Michael Pachter: Xbox Will Take Up to 45% of Next-Gen Market, Will be Hard to Outsell PS5 - News
by William D'Angelo , posted on 05 October 2020 / 3,705 Views
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter speaking in an interview with GamingBolt discussed the Xbox Series X and S and the sales potential of the console. The lower price point of the Xbox Series S, the Xbox All Access program, and stronger first-party lineup will help close the gap between the Xbox and PlayStation, according to Pachter.
"It’s really going to be interesting to see what happens with that cheaper Xbox, because purchase intent looks very low for that thing," said Pachter about the Xbox Series S.
"Mostly because I guess there’s some awareness that it has only a third of the teraflops the Series X does. And I don’t even know what a teraflop is, so I don’t know what that matters. What I do understand is that the Series S will play next-gen games, just not at 4K and 240fps or whatever.
"And I would say more than two-thirds of gaming households still don’t have a 4K TV, so if I don’t have a 4K TV, then I don’t really care about the higher end one, unless I buy a new TV – because even on 1080p, the games will look stunning. So I think that price point might be a differentiator, even though right now, early adopters and hardcore fans don’t seem to be too interested in it."
Pachter added that Xbox Game Pass and stronger first-party lineup will improve the Xbox marketshare next-generation, however, it likely won't reach 50 percent and outsell the PlayStation 5. He sees a split of 55-45 or 60-40 in favor of the PS5.
"I think Game Pass makes the Xbox audience bigger," Pachter said. "I think that for $40 a month, getting Game Pass, Xbox Live Gold, and an Xbox console will get them some marketshare, so I would say best case Xbox takes 45% of the market, and Sony keeps 55%. And worst case, 60-40. It will be hard for Microsoft to go over 50, because Sony just has a great brand and loyal fans in Japan and Europe.
"I think you’ll win a few of those customers with the cheaper Xbox, a few from Game Pass, a few from the Bethesda acquisition, a few more from the other acquisitions they have made. But it will be hard for them to go over 50% overall."
Pachter also discussed the Xbox All Access program, which allows people to purchase an Xbox Series X or Xbox Series with a monthly installment plan of 24 months. The program will be available in 12 countries when the consoles launch on November 10 and expand to more over time.
"I think the installment purchase, which is really what most cellphones do, makes consoles more affordable for a lot of people, because most people may not have $500 lying around for a new console," Pachter said.
"So that $40 a month plan that gets you Xbox Live and Game Pass, you don’t need to buy very many games, you can do a $40 a month plan and get a Series X, and then buy 2 games a year that aren’t on Game Pass, let’s say FIFA and Call of Duty, and that’s really it, otherwise you’re always going to have something to play. And that’s a pretty good deal. So, we’ll see how it goes, I’d be curious to see if it gains them more than 5 percentage points of marketshare."
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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I'm thinking 40% sounds reasonable, but I doubt they'll get 45%.
I'd bet 35% to 40%. So still a little better than this gen. I also expect the PS5 to sell as much or more than PS4.
It will indeed make their gaming pie bigger in this gen, even tho they’ve stated that console sales are not their primary focus. And that’s the merit of being flexible. Unfortunately, Sony relies heavily on their console and if it fails, we’ll see ‘em struggling once again.
PS5 sinking to the bottom of the sea confirmed.
It might be that close between Xbox SSX and PS5 in the U.S. But globally speaking I see no chance Xbox makes it close with PS5. PS5 kills Xbox SSX in regions outside the U.S
No, in the us, Xbox series X+S should beat PS5. Americans love shooter games and they want the most powerful console, which series X have over ps5. Even though Xbox one announcement and forced Kinect screwed up royally, it’s just a few millions behind ps4. Europe and Japan are where PlayStation will gain that total market share advantage.
No, in the us, Xbox series X+S should beat PS5. Americans love shooter games and they want the most powerful console, which series X have over ps5. Even though Xbox one announcement and forced Kinect screwed up royally, it’s just a few millions behind ps4. Europe and Japan are where PlayStation will gain that total market share advantage.
ps5 will dominate in the US , over the series s/x.
I'd say 30%....cause the Switch 2 will be coming to join soon too ;P
Love how people still pretend Nintendo doesn’t rxist.
hear hear
Total console market or market comapred to Playstation?
Total market: just no! they are going to be luck to gather anything near 25~30% market, it's not just about playstation, you need to count switch sales!
market comapred to Playstation: 45/55 agains playstation!? No way, 35~40/60~65 at best...
As long as it's competitive. The 5th and 6th generations were DOMINATED by Sony, and the 360 was able to get in there with the 7th gen, then Xbox plummeted in the 8th lol. Would love to see some closer competition. Closer competition means all gamers win. Coming from a PC player
POOF!
It's a first step that he admits not knowing something (teraflops). Next step should be that he realizes not knowing anything :P
in the usa maybe 50-50
but rest of the world i agree with javi
ps5 destroyz xbox
With Gamepass on PC and MS releasing all their games day one on PC I doubt MS will get a market share of 45% with their consoles. But I guess everything above like 35% would be already good enough with the extra revenue from PC.
I feel like Series S would need to be an amazing success for that to happen. I am disappointed by the Series S overall, but I would gladly buy one for $199. And to Pachter I repeat. The Series S does take advantage of 4K TVs, because 1440p is higher than 1080p. With said, even 720p titles take advantage of a 1080p TV.
That's playing a little fast and loose with 'taking advantage of 4K TV's'
Like going from a 200hp engine to a 600hp engine that's locked to 400hp. You're not taking advantage of the 600hp engine but it's an improvement which 1440p is... but.
"This 1440p game is really taking advantage of this 4K TV" just aint it.
Its simple, I am arguing if you upgrade from a 1080p TV to a 4K TV, the Series S is still taking advantage of it because it plays games at a higher resolution than a 1080p TV can handle.
On a side note I read the Series S can actually do 4K, but it sounds like it won't be common if at all. At the very least you would assume games with low GPU demands could do 4K.
I do agree that series S is MS wild card. It could be either a hit or a miss. Also I dont expect series S to hit 1440p most of the time. Ps5 is more powerful marketed as 4k but still doing 1440p in some games. I believe it will be a 1080 p 60 machine
As long as virtually every port is good, it seems like that alone should make the Series S a hit. My only concern is the RAM might be too much of a downgrade.
Launch is pretty important for Series S in my opinion. Because if the perception is the Series S does a good job running 9th gen content and is a significant upgrade over 8th gen, that will certainly encourage people to get it.
MS needs stress how well it works compared to Series X and even PS5. I know MS is instead saying games are developed for Series X first and scaled down for Series S. But the reality is most people are probably gonna buy a Series S so it needs to have great ports.
They'll hit 35%-40% marketshare between PS5 and Xbox Series, with Series S making up the vast majority of their console sales.
so , thats a big increase from where they at now, so sound like a win for them.
That's because it isn't their primary goal to sell consoles. I am more curious to know who would sell more subscriptions
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