Totals, Statistics, and Analysis of the 2008 World Videogame Market - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 07 January 2009 / 52,129 Views

Jacob Mazel

Market Changes from 2006-2008

After a 2007 in which Nintendo dominated hardware sales and software sales worldwide, many questioned whether that success would be sustainable into 2008. For many industry analysts, 2007 had been a very difficult year to predict because there were three transitions taking place. Sony’s PS2 was in the process of being replaced by Nintendo’s DS as the top machine for total software sales worldwide. Nintendo determined that it could handle supporting two platforms better than three or four in 2005, and this allowed for all the top software from the firm to concentrate on only two platforms over a period of two years. Sony at the same time had the challenge of expanding its resources to support three platforms, and trying to determine which platforms to place the projects on. The major trend in Japan in 2005 of PS2 dominance waning due to the emergence of DS dominance left the 2006 videogame sales muddled. Below is a representation of platform sales out of all platforms sold in 2006:

In a year when 60 million videogame platforms were sold, Nintendo managed to juggle its four platforms just well enough to grab over 50% of all videogame hardware units sold. For 2007, many expected that a) the market would grow, and b) that with price cuts Microsoft and Sony would be able to drop Nintendo’s share by attracting more mainstream consumers. Instead, the 2007 sales distribution ended up looking like this:

The Wii began to explode in 2007, selling over 16 million units and becoming the first console more expensive than PS2 to outsell it in every world market in the same year. Videogame sales did grow tremendously in 2007 though – over 81 million units of videogame hardware sold. DS held firm at 35% of all sales, leading Nintendo’s charge to 55% hardware market share in the year. If Game Cube, Xbox, and Game Boy Advance sales are included as well, Nintendo’s market share jumps up another percent, mainly because GBA sold over 2m units in 2007. Despite Nintendo’s growth in total market share, the change did not really come at the expense of Sony or Microsoft market share, since it was mainly Game Boy Advance, PS2, GC, and Xbox users migrating to the newer machines. In 2008, the expectation was that the videogame market would be up once again, and that as Wii aged and rival machines began peaking, Nintendo’s market share would slip a bit. Instead, it was Sony’s market share which slipped to Nintendo and Microsoft, despite having the most platforms on the market. DS market share did dip from 35% to 32%, but the market grew so much in the year, that its sales were still up from 2007.

Over 101 million units of hardware were sold in 2008. As a result, despite losing more market share out of all total hardware sales for the year, Sony did actually sell more platforms than in 2007. Microsoft took a bigger piece of the pie as the pie got bigger; suggesting that the price cuts helped the company quite a bit.

The changes in hardware volumes between the big three can be summed up as:

Company	06'	07' *	08'
Nintendo	30.33m	45.08m	59.36m
Sony	22.28m	28.73m	30.75m
Microsoft	7.47m	7.93m	11.37m
Total	60.08m	81.74m	101.48m

Company	06'	07' *	08'
Nintendo	50.48%	55.15%	58.49%
Sony	37.08%	35.15%	30.30%
Microsoft	12.43%	9.70%	11.20%
Total	60.08m	81.74m	101.48m

In 2007, the videogame hardware market grew an incredible 40%* from 2006 levels before slowing down to only 20% growth over 2007 levels in 2008. The slowing world growth is mostly a function of Japan posting contracting figures, and slowing Americas growth as can be seen below.

* With GBA, GC, and Xbox included, the total for 2007 grows to ~84.25m and Nintendo grabs another ~1.3% market share.

2008 Sales by Region

In 2008, the Americas and Others markets posted banner growth over 2007, with only PS2 sales shrinking from the previous year. One of the biggest reasons for Sony’s drop in market share in 2008 is that Wii and Xbox 360 sales more than doubled in the Others region, while DS sales grew there by 50%. Combined PS2+PSP sales in Others were roughly flat at about 9m while PS3 sales grew by 50%. The one region where Sony’s market share did grow was in Japan, where PSP offset declines in PS2 and PS3 sales, and where Wii and DS sales dropped off from 3.7m and 7.2m to 2.9m and 4.0m. DS still managed to outsell PSP in Japan though, despite the 40% drop in sales.

	Dec 30 2007 to Dec 27 2008
Platform	Americas	Others	Japan	World 08
DS	11,874,436	17,285,105	4,024,193	33,183,734
Wii	12,230,473	11,038,218	2,909,197	26,177,888
PSP	4,218,170	4,796,556	3,682,088	12,696,814
X360	5,537,230	5,506,194	326,119	11,369,543
PS3	3,922,378	5,489,889	1,004,037	10,416,304
PS2	2,805,869	4,335,983	486,881	7,628,733

The top and bottom sellers by region are bolded in the chart above. DS was the top seller worldwide, in Japan, and in Others. Wii managed to outsell DS in the Americas. PS2 was the bottom seller worldwide, in Others, and the Americas. In Japan the Xbox 360 still sold less than the PS2 despite ongoing efforts by Microsoft to push the machine. Comparing the figures above to those from 2007 shows just how much Wii has grown relative to the other machines:

	Dec 31 2006 to Dec 29 2007
Platform	Americas	Others	Japan	World 07
DS	9,929,469	11,688,928	7,209,147	28,827,544
Wii	7,390,511	5,176,255	3,681,239	16,248,005
PSP	4,034,597	4,397,454	3,108,016	11,540,067
PS2	4,227,926	4,535,608	810,152	9,573,686
X360	5,087,376	2,584,582	257,924	7,929,882
PS3	2,763,602	3,636,207	1,218,612	7,618,421

World	2008 Sales	2007 Sales	Change	Y.O.Y.
DS	33,183,734	28,827,544	4,356,190	1.15
Wii	26,177,888	16,248,005	9,929,883	1.61
PSP	12,696,814	11,540,067	1,156,747	1.10
X360	11,369,543	7,929,882	3,439,661	1.43
PS3	10,416,304	7,618,421	2,797,883	1.37
PS2	7,628,733	9,573,686	1,944,953	0.80
Total	101,473,016	81,737,605	19,735,411	1.24

Wii accounts for over half the additional hardware sold in 2008 as can be seen by comparing the bolded figures. The red coloring of PS2 in the second graph indicates that the system has sold fewer units than last year. In a bit of a surprise it was Wii and DS which saw larger growth worldwide than Xbox 360 despite Microsoft's price cuts.

Looking back to the 2007 and 2008 regional totals, there are a couple of important changes worth recognizing. In 2007, neither the Xbox 360 nor the PS3 outsold the aging PS2. Both consoles outsold the PS2 in 2008. It is debatable whether this is a bigger deal for Microsoft or for Sony. PS3 outsold PS2 by 40%, which is less than the 50% pace Xbox 360 outsold PS2 by for the year. However, PS3 has been on the market for less time than the Xbox 360. My suspicion is that Sony’s sales will hold up longer in Europe than Microsoft’s since the Xbox 360 launched almost a year and a half earlier. While neither company can be pleased that it took untill 2008 to outsell PS2, Sony can take solace in the fact that it can effectively subsidize PS3 with PS2, while Microsoft had to get price way down over a longer period to top PS2 worldwide. But the Xbox 360 did outsell the PS3 in Others in 2008, and that’s Sony’s best region.

