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Pachter: PS4 to Sell 130M Units, Xbox One 110M, and Wii U 20M

Pachter: PS4 to Sell 130M Units, Xbox One 110M, and Wii U 20M - News

by William D'Angelo , posted on 21 September 2015 / 12,059 Views

The console market has reached its peak in terms of overall install base, according to Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter.

He estimates that the 8th generation is going to see similar sales to the 7th generation, however the spread of sales will be very different:

  • The Wii U is predicted to sell 20 million units lifetime, compared to the Wii's 100 million. 
  • The PlayStation 4 will sell between 120 million and 130 million units.
  • The Xbox One will sell between 100 million and 110 million units.

"The console installed base is as big as it's ever going to get," said Pachter. "[This] generation is not going to be bigger than the last generation. We're going to be about the same."

"This is the last real console cycle," he added. "I don't mean that Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo will go bankrupt and shut down - they will not. Each of them will make another console, some people will buy them, and the next console cycle will be to this console cycle what the 3DS is to the DS. The 3DS is selling about 15 million units a year, the DS had five consecutive years where it sold more than 26 million. So about half as big."

"So when I say that this console cycle is the last console cycle, the reason is that console games shouldn't require a console. And I'm not talking about the cloud."

http://www.vgchartz.com/articles_media/images/apple-tv-1.jpg

Pachter clarified that to play a console game what you need is a CPU, GPU, a controller, storage, and a display. That could mean plugging a smartphone into the TV or using a device similar to AppleTV.

"What happens when you lower the entry so nobody has to buy a console?" he asked. "If Activision sells 20 million copies of Call of Duty to people with a console, how many people would buy it who don't have a console? I'm guessing 20 million more. To make it easier for the Europeans in the room, how many more people would play FIFA if a console wasn't required? Another 20 million."

"How many people would play Grand Theft Auto if you didn't need a console? 100 million. It's crazy numbers. This just makes so much sense. It is going to happen."

http://www.vgchartz.com/articles_media/images/apple-tv-2.jpg

"I think the traditional gamer market - which has high standards - does broaden. But the only way you actually see a step function change in that is to pull the console out of the equation, and make it open to people who can't afford or won't buy a console."

"I think this shift to full-game digital downloads, where everybody has the opportunity to play a game without having to invest $399 is a huge opportunity. It's an opportunity for everyone in the value chain, except the retailer and maybe the console manufacturer."

Thanks GamesIndustry.

________________________________________________________________________________________

A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials.You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.


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70 Comments
RubberWhistleHistle (on 21 September 2015)

xbox one is selling 110 million units? is this guy fucking kidding? how many years does he think that system is going to be on the market?

  • +21
Seventizz RubberWhistleHistle (on 22 September 2015)

Are your feelings hurt over an educated guess from an analyst in the industry?

  • -2
ZhugeEX (on 21 September 2015)

Hmmm, you've taken this out of context. He was giving a best case scenario and saying that even if the consoles sell this much it'll still be lower than PS3/360/Wii last gen.

Yes Pachter can be wrong a lot of the time but lets not take stuff out of context here.

  • +14
illdill1987 (on 21 September 2015)

This guy is really bad at his job.

  • +8
Ganoncrotch illdill1987 (on 22 September 2015)

while sites write articles quoting the guy because of how bad he is at his jobs to his employers the guy has a lot of media attention and gets more work.... it's the kardasian effect, famous for being shit.

  • +2
Serious_frusting (on 21 September 2015)

So the xbone ps4 gap is going to be 20 million tops? Yeah right

  • +7
atma998 (on 21 September 2015)

What was his 7th gen prediction again? The guy predicted the end of Nintendo as a console maker back in 2006...

  • +5
SirFortesque atma998 (on 22 September 2015)

Without the Wii success, I would've predicted it too actually lol

  • +1
Azhraell (on 21 September 2015)

His prediction about the X1 selling 100M was already stupid, but not only that, he estimates it will be BETWEEN 100 and 110... lol Even the PS4 will have a hard time reaching 120, I think 100M at least is very likely though

  • +4
Roronaa_chan (on 21 September 2015)

Go home, you're drunk.

  • +4
jardesonbarbosa (on 21 September 2015)

I can see PS4 selling more than 100 million, but Xbox One? No Way. Wii U also can't get into 20 million, 15 seems more realistic.

