Analyst Forecasts Console Sales to Fall 19.5% in 2026 to 33.9M Units in 2026 - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 13 July 2026 / 5,039 Views
A new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan (via GamesIndustry) has released a forecast for video game console sales that expects sales to drop 19.5 percent to 33.9 million units this year.
The consoles included in the forecast are from Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony. The reason given for the decline in sales is due to the increased prices seen for all consoles.
The data firm projects console sales to decline once again in 2027 to 27.1 million units, but expects sales to grow again in 2028 and reaching 37.4 million units in 2030.
"A critical assumption underlying our forecast's recovery period later in the decade is that the component crisis eases sufficiently by 2028 to allow Sony and Microsoft to bring next-generation hardware to market at price points in the $600 to $800 range," said S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Neil.
"For now, the market faces a compounding problem: hardware that is either too old or too expensive for the median consumer, a software slate that is thin outside a handful of tentpole releases, and a macro environment that keeps any meaningful price relief off the table."
S&P forecasts Nintendo to sell 17.1 million Nintendo Switch 2 consoles in 2026, Sony to sell 13.2 million PlayStation 5 consoles, and Microsoft to sell 2.5 million Xbox Series X|S consoles.
Barbour did question the impact Grand Theft Auto VI will have on console sales as the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S are more expensive now and will be six years old when the game launches.
"That framing does not inspire confidence for 2027 or beyond," said Barbour. "Our forecast models a potential PlayStation 6 launch in 2028, contributing 4 million units in its first year and scaling to 17.2 million by 2030."
The forecast for Xbox Series X|S is to expect "a rapid wind-down toward zero" after 2026. The decline is due to "an uneven first-party software library, a subscription-first strategy that did not noticeably improve hardware sales and pricing that now puts an Xbox Series X $100 above a standard PS5."
Barbour mentioned the next-generation Xbox, Project Helix, which will support Xbox and PC games, will likely result in a higher price point.
S&P predicts Project Helix to sell around two million units in its launch year and growing to 7.3 million by 2030.
"The actual outcome could look very different," Barbour stated. "A fully open PC platform with Xbox branding would not really resemble a console and likely not be counted in this model.
"Our forecast is functionally splitting the difference between a proper Xbox successor and an Xbox-certification program with PC OEMs, and readers should treat the post-2027 Microsoft trajectory as a range of outcomes contingent on decisions yet to be made or revealed."
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can follow the author on Bluesky.
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supply cost, labor cost. this industry going to hurt real soon. i have a great income and will never buy all 3 systems again. i own every system from the atari 2600 to today
I don't see PS6 outselling Switch 2 until it's successor is announced in 2031
Since we are fancasting, let's add a "Hypothetical Dreamcast 2" to the lineup baby!!
I have a BC PS3 which covers three gens and an Xbox 360 so far, I am good. Getting another dreamcast next, screw modern pricing
i agree, the switch 2 might be my last console
Thanks for nothing, AI.
I liked the "hypothetical PS6" and "hypothetical Xbox Series successor" in the chart lol
I do agree with the analyst that, minus any surprise killer apps that 2027 will be below 2026 and 2028. After that, it's probably too far out to predict. A killer app or series of duds can blow up predictions with ease. And in the case of a bubble like the current (probable) AI bubble, that could burst causing component prices to drop off a cliff, which can impact prices and demand.
I think launch of PS6 and Xbox will be hard as hell, but i also think the Switch 2 will peak next year. It will be so well positioned with a possible cheaper revision and the big IPs finally coming in (Zelda at the end of 2026, Pokemon and Mario next year).
The graph shows that Switch 2 should peak in its first or second year. That's what I would've expected as well.
I have more positive fantasy for Switch 2 numbers, but it depends on the games coming 2027. They also underestimate a cheaper PS6 handheld and not even consider it. I guess those numbers are far from what will actually happen, but I expect xbox to decline a lot more, because I doubt they subsidize their next gen and it will be more expensive than the steam machine.
estimating based on the Xbox data available in their chart Xbox Series should end this year at roughly 39 million shipped
Given the price hikes, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.