Others Year over Year Trends

Others	2008 Sales	2007 Sales	Change	Y.O.Y.
DS	17,285,105	11,688,928	5,596,177	1.48
Wii	11,038,218	5,176,255	5,861,963	2.13
PSP	4,796,556	4,397,454	399,102	1.09
X360	5,506,194	2,584,582	2,921,612	2.13
PS3	5,489,889	3,636,207	1,853,682	1.51
PS2	4,335,983	4,535,608	199,625	0.96
Total	48,451,945	32,019,034	16,432,911	1.51

With two price cuts in the Others region, the Xbox 360 went from being the least popular machine in 2007 to virtually tying PS3 at 5.5m. Sony’s 50% PS3 growth is a bit misleading in this comparison as we are comparing 12 months of sales for 2008 to 9 months of sales in 2007. The extra three months in 2008 if tacked on to the 9 months of 2007 sales, at steady weekly sales would have produced 33% growth. Nonetheless, PS3 sales were up in 2008, and given a massive increase in Wii supply, and a massive price disparity with the Xbox 360 Sony has to be – and should be pleased with the results here.

DS continues to be an absolute monster in the Others region. With 17.3m units sold YTD, the portable just missed attaining 40m units sold LTD – just in Others in 2008. For comparison, shipments of Nintendo’s entire Game Boy line – Game Boy, Game Boy Pocket, and Game Boy Color – only reached about 42 million in the region. DS can realistically reach 60 million in Others, and there is probably room beyond that if Nintendo chooses to continue supporting the device.

PSP sales, despite the growth of DS managed to improve nearly 10%, offsetting the slight decline in PS2 sales.

The big question for 2009 in Others is going to be whether Wii and DS will mimic the Americas and switch places. If you look above, DS sold 11.7m in Others in 2007, which is about what Wii sold in Others in 2008. DS just had its third full year in Others, which tends to be the peak. If DS sales dip a bit, while Wii sales rise, Wii could take over as top machine in the region for a few years. The other trend to watch will be price cuts for Xbox 360 and PS3, as Europe is probably the first region where Sony can stay profitable while cutting price.

Americas Year over Year Trends

Americas	2008 Sales	2007 Sales	Change	Y.O.Y.
DS	11,874,436	9,929,469	1,944,967	1.20
Wii	12,230,473	7,390,511	4,839,962	1.65
PSP	4,218,170	4,034,597	183,573	1.05
X360	5,537,230	5,087,376	449,854	1.09
PS3	3,922,378	2,763,602	1,158,776	1.42
PS2	2,805,869	4,227,926	1,422,057	0.66
Total	40,588,556	33,433,481	7,155,075	1.21

The Americas went Wii crazy in 2008. While Nintendo sold 7.4m Wiis in 2007, the company sold 12.2m Wiis in 2008. The increase in product alone – 4.8m more Wiis than in 2007 – was greater than the number of PSPs, PS3, or PS2s sold in the region. On the lift of an August price drop, Microsoft was able to sell 5.5m Xbox 360s in the Americas a 10% improvement from the previous year. Sony saw a 42% year over year growth in PS3 sales, but with the drop in PS2 sales, Sony’s influence in the Americas hardware market has dropped rather precariously. Out of 33.4m machines sold in 2007, Sony sold 11.02m machines. In 2008, the market grew to 40.6m machines, but Sony sold only 10.95m machines. As a result, despite growth in PS3 sales, Sony’s hardware share dipped to 27% from 33% in 2007.

In its fourth full year in the Americas, the DS continued to post double-digit growth. Nintendo sold more than 1.9m more portables in 2008 than in 2007. Thus despite PSP year over year growth of 5%, DS was able to continue outpacing PSP in the Americas.

In 2009, Wii and PS3 will be entering their third full years on the market in the Americas. As a result, they should see large growth over 2008 numbers. PS2 will continue to get squeezed off of shelves in 2009, so a looming question for the year is whether the PS2 market in the Americas will start to look like the PS2 market in Japan, with only low single digit percentage representation out of total hardware sales. DS, PSP, and Xbox 360 are going to be the key platforms in determining whether industry sales gain or decline. Without a price cut, Xbox 360 sales will likely be flat or down. The DSi launch will not reinvigorate DS sales in the Americas as well as in Japan. PSP is a bit of a mystery with so little top selling software to drive trends in the west.

The situation that seems most likely to happen is another massive increase in Wii sales (up 25-50%), PS3 sales up 20-40%, DS, PSP, and Xbox 360 down 10-25%, and PS2 down 30-50% from 2008 levels.

One other possibility is that the Americas market could look like the Japan market in 2008 – down.

Japan Year over Year Trends

Japan	2008 Sales	2007 Sales	Change	Y.O.Y.
DS	4,024,193	7,209,147	3,184,954	0.56
Wii	2,909,197	3,681,239	772,042	0.79
PSP	3,682,088	3,108,016	574,072	1.18
X360	326,119	257,924	68,195	1.26
PS3	1,004,037	1,218,612	214,575	0.82
PS2	486,881	810,152	323,271	0.60
Total	12,432,515	16,285,090	3,852,575	0.76

Japan is the videogame market most in love with the DS. On the chart above, remember that red indicates shrinking sales. When sales of DS showed some signs of returning to normal (4m is usually a peak year for a console or portable in Japan) from freakish (DS sold over 7m units in both 2007 and 2006) Nintendo introduced the DSi model of DS to prevent sales from declining to a rate below 4m. With only 130 million people in Japan though, DS was bound to hit saturation in Japan first. Nonetheless, the contraction of most other machines suggests that the nature of the Japanese videogame market is changing. Sony’s PSP was the only machine to see a rise in sales in 2008 in Japan of over 100,000 units, which is somewhat alarming given that Wii, PS3, and Xbox 360 should all be entering peak sales phases. Microsoft did sell more Xbox 360s in Japan than last year, but the console continues to struggle relative to Wii and even PS3 in the region. With the fan bases of Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, and Final Fantasy set to return to the consoles, there should be a switch in the coming years – DS and PSP will decline while PS3 and Wii rise but its up in the air as to whether that will happen in 2009 or 2010.

Japan did offer something of a bright spot for Sony in 2008. While the overall size of the market shrunk from 16.3m to 12.4m systems sold, total sales of Sony machines were flat with rising PSP sales offsetting falling PS2 and PS3 sales. Since Microsoft also gained in Japan, Nintendo actually faces a bit of pressure in Japan in 2009 since DS sales dropped by over 3m and Wii sales dropped by nearly 800k in 2008. Motion plus for Wii and the DSi could easily boost or maintain sales for the machines compared to 2008 levels, but if they don’t, Nintendo has to make sure it doesn’t over react given the ongoing explosion of DS and Wii in Others and the Americas.

Weekly Hardware Sales Distribution

As stated above, DS and Wii led hardware sales in 2008. The platforms managed average sales of over 500,000 units per week worldwide.

Platform	08' Total	Averages
DS	33,183,734	638,149
Wii	26,177,888	503,421
PSP	12,696,814	244,170
Xbox 360	11,369,543	218,645
PS3	10,416,304	200,314
PS2	7,628,733	146,706

A more instructive way to look at weekly sales though is to look at the distribution of sales by week.

DS only managed eight weeks above the 600,000 to 700,000 range which contains its average sales. Wii had nine weeks above the 500,000 to 600,000 range which is what its averages sales were. PSP, 360 and PS3 had seven weeks above the 200,000 to 300,000 range, which is where their average weekly sales were. PS2 sold 100,000 to 200,000 units on average, but it topped that level seven times.

The point is, when looking at sales for 2009 it is best to look at median sales for 2008, and then calculate holiday sales and average sales from increases or decreases to the medians.