  • +3
kljesta64 (on 21 September 2015)

no console will break the 100M

  • +2
Roronaa_chan kljesta64 (on 21 September 2015)

PS4 will

  • +8
xl-klaudkil kljesta64 (on 21 September 2015)

Ps4 damn sure will!

  • +2
Toxy kljesta64 (on 21 September 2015)

I agree that the PS4 will likely reach the target Patcher has given. The Xbox One will likely fall short though.

  • 0
Azhraell kljesta64 (on 21 September 2015)

Keep saying it loud, maybe it comes true

  • +5
DialgaMarine kljesta64 (on 21 September 2015)

Not to repeat everyone else, but PS4 definitely will. PS4 touching PS2 is highly unlikely, depending on if the console's support continues to grow and how long this ten lasts, but 100M is no problem. PS4 will surely be the second best selling home console of all time. It's already passed the 25 million threshold, not even two years, and with serious heavy hitters coming in just the next year alone.

  • +1
Seventizz (on 22 September 2015)

Wow, an analysis does his job and makes an educated guess - and somehow all the Sony fanboys this site is littered with get upset - like their precious console failed. You still come out on top - morons.

  • +1
COKTOE (on 22 September 2015)

Those pictures make my skin crawl. There's a smugness to them. A fraud. A total fraud.

  • +1
DialgaMarine (on 21 September 2015)

PS4 130 million? Maybe. Xbone 110 million? Not a snowball's chance in hell.

  • +1
DemoniOtaku (on 21 September 2015)

At most ONE will sell 20 M in the European market at the rythm sells are going there... the Japanese Market will end almost NULL there on sells.. So to reach the predicted 100 M, ONE will need to sell +80 M on the US market, almost double of what X360 had until now on that Market... even being overly positive over sells there, ONE will sell 50-55 M on US and reach 20-25 M on European Market... So 70-80 M would be a more realistic, but still hard, goal to reach at current pace.

PS4 can reach the 100 M, but for 120-130 M will need a unexpected boost of sells.. That's why SONY price cuted it on Japan and having all posible games of japanese taste there...

WiiU, NOPES! it will not reach 20 M 15-16 at most...

  • +1
LivingMetal (on 22 September 2015)

Oh, no! Craw back under your rock, and stay there!

  • 0
Seventizz (on 22 September 2015)

Makes sense. Sony being light on software exclusives is bound to catch up with them. What do they have this holiday? Nothing? And next year - Uncharted? Is GT 6 even dated?

Great job MS!

  • 0
NinjaFox (on 22 September 2015)

"Pachter clarified that to play a console game what you need is a CPU, GPU, a controller, storage, and a display. That could mean plugging a smartphone into the TV or using a device similar to AppleTV." Okay, show of hands, who has a phone with about 100GB of storage space to download Metal Gear Solid V, a GTA game, and Arkham Knight so they can plug it into their phone? Going to be a while before phones hit that point (it'll happen, but going to be a while).

  • 0
chidori-chan2 (on 22 September 2015)

That's no way WiiU would ever have reached the GC in a 100 years, never mind.. hhaaha

  • 0
SirFortesque (on 22 September 2015)

PS4 selling 130 millions units ? Maybe.... but I actually think that Wii U will sell 15 millions, not 20.

  • 0
beeje13 (on 22 September 2015)

Has he ever made a correct prediction? And I disagree with the notion that there are 20 million CoD players waiting for it to come Android and iOS. Plus what game on there sells for $60? They would have to kill their margin to see the growth, so what is the point?

  • 0
Miyamotoo (on 22 September 2015)

PS4 curently is almost double than XboxOne and he saying 110m for XboxOne and 130m for PS4!?

  • 0
SuperNova (on 22 September 2015)

People are getting so hung up on Patchers hilarious console estimates that they neglect to see the rest of the article. He predicts that with the end of consoles GTA/Fifa/COD will double their sales, because the barrier of entry to play them (buying a console) would not be there. He's totally neglecting that all of these games have pc ports, so the console barrier of entry line is bull, only that the c ports havent doubled the sales of any of these franchises. He dreams of a future where you plug your smartphone to the TV and play that way but short of going ftp being on smartphones isn't going to do anything for these franchises either. it's been proven time and time again that the smartphone crowd doesn't pay for 60$ games, not even the majority of the pc crowd does, the console crowd are the ones the industry is making the most money off. Those doubled sales for blockbuster franchises aren't happening.

