NPD vs. VGC data for October 07' (Covering October 7th to November 3r - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 15 November 2007 / 2,047 Views

NPD has released sales figures for the period of October 7th 2007 to November 3rd 2007. VGChartz data for the same period is out, although it covers sales for Canada as well, which NPD has yet to release. The four week period of NPD October saw the release of Guitar Hero III for Xbox 360, Wii, PS3, and PS2. Additionally, the 80 Gig PS3 model (with Motorstorm) was available for $500 as of a October 18^th press release. Strong sellers from previous months such as Wii Play, and Halo 3 remained in the top ten monthly software charts for VGC and NPD. While new debuts were few this month aside from Guitar Hero III, the Orange Box debuted in both NPD and VGC data.

Using NPD’s publicly released data, comparisons from September to October show that Wii saw a 30% increase in sales on an average weekly basis, PS3 saw a 27% increase on an average weekly basis, while Xbox 360 saw roughly a 14% decrease in sales on an average weekly basis. PSP and DS saw 20% and 15% increases on an average weekly basis from the previous month. PS2 showed almost no change. Overall, Wii has reached 5.0 million units in the USA by NPD months (Nov 06’ to Oct 07’) while Xbox 360 sold roughly 20% fewer units during the same period (Nov 06’ to Oct 07’). Over the same period, PS3 remains under 2.0 million units by USA NPD. With the overall state of the USA industry in mind, it is time to look at the specifics for October and where NPD and VGC differed on presenting the market.

Unlike most recent discrepancies between NPD and VGC which have been random and lacking in uniformity, the discrepancies between the sales reality and the data reported in the sales tracked by NPD and VGC hint at significant - and - newly emerging trends in Xbox 360 data. While VGChartz showed very strong Xbox 360 hardware sales and stronger Xbox 360 software sales than NPD has shown this month, much of the other data was quite close. In fact, even accounting for the nearly 200,000 unit difference in Xbox 360 data on VGC vs. NPD totals (i.e. with Canada), the average difference in reported hardware sales was only 17% (using Canadian estimates where Canada Hardware Sales = 1/10 USA Hardware sales). There are many possible explanations for the differences over Xbox 360, but ultimately it comes down to bad luck in the sampling – likely originating from the origins of Guitar Hero III and Halo 3 sales – which were the primary drivers of Xbox 360 hardware for October . As an example of a possible source for the divergent data, consider the following. If one customer base went to buy a Xbox 360 for one type of game at store a, while the other type went to store b, then the sample is dependent on covering each type of customer in representative fashion, and it appears that the more dedicated, rabid 360 customer – the Halo 3 customeer – was over represented in VGC data. Still, Guitar Hero III for Xbox 360 was overestimated as well. This may mean that Halo 3 and GHIII sold nearly 1:1 among hardcore customers buying the title with new hardware, while in the reverse case (GHIII being the system mover, everything else ancillary), far less hardware and other big software (Halo 3) sold well. In other words, the overestimation of Xbox 360 hardware and big software titles go hand in hand with the aforementioned discrepency, since Xbox 360 is clearly owned by both large numbers of 16-34 year old casual gamers, and deeply dedicated (in terms of time and money) gamers. The clearest indication that overall the sample is good is the fact that NPD USA hardware sales for Wii, DS, PS3, PSP, PS2, and Xbox 360 added up to 1.934 million, while VGC hardware sales for Wii, DS, PS3, PSP, PS2 and Xbox 360 for the same period (with Canada included) added up to 2.25 million. Adding Canada NPD to USA NPD would likely result in hardware sales for the period of around 2.15 million units – resulting in under a 10% difference in overall market size representation. Ultimately, VGChartz sample data is producing the correct size of the market (i.e. the number of units sold), but there is still some work to do in improving the way each component of the sample needs to be weighted. With all of that in mind, here are the comparisons for the four weeks.

	VGC	NPD US	NPD tot*	VGC/NPDT*
Xbox 360	564,796	366,000	403,000	1.4
DS	550,399	458,000	504,000	1.09
Wii	512,477	519,000	580,000	0.88
PSP	305,017	286,000	315,000	0.97
PS3	156,128	121,000	133,000	1.17
PS2	161,797	184,000	202,000	0.8
GBA	61,932	n/a
			* est w/ can.