Platform	08' Total	Averages	Point of Median Weekly Sales
DS	33,183,734	638,149	400k-500k
Wii	26,177,888	503,421	300k-400k
PSP	12,696,814	244,170	200k-300k
X360	11,369,543	218,645	100k-200k
PS3	10,416,304	200,314	100k-200k
PS2	7,628,733	146,706	100k-200k

This is because the higher the average gets, the greater the intensity of points above the average of ‘non-holiday’ weeks. DS sold less than 500,000 units 40 weeks in 2008, but it also had six weeks where it sold more than double that amount (over 1m/week), and those extreme weeks were enough to pick up the DS weekly average in 2008 to 638,000+.

Top Software of 2008

Hardware wasn’t the only area of the industry that was healthy in 2008. There were literally dozens of million sellers in 2008 regionally and worldwide. As a change of pace, we’ve decided to assemble a) top ten sellers by region ranked by unit sales in addition to b) top third party sellers by region since games from Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft tend to reach millions worldwide.

We begin with the overall top ten sellers in the Americas.

	Game	Plat	Pub	YTD
1	Mario Kart Wii	Wii	Nintendo	5.76m
2	Wii Play	Wii	Nintendo	5.71m
3	Wii Fit	Wii	Nintendo	5.17m
4	Super Smash Brothers Brawl	Wii	Nintendo	4.84m
5	Grand Theft Auto IV	X360	Take 2	4.24m
6	Call of Duty: World at War	X360	Activision	2.89m
7	New Super Mario Brothers	DS	Nintendo	2.85m
8	Gears of War 2	X360	Microsoft	2.75m
9	Grand Theft Auto IV	PS3	Take 2	2.28m
10	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare	X360	Activision	2.10m

Nintendo took five of the top ten positions, with Activision and Take Two each getting two spots. Gears of War 2 from Microsoft took the remaining spot at number eight. All ten of the top games sold over 2 million units. Three of the games in the Americas top ten list have a shot at topping $1b in revenues worldwide. Wii Fit has already done it since the game costs $90, but Grand Theft Auto IV across Xbox 360 and PS3 could easily sell 16 million units, and at $60/game sold (perhaps more depending on how the game sells in Europe long term) Take Two could eventually end up getting $1b too. Wii Play comes with a controller, but it’s still a game, and it will soon surpass 20m units worldwide at over $50/game sold insuring it too will pass $1b in revenue.

With the games published by the big three removed, things look quite a bit different.

	Game	Platform	Publisher	YTD
1	Grand Theft Auto IV	X360	Take Two	4.24m
2	Call of Duty: World at War	X360	Activision	2.89m
3	Grand Theft Auto IV	PS3	Take Two	2.28m
4	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare	X360	Activision	2.10m
5	Madden NFL 09	X360	EA	1.99m
6	Lego Indiana Jones: T.O.A. *	X360	Lucas Arts	1.84m
7	Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock	Wii	Activision	1.79m
8	Kung Fu Panda *	X360	Activision	1.60m
9	Guitar Hero: On Tour	DS	Activision	1.52m
10	Tom Clancy's Rainbow 6: Vegas 2	X360	Ubisoft	1.52m
11	Metal Gear Solid 4*	PS3	Konami	1.50m
12	Guitar Hero: World Tour	Wii	Activision	1.49m

The starred games denote that some forced bundles were sold in 2008, pushing software sales for those games higher. Each game was available separately too though, so they are included. But, for those who want only a non-bundled list, I’ve listed the next highest third party sellers for 2008.

While the list only extends down to the top twelve third party titles, there are some other interesting third party notes worth sharing for the Americas. First, here is the distribution of third party hits by current generation platform in 2008:

Americas	500k+	1000k+	1500k+	2000k+
Wii	15	5	1
DS	13	2	1
PSP	3
PS3	13	5	2	1
X360	36	15	7	3

The chart above and the ones below depict third party hits by category. Each time you move to the right, you are seeing a subdivision of the previous category to the left. So the five under ‘1000k’ and ‘Wii’ depicts the number of third party Wii games to sell over 500,000 copies which also sold over 1 million copies. In other words, only 15 Wii games sold over 500,000 copies in 2008 – not 21.

Microsoft clearly has a reason to brag about 3^rd party sales in the Americas. All the same, until the middle of May 2008, the Xbox 360 did have a user base lead over Wii in the Americas. Additionally, the console has been on the market a year longer. In terms of time, that’s a 50% lead on Wii, and if you throw in the user base lead that lasted through about 1/3 of 2008, it would be reasonable to expect perhaps as many as 75% more third party hits on the Xbox 360 in total. Even with that adjustment though, Wii would still be behind, so the point still stands – Xbox 360 owners buy more games than Wii owners do in the Americas. Sony finds itself in an interesting position at the moment. A small number of people clearly love the PS3 if it can have 13 third party games sell 500,000 units in a year when Wii only had 15 third party games do that. Nintendo had a similar problem with Game Cube – what was left of Nintendo’s base loved the Game Cube. Nintendo shipped 11 games on average for the system. Sony does not want the PS3 to fall to a similar position, as even if they sell 20 games to 20 million PS3s owners in the Americas its not nearly as healthy as selling 11 games to 50 million users as they did with the PS2 owners. Microsoft seems to be stuck in between the two extremes. If Nintendo continues to chart its current course, odds are the volume of Wiis out there will be so great that more third party software on Wii will eventually be sold than third party Xbox 360 software.

It’s probably 6 to 18 months away yet though, and it’s probably already true in Others and Japan.

Next up is the Others region, composed primarily of Europe and augmented by markets in mainland Asia, Oceania and Africa. Below are the overall top sellers in Others:

	Game	Platform	Publisher	YTD
1	Mario Kart Wii	Wii	Nintendo	5.89m
2	Wii Fit	Wii	Nintendo	5.73m
3	Wii Play	Wii	Nintendo	4.72m
4	Brain Training	DS	Nintendo	3.40m
5	Grand Theft Auto IV	PS3	Take Two	2.76m
6	More Brain Training	DS	Nintendo	2.53m
7	Nintendogs	DS	Nintendo	2.50m
8	Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games	Wii	Sega	2.48m
9	Grand Theft Auto IV	X360	Take Two	2.33m
10	New Super Mario Bros	DS	Nintendo	2.33m

Nintendo platforms took an amazing eight of the top titles in Others in 2008. The lone title on a Sony platform to debut in the top ten for the year is Grand Theft Auto IV – just as the case is in the Americas. In Others though, GTAIV is also the only title to chart in the top ten for Xbox 360.

Once we do a third party top ten though, it becomes clear which companies are doing well:

	Game	Platform	Publisher	YTD
1	Grand Theft Auto IV	PS3	Take Two	2.76m
2	Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games	Wii	Sega	2.48m
3	Grand Theft Auto IV	X360	Take Two	2.33m
4	Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games	DS	Sega	2.15m
5	Metal Gear Solid 4	PS3	Konami	1.59m
6	FIFA 09	PS3	Electronic Arts	1.40m
7	Cooking Mama 2: Dinner With Friends	DS	505 Games	1.28m
8	PES 2009: Pro Evolution Soccer	PS2	Konami	1.27m
9	Call Of Duty: World At War	X360	Activision	1.24m
10	PES 2009: Pro Evolution Soccer	PS3	Konami	1.23m

Konami, Take Two, and Sega are each well represented in the 3^rd party top ten. Just as in the USA “football” is quite big in Europe – and Konami and EA benefit from this as three of the top ten are soccer games. GTA and Sonic apparently still hold sway as well, as another four of the top ten selling games for the year involved those brands. The three remaining titles are from well established franchises too – Cooking Mama, Call of Duty and Metal Gear Solid.

