongst customers.
Nintendo have made a valiant effort through their marketing and their game boxes to make a clear distinction across the board
People put too much focus on the accessory misunderstanding. Yes, that's what the initial presentation made people think, but a year in everybody already knew it's a new console, and still almost nobody wanted it. The name and miscommunication have costed them a couple millions sales, maybe 10, but not 87. There were many reasons why Wii U failed, bad branding was just the tip of the iceberg.
The accessory misunderstanding was bigger than you think. Even people i know who play games thought it was just a peripheral since Nintendo focused mostly on the tablet in all the marketing. It makes sense people thought that since the Wii was home to all sorts of gimicky peripherals (balance board, the drawing pad, etc).
It was much more than just the branding of the Wii U that failed that system for sure. However, most consumers won't look deeper than the surface of something to make up their mind. It's literally a point that would come up countless times back in 2012 to 2014 with the Wii U. And with the Switch 2, it looks like a Switch.
You have to understand the people who made the Wii successful were casual non-gamers buying their first video game console. After people got tired of Wii Sports and Wii Fit, they put their Wiis away and never touched them again.
(random, but i do not believe the word valiant is being used correctly here. According to Google, valiant is defined as: āpossessing or showing courage or determination.ā)
ā¦Iām sorry, I am very picky with the words ppl use lol.
Valiant can also refer to a dogged determination in the face of a difficult task or situation. With the adoption of a numerical and conformative naming convention for the console for the 1st time in their history, their attempt to highlight distinction from Switch 1 with the extreme Switch 2 game case design with its oversized block of red, the red game cards, the emphasis given on highlighting its a machine of succession in the January and April Directs and the Welcome Tour game highlighting the defining features of this new hardware I would consider Nintendo's efforts to communicate succession and distinction as valiant.
where are you getting that definition from? OED, Merriam, and Google all define valiant with a positive (not dogged) connotation. Alsoā¦that still doesnāt explain how valiant is at all applicable here lol. Thereās nothing ācourageousā nor ābraveā about Nintendo following an industry standard. This is the safest route they couldāve possibly taken.
It doesn't have to be courageous. That's your misconception based on an understanding that stretched to only one definition.
Valiant according to the Collins dictionary can also mean:
-
resolute; determined
E.g made a valiant effort
My understanding encompassed that additional definition, hence why I correctly used the word in the manner I did.
You learn something new everyday as you can now testify.
lol i know im being very obnoxious (but i love academic stuff!). That definition āresolute; determinedā still doesnāt support the ādoggedā definition you provided. Both of those terms have positive connotation; neither imply anything dogged.
Both refer to a strong level of determination. You gotta let this one go bro. You win some you lose some lol
brother, you win some you lose some? What is there to lose and gain? Your definition is incorrect: you never cited any evidence of āvaliantā referring toward //dogged// determinism. I agree that valiance can be used to indicate a strong level of determination; I disagree that it refers to stubbornness (i.e. negative connotation determination), as the word ādoggedā would imply here.
You have still yet to explain how Nintendo following an industry standard is at all ācourageousā or āmarked by determination.ā
Exactly my point. Youve obnoxiously and unnecessarily nitpicked at a single word in a post that was perfectly clear in sentiment and thus turned this into an opportunity to stroke your ego. Except for the fact that you were absolutely wrong lol.
Dogged by definition doesnt have to have a negative connotation. Again thats you taking the narrow understanding you have of a word and thinking thats all that there is.
The Cambridge dictionary cites the definition of dogged as:
"very determined to continue doing something, or trying to do something, even when this is difficult or takes a long time"
Thus demonstrating your assertion that it can only have a negative connotation is in fact a fallacy.
With that fallacy conclusively established, my use of valiant as a reference to Nintendos strong determination is entirely acceptable.
"You have still yet to explain how Nintendo following an industry standard is at all ācourageousā or āmarked by determination.ā
Errm....you seem to have forgotten that as aforementioned valiant doesnt have to refer to courage, it can simply refer to strong determination. I outlined above the concerted efforts Nintendo had made in order to establish succession and distinction. Feel free to scroll up to jog your memory
To sum things up the problem here was you thinking your understanding was infallible and encompassed the full scope of these words. As i have shown with the words valiant and dogged that is false.
Thanks for your time.
Cambridge is not a scholarly resource; itās intended as a casual reference for broad glimpses into meaning. This should be very clear by the plastered ads all over the siteā¦in any case, dogged is defined with negative connotation according to every definition provided on OED (which, I should add, is generally considered by linguists to be the authoritative source on English language). Words are relatively precise in their definitions, so you need be more careful not choosing from unreliable sources.
also, my motive has less to do with ego, and more to do with my passion for academic things. Whenever i see an excuse to talk aboutāin this instanceādefinitions, Iāll jump at the opportunity. (however, your bombastic language leads me to believe maybe thereās an extent of projection going on here lol. I think youāre upset I called you out for using a word incorrectlyā¦which, i mean, thatās fair. Itās kinda a mean thing for me to do in hindsight. Iām sorry about that.)
Both the Oxford and Cambridge dictionaries are regarded as reliable resources academically:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tv6_qpRrURc
Until you have a range of academic sources you can link to that highlight the unreliability of the Cambridge Dictionary then your unsupported assertion is redundant.
Nevertheless the Oxford English dictionary also gives the definition of valiant as being both sturdy and resilient in something:
"II.8. Of a thing: firm, sturdy, resilient. Now rare"
It highlights that this use is not as common these days, which is probably why you werent aware of it, but said definition aligns with Cambridge dictionary highlighting that to be valiant can also mean to be strongly determined in something.
There is no getting around this. You had an understanding that you thought was the be all and end all and that just wasnt the case as ive highlighted.
