NPD Analyst Predicts Elden Ring to Outsell Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 in 2022 in the US - News
by William D'Angelo , posted on 07 July 2022 / 2,931 Views
NPD video game industry analyst Mat Piscatella has released his video game predictions for the US for the rest of 2022.
He expects the video game market in the US to reach $55.5 billion for 2022. This is an 8.7 percent drop compared to 2021, which saw consumers spend $60.8 billion on video games. The figures is also down slightly compared to 2020, but is up by a fair amount compared to 2019.
"Some of the drivers of the decline include the return of experiential spending, higher prices in everyday spending categories such as food and fuel, the uncertain supply of video game console hardware and certain accessories such as gamepads, and a lighter release slate of games, among others," said Piscatella.
"The surge in video game players and engagement the market experienced during 2020 and 2021 has leveled off, and we are now seeing more entertainment opportunities emerge that compete for consumer attention and, of course, dollars."
When it comes to hardware, he expects shortages to continue into 2023, particularly when it comes to the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X.
"In hardware, the video game console market has yet to reflect normalized demand given ongoing supply constraints, particularly on new generation systems such as the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X," he said. "This is not likely to change throughout 2022 and will lead to continued uncertainty for the market."
He added, "Hardware shortages will continue into 2023, particularly on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, while potentially impacting other segments such as VR."
Piscatella says the Xbox Series X|S will be the only console hardware platform to see improvement when it comes to dollar sales.
He does expect the Switch to lead in units sold, while when it comes to dollar sales race will be close between the big three.
"Switch will lead 2022 console hardware in units sold, with dollar leadership a too-close-to-call race between Switch, PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series," he said.
"Xbox Series will be the only console hardware platform to show dollar sales growth compared to 2021."
Piscatella predicts Elden Ring will be the best-selling game in the US in 2022, which would be only the third time since 2009 a Call of Duty game did not finish in first. However, he predicts Call of Duty will be the best-selling franchise for the 14th straight year.
He has predicted the top 10 best-selling video games in alphabetical order for 2022 will be Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Elden Ring, God of War Ragnarök, Gotham Knights, Horizon: Forbidden West, LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga, Madden NFL 23, NBA 2K23, Pokémon Legends: Arceus, and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can contact the author on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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Even if it doesn't happen thats still crazy. Never in a million years would I think I would hear that a Souls game would outsell COD.
maybe because time on the market, lifetime i do not see it!
Elden ring was just a bomb getting ready to be set off!
The fuse the detonator were the soulsbornekiro franchise!
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Congrats to fromsoft for nuking Activision and showing them how to make a proper video game!
Been following the souls games since Dark Souls 1, what is happenning withe the "frenchise" is unbelieavable. Kudos for them to sticking with their formula and delivering what their core audience wanted. Cant wait for their new game.
I wonder how much is underperformed. I doubt it went under 10 million but who knows, maybe they are doing a SquareEnix.