Working though the rest of the data to dig out the remaining 3^rd party hits for 2008 reveals the following distribution:

Others	500k+	1000k+	1500k+	2000k+
Wii	12	2	1	1
DS	15	2	1	1
PSP	1
PS3	11	5	2	1
X360	13	3	1	1

The key difference between the Americas and Others appears to be that the Nintendo take over of software is happening faster because Microsoft has less influence in the region. In 2008, 27 third party games on Wii and DS sold over 500,000 copies in Others. For PS3, Xbox 360 and PSP combined only 25 third party games sold over 500,000 copies. The PS3 and Xbox 360 had more third party games sell over 1m copies for the year than Wii and DS did by a 2:1 margin. However, the number of titles on each machine to reach that level in Others is small enough to count on fingers and toes so it isn’t too hard to imagine a switch in favor of Wii and DS if third party companies decide that they should invest some of their big projects on Wii. Sega for one is a prime candidate given that it was the sole third party to have a game top 2m on both Wii ad DS, just as Take Two was the sole third party to have a game top 2m on both Xbox 360 and PS3 in 2008. Given the cheaper costs of developing for Wii and DS, its even possible Sega will make more money than Take Two will with its twin killing.

Next up is the smallest of the three world regions, Japan. With falling DS sales in 2008, Japan has undergone a transformation from DS-land to Nintendo-land. Eight of the top ten titles were published by Nintendo and nine of the top ten titles were on Nintendo platforms in Japan for 2008, but only three of those titles were on DS. In an interesting twist though, the platform that came closest to dethroning DS in Japan, the PSP, had only one title in the top ten.

	Game	Platform	Publisher	YTD
1	Monster Hunter Portable 2G**	PSP	Capcom	2.71m
2	Pokemon Platinum	DS	Nintendo	2.23m
3	Wii Fit	Wii	Nintendo	2.15m
4	Mario Kart Wii	Wii	Nintendo	1.99m
5	Super Smash Brothers Brawl	Wii	Nintendo	1.83m
6	Rhythm Heaven Gold	DS	Nintendo	1.37m
7	Dragon Quest V	DS	Square-Enix	1.20m
8	Animal Crossing: City Folk	Wii	Nintendo	0.90m
9	Kirby Superstar Ultra	DS	Nintendo	0.90m
10	Wii Sports	Wii	Nintendo	0.82m

**includes the cheaper re-release of the game

Wii launch title Wii Sports managed to sell 820,000 additional units in Japan in 2008 outselling heavily touted exclusives such as Metal Gear Solid 4. As is the case with the other regions, Nintendo’s clamp down of the top ten makes it difficult to read the market from the top ten. Below are the top ten third party titles in Japan for 2008.

	Game	Platform	Publisher	YTD
1	Monster Hunter Portable 2G**	PSP	Capcom	2.71m
2	Dragon Quest V	DS	Square-Enix	1.20m
3	Phantasy Star Portable	PSP	Sega	0.67m
4	Metal Gear Solid 4	PS3	Konami	0.66m
5	Disddia: Final Fantasy	PSP	Square-Enix	0.65m
6	Professor Layton 3	DS	Level 5	0.62m
7	Super Robot Wars Taisen Z	PS2	Banpresto	0.47m
8	Chrono Trigger	DS	Square-Enix	0.45m
9	Warriors Orochi: Maou Sairin	PS2	Koei	0.40m
10	Taiko Drum Master DS: S.I.A.	DS	Namco-Bandai	0.38m

Only six third party games in Japan sold over 500,000 units in 2008, so instead of extending down to only 500,000 units, the distribution of Japanese third party hits has been drawn down to 200,000 units.

Japan	200k+	350k+	500k+	1000k+	1500k+	2000k+
Wii	3
DS	12	4	2	1
PSP	7	4	3	1	1	1
PS3	6	1	1
X360	0

Only 28 third party games in Japan sold over 200,000 units in 2008. Compare that to Others where 52 third games sold over 500,000 units, and the Americas where 80 third party games sold over 500,000 units.

Worldwide, there were ten games to sell over 4.5m units in 2008. As is the case with the charts above, the top ten list includes games which were never ‘forced’ bundles but which may have been bundled by retailers in different regions at various times throughout the year.

	Game (2008 Sales)	Plat	Pub	Amers	Oths	Ja	All
1	Mario Kart Wii	Wii	Nintendo	5.76m	5.89m	1.99m	13.64m
2	Wii Fit	Wii	Nintendo	5.17m	5.73m	2.15m	13.05m
3	Wii Play	Wii	Nintendo	5.71m	4.72m	0.57m	11.00m
4	Super Smash Brothers Brawl	Wii	Nintendo	4.84m	1.64m	1.83m	8.31m
5	Grand Theft Auto IV	360	Take 2	4.24m	2.33m	0.07m	6.64m
6	New Super Mario Brothers	DS	Nintendo	2.85m	2.33m	0.35m	5.53m
7	Brain Training	DS	Nintendo	1.89m	3.40m	0.16m	5.45m
8	Grand Theft Auto IV	PS3	Take 2	2.28m	2.76m	0.21m	5.25m
9	Mario Kart DS	DS	Nintendo	1.95m	2.27m	0.54m	4.76m
10	Nintendogs	DS	Nintendo	1.99m	2.50m	0.03m	4.52m

The big story for the year is the success of Wii Fit. It managed to outsell GTAIV – across Xbox 360 and PS3 combined by over 1m units. Wii Fit also costs ~50% more than GTAIV and has already brought in over $1b in revenue. The top games by region, with the exception of Japan where Monster Hunter Portable 2G has sold tremendously without seeing a western release yet to give it a chance of reaching the top ten, are all depicted in bold.

Success in multiple regions is the easiest way to chart in the top ten for the year. Of the top ten Americas titles, six made it. In Others, eight of the top ten titles made the world top ten chart. Lastly, Japan saw three of its top ten titles in the world top ten chart. Each region has specific peculiarities which prevent some title from reaching the top ten. In Japan, no Xbox 360 title sold over 200,000 units in 2008. So even though Microsoft’s platform had a few shooter titles which got over 4m in the western markets, they lack that final push from Japan to crack the top ten. In the Americas, soccer games sell terribly which prevents the Konami and EA sims from topping 4m. In the Americas, music and American football games do quite well. But they tend to do poorly elsewhere due to cultural issues and language barriers. In the Others region, taste is generally similar to the Americas in a general sense, but the specifics vary. Sonic is more popular than Mario in Others. Normal football is more popular than American football. PS3 is more popular than Xbox 360 in continental Europe; Xbox 360 is more popular than PS3 in the UK and Americas. A lot of these factors tend to work against each other rather than complement each other. As a result, the games which tend to chart in the worldwide top ten tend to have content which cracks the top five in at least two regions. Games which are super successful in one region tend to fail in other regions just as often as they often as they succeed.

