Analyst: Nintendo to Ship 25 Million Switch Units This Fiscal Year - News
by William D'Angelo , posted on 03 October 2018 / 2,924 Views
Nintendo is expecting to ship 20 million Nintendo Switch consoles in the current fiscal year which started on April 1, 2018 and will end on March 31, 2019.
Analyst Hideki Yasuda from Osaka-based firm Ace Economic Research Institute believes that Nintendo is being conservative and says that Nintendo could ship 25 million Switch consoles in the current fiscal year, along with 140 million games. That would bring lifetime Switch shipments to 42.79 million units.
Yasuda says the reason for the higher shipment figures is that Super Smash Bros. Ultimate and Pokémon: Let’s Go, Pikachu!/Let’s Go, Eevee! will be bigger hits than what Nintendo is expecting.
Thanks DualShockers.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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Well, at least this is much more likely than Michael Patcher's prediction.
Pachter says the Switch is on track to sell 8M this fiscal year. Between those 2 predictions, Yasudas seems way more realistic. Unless Pachter meant NPD only, so just globally in the US, there's no way in hell he'll be correct
I honestly think 20 million is more realistic than 25 million.
I agree. But....
Realistically speaking, it is hard for anyone to predict sales of the Switch right now. Everyone is basically just guessing. Numbers for Nintendo consoles historically are all over the place. As for Switch in particular, a big chunk of this year's sales will be driven by a known sales beast - Smash Bros. But, they're certainly also counting on Pokemon Let's Go to move some units, and that sub-series is completely untested. If both Pokemon and Smash get amazing reviews, and they're able to bring some Go players into Switch, and Nintendo somehow decides to produce 5m more units that they're expecting to sell, maybe 25m is within reach. But, if Smash is just mediocre, and Let's Go doesn't catch on with players of Go, even 15m Switch sales could be hard to hit.
The point is, there are lot of variables. Too many for me to feel confident in any prediction.
I would say that Smash Bros Ultimate's average is most likely to be in either mid-high 80s or low 90s. Pokemon Let's Go on the otherhand is probably going to be in the 70s range. That said, I want to play them both.
That seems incredibly unlikely.
Very skeptical.
Maybe the idea is for us to just take the average between this and Pachter’s predictions.
I mean, i could see 20 millions maybe not 25. But we never know, if they do great deals for holidays/Black friday, have a crazy smash switch collector and pokemon turns out to be decent, mayyyyyybe.
Over 23 million in 9 months? Sure, why not.
He's just a comedian. not analyst.
Not gonna happen.
Well Lucca it's probably actually impossible for this to happen, Nintendo would likely not be able to produce systems to sell this amount between now and Dec.
watch it sell only 15 million
Imo it depends if China will have great interest on this hybrid system having fortnite, a MOBA game and other Nintendo games and third party games.
China already plays Fortnite and MOBAs on PC. There is no need for neither PS4 nor Switch as is evident by the sales figures.
I think people are underestimating Smash, but not by that much. A 25% increase is possible, but that's closer to 50%.
It's possible, but would have been more likely if Smash released earlier. it's an evergreen title that is one of the strongest games for Spring/Summer/Autumn sales, but I don't think it's the best holiday season game they could have released. Getting a Breath of the Wild 1.5 sort of game out would have been stronger. It should still do well and will DEFINITELY mean for a strong Q4/Winter, so potentially 25M - but they need to do 3-4M this summer, 15M this fall, and another 5M this winter.
I think it's safe to assume that major Switch revision is coming this fiscal year. At that point in time the GBA, DS and 3DS already had one. With that in mind, sure 25 mil is not far-fetched.
Definitely the 8 million prediction. That one underestimates the holiday season.
Very intelligent. Are you that bright IRL as well, or is it just for show online?
