NPD Totals USA Video Game Revenue for January 2011 - NewsVGChartz Staff , posted on 17 February 2011 / 7,324 Views
January NPD data for the USA video game market, covering the four weeks ending January 29, has arrived.
As expected, hardware, software and accessory figures fell off dramatically from December to January. While December 2010 revenue easily topped $5.0b revenue in a down year for the industry, January revenue was less than quarter of that. Adjusting for the extra week in December compared to January, revenue spent per week fell from over $1.00b per week to less than $275m per week. The results were pretty typical of the December to January fall off though.
Nonetheless, sales for January 2011 were not dramatically different from January 2010. During January 2011, dollars spent on video game software fell to $576m from $606.8m in January 2010. Hardware revenue dropped to $324m in January 2011 from $353.7m in the previous January. Accessories rose to $235.1m from $222.8m in January on Kinect and Move. Overall industry revenue dropped 4% from January 2010 excluding PC software.
The modest increase in accessory sales is what doomed the month to a down total. In previous months, Move and Kinect pushed accessories to much larger increases than +$12.3m / 5.5%, offsetting hardware and/or software declines. Without a breakdown of accessories though, it is of course possible that Move and Kinect continued to boost the category while all other accessories fell off dramatically. The software decline is a bit surprising given the number of leggy games released during late 2010 for the three current home consoles. Hardware declines are not surprising though, as DS, PSP and PS2 are seeing continual steady declines. Since Wii and PS3 have been flat or down since lapping their price cuts in 2009, the X360 alone has not been able to hold up hardware revenue.
Wii and PS3 figures for January have surfaced in Japanese articles covering the industry. Wii fell 31% to 320,000 from the previous January, and looks like it was the system to drop the most year over year. PS3 was down a bit from last January, but buoyed by its new January releases. With three totals in and hardware known to have reached $324m, I have estimated DS at 373,000 units based on the following math:
HW = $324m - (381,000 * $250) - (320,000 * $190) - (267,000 * $325) = HW dollars spent for DS, PS2, and PSP
HW = $324m - $95.25m (X360) -$148.6m (Wii & PS3) = $80.15m
If you figure PS2 and PSP are $20m of the remaining hardware revenue total (roughly 40,000 * $100 = $4m for PS2, 80,000 * $180 for PSP based on VGC) you get roughly $60m in revenue for DS hardware. Depending on the impact of the DS hardware discounts for the month, that is roughly 350,000 - 390,000 DS systems for January.
Exact DS, PSP or PS2 figures will be edited in if / when they arrive.
Both Wii and X360 remain about 50% ahead of PS3 over the past 12-months. The current X360 peak of about 6.8m systems sold over 12-months is 2m units higher than the highest 12-month PS3 figure in the USA by 1.9m units, or almost 40%. Compared to previous systems, the current 12-month X360 figure is 4m units below the 12-month Wii peak, and 2m units below the 12-month PS2 peak. Still, it is at the level of PS1 and SNES at a later point, which is impressive. Current trends suggest lifetime penetration for X360 of over 40m in the USA given how late this peak has come. Wii and PS3 showed tremendous lifts at lower prices in late 2009, so their current 12-month figures can improve substantially with price cuts. Microsoft would see a big lift to its domestic video game business on a price cut too, but since X360 is already tracking at record levels for Microsoft the impact of a price cut will be harder to parse out.
Over the long term, we can see X360 continuing to move to a late peak of about 7m units. February 2010 to January 2011 figures are 6.81m for X360, a record over a 12-month period for Microsoft. Given Wii, NES and PS2 had much earlier - albeit higher peaks - if Microsoft can push X360 to 6-7m units in 2011, that may end up being the all time high for a console in the USA during year seven / full year six. Wii should perform at a similar rate to X360 in the USA in 2011, particularly with a price cut and Zelda likely by year end. However, 6-7m in 2011 for Wii is in year six / full year five. When Wii is as old as X360 is, during 2012, its figures should be lower than X360 figures were in 2011.
NPD reported the following games as the top games, on a multi-platform basis, for January 2011.
01. Call of Duty: Black Ops* (360, PS3, WII, NDS, PC) Activision Blizzard - 750,000
02. Just Dance 2 (WII) Ubisoft > 500,000
03. Dead Space 2 (360, PS3, PC) Electronic Arts - 453,000 (441,000 without PC)
04. Little Big Planet 2 (PS3) Sony - 353,000
05. Zumba Fitness: Join the Party (WII, 360, PS3) Majesco Over 300,000
06. NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, PSP, WII, PS2, PC) Take 2 Interactive - 261,000
07. Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (360, PS3) Ubisoft - logically 245k ish
08. Dance Central (360) MTV Games - logically 229k ish
09. Michael Jackson The Experience (WII, DS, PSP) Ubisoft - logically 212k ish
10. DC Universe Online: The Next Legend Is You (PS3, PC) Sony - 195,000
xx. Donkey Kong Country Returns about About 167,000
xx. Red Dead Redemption 94,000
xx. Udraw 26,000
During January 2010, the highest software total was 653,000 for a single platform game. Thus top software doesn't look down too much, as Just Dance topped 500,000 just on Wii.
Michael Pachter has also stated that less than 20% of PS3 sales for January 2011 in the USA were Move bundles. Kinect bundles were nearly 60% of all X360s sales for the month. The overall ratio was about five to one in favor of Kinect for the month according to Pachter. With PS3 selling 267,000 units, less than 20% of hardware indicates something like 45,000 Moves sold with PS3 hardware, compared to 225,000 Kinects sold with X360 hardware.
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