As a way to conclude worldwide software sales, here are all the games to sell over 3 million units in 2008, with the sales by region color coded to indicate regional contribution to total sales:

	Game (3m+)	Plat.	Pub	Ams	Oths	Japan	World
1	Mario Kart Wii	Wii	Nintendo	5.76m	5.89m	1.99m	13.64m
2	Wii Fit	Wii	Nintendo	5.17m	5.73m	2.15m	13.05m
3	Wii Play	Wii	Nintendo	5.71m	4.72m	0.57m	11.00m
4	Super Smash Brothers Brawl	Wii	Nintendo	4.84m	1.64m	1.83m	8.31m
5	Grand Theft Auto IV	360	Take 2	4.24m	2.33m	0.07m	6.64m
6	New Super Mario Brothers	DS	Nintendo	2.85m	2.33m	0.35m	5.53m
7	Brain Training	DS	Nintendo	1.89m	3.40m	0.16m	5.45m
8	Grand Theft Auto IV	PS3	Take 2	2.28m	2.76m	0.21m	5.25m
9	Mario Kart DS	DS	Nintendo	1.95m	2.27m	0.54m	4.76m
10	Nintendogs	DS	Nintendo	1.99m	2.50m	0.03m	4.52m
11	More Brain Training	DS	Nintendo	1.74m	2.53m	0.21m	4.48m
12	Gears of War 2	360	Microsoft	2.75m	1.39m	n/a	4.14m
13	Call of Duty: World at War	360	Activision	2.89m	1.24m	n/a	4.13m
14	Pokemon Diamond + Peal	DS	Nintendo	2.02m	1.67m	0.28m	3.97m
15	Mario & Sonic at the Olympics	Wii	Sega	1.29m	2.48m	0.20m	3.97m
16	Mario & Sonic at the Olympics	DS	Sega	1.30m	2.15m	0.40m	3.85m
17	Metal Gear Solid 4: G.o.t.P.	PS3	Konami	1.50m	1.59m	0.66m	3.75m
18	Super Mario Galaxy	Wii	Nintendo	1.66m	1.46m	0.22m	3.34m

A number of notable games are absent from the list of 3 million + sellers. Little Big Planet, Wii Music, Animal Crossing: City Folk, Call of Duty: World at War (PS3/Wii), Fallout 3, Fable II, Left 4 Dead, the various Rockbands and Guitar Heros, Resistance 2 and other touted games did not sell 3 million units on a single platform. Combined across multiple platforms, Guitar Hero: World Tour, Madden 2008, PES, Rockband 2, Call of Duty 4, Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Vegas 2, Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock, Rockband, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed, Lego Indiana Jones, and others sold in excess of 3 million units.

Among the games to sell over three million on a single platform, Nintendo platforms had 13 of the 18 positions. The Xbox 360 and PS3 games which did chart reached as many as a quarter of all people who own either console. If you believe that only people who bought the Xbox 360 in 2008 bought GTAIV, then the attach rate jumps to over 50%. Wii had a similar phenomenon. If you believe only people who bought Wii in 2008 bought Mario Kart or Wii Fit, the games achieve a 50% attach rate. Of the total user base, Mario Kart Wii was bought by roughly 1 out 3 Wii owners in 2008 although if Wii Fit had released a few weeks earlier in the western markets it would have topped Mario Kart Wii. The other interesting thing about the list is that roughly half of the top sellers released before 2008. Even among the games to top 3m and release in 2008, Mario Kart Wii, GTA PS3, GTA 360, Wii Fit, Metal Gear Solid 4, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, and Pokemon Diamond/Pearl all released in the markets before the holiday software glut began in October 2008. The only two games to top 3m for the year and release after October were Call of Duty: World at War for Xbox 360 and Gears of War 2 for Xbox 360.

Hopefully the top content will be spread around more evenly from now on as a result.

Conclusions

With Wii set to reach 50% market share in every world market against the PS3-360 tandem, it is possible that the list of games to sell over 3m units in 2009 will be similarly Nintendo centric. On the other hand, DS is probably going to slow down at least a little bit in the west next year, and if Xbox 360 and PS3 can maintain their attach rates they may be able to pick up some of that slack. There are 7 games in 2009 which are likely to atually release and which likely will sell over 3m copies worldwide. These titles are:

1) Dragon Quest IX (DS/March 2009 in Japan)

2) Wii Sports Resort (Wii/ ?)

3) Gran Turismo 5 (PS3)

4) Resident Evil 5 (360)

5) Halo Wars (360)

6) Pokemon Platinum (DS)

7) Call of Duty Next (360)

Beyond these, a number of other titles will have a fair shot if they release at all or release in enough regions and come out at the right time of year.

1) Final Fantasy XIII (it will need to release in two regions at least)

2) Punch Out (originals were million sellers on NES/SNES, will need to do well in Europe)

3) Resident Evil 5 (PS3 – it could happen but this will be the first RE on a Microsoft console, and sales will be dependent on the Americas)

4) GTA: China Town (Needs a worldwide release – can’t see more than 400k in Japan, so it would have to do ~2.6m total in Americas/Others)

5) God of War III (could probably do it if it was the big holiday game worldwide complimenting Gran Turismo 5 and/or Final Fantasy XIII)

Lastly, these ten titles are long shots. They either a) don’t exist b) won’t release in 2009 or c) won’t sell 3m in 2009. Consider them 10:1 odds against:

1) Big EAD Project (Zelda Wii or Pikmin 3?)

2) Ubisoft TMNT Fighter (Wii)

3) Metal Gear Solid 4 (360)

4) Alan Wake (360)

5) Killzone 2 (PS3)

6) Monster Hunter 3 (Wii)

7) Ubisoft sequel (Red Steel 2? Assassin’s Creed 2? Rayman platformer?)

8) Duke Nukem (has to come out sometime…)

9) Dreamcast-10 year anniversary sequel from Sega (Jet Set, Shenume?)

10) Rare sequel (Perfect Dark/Battletoads/Conker?) for 360

Alongside the new titles, many of the games to sell 3m units in 2008 should do so again in 2009. A few titles which released late in 2008 may also end up selling 3m in 2009 after not selling 3m in 2008. At the end of 2009, most of these games should also be over 3m in yearly sales in addition to the new games cited above.

Wii

1) Animal Crossing

2) Mario Kart

3) Wii Fit

4) Wii Play

5) Wii Music

Xbox 360

1) Grand Theft Auto IV

PS3

1) Grand Theft Auto IV

1) Nintendogs

2) Brain Training

3) Brain Training 2

4) New Super Mario Brothers

5) Mario Kart DS

As with 2008, there should be roughly 15-25 games which sell over 3m units in 2009 on the current machines.

With the software that is coming, and the likelihood of more price drops for hardware, 2009 should be an even bigger year for the videogame industry than 2008 was. Worldwide hardware sales of 28-35m Wii, 28-32m DS, 9-13m PSP, 9-13m 360, 10-14m PS3, and 5-7.5m PS2 are entirely possible. If you take the midpoint of those ranges, you get another 100m+ machines sold in 2009 which, with greater software sales from much bigger bases, could easily make it the best year for videogame sales and content ever.

Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com

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Kenryoku_Maxis (on 13 January 2009)

Third Parties are TOTALLY gonna make games for Nintendo now! Look at the chart!

/sarcasm

Pristine20 (on 12 January 2009)

Ps3 isn't doomed thanks to the niche few who love it lol. thanks self lol

Seraphic_Sixaxis (on 11 January 2009)

Wow, this must have taken alot of work congrats!

My opinion as in order...

1) Wow...Nintendo....Just wow....... no words here... I may hate the Wii with holy gaming fury but damn.... Undeniable.... And the DS?...wtf?

2) Xbox 360.................11%? I've got nothing to say...Its awkward.

3) PS3... Well done it did much better then most people thought, even my self congrats sony for stayin alive and doing well.

Overall, Gaming in general looks Solid as ever!

TheSource (on 09 January 2009)

Wii Sports sold 24m units in 2008. Its clearly the best selling game of all time but since it is mentioned for Japan top sellers, and included in the Wii-package for the Americas and Others there is no reason to mention it when you can do the math yourself.

alexdude1991 (on 09 January 2009)

So where's wii sports on the software charts? I thought it was the best selling game of all time? I thought it counted as sales because it was included in the price of the wii?