  • 0
Manlytears (on 22 September 2015)

PS4 > a bit optimistic, but yeah i can see PS4 at 110-120M

Xbox one > NO WAY IN HELL!! X1 will be luck if it reach 80-90M.

Wii U > under 20M for sure.

  • 0
UltimateGamer1982 (on 21 September 2015)

Xbox one will 've lucky to reach 45-50 million worldwide. And most of that will 've from North America.

PS4 should have no trouble reaching 100 million.


Wii U should be 20 million or under. So roughly gen 6 numbers.

Gen 7 was bloated because of the Wii. It was a fad nothing more.

This gen is just returning to gen5/6 numbers.

  • 0
Jumpin (on 21 September 2015)

He's not a very good analyst.

  • 0
Ganoncrotch Jumpin (on 22 September 2015)

you are a good analyst!

  • +1
Mr.Playstation (on 21 September 2015)

Yuck!

  • 0
Landale_Star (on 21 September 2015)

So we know whats not going to happen now, this gen is going to flop. Get ready for the next console generation though because its going to eclipse all previous ones. Plus Apple TV is going to fail as a games platform. I generally just go with the opposite of this guy, its the correct way almost all of the time

  • 0
kdognumba1 (on 21 September 2015)

Wii U selling 20 million? At this point, maybe it'll hit 15 million but the big guns have already came and gone. The only way Wii U can get 20 million sales is if Nintendo drops the price by at least a third, starts doing limited edition bundles with different looking systems (not just a game), comes out with a new model that improves on things such as the gamepad and the storage space, and does a lot to improve the system such as breaking the region lock, revamping or drastically improve on the OS, and drastically improving on their Network. That said, they'll need all 3 to be able to hit 20 million and I just don't see them investing that heavily into Wii U anymore.

As for the other predictions, Xbox One selling 100 to 110 million is laughably wrong. Xbox One is looking at 40 million to 50 million lifetime at best. The system can't seem to even sell 10 million a year and has a much smaller market outside of the US. For now, the market in the US is stable but it's still being outsold by the PS4 on a weekly basis most weeks.

PS4, while it's doing well, is selling WELL BELOW Wii numbers and is nowhere near the PS2 or DS. While I'm more then confident that the system won't fizzle out the way Wii did by the 5th year, it'll likely take 6 years to do what the Wii did in 4. This means, unless this generation lasts 8+ years like the previous gen (which isn't likely due to all the system being under-powered on release), it won't be hitting Wii numbers. I'm expecting it to do better then PS3 did but not by much. 85 million to 90 million is the lifetime sales I would expect.

  • 0
bouzane kdognumba1 (on 21 September 2015)

The PS4 is nowhere near the PS2? That statement is verifiably incorrect and the PS4 is still ahead of the PS2 at this point. The Wii sold 73 million units in four years and the PS3 sold 68 million in six years. Now consider the fact that the PS4 is already 10.5 million ahead of the PS3. The PS3's sales were fairly pedestrian over its third to sixth years and it tracked well behind the PS2 (unlike the PS4). It's obvious that the PS4 won't take six years to match the first four from the Wii.

  • 0
bouzane kdognumba1 (on 22 September 2015)

...and it's obvious that it will surpass 90 million lifetime sales. I can not imagine how poorly you think the PS4 is going to do in its twilight or how short of a lifespan it will have.

  • 0
H3ADShOt3 (on 21 September 2015)

1 out of 3 consoles are actually real predictions! You're so good at your job!

  • 0
QUAKECore89 (on 21 September 2015)

This guy is.... Never mind... -.-

  • 0
pikashoe (on 21 September 2015)

The wiiu is the only one that has even the slightest chance of reaching his targets and even that is very unlikely

  • 0
Azhraell pikashoe (on 21 September 2015)

Out of those, ps4 has the higuer chance to happen. Just saying

  • +2
Ljink96 (on 21 September 2015)

Xbone and Wii U are TOO optimistic. PS4 I actually see it over 100M. Xbone: 60M, Wii U: 15M.

  • 0
Nintyfan90 Ljink96 (on 21 September 2015)

Are you related to Pachter?

  • -4
Seventizz (on 22 September 2015)

Wow, an analysis does his job and makes an educated guess - and somehow all the Sony fanboys this site is littered with get upset - like their precious console failed. You still come out on top - morons.