For the record, here were projected totals for this period vs. NPD and VGC:

	Pachter	TheSource	NPD USA	VGC (US/Ca)
Xbox 360	325,000	400,000	366,000	564,796
DS	400,000	390,000	458,000	550,399
Wii	450,000	424,000	519,000	512,477
PSP	225,000	234,000	286,000	305,017
PS3	125,000	136,000	121,000	156,128
PS2	190,000	168,000	184,000	161,797
GBA	n/a	48,000	n/a	61,932

Lastly, here are software sales from VGC and NPD (top ten). Bolded titles saw NPD USA sales within 25% of what VGC reported. Also note, comparisons will be adjusted for both hardware and software as Canadian data becomes available.

	Game Title (Console)	VGC Total	NPD USA
1	Guitar Hero 3 (360)	798,671	~491k*
2	Halo 3 (360)	682,813	433,800
3	Half Life 2 (360)	423,587	238,400
4	The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (DS)	284,565	262,800
5	Guitar Hero 3 (Wii)	271,053	286,300
6	Wii Play (Wii)	262,332	239,700
7	Guitar Hero 3 (PS2)	254,596	502,800*
8	Fifa 08 (PS2)	166,068	129,700
9	Ace Combat 6 (360)	156,145	92,500
10	Final Fantasy Tactics: The Lion War (PSP)	147,474	98,100

*	includes all skus reported (i.e. w/ & w/o guitar)

44 Comments

princess (on 19 February 2009)

johnlucas (on 18 November 2007)

NPD is not the Holy Grail and those who think VGChartz should bow at their altar don't realize how this site is the key to unlocking the mystery behind videogame sales tracking making it public.
I don't CARE if VGChartz sample sources are less than NPD's. I am, in fact, IMPRESSED that they are able to be so accurate with such a small sampling of data to extrapolate from. 'Imagine if they got more sources' is the kind of thinking I have on the subject. I want to see them grow, I want to see videogame sales be as public as they are in Japan, & I want VGChartz to become the premiere site for these kinds of things because they dared to challenge the status quo. I love rebels & those who buck "The Man"!

VGChartz is good and they will get better. Remember...in the end they are ALL estimates. NPD's included.

John Lucas

Arbok (on 17 November 2007)

"Was VGC out, or was NPD out?"

Well which was cited by all the major game firms? If VGChartz is sticking to their "guns" and not correcting the data, then their numbers on the entire site have lost a lot of credibility in my eyes.

outlawauron (on 17 November 2007)

is VGC not going to correct their numbers?

takkxyz (on 17 November 2007)

Hey, is NPD Canada's monthly out or what?

prosugno360 (on 17 November 2007)

simExchange - Holiday hardware predictions
November 18th, 2007

Numbers are predicted totals for November and December in North America…

Wii - 3,282,000
DS - 2,864,000
360 - 2,196,000
PSP - 1,240,000
PS3 - 1,153,000

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=c...82&Itemid=2

bugmenot (on 17 November 2007)

@ Lingyis

Perhaps the difference in variability is due to the demand/supply equation. Wii + DS sales are always maxed out at their supply limit, and so are fairly consistent, or at least trend with Nintendo's manufacturing ability, which should be slowly rising (or perhaps it would come in a few jolts, as new factories comes online).

360 and PS3 on the other hand are less predictable as demand varies quite unusually with games releases/price drops. It's very difficult to predict (or track) sales changes as a result of a $50 price drop. Everyone knew Halo 3 would sell well, but no one was sure how much, or what effect it would have on hardware for example.

outlawauron (on 16 November 2007)

@kirby007

NPD is the standard b/c of the public of every major game company.

Also, they have near a 60% coverage whereas VGC has about 5%.

Avinash_Tyagi (on 16 November 2007)

Was VGC out, or was NPD out?

mr-money (on 16 November 2007)

VG Chartz was really, really, really out on the 360 total.

And it's very heartwarming for me to see that the PS3 is still doing piss poor. I'm glad consumers weren't manipulated into thinking the PS3 is cheap.

Fonzerelli (on 16 November 2007)

Maybe VGC should take a cue and try to rectify their sampling methods which tend to favor the X360. Guitar Hero 3, Orange Box and Ace Combat 6 are X360 titles that have been consistently over tracked by VGC.
GH3 sales on the PS2 and X360 are Way-Off. I understand the PS2 is not a next-gen console, but it still carries its weight in the charts unlike XBX, GC and GBA sales.

Akis1975 (on 16 November 2007)

NPD #s for GH3 make more sence to me but they are just estimates so noone really knows the correct #s. As for the wii, because it is sold out it is probably easier to track its sales so everyone aggrees on the wii #s

I worder if the NPD people wanted to differ with VGC due to all the rumors of last month just to create a buzz?