Max-36 (on 09 January 2009)

XBOX sales will improve from 08 because MS has many first party tittles coming out this year HALO3:ODST,FORZA 3,Alan Wake,HALO WARS just name a few...

The_vagabond7 (on 09 January 2009)

Wow, this site should really be proud of the sort of ridiculously detailed in depth analysis it provides. I just read all of that (took quite a while) and I'm very impressed.

outlawauron (on 09 January 2009)

Wow, that must have been a lot of work.

I'm mostly surprised by TheSource not mentioning Halo: ODST not being mentioned for selling 3 mil in 2009.

Pika-Boo! (on 09 January 2009)

I love these comprehensive breakdowns that The Source gives us… extremely informative and obviously very time-consuming on his part, but very much appreciated by us lowly mortals!

I always read them from beginning to end - and invariably learn something new each time.

Source … you da’ man!! :o)

Retrasado (on 09 January 2009)

impressive article. took me 15 minutes to read, but it was worth it. I actually feel smart now...

Dante G (on 09 January 2009)

I'm very impressed with the ps2 performance. GG to all the new owners of PS2. You'll have a great time with it.

RED53DEVILS (on 09 January 2009)

PS2 is still doing great

Brice.thebaud (on 09 January 2009)

Thanks for this work.
Did you write something similar last year?

bigjon (on 09 January 2009)

omg, that looks Like a ton of work, good job. I agree with most of what you said, and considering how much you said that is impressive.

hmm, I personally think MKWii is the shocker of the year, at this time 1 year ago it was all about Brawl, and Oh, ya, MK that should do well in others.... I also doupt GTA4 will sell 3 million more on either the 360 or the PS3... I am thinking 3 million combined, the plethora of cheap used copies will kill the legs.

BenVTrigger (on 08 January 2009)

Good though I believe Killzone 2 will probably hit 3 million

and i can guarantee you that Halo 3:ODST will sell 3 million+ if it makes it out early enough. All you have to do is go to Bungie.net and see the thousand of people freaking about that game

Steve 3.2 (on 08 January 2009)

Great write up as always! I was wondering if you have taken the current ecconomic climate in creating your predictions for next year. And while most expect a price cut for the PS3 in 2009, what are you thoughts or guess for the chance and amount for all of the current systems available?

mancho.barrero (on 08 January 2009)

Well... i can´t imagine why all fans are always saying bad things about the fans from the other consoles... but that's just me... i can see the Wii dominating this year by a wide margin too... the 360 being powerfull in America, and if the (price-cut) of the PS3 ever happens it will help Sony, but from what i've read, it's still more expensive to create a PS3, so they are still losing money with each PS3 they are selling... if that doesn´t change i can see the PS3 being abandoned by Sony.

Resident_Hazard (on 08 January 2009)

Ha, I knew that the Xbox360 outsold the PS3 for 2008. The Sony fanboys kept talkin' shit the whole year just because the PS3 was slightly selling more than the Xbox360 roughly every month prior to September. Then the last quarter of the year, MS stuck back with a vengeance.

Dgc1808 (on 08 January 2009)

People shouldn't expect so much from KZ2...

Theo (on 08 January 2009)

Alot of my m8's who don't have a Ps3 only inteded to buy one for the games that they bought a ps2 for. Some of them are fans waiting for Gran Turismo and nothing else and aren't bothered to get a ps3 until then while waiting for the price to keep coming down. Other people I know are waiting for FFXIII:Versus and some others are waiting for God of War 3. I'm sure others are gonna be reeled in by Killzone 2 and everybody else I know already have a Ps3. Sony always had a good spread of variety with their games and '09 is gonna flush out those last few gaps.

The ps2 never sold as quickly and frantically as the Wii has, it sold gradually while offering a wide range of games to a wide audience.

The 360 is doing very well in America but I'm guessing that's because they like guns and like shooting things and waging war, and thinking that Israel invading Palestine is perfectly ok.

And the Wii is selling so well globally because there is a built-in wireless mind-control device that hypnotises mothers, aunts and uncles into buying it for their children, nephews, nieces and themselves.

Hustlin (on 08 January 2009)

KZ2 will shatter 3M. Being a beta tester I think people will buy the console just for Killzone2

Games fanboy (on 08 January 2009)

And even if i dont have an ps3 so do i belive killzone 2 could boost ps3 sales.
It simply looks awesome and epic on ign videos.

Games fanboy (on 08 January 2009)

Kantor
You could be suprised about the conduit as its an third party aaa fps title for the wii and extremely hyped in wii comunitys.
Many of the fps titles on wii are extremely bad and crappy ports so no wonder if they sell badly.
Conduit are one of the wii titles with most preorders this year for an wii third party game.

pnmen (on 08 January 2009)

great article!
but I think the 360 will continue to grow in 2009. The price cut had a massive effect. only a 100$ / € price cut for the PS3 could contain this trend.

anyway, thanks to the team. VGchartz has become a must read web site in 2008 for any console lover.

Kai Master (on 08 January 2009)

is the 33M sold DS in a year a record? And the Wii en 2009 could sell up to 35M?... interesting!

Phobos (on 08 January 2009)

good analysis.

"8) Duke Nukem (has to come out sometime…)"-why

Snake (on 08 January 2009)

CMoney says:
Horrible PS3 sales for 2008 which was supposed to be "The year of the ps3"

Plummeting psp and ps2 sales = terrible news for sony
Sony is on the verge of a financial meltdown

how about you read the text again and see, PSP is outselling 360. and you should READ the sentece which says: ''Sony has to be – and should be pleased with the results here''

tryffel8 (on 08 January 2009)

the GTA-games has been out of the top 50 charts for ages in every region. It wont sell mutch in 2009. But super smash bros and mario kart will still be going strong

CrunkE4 (on 08 January 2009)

It's so weird the country is in a recession and we (as a country) spent so much money on entertainment in 08. Besides video game industry always dominating the entertainment world there were other entertainment industries that did really well 08 also, still no comparison to the video game industry =). 1 more thing am I only one who thinks that the video game industry is probably going to be the first trillion dollar industry?

Kantor (on 08 January 2009)

Lol, the Conduit is not going to be a 3 million seller. FPS just doesn't sell on Wii.

TheConduit (on 08 January 2009)

What about the Conduit.

kazenolalala (on 08 January 2009)

bye 08

Simulacrum (on 08 January 2009)

Ok I managed to read it and by eyes started to weird colour problems..Now im Ok tho.
It seems Wii will live only with games that was released in 2007-2008.Conduit seems good tho,but Wii's userbase ain't Fps,like we saw on Cod 4 and Metroid Prime 3.
What for Ds?Dragon quest,which is big only in Japan.DsI surely will boost sales.
For Xbox 360?Halos and few others,like Alan Wake.
For PS3?Uncharted 2,will most likely sell at least 2m,and if bundled,it goes for 3m,since Uncharted 1 is what 2.5m?
Killzone 2,most likely sell over 2m,I would say 3M.
Infamous could be black sheep and sell millions,but I expect that it sells about 1,5m-3m.
GT5 easily,but it has been said to be in 2010.
Final Fantasy XIII most likely will come in late 2009,since 2hour demo is coming soon,and will easily sell 3m on PS3,as well as Xbox 360 (maybe).
Cod MW 2 will most likely sell like Cod 4.

Kantor (on 08 January 2009)

I think we need a thread on this so we can discuss it properly...

