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Michael Pachter: Switch Successor Won't Release Until 2024 at the Earliest

Michael Pachter: Switch Successor Won't Release Until 2024 at the Earliest - News

by William D'Angelo , posted on 01 November 2021 / 3,278 Views

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter in the latest Pachter Factor Q&A discussed when Nintendo will likely release the successor to the Switch and whether if the power of Nintendo hardware matters at all.

"I think that probably the earliest you're going to see a new console is [2024] and more likely [2025]," said Pachter. "So again, not because they can't, they can, it's because they're making so money making Switches."

He added, "If the Switch is still $300 it will drop to $250 likely after Christmas and once supply and demand get in balance again. The OLED will become the de facto model of $300. But they're minting money at $300. 

"That thing costs them less than $150 to make. Probably less than $100. So they're able to make a ton of money as long. As long as they are what's the rush [to] bring out a new console."

Pachter did say if Nintendo believed Microsoft and Sony were competition they would release a new console sooner. However, Pachter says Nintendo doesn't consider Microsoft and Sony competition. 

"If they believe the competition was Microsoft and Sony they would [release a more powerful console]," said Pachter. "This [goes] is back to Mr. Iwata and his blue ocean strategy. That's the mantra of the company.

'[Nintendo is] absolutely convinced that they're playing on a different playground than everybody else and they don't care how many Xboxes or PlayStations are sold. And in fairness to them if you want to play Nintendo games you're buying a Nintendo console.

"As long as they have good content and a lot of it they're going to keep selling Switches. And one thing they've got is good content and a lot of it. If you start to see a decline in sales of software you could worry, but you're not. Their games are killing it. They're just selling so many units of everything and it's because their games are really, really good."


A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.


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44 Comments
Chicho (on 23 October 2021)

OH, i guess it is coming in 2023.

  • +26
Pinkie_pie Chicho (on 23 October 2021)

Yeah it was most likely 2023 anyways

  • 0
victor83fernandes Pinkie_pie (on 23 October 2021)

2023? Not a chance, we are quickly approaching 2022 already and the switch is still selling really well.

  • +1
eddy7eddy victor83fernandes (on 24 October 2021)

Patcher has been wrong so many times in the past making very bold and slightly rude statements, that even if he makes a logical prediction he is not taken very seriously.

  • +4
victor83fernandes eddy7eddy (on 25 October 2021)

Who cares about patcher.

  • 0
eddy7eddy victor83fernandes (on 02 November 2021)

Who is Patcher?

  • 0
Dulfite victor83fernandes (on 25 October 2021)

Not a chance? On average they release next gen after 6 years. That will be 2023.

And regarding sales, the DS (which is going to be the only Nintendo device that probably sells more than Switch), still sold 8,759,675 units during the 3ds launch year, then another 3 mil the next year before tanking hard in 2013. Nintendo could very well be thinking to release the successor in 2023 at a premium price and continue selling Switches for the next couple years at a cheaper price before they can get the new hardware down in price. More profits, more happy gamers.

  • +1
victor83fernandes Dulfite (on 25 October 2021)

This is completely different. First of all it’s the most successful Nintendo home console ever. Secondly it was released mid generation to the competition. This was supposed to have launched a couple years later of the wiiu was not such a failure.

  • 0
Dulfite victor83fernandes (on 25 October 2021)

Doesn't matter what type of device it is. What matters is they've had a device more successful than this before and didn't deviate from the 6 year cycle, so why would they for a less successful device? You may be right, but you have no historical evidence to back it up. I may be wrong, but I have every historical evidence to back it up. But you seem to be in the majority. Time will tell.

It takes years to plan out games for a new system. For Nintendo to wait to release their next device until 2024/2025 means they will have games just sitting around mostly complete waiting for the next gen device to come out. They had no idea how big of a hit Switch would be until basically 2020, 3 years into it's life (half way). The idea that they weren't actively working on next console games with only 3 years to go until launch seems ludicrous. Against, they plan their gens and games out years ahead of time.

  • +1
SvenTheTurkey Chicho (on 24 October 2021)

Oh shit. I can't call him an idiot for once. He's actually right this time.

  • +1
Dulfite (on 23 October 2021)

Finally! I've been saying for a long time now it's coming 2023 and this is the proof many of you needed!

  • +14
Kakadu18 Dulfite (on 23 October 2021)

From a logistical standpoint that would be to early. It would take years for many franchises to show up on the system that need to be there eary, especially 3D Zelda.

  • +2
Dulfite Kakadu18 (on 23 October 2021)

Huh? Nintendo plans out their generations and has plans for when studios will start making games for the next platform. I guarantee you there are already studios working on Switch 2 games, especially if they came out with a game in the last year. It's not like they just wait around until sales of their current gen tank to start development on games for the next system, cause then they'd have no software for a year or two for that next system, which would make it dead on arrival.

  • +3
SvenTheTurkey Dulfite (on 24 October 2021)

He's right for once. That's all there is to it. Profits are high. Sales are high. It's not happening before 2024.

  • +3
Imthelegend (on 23 October 2021)

Wow. Not often agree with him but I think he's right. Never thought I'd say that about Pachter.

  • +14
Kakadu18 (on 23 October 2021)

I think that might be the first time I agree with him. But I don't think the OLED costs Nintendo only $150.

  • +13
SecondWar Kakadu18 (on 24 October 2021)

I assumed that was referring to the base Switch (or maybe the lite) and not the OLED model.

  • +1
Kakadu18 SecondWar (on 24 October 2021)

If that's the case then he's probably right, but to me it seemed to be referring to the OLED model.

  • +2
Torpoleon (on 23 October 2021)

Shockingly enough, I agree with Pachter.

