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NPD Totals USA Video Game Revenue for January 2011 - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 17 February 2011 / 7,309 Views

January NPD data for the USA video game market, covering the four weeks ending January 29, has arrived.

As expected, hardware, software and accessory figures fell off dramatically from December to January. While December 2010 revenue easily topped $5.0b revenue in a down year for the industry, January revenue was less than quarter of that. Adjusting for the extra week in December compared to January, revenue spent per week fell from over $1.00b per week to less than $275m per week. The results were pretty typical of the December to January fall off though.

Nonetheless, sales for January 2011 were not dramatically different from January 2010. During January 2011, dollars spent on video game software fell to $576m from $606.8m in January 2010. Hardware revenue dropped to $324m in January 2011 from $353.7m in the previous January. Accessories rose to $235.1m from $222.8m in January on Kinect and Move. Overall industry revenue dropped 4% from January 2010 excluding PC software.

January Revenue Totals

The modest increase in accessory sales is what doomed the month to a down total. In previous months, Move and Kinect pushed accessories to much larger increases than +$12.3m / 5.5%, offsetting hardware and/or software declines. Without a breakdown of accessories though, it is of course possible that Move and Kinect continued to boost the category while all other accessories fell off dramatically. The software decline is a bit surprising given the number of leggy games released during late 2010 for the three current home consoles. Hardware declines are not surprising though, as DS, PSP and PS2 are seeing continual steady declines. Since Wii and PS3 have been flat or down since lapping their price cuts in 2009, the X360 alone has not been able to hold up hardware revenue.

Jan 2011 HW

Wii and PS3 figures for January have surfaced in Japanese articles covering the industry. Wii fell 31% to 320,000 from the previous January, and looks like it was the system to drop the most year over year. PS3 was down a bit from last January, but buoyed by its new January releases. With three totals in and hardware known to have reached $324m, I have estimated DS at 373,000 units based on the following math:

HW = $324m - (381,000 * $250) - (320,000 * $190) - (267,000 * $325) = HW dollars spent for DS, PS2, and PSP

HW = $324m - $95.25m (X360) -$148.6m (Wii & PS3) = $80.15m

If you figure PS2 and PSP are $20m of the remaining hardware revenue total (roughly 40,000 * $100 = $4m for PS2, 80,000 * $180 for PSP based on VGC) you get roughly $60m in revenue for DS hardware. Depending on the impact of the DS hardware discounts for the month, that is roughly 350,000 - 390,000 DS systems for January.

Exact DS, PSP or PS2 figures will be edited in if / when they arrive.

Both Wii and X360 remain about 50% ahead of PS3 over the past 12-months. The current X360 peak of about 6.8m systems sold over 12-months is 2m units higher than the highest 12-month PS3 figure in the USA by 1.9m units, or almost 40%. Compared to previous systems, the current 12-month X360 figure is 4m units below the 12-month Wii peak, and 2m units below the 12-month PS2 peak. Still, it is at the level of PS1 and SNES at a later point, which is impressive. Current trends suggest lifetime penetration for X360 of over 40m in the USA given how late this peak has come. Wii and PS3 showed tremendous lifts at lower prices in late 2009, so their current 12-month figures can improve substantially with price cuts. Microsoft would see a big lift to its domestic video game business on a price cut too, but since X360 is already tracking at record levels for Microsoft the impact of a price cut will be harder to parse out.

HW Trends in 12 Month Periods from Launch

Over the long term, we can see X360 continuing to move to a late peak of about 7m units. February 2010 to January 2011 figures are 6.81m for X360, a record over a 12-month period for Microsoft. Given Wii, NES and PS2 had much earlier - albeit higher peaks - if Microsoft can push X360 to 6-7m units in 2011, that may end up being the all time high for a console in the USA during year seven / full year six. Wii should perform at a similar rate to X360 in the USA in 2011, particularly with a price cut and Zelda likely by year end. However, 6-7m in 2011 for Wii is in year six / full year five. When Wii is as old as X360 is, during 2012, its figures should be lower than X360 figures were in 2011.

NPD reported the following games as the top games, on a multi-platform basis, for January 2011.

01. Call of Duty: Black Ops* (360, PS3, WII, NDS, PC) Activision Blizzard - 750,000
02. Just Dance 2 (WII) Ubisoft > 500,000
03. Dead Space 2 (360, PS3, PC) Electronic Arts - 453,000 (441,000 without PC)
04. Little Big Planet 2 (PS3) Sony - 353,000
05. Zumba Fitness: Join the Party (WII, 360, PS3) Majesco  Over 300,000
06. NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, PSP, WII, PS2, PC) Take 2 Interactive - 261,000
07. Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (360, PS3) Ubisoft - logically 245k ish
08. Dance Central (360) MTV Games - logically 229k ish
09. Michael Jackson The Experience (WII, DS, PSP) Ubisoft - logically 212k ish
10. DC Universe Online: The Next Legend Is You (PS3, PC) Sony - 195,000

xx. Donkey Kong Country Returns about About 167,000

xx. Red Dead Redemption 94,000

xx. Udraw 26,000

During January 2010, the highest software total was 653,000 for a single platform game. Thus top software doesn't look down too much, as Just Dance topped 500,000 just on Wii.