Kantor (on 08 January 2009)

Great analysis. A couple of comments:

-There's no third party WW software table. Could you add one of those, please?

-I disagree with your statement about Killzone 2. I'd say it's likely to sell 3 million units, if it is advertised properly and gets good enough reviews- 5/5 from OPM is a good starting point, but it needs 9+ from GameSpot and IGN, at least an 8 from EuroGamer and Edge and A- or higher from 1UP. With everything I mentioned, I say it has an excellent chance of cracking 3 million. Especially seeing as it releases in February.

-Halo 3 ODST is noticeably missing from the 2009 3 million+ list.

-Resident Evil 5 (X360) is certainly going to sell 3 million in 2009? You said it yourself, RE5 is the first RE on a Microsoft console, the fanbase is largely missing. I think it will be lucky to get 3 million LT.

-It is somewhat confusing that you think inFamous and Heavy Rain have more chance of crossing 3 million than Killzone 2...

Sardauk (on 08 January 2009)

@ultraslick
This looks realistic indeed.

PS360ForTheWin (on 08 January 2009)

message to nintendo: 1st party titles = super, better 3rd party support is needed

MontanaHatchet (on 08 January 2009)

"The Call of Duty series seems to get more and more front loaded by year. Not convinced this version will track ahead long term."

Maybe it's just getting more popular year after year? We don't really have that much room for comparison anyways. Call of Duty 3 (on the 360) had a smaller launch than Call of Duty 2 but ended up selling more long term. This was mainly because it launched up against Gears of War, one of the biggest games on the console. Call of Duty 4 smashed 3 both first week and long term, mainly because it was such an amazing and hyped game. Call of Duty 5 is selling even more first week, which is likely due to the higher userbases and increasing popularity for the series. Maybe it won't have as long legs, but you really have no evidence to back that up.

ultraslick (on 08 January 2009)

I honestly do believe Killzone 2 will pass 3 million in '09. Make fun of me if you want, but it seems like a "no brainer" to me.

NNN2004 (on 08 January 2009)

gears 2 beat MGS 4 sales with only 2 months ?!

Orca_Azure (on 08 January 2009)

Awesome article. If the 360 lands G.o.t.P, I think Sony's future will be incredibly bleak. They already lost FFXIII, GTAIV, and a whole bunch of other titles. If they lose metal gear...The ps3 will basically be a 360 with fewer titles.
I STILL don't believe how nintendo has the market :p considering the gamecube was so....eh.

zaire2005 (on 08 January 2009)

i have a wii and have not played it since 06 the machine is horrible it is not for hardcore gamers and for the ps3 too me they only have 2 great titles heavenly sword and metalgear i brought lil big planet its horrible and rfom2.to me the controller is not good for shooters.the 360 rulez hands down

im_sneaky (on 08 January 2009)

Thats a good article, though i didnt read all of it.

Endz (on 07 January 2009)

DSi isn't even released worldwide yet, DS sales are not going to decline enough to point to saturation during this year. People love DS, they will buy different colors even if they have DS, they will buy special editions even if they have multiple DSs. People with DSL will buy DSi, a new edition I think will offset saturation points worldwide for the DS.

I wonder how many over 4mil games Wii will have, next Zelda, Mario, Resort and maybe Pikmin are set in stone for that. Many other games have good chances.

With the market expanding I think there is room for 3 consoles to do good not like PS2 reign- GC and Xbox look like jokes compared to PS2 sales. In this gen with the Wii expansion of the market there is more room for stellar sales across all the consoles (none are going to stop around the low 20 mil range and Wii might pass PS2 sales).

Arm (on 07 January 2009)

@TheSource says:
DS sold 33m this year, how much higher can it go?

This year DQ IX( Japan) + DSi

DSi launch rest of the world? possible

At some point the DS will reach mass saturation but hopefully Ninty will be releasing a new system. Iphone might be slowly testing waters and then the psp2. I can only see how tight the handheld market is going to get soon.

Cueil (on 07 January 2009)

Microsoft isn't anywhere near a saturation point with the Arcade units so I don't see them being down this year... certainlly if they are it wont be nearly as horrible as double digits. Sony's PS3 has reached saturation a bit earlier then I expected due to the economic climate, but a price drop shouldn't put them to much ahead of what they did this year unless things start looking up for 10 and 11. I don't think Sony will be inclined to drop their price early on outside of Europe with the weak dollar hurting them already. I think that Nintendo will keep kicking ass and Microsoft will show us how they became the most powerful software company in the world... shrewd minds and taking advantage of competitor's weakness.

The Ghost of RubangB (on 07 January 2009)

Damn. That article was one hell of a wild ride. Great work, as usual. I have committed it all to memory and shall use it to support my trolling.

Paperdiego (on 07 January 2009)

@ MANUELF

as much as i love ssbb i dont think it will sell over 3 million in 2009. i guess we will see this time next year.

a3hmax (on 07 January 2009)

SONY have made a very bad job.
Microsoft it´s making the effort
Nintendo Only need invest more on second party releases for a 09 smash.

1.- Ninja turtles game only wiil be a real success if Konami make it.
2.- Metal gear on 360 still too much sci fi, with the Sony rstrictions.
3.- The bad situation for Third parties in Japan can extend for America and Europe if they don´t make a better effort.
4.- Sony should shut up and work on total retrocompatibility, that really boost PS3 sales, but they don´t want made that because of the PSN software sales for old games.

radha (on 07 January 2009)

so vgc thinks the ps3's situation will turn and that the console will sell better in 2009???????? GREAT!!!

kevin the wiiite (on 07 January 2009)

I completely agree with everything in this article except for one thing: the conduit not even being given a shot at hitting 3 million on a console that will have over 50 million sales by the time it comes out. If Call of Duty can hit 4 million in just the Christmas season on the Xbox 360's 27 million, I just can't see The Conduit not hitting 3 million.

TheSource (on 07 January 2009)

The Call of Duty series seems to get more and more front loaded by year. Not convinced this version will track ahead long term. Obviously it depends on when the next game releases too. Thats why all these cases are just estimates until we get further information to adjust for mitigating factors.

erikers (on 07 January 2009)

Well...I don't expect Bioshock 2 to do 3 million either but that's what a longshot is.

As for COD 4 (360), it finished 2007 at 3.94 million worldwide. It finished at 2.94 worldwide in 2008. It BARELY missed. If that isn't a clue that World at War, a game tracking ahead of COD 4 will do 3 million then I don't know what is. Look into it a little more closely and tell me what you think.

TheSource (on 07 January 2009)

Call of Duty 4 didn't sell 3m in 2008 for 360 after releasing in 2007 which is why I didn't include COD:WaW for 2009. Bioshock 1 hasn't sold 3m yet and its been out like 15 months so I chose to include Duke Nukem for kicks and giggles...

The games are long shots though. I'd imagine only one of them will actually sell 3m which is why I gave 10:1 odds against.

erikers (on 07 January 2009)

COD: World At War (360) is much more likely to sell 3 million in 2009 than GTA IV is. No idea why you would put GTA over it. And like was said before, Halo 3: ODST is coming out and could make it depending on which month it comes out.

Also, for the 10:1 longshots, Bioshock 2 is coming out and that's a better choice than something like a Duke Nukem game that won't even come out.

paulkelly1980 (on 07 January 2009)

so happy to see the game Industry in such good shape. my long shot for 2009 is my sims kart. stay with me on this one. i work in a big office and nearly all the women aged say 16-35 all the do all day is talk about how much fun they had playing mario kart the night before, they even play each other online!! so with the right marketing it could be huge.