Unfortunately, Pachter saying this has me worried because he's been wrong many times in the past!

  • +10
Dulfite Torpoleon (on 23 October 2021)

Worried you may get to enjoy a true successor in 2023 instead of having to wait a year or two while some play some lame pro model they hope for?

  • +1
Torpoleon Dulfite (on 23 October 2021)

Yes because I feel like releasing a successor in 2023 is too soon given that the Switch is still hot and a lot of their big studios are releasing games for Switch in 2022. Sure they could still have Mario Kart in 2023 on Switch 2, but then what else could they have throughout 2024? All the big games released on Switch in 2017 won't get games released on Switch 2 in 2023 largely because a lot of them are getting games on Switch by the end of next year roughly.

It's just too soon. And I know Nintendo has done similar things where they release a revision and then a new system shortly thereafter. They released 3DS pretty soon after DSi XL, but last time I checked the 3DS had a terrible launch and is their lowest selling portable. The PSP outsold it. The 3DS was released too soon. I don't see why Nintendo should rush out Switch 2 in 2023. I feel they would be better off releasing a Pro in 2022 and Switch 2 in 2024.

  • +7
Dulfite Torpoleon (on 23 October 2021)

Unless they announce games between now and late 2022, by 2023, it will have been:
-6 years since the last major 3d Mario game
-3 years since the last Paper Mario
-3 years since the last Animal Crossing
-4 years since the last new entry in main Pokemon series.
-3/4 years since last Luigi's Mansion
-4 years since the last main Fire Emblem
-4 years since last Yoshi game
-4 years since the last Smash
-5 years since the last Xenoblade
-5-6 years since the last 2-d Mario game. If you don't count Maker 2 it's been even longer.
-3/4 years since last 2-d Zelda
-7 years since last starfox
-9 years since last Mario kart
-9 years since last Donkey Kong
-10 years since last Pikmin
-11 years since last Kid Icarus

Sure, some of these will get released between now and 2023 on Switch 1 as swansong games, but there is way too many on this list that it's been a long time since they released a game for it to be too soon for a sequel. I predict they are lining up most of th sequels on the list above to come out 2023-2025 on Switch 2 as next gen titles.

  • 0
Helloplite Dulfite (on 23 October 2021)

Not everyone needs to pay 500 USD for a new handheld that is powerful but has 2 hours of battery life. Certainly not 1000 USD to get a fancy high-res display akin to a mobile phone. Switch has momentum and the right price for specs ratio.

  • +7
DonFerrari Helloplite (on 23 October 2021)

Can't agree with saying the price of Switch is right for the specs.

  • +1
HoangNhatAnh DonFerrari (on 24 October 2021)

Older doesn't mean cheaper. If they are the only devices those chips are used on, since the chips are so old, then the may be a lot more than we think.
The first flow of chip was from 2015, the second flow is from 2019.
In 2012, even the more powerful SoC couldn't match with PS360 level of performance

  • 0
Machina (on 23 October 2021)

2024-2025 seems reasonable.

  • +8
padib (on 23 October 2021)

Seems like his software has been patched.

Got it right this time.

  • +6
xMetroid (on 23 October 2021)

Funny puns asside, he's kinda have a good reasoning for once. They make so much profit off the Switch rn it would be silly to just kill that out since they don't even have a competitor rn. Steamdeck won't do much. Nintendo is building an empire ala Disney and Apple. Their brand with Switch is strong enough rn to just keep it rolling. The later the successor comes, the better and more powerful it will be.

  • +4
SuperJortendo (on 23 October 2021)

Never knew what he looked like before, figured he was just some algorithm from the early 2000's covered in shit.

But I think he's right.

  • +4
SanAndreasX (on 23 October 2021)

So Pachter has his own channel now?

  • +4
ShadowLink93 SanAndreasX (on 23 October 2021)

He has been on youtube for about 10 years.

  • 0
aiwass ShadowLink93 (on 23 October 2021)

Even before that he was making videos on GameTrailers going back to the late 00's in pretty much the same format.

  • 0
PAOerfulone (on 23 October 2021)

Huh... For once, I actually agree with Pachter.

  • +3
GoOnKid (on 23 October 2021)

These are very very positive words coming from one of the biggest Nintendo doubters ever. I am very impressed.

  • +2
CaptainExplosion (on 23 October 2021)

If Pachter said this, then it's coming earlier or later.

  • +2
JRPGfan (on 23 October 2021)

Pachter thinks they cost less than 150$ to make, and are sold at 300$. Nintendo be swimming in money.

  • +2
Random_Matt JRPGfan (on 23 October 2021)

The chips are from 2012/2013, then again, Nvidia could possibly be ripping Nintendo off. Nintendo will rip customers off.

  • +3
Dulfite Random_Matt (on 23 October 2021)

Older doesn't mean cheaper. If they are the only devices those chips are used on, since the chips are so old, then the may be a lot more than we think.

  • +2
SKMBlake Random_Matt (on 23 October 2021)

Nope, the first flow of chip was from 2015, the second flow is from 2019.

In 2012, even the more powerful SoC couldn't match with PS360 level of performance

  • +5
DonFerrari (on 23 October 2021)

So 2022 it will launch, that will make that thread wrong.

  • +1
Giggity_goo (on 24 October 2021)

it needs to be backwards compatible

  • 0
BuckStud (on 24 October 2021)

While I have no idea when it will be released, this guy is wrong almost all the time especially when it comes to Nintendo. How the heck he makes a living at what he does is completely beyond me.

  • 0
freebs2 (on 24 October 2021)

my guess, Zelda gets delayed to march 2023, for simuoltanuos release with switch 2.
Possibly even the Mario movie will be released alongsinde a new mario game and the switch 2

  • 0
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