TheBigFatJ (on 16 November 2007)

VGChartz was really over tracking the 360. I'd be interested to see what kind of formula is used to balance the expected demand, the historical data, and the sample gathered. It seems like there is some interpolation of the data, and Xbox 360 sales are often more in line with what people expect than reality.

dschumm (on 16 November 2007)

ioi can change or not change, that is his perogitive. What he wont do is change or not change just because it is NPD. This site hasn't been petty in the past so I don't expect it now. But I am sure everyone who follows this site already knows NPD information was used to help adjust the model before so it may be again. However ioi recently stated that he was moving away from that as his data was becoming more accurate compared to numbers from other sources. So we may see a compromise.

Now as far as The Source's analysis I am afraid I cannont agree entirely. Yes the size of the market is close, but if got an A and an E in two classes a C doesn't really tell me that I have a problem.

Assuming 10% off real numbers VGC and NPD should be within 20% of each of the other. So there is something at issue with the 360 numbers. Looking at the lack of deffinite spike in hardware for the Halo week always had me suspicious. I have to wonder if ioi changed his formula to encapsulate that, and the fact that those buyers went to any store and every store for Halo, but now 360 sales are returning to the core establishments.

For example if you look as three stores that represents places to buy video games

Gamestop 2. Best Buy 3. Wal-mart

I am guessing that for Halo 3 the 360 sold very well in all locations due to huge demand and promotional events, much like the Wii is because of it's virtual sell-out status. However in general, and particularly in the wake of the broad push for Halo, the 360 shoppers go back to favoring #1, and #2. While #3 type stores go back to pushing a majority of Wii/PS2 stuff. Remember 360 shoppers push opening day sales very high for software first day/first week, and to reliably find games on release day you have to go to a game/electronic store. Also I believe the 360 fanbase is the most affluent(at least with regard to video games) but that is another arguement. The size of the market represented by #3 will greatly expand for events like Halo, while number #1,2 will but not as much.

To give sample(guess) numbers say each stores sells 100 next gen consoles

1 sells 50 360 35 Wii 15 PS3 #2 sells 45 360 40 Wii 15 PS3 #3 sells 30 360 60 Wii 10 PS3

And I am sure ioi takes this into account but these factors change over time. So depending on his sample size he may not be able to read a shift in demographic preference. For example most weeks you can assume some favortism of certain types fo stores by cutomers buy for a big enough event like Halo, those rules can get thrown out the window.

We cannont ignore the fact that NPD has a much larger sample size. However niether side knows anything about Wal-mart. It's share is significant enough where estimation on both sides of Wal-mart can cause wide variance. Guitar Hero III and Madden 08 for the PS2 were shown to have have some of the poorest predictions by VGC. They were both casual titles for an older format, ripe candidtes for Wal-mart where there market share is even higher.

So I do expect ioi to take a closer look at the way he wieghs certain types of stores and maybe compare them to how he may have done it before Halo. As for software, he has said that is still in a preliminary estimation state so NPD numbers may serve to guide new estimation like in the beginning of hardware calculation days.

outlawauron (on 16 November 2007)

ya, I wonder if the PS3/PSP might outsold the 360 during those weeks.

Avinash_Tyagi (on 16 November 2007)

Depends on what you believe, if you think VGC is closer then it did, if you say NPD is closer then no, and if you say its somewhere in between then maybe

mesoteto (on 16 November 2007)

so the 360 didnt outsell the wii/??

NJ5 (on 16 November 2007)

Just to keep things true, pay attention to the fact that it's not a 200k difference, those NPD numbers don't include Canada yet. It's more like a 160k difference, still big of course.

In due time, when shipment reports come out, we'll see which one was right (or if the correct number is in between these two).

Avinash_Tyagi (on 16 November 2007)

VGC has no reason oto alter its data, even if they are off by almost 200K then so what, manufactured data will allow them to adjust, and the manufacuturers can't lie about their data, because even if they say they shipped X amount you can tell by the amount unsold how much they have actually sold, and people are assuming that NPD is spot on, whose to say they aren't undertracking the 360 and that the actual number isn't closer to VGC instead

Keeper Garrett (on 16 November 2007)

DOWN WITH MS.... wait what?

hunter_alien (on 16 November 2007)

As I stated in the orher threads ... nice Sony performance :)

kirby007 (on 16 November 2007)

GUYS way is VGC off? and not NPD?
why is NPD the standard? explain plz and don't avoid the question

Wingshot (on 16 November 2007)

Can we see V G numbers without Canada sales? I think that would be a greeat help. Including Canada sales while comparing to NPD US only is just clouding the issue.