CMoney (on 07 January 2009)

Horrible PS3 sales for 2008 which was supposed to be "The year of the ps3"

Plummeting psp and ps2 sales = terrible news for sony
Sony is on the verge of a financial meltdown

Erik Aston (on 07 January 2009)

This article is the sixth on the front page of Digg. I saw it at #1 on the Digg list on PopURLs, though that may just mean it was the most recent story to go popular.

It is second on the front page of Gaming on Digg, and needs just a few Diggs to reach the top 10 sidebar of Gaming on Digg. http://digg.com/gaming

Jlmadyson (on 07 January 2009)

360 has room for price a cut, but likely not until the fall. Problem for the PS3 as it is likely to sink like rock post Christmas, and from everything I'm reading that price cut talk sounds like it might not even happen until fall because of Sony's very poor fiscal situation. With or without KZ2 it’s going to be a very rough Q1 from what I’m seeing. That could extend itself indefinitely until a meaty price cut. What the PS3 could have going for itself is at least getting GT5 and FF XIII by the holiday season in Japan. Euro release of GT5 would help even more by year end. They couple that with a timely price cut and that would help a lot. Flip side of that is if they wait that long for a price cut that 8 million lead the 360 has now could easily go to 10 million.

If they only do a $50 price cut like Pachter is talking in April and none in the fall they lose any and all momentum to any price cut from the 360 during key holiday season, again. Once again another Halo product from Bungee will help push sales during that key time frame. I believe for the most part Sony has revealed its hand for the year like they did last year. Although, there maybe a couple of titles left for them in 09 to reveal, not sure. On Microsoft side, like last year at this time I do not believe they have revealed all of there hand and they always have a few surprises. For what you are forecasting to happen Sony would need all it’s cards to fall into place, two timely price cuts(not one) and big software at the end of the year. If MS manages to put out good software again for the holidays with even a relatively small price cut they will have the upper hand again for the year, and Sony cannot simply hope one $50 price cut will save them this year.

I had my reasons at this time last year and relatively speaking nothing has changed on that front. I didn’t even expect for MS to expand that lead of 5 million or so to 8 million last year, and I can easily see that gap growing in 2009 as well. MS has been playing there cards entirely right this generation and they even expect a price cut incoming. They have matched and overmatched Sony in every move to date so I’m not going to doubt them yet. I also do not buy this third year peak stuff either. This gen is just starting in my opinion, and it could be the longest yet. I’m pretty sure MS thinks that as well. Pretty much all the good third party software will continue to help them move big numbers in the years to come at the cheapest entry point price while providing solid first party entries as well.

SlorgNet (on 07 January 2009)

Excellent analysis. It looks like the godawful economy is accelerating history, by driving consumers away from overpriced 20th century media (cable TV, DVDs) and towards 21st century media.

One minor quibble: I'm not sure it makes sense to say the DS is picking up where the PS2 is leaving off. Mobile platforms have a very different logic than home consoles, so it may make more sense to think about the DS as competing against the iPod. But that's just my own wacky way of thinking.

Also, any chance VGChartz can store this post permanently, as a full-page archive? We do lots of on the fly analysis, but it would be nice to have a "Reports" or "Analysis" page, where these kinds of in-depth reports can be stored.

TheTruthHurts! (on 07 January 2009)

Nice job.....I bet that took a lot of work, props!

Jlmadyson (on 07 January 2009)

PS3 sales up 20-40%, DS, PSP, and Xbox 360 down 10-25%, and PS2 down 30-50% from 2008 levels.

Yea, I don't think so. But then again we have seen this kind of "analysis" before. Kind of like last year with every other analyst calling the same.

TheSource (on 07 January 2009)

DS sold 33m this year, how much higher can it go? Microsoft isn't going to be as price cut happy this year. PS2 is getting squeezed off shelves. PSP could be up or down but it probably won't be by more than 15% either way. Wii and PS3 should be up.

You could be right, but I don't think its as far fetched for 2009 as you think.

sebzhdrck (on 07 January 2009)

VGC really like numbers, good. PS3, better year after year. 2009 time for PS3 price cut and finish the war.

woopah (on 07 January 2009)

im glad big EAD project made its way in. looking at the bestsellers you can see its pretty likey that nintendo will have more than wii sports reort to sell over 3 million in 2009. if punchout does it that would be awesome. sadly seems pretty unlikely for S&P2

Killergran (on 07 January 2009)

Awesome writeup! Thanks a lot!

misterd (on 07 January 2009)

Buht, buht, teh Killzone2 iz gonna saves PS3! It cells 10millions copyz launch day! Column iz stoopit.

Passenger57 (on 07 January 2009)

I highly doubt GTA4 is going to do another 3 mil, but stranger things have happened?

tuoyo (on 07 January 2009)

lol at Cooking Mama now being considered an established franchise. If Carnival Games Mini Golf can make it to a million Carnival Games will also become an established franchise despite being the most hated game on VGChartz (or does that title go to Wii Music).

efestione (on 07 January 2009)

nintendo reigns over the world.. bwah bwah!

Maynard_Tool (on 07 January 2009)

Damn!!!! looking at this.... im speechless :O

Nintendo totally OWNS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lopoto (on 07 January 2009)

u forgot halo3: odst in the games that will sell more than 3 million copies :)

Gamerace (on 07 January 2009)

RE 4 never sold 3m on a single platform, not even on PS2. RE5 seems a bit of a departure for the series to be more shooter centric and less atmospheric which could help or hinder sales. I think that's a long shot either way. GTA:CW - DS is also a looong shot IMO.

jerry (on 07 January 2009)

WTF Metal Gear solid 4 (360)?????

Godot (on 07 January 2009)

Great read as usual. I highly doubt any of the GTA will sell 3m in 09 though. It seems like GTA IV doesn't have so much legs after all. I also don't think GoW would sell 3m.

luisgvm (on 07 January 2009)

wow japan shrink badly why? well ps3 dint do that bad as people was saying it went up in the YOY sales lets hope for a price cut in 09¡¡¡¡¡¡ and 360 went up a lot in the YOY sales good news too. and nothing else except NINTENDOMINATION jajaja.

TheSource (on 07 January 2009)

Smash is much more front loaded than the rest of the Nintendo games up here. The TMMNT game is down there as a long shot - its not likely at all, but the prospect of beating up childhood icons is intriguing. You'll notice all the long shots have major issues - Duke Nukem for instance.

FreeTalkLive (on 07 January 2009)

Manuelf, good point. However, since he included the TMNT Fighter, it looks as though the Source thinks that people will look at SSBB and TMNT Fighter and select the Turtles game, or at least many people will do this.

BengaBenga (on 07 January 2009)

Amazing article! Nintendomination is even more bizarre seeing it posted like this.

However I think your way too positive about software posibly selling over 3 million.

RE5 on 360 and PS3? Combined sales of 6 million is way too high for a RE title. I also don't believe GTA4 will sell another 6 million copies, seeing the first 8 moths sold 12 million.

Esmoreit (on 07 January 2009)

I'll need the weekend for a detailed read but... Damn...Nintendo has almost 2/3d of the sales-pie for themselves, those gluttons!
Software also sells like mad for them!

MANUELF (on 07 January 2009)

You think GTA4 on PS3 and X360 can sell 3 million in 2009 each but not SSBB?

RedWiizard (on 07 January 2009)

Good analysis.
Third party devs will eventually support the wii. Can't see how they can afford to avoid this platform. Surely the typical wii owners don't buy as many "core" games as PS360 owners but still...

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