Michael Pachter has also stated that less than 20% of PS3 sales for January 2011 in the USA were Move bundles. Kinect bundles were nearly 60% of all X360s sales for the month. The overall ratio was about five to one in favor of Kinect for the month according to Pachter. With PS3 selling 267,000 units, less than 20% of hardware indicates something like 45,000 Moves sold with PS3 hardware, compared to 225,000 Kinects sold with X360 hardware.

Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com


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18 Comments
rf40928 (on 24 February 2011)

The PS3's numbers aren't any harder to trac then the PS2's or PS1's, but Sony fans didn't question those numbers because those systems just happened to sell better. PS2 IMHO epinion was a perfect storm, released ahead of Gamecube by about 6 months, ahead of Xbox 1 by about a year and included what was already a defacto standard ( DVD ) in video, and didnt cost much more then a good DVD player when it was released.

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disolitude (on 18 February 2011)

@postofficebuddy

Sorry...Fair enough. The NDP total may not be accurate though, just an estimation by the Source. Could be more sales wise or less...further proving your PS3 theory or the opposite.
Why NDP stopped giving totals for all systems is beyond me...maybe the industry is really in that bad shape that they don't want to share the data.

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postofficebuddy (on 18 February 2011)

@disolitude I think you misinterpreted something. Obviously NPD is USA only. I just said that VGC's Americas numbers include Canada and LA as well. And I was only commenting in regards to PS3 sales, not 360. I'm sure the 360 sales are accurate or pretty close. And my comment still stands, it seems extremely strange that sales would go from 110k in Non-USA Americas last year to only 50k now when every other major sales trend suggests otherwise.

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disolitude (on 18 February 2011)

@postofficebuddy
No it isn't. This report is NDP USA only. Read the freekin title...

Its not far fetched to assume that Canada, and central Americas sold another 100,000 Xbox 360s on top of this. VGchartz 360 numbers are fine. As far as PS3, since they are not giving us official numbers, its hard to guess anything.

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postofficebuddy (on 18 February 2011)

@Welshbloke It's Canada and Latin America as well. And there's something unusual about our PS3 numbers. NPD basically has PS3 flat YOY. But VGC has PS3 down almost 70k YOY in Americas overall. Now obviously Canada and LA don't perfectly mirror overall trends with the USA but that decline basically represents a total collapse of PS3 sales in non-USA Americas. That seems extremely strange when you consider that basically every other market in the world has been showing PS3 sales only having very marginal YOY declines or being flat.

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jugon21 (on 18 February 2011)

Wii and PS3 need a price cut.

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pokeclaudel (on 18 February 2011)

Wait isn't this just for the USA while the Americas category on VGC includes Canada, central and South America too? Why do people keep saying VGC is so wrong about the x360 when NPD only shows one of the FOUR countries sales in the Americas?

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FF_Fanatic (on 18 February 2011)

lol where is bhr when u need him, x360 has been overtracked big time again....

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hiroko (on 18 February 2011)

huh...soo the x360 isnt outselling ps3 with that many units like VGC shows it.

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welshbloke (on 18 February 2011)

Before everyone gets too carried away the NPD numbers only cover the US whilst VGC covers US and Canada not sure what the position is when you take that into account tbh, also NPD still have a margin of error of around 10% so again you should understand that as well.

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ivanpgcs (on 18 February 2011)

are there LBP 2 bundles? are the LBP 2 bundles included in NPD sales?

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kingofwale (on 18 February 2011)

when is the adjustment coming?

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TheSource (on 17 February 2011)

Red figures are my estimates guys based on:

1) X360 / Wii / PS3 HW Numbers and Revenue
2) Total HW Revenue.

I'm more sure about the DS number than the PSP / PS2 numbers, so the DS number is presented with m/m and y/y data.

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thegame1000 (on 17 February 2011)

Nevermind...rest of the numbers came in. Wii and 360 were overtracked by a lot it looks like.

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axumblade (on 17 February 2011)

Oh wow....DC Universe made the top 10. I'm actually a bit surprised. I hope it continues to sell well. :)

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thegame1000 (on 17 February 2011)

So...does the NPD no longer release hardware sales?

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heruamon (on 17 February 2011)

Nice results...for the 360, that is.

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dsage01 (on 17 February 2011)

nice for dc universe online but i expected more from lbp 2
third month in a row cod is first! wow

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