Analyst Predicts Switch 2 to Sells 4.3 Million Units in the US in 2025 - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 08 January 2025 / 3,287 Views
Circana Executive Director and Video Game Industry Analyst Mat Piscatella has predicted the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 as long as it launches in the first half of the year.
"Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables)," said Piscatella.
"Expecting to see hardware constraints for several months after a significant early demand surge. And units sold will, of course, be dependent upon manufacturing capabilities and will. I still expect PlayStation 5 to rank 1st in overall hardware units sold in the US during the year."
The Nintendo Switch has gone on to sell 46.6 million units lifetime in the US and in November it surpassed the PlayStation 2 to become the second best-selling hardware platform of all-time in the US. Only the Nintendo DS has sold more.
Nintendo has confirmed it will be unveiling the Nintendo Switch 2 by the end of March and the console will be backwards compatible with the original Switch.
Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables).
— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 11:09 AM
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can contact the author on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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Wouldn't it make quite a big difference, if it would launch in March or June? (~0.6 to 0.9M)
According to official shipment data, NA figures for NSW have never dipped below 5mil in any fiscal year (and presumably US figures have never dipped below 3.5-4mil in any given fiscal year) (excluding F'2017 which only comprised of a single month).
....This projection seems incredibly low, no?
Depends on when it releases. This is assuming it launches in the first half of 2025, so no later than the end of June. If it launches in the 2nd half, from July onwards, then 4.3 million in just 6 months would be incredible!
"Assuming H1 launch" = assuming lauch during first half of 2025 (i assume that's what this means).
Though after rereading the projection, I'm realizing these figures wouldn't even be too bad. For wtvr reason, I thought they were saying first half of calendar 2025 but only 4.3mil over the fiscal year...which would be a little low compared to NSW.
Obviously it depends om many factors but to clarify, isn't he talking about sales and not shipments? Interestingly, he is also predicting that all consoles will sell about 12.9 million units in 2025. Interestingly VGChartz has America 2024 sales at 10.7 million through November. We should expect at least 2 million for Decmeber bringing the total to at least 12.9 million units. So this is to say almost exaxtly inline with Mat's 2025 predictions. I would say his prediction is reasonable.
yeah...i think one big thing is whethr GTAVI releases (concerning the 12.9mil figure). If it does release, then all systems will likely see YoY increases for 2025, making 12.9mil a pretty low estimate imo. As far as NSW2 is concerned: Nintendo needs games & good marketing. If they have this, and assuming the price tag isn't over $500, then i believe it's safe to assume a pretty strong first year.
hopefully they flood stores with enough units so scalpers end up having to sell at a loss i will be pre ordering mine for day one.. not from argos this time they charge right away so i paid months in advance on the original switch
They're not going to flood the stores enough to kill the scalpers. Doing that would make it appear as though the console is not popular. They want supply constraints to some degree. Shortages people want the system that much more, and it gives them some free publicity
lol making predictions before we know anything at all about the system, the games, the launch date, the price....facepalm to the max
Depends on price.
Nah. Remember? We can just get second jobs!
Seems reasonable.
i got 4.5 million +
That's reasonable, assuming it doesn't release until later in Q2, the price is reasonable, and there are no shortages. The Switch sold 4.87M in 2017, which was over a period of 10 months. If it only gets like 6-7 months instead of ten to rack up sales, it could have a baseline comparable to the Switch 1 but not enough time to match the Switch 1's 2017. If it releases in April, I think it'll probably be closer to the Switch's 2017.
Doesn't matter how many they make. It will sell out and people will claim its shortages.
Niah, more like 8million + with a worldwide total of more than 20million until the end of 2025, provided they can produce enough units.
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