Unless my use of the word entirely changed the sentiment of my post, or lent it a completely different meaning, then your intervention was both obnoxious and unnecessary. Karma has also seen said intervention end up being fallacious as well.
Use today's interaction to guide against such Karen like activity in the future.
brother Scoopz, why on earth are you linking a YT video with 15 views as your evidence toward Cambridge being reliable? If you want evidence of OED over Cambridge, simply see: https://academia.stackexchange.com/questions/27769/is-there-a-standard-dictionary-for-referencing-english-words. StackExchange is a (strictly moderated) āsocial mediaā page for people in academia (e.g. PhD students, professors, etc.). They cite OED as the āgold standardā with all else paling in comparison. No mention of Cambridge outside of OP.
āredundantā? I think the word youāre looking for is āungroundedā or ābaseless.ā Redundant generally refers (informally) to something which is unnecessary or needlessly repetitive.
also, if you knew how to use OED, youād recognize the meaning of ārare.ā at the end of that definition you cite: That means almost entirely obsolete, though you may come across it very rarely. Such a definition wouldnāt make sense to cite in almost all instances. And again, I never disputed that valiant refers to something which is āsturdyā or āresilientā; neither of those are inherently negative nor āstubbornā in meaning.
anywhoooā¦.i aint gonna engage any further. Mr Scoopz, you shoulda been a bit less bombastic with your language. When you donāt have a solid grasp on the definition of a word you use, then best not to use it, o/w ppl like me will be like āValiant?? Is this correct? Or did he mean to use a different word?ā
A load of waffle in lieu of a counter argument of substance.
None of that stack exchange discourse highlighted Cambridge dictionary as an unreliable source, just that the opinion of these people of unknown credentials is that OED is the best source for definitions. Thats different. So your inclusion of this link has failed in proving your assertion. Back to the drawing board....
A definition not being as common in its use does not equate to a definition being false or not being valid as per another one of your fallacious assertions. You tried it, but now you stand corrected.
"Redundant" as in having no use and being entirely unnecessary was the appropriate term for your assertions and was chosen intentionally and appropriately.
So to sum it up, you put your Karen bonnet on and decided to engage in an obnoxious manner, that was entirely off topic and unhelpful to the discourse. What made it worse was your correction was absolutely wrong.
When shown to be wrong via sources, you attempted to discredit said sources and have failed on that front as well.
Just not a good day for you FB was it? Log off and reflect on your irksome behaviour and then do better tomorrow.
im gonna start calling you mr bombastic, Scoopz, bāc you are very bombastic in your langauge. (and to be explicit: im just messing with you at this point when I call you Mr. Bombastic lol. No ill intentions, friend! :) )
I was way too effective in debunking you for that to be a fitting moniker, but if thats your form of copium i'll take one for the team. Hows that sound Busybody? š
(Busybody??) and you should look up Mr. Bombastic on Google.
I happen to be familiar with the meaning, im a well read guy, which is likely why i knew the full scope of the meaning of valiant and you well...didnt. Im quite sure many onlookers would deem both bombastic and busybody as more fitting names for you funnily enough.
Werent you disengaging? It seems those busybody tendencies will not be denied. š
Mr Bombastic is a character from some animated kids movie from like 2006. This requires no readings; you sit and watch the movie. Anywhooo, yes im ādisengagingā from an internet argument lol. I encourage you to do the same. Itās only fun up until a certain point.
Relax with the aggressive tone. You can articulate your points effectively without degenerating to this nonsense.
Furthermore its not diehard fans that make or break a console. Its the casual customers. The type who would be confused by poor marketing. The Nintendo consumers you speak of were likely the 13.5 million people who bought but couldnt save the Wii U.
Doesn't every new PlayStation look like an enhanced previous PlayStation as well?
Not really. The PS2 didn't look like the PS1, nor did the PS3 look like the PS2, or the PS4 look like the PS3, and the PS5 certainly doesn't look like the PS4.
It's not about the "look" of a console. It's about what the new console offers compared to the previous one. Even the current PS5 controller is basically a Dual Shock 1 with all the same basic buttons.
No. Every PlayStation has a drastically different design to them. Sure the PSOne, the PS2 Slimline, the PS3 Slim and Super Slim, PS4 and PS5 Pro all make changes to that current respective generation, but they aren't being billed as a "brand new generation" either. They are meant to be "enhanced" versions of the same tech.
But the PS2 was completely different from the PlayStation. Just like the PS3, PS4, PS5 are all very different from the predecessor. Same thing with the Xbox, at least every new generation of Xbox looks different from the last. Just their naming conventions are terrible.
It's not about the design of the console. The original comment was about that Switch 2 is more like an enhanced Switch 1. From a tech point and how a new Sony console offers a new gaming experience, it's also more like an enhanced version of the previous generation.
My point was that people are complaining about Nintendo for being not innovative anymore, but Sony nor Microsoft are neither.
I'm the one who said the "original comment". The point I was making is that the Switch 2 looks like a "pro" model for the original Switch. Which is the same issue they've run into in the past. The mainstream consumer is going to see the S2 priced at $449 and say no. Because it just looks like an "enhanced" Switch 1. Just like the PS4 Pro and PS5 Pro didn't blow the charts away either, because they are more expensive and are just enhanced versions of their respective generational release.
That's why every new iPhone doesn't sell much, because it looks like a "pro" model of the previous one, right? I don't get it. Switch 2 is clearly marketed as the successor, just like every new PlayStation generation. Of course the newer device costs more at launch than the phased-out model. It has always been this way for every electronic device.
People will buy Switch 2 if there are some exclusive games they can't play anywhere else (incl. Switch 1).
And you're never going to get it.
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