Willem (on 16 November 2007)

"No - the numbers are not to be changed. We are not here to COPY NPD - rather to do our own tracking."

Ok, then let's not call it copying, but correcting.
I think NPD is one of the most reliable sources, how can you guys ignore that ?
Do you believe the manufacturers give you reliable numbers ?

Lafiel (on 16 November 2007)

hmm.. seems like the shops ioi uses as source clearly have a demographie of custumers which favor the 360

Just_Ben (on 16 November 2007)

The Source, why do you not include data made available by SE?

Tetsuo Shima (on 16 November 2007)

@ chavafx

Right behind the Mario. lol

choirsoftheeye (on 16 November 2007)

Well, perhaps the disparity in software sales between wii and other consoles isn't as great as some feared.

chavafx (on 16 November 2007)

Ratchet & Clank big flop where is it?

DarkNight_DS (on 16 November 2007)

It looks to me like VGChartz has under tracked the Wii last week in N.A. as well. Possibly under tracked in Europe too.

Tetsuo Shima (on 16 November 2007)

@ shams

R U kidding? It's an instant kiss of death for the site. NPD is right. It's not about "own tracking" - it's about being the most comprehensive source in the net. If you want to know something about own tracking then go on nextgenwars.

Site is great but in this case correction is necessary. It's more than 200k.

Zucas (on 16 November 2007)

Well if we dont adjust our numbers even a little bit then we will be at fault. Despite the obvious overtracking of 360 sales which if u choose to be stubborn about fine, but at least do some updates software wise. I think we owe it to GHIII on the PS2 at least.

I mean I understand the need to seperate this site from NPD but remember you owe it to your readers to sustain factuality as well.

Otherwise not my site so do as you wish.

Oh one more thing. Still those 3 Wii million sellers need to be added.

Lingyis (on 16 November 2007)

Thanks again TheSource!

VGChartz had a decent month--would have been fantastic if not for the 40% error of 360 being a serious eyesore.

It's weird, seems like for Wii and DS the variance is always smaller, whereas with 360 and ps3 sometimes VGChartz can have really, really bad months. I hope it's just a simple matter of sampling issues.

Sullla (on 15 November 2007)

So compared to NPD, VGChartz looked pretty similar overall for the month... with the gigantic exception of the 360. I think quite a few of us had a feeling that it was being overtracked a little; don't get me wrong, the 360 is doing great in America right now, just not THAT great!

Whether or not ioi changes the numbers, it's nice to get some more data to consider.

shams (on 15 November 2007)

No - the numbers are not to be changed. We are not here to COPY NPD - rather to do our own tracking.

If platform holders release shipping figures which move our numbers wrong - then they will be adjusted.

Erik Aston (on 15 November 2007)

Did well on the hardware except 360. But blew it on GHIII for PS2 and 360.

Many of VGC's numbers remain pretty valuable, but given those that were way off, I'm SO glad NPD is still releasing numbers!

Lovezoo (on 15 November 2007)

So, are you going to fix your data then?

outlawauron (on 15 November 2007)

ouch, bad week.

Here's the NPD top ten.

Halo 3 (Xbox 360) - 433,800
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/ guitar (Xbox 360) - 383,200
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/ guitar (Wii) - 286,300
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/ guitar (PS2) - 271,100
The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (DS) - 262,800
Wii Play (Wii) - 239,700
The Orange Box (Xbox 360) - 238,400
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (PS2) -231,700
FIFA Soccer 08 (PS2) - 129,700
Brain Age 2: More Training In Minutes A Day (DS) - 116,900

So really, Guitar Hero III on PS2 was the highest selling game.

elendar (on 15 November 2007)

Ouch.

Ashadelo (on 15 November 2007)

wow, you guys were off with the 360

snooty89 (on 15 November 2007)

However I find it hard to believe that VGC is that far off. I am guessing it is somewhere inbetween the npd numbers. I doubt you guys are 160,000 off on the 360. Who's to say which numbers are correct anyways.

Garcian Smith (on 15 November 2007)

Wow. Looks like VGC way overtracked on 360 console and game sales, while nearly nailing DS and Wii sales. I smell a Microsoft bias!!

...just kidding. :)

snooty89 (on 15 November 2007)

very nice work!

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