  • -1
Seventizz (on 22 September 2015)

Wow, an analysis does his job and makes an educated guess - and somehow all the Sony fanboys this site is littered with get upset - like their precious console failed. You still come out on top - morons.

  • -1
fireburn95 (on 22 September 2015)

So America basically has to buy 90 million for him to be right. With Europe doing well for sony, America will be like 60 million for ps4 haha

  • -1
Miyamotoo (on 22 September 2015)

Xbox One 110m!?
In best case it will have sales around 10m per year in peak years.

Also Wii U will hit 20m very hard.

  • -1
bluemd (on 22 September 2015)

Come on patcher, even you don't believe in those numbers!

  • -1
Jigsawx1 (on 22 September 2015)

i think hes right

  • -1
Rob5VGC (on 21 September 2015)

PS4? I can see it over 100 million

Wii U? I can see that.

Xbox One?

THIS HAND OF MIND IS BURNING RED! ITS LOUD ROAR TELLS ME TO SLAP THE SHIT OUT OF YOU!

  • -1
H3ADShOt3 Rob5VGC (on 21 September 2015)

Haha Wii U will never get there

  • 0
Madword (on 22 September 2015)

XBO will be lucky to get to 50-60m by the end of the gen. PS4 should do at least 80m... his 100m for XBO is so crazy though.

  • -2
peterdavid12345 (on 22 September 2015)

Patcher is an idiot, im a huge Sony fan but there are no way the PS4 will sell pass the 80 Millions mark, just no way! console gaming is dying. I expect it to be gone at near the end of 2017 or early 2018. And then PC, Smartphone and Cloud gaming like PS Now will take over as the next-generation of gaming.

  • -2
Poliwrathlord (on 21 September 2015)

All these predictions are completely wrong. PS4 will barely scratch over 100 M. Xbone will be lucky to reach 50 M. and it would be a miracle if Wii U touched 14 M.

  • -5
H3ADShOt3 Poliwrathlord (on 21 September 2015)

Oh ya because the Xbox one is doing way worse then what the 360 did...

  • 0
tak13 Poliwrathlord (on 21 September 2015)

Just Fast selling(boosted by early/consecutive big price drops) in the USA dear h3ad....Don't let that temporal situation to fool you,things will change unless a miracle happens,in Europe/row but ps4 apparent overwhelming dominance won't allow this.
Look at the European sales(excluding uk where is currently doing exceptionally)in the other European terittories is selling below the wii u)!Xbox one need to sell more than 70m in the USA(+26m from xbox 360 with ps4 being a robust competitor which currently puts in doubt xbox supremacy in it's mother land,something that didn't happen with ps3)to reach what Patcher predicts,lol I don't know what he was thinking when said that...It will probably sell half of what patcher estimates,and it would be very good/sufficient...

  • 0
tak13 Poliwrathlord (on 21 September 2015)

Just Fast selling(boosted by early/consecutive big price drops) in the USA dear h3ad....Don't let that temporal situation to fool you,things will change unless a miracle happens,in Europe/row but ps4 apparent overwhelming dominance won't allow this.
Look at the European sales(excluding uk where is currently doing exceptionally)in the other European terittories is selling below the wii u)!Xbox one need to sell more than 70m in the USA(+26m from xbox 360 with ps4 being a robust competitor which currently puts in doubt xbox supremacy in it's mother land,something that didn't happen with ps3)to reach what Patcher predicts,lol I don't know what he was thinking when said that...It will probably sell half of what patcher estimates,and it would be very good/sufficient...

  • -1
DemoniOtaku Poliwrathlord (on 21 September 2015)

I think that You are right.. XONE could end sellin between 50-60 M.. beause in the European market right now sell worse than Vita... And in the Japanese market is even worse... I an't see it selling +80 M on US market only to reach 100 M.

  • +1
kumagawa (on 21 September 2015)

All 3 consoles combined will be lucky to get 100 million sales.

  • -8
DialgaMarine kumagawa (on 21 September 2015)

So tell me, what exactly is going to stop PS4?

  • 0
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Ganoncrotch VersusEvil (on 21 September 2015)

this, so much this.

  • +6
Seventizz VersusEvil (on 22 September 2015)

Yea, how dare an analysts in the industry make an educated guess! How dare he do his job!

  • 0
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