NPD Analyst: Switch to Outsell PS4 and Xbox One in the US in 2019 - News
by William D'Angelo , posted on 01 March 2019 / 4,073 Views
NPD analyst Mat Piscatella has predicted the Nintendo Switch will outsell the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in 2019 in the US. The growth in gaming will also not be like it was in 2018 as the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are expected to decline in sales.
Piscatella said the Nintendo Switch will have more than a 35 percent marketshare in 2019. This will be driven by Pokémon and other key Nintendo franchise.
An interesting bit of information is that 86 percent of gaming content was sold digitally across platforms, including mobile for the 12 months ending September 30, 2018. That is expected to grow to 90 percent.
Check out all the predictions from Piscatella below:
2019 US Predictions - Spending on digital content to account for 90% of total content spending - According to NPD's GMD report, 86% of content was sold digitally across all platforms (incl mobile) by 12 months ending Q3 '18. Digital growth should force more share to shift.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions - In console hardware, Switch grows, leads market - I have Switch achieving more than 35 share of hardware unit sales in the US in 2019, with Pokémon and continued strength of Nintendo's evergreen franchises driving the performance.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions - Subscription spending continues to rapidly grow - More services, more consumer choice, as well as deeper and broader offerings will allow subscription spending growth to accelerate throughout the year.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions - '18 success will lead to tough comps in console SW - 2018 was a remarkable year of titles released from some of the most successful franchises and studios. Many months in 2019 will fail to have the breadth and depth of content offerings, leading to declines.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions - More focus on facilitating social hangouts in games -Making it easy for friends to play together has been a success driver for some recent games. Titles that focus on making that experience great should return higher sales and engagement than if they did not
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions - More focus on facilitating social hangouts in games -Making it easy for friends to play together has been a success driver for some recent games. Titles that focus on making that experience great should return higher sales and engagement than if they did not
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
2019 US Predictions - Streaming offerings outpace consumer adoption - There are huge incentives for companies to go streaming, and '19 will bring many announcements. But consumer adoption will come slowly. I expect a lot of noise in 2019, with little short-term consumer payoff.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
TL;DR - 2019 will be a year of significant change and transition in gaming, and we should not expect to see the kind of growth we've seen in 2018. Switch will pull ahead in Console as we move to predicted 2020 next gen for MS/Sony. Could be a bumpy year.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) January 2, 2019
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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Using projections of 2m for Switch, 1m for PS4 and 1.2m for XB1 for December 2018, the yearly tally for the three consoles in 2018 would be 5.85m for Switch (36.5%), 5.52m for PS4 (34.5%) and 4.64m for XB1 (29%). These values should be within a margin of plus/minus 2 percent points of the actual results that will be known in a couple of weeks. Piscatella's prediction of 35% in 2019 is a headscratcher because of how lowballed it is. If Switch is supposed to grow and both PS4 and XB1 are supposed to decline, then the minimum value he should have used is 40%. If we assume that console sales remain flat in 2019 (16m), 40% for Switch would require 6.4m, leaving example figures of 5.2m for PS4 and 4.4m for XB1.
I agree. His prediction is overly conservative and doesn't add up.
Not surprised, as PS4 and X1 are getting ready for next gen.
Crazy talk. If Nintendo places a Switch Pro correctly, this hardware line could compete with the DS line.
35 percent market share? C'mon, can't you at least predict above 40? How disappointing 35 percent would be.
Why down voting? We already hat 36 % in November: http://www.vgchartz.com/article/435139/switch-vs-ps4-vs-xbox-one-global-lifetime-salesnovember-2018/
Why down voting? We already had 36 % in November...
They're downvoting because they're not too bright and/or don't understand math.
If Switch outsells both PS4 and X1 and only has 35 percent marketshare, that means that it sold basically equal to both (35/33/32 or 35/34/31). That would not be a good result for Nintendo given how old its competition is.
Does it really require analysis? It should be clear to everyone that the PS4 and XB1 are at the end of their generation, but the switch is not even 2 years on the market. With the release of the PS5 and XB(2) in 2020 the tide will turn again. It is unlikely that Nintendo will counter this with an update (Switch Pro?) or new hardware.
The Switch NEEDS to be the best selling console in the world in 2019 by a large margin. If the console can't outsell the 5-6 year old PS4 that already has a massive install base this year Nintendo may have to readjust their predictions. This is the year for Nintendo to double down on their good start to the Switch's life and I think that if Nintendo have the games ready they could sell 20 million Switch consoles in the calendar year of 2019.
He truly is captain obvious. Switch almost outsold PS4 on 2018 and the most likely (99.999%) outcome for 2019 is PS4 to drop some 5-15% and Switch probably grow as much, so Switch outselling PS4 is almost a given and X1 don't even count in this.
I hope so, the PS4 is 5 years old with a massive install base of over 90 million Sony is running out of gamer's to sell their console to called market saturation
It is obvious Sony do not care. You can tell by not doing any sale on december. Ps4 is about to hit 90m and according to rumors, ps5 will be announced next year.
They said the same this year and the PS4 won America
Did it though? I'm seeing less than a 600,000 gap between the two according to this site with numbers updated only up to 12/8 in a month where it is being said the Switch outsold the PS4 by 1m.
90% of the expenditure will be digital? It seems that the physical market for sellers is about to be shaken and sales numbers will become increasingly more deductive while depending on the holders to be officially disclosed.
Including Mobile and PC, which are essentialy 100% digital.
Console still below 50%.
Bring on next gen, and wonder if the next pokemon will actually be any good.
It wouldnt be too surprising. Both ps4 and xbox one are entering their 6th year. Since when did a 6 year old nintendo console outsell a playstation home console in the same year?
In 2010 the 6 year old DS nearly doubled Sony’s current top selling console the PS3.
current to 2010, that is =P
