Analyst Predicts PS5 Pro to Sell Over 10 Million Lifetime - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 03 December 2024 / 3,983 Views
Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners Daniel Ahmad has predicted the recently announced PlayStation 5 Pro will account for about 10 percent of lifetime PS5 sales with the mid-generation console selling over 10 million units.
"The base PS5 models will continue to be the main entry point into current gen gaming, and we continue to see the PS5 Digital Edition increase its market share due to its lower price and increasing acceptance of digital only gaming," said Ahmad.
"A price drop for the base models, combined with major releases like Grand Theft Auto 6, would be far more impactful in expanding the PS5’s installed base. However, we do not expect to see a price drop on PlayStation hardware this year or in the first half of 2025.
"We estimate the PS5 Pro will account for roughly 10% of lifetime PS5 sales, pushing it over 10 million units.
"Sony’s focus on increasing margins through high-end hardware, digital content, and premium services mirrors broader industry trends. Across the board, we see rising subscription prices, digital-only game releases, and a lack of hardware price drops, which are indicative of a focus on maximizing ARPU within a console market where platform holders are no longer seeing substantial install base growth.
"Sony is positioning the PS5 Pro as a premium product to drive hardware profitability while further cementing its position as a leading console brand.
"In fact, we believe that one of the reasons why Nintendo did not launch its next generation console in 2023 or 2024 is because Nintendo wants to ensure it can launch at a competitive price point without sacrificing its traditional hardware profit margin. Other reasons include the need for a strong software lineup from day one and that the Switch has had a stronger tail than previous Nintendo consoles."
Niko Partners own data has revealed the console market share in Asia (excluding Japan) based on its own data. The PS5 and PS4 have a combined 39.7 percent market share, followed by the Nintendo Switch at 32.1 percent, the Xbox Series X|S and Xbox One at 16.8 percent, and other and legacy consoles accounting for 11.4 percent.
Thanks, Niko Partners.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can contact the author on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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No hating on anyone that chooses to upgrade... but I have some doubts about the Pro selling 10M or more.
The PS4 Pro was only $100 more than the base and was the same price as the 2013 PS4.
The PS5 Pro is nearly $300 more than the base (digital edition) PS5 which is almost double 2020 PS5 Retail Price...
No to mention PS5 sales are slowing down noticeable faster than PS4 did so it likely won't even outsell the PS4...
As someone that bought both the PS4 Pro and One X last gen... I'd much rather invest my $700 or wait for Switch 2
I agree completely. I was totally excited and even had money saved for PS5 Pro - but at $700, that is a hard no.
It is also $700 without a disc drive, which would bring the total price up to $780 once you buy a disc drive. I was originally expecting $600 for the Digital Edition and $650 with a disc drive.
You were expecting the PS5 Pro to cost the same as the 2TB XBSX for 600$? A nearly 4 year old console. What's the logic behind that
No... I think a $600 Series X is also wild...
And I've mained Xbox this gen so far.
It's not wild though. XBSX is still a very expensive console to manufacture vs the PS5. At launch they lost 200$ per console and because costs haven't come down much, it's actually understandable. PS5 Pro at 700 is also understandable
2TB Xbox price is also relly wild to me, that thing is going to flop harder that the PS5 Pro.
The difference is that 2TB is being sold as a special, limited edition. It is a low quantity, only thru the 2024 holidays product. It can't really flop because it was never meant to be a bestseller, permanent part of the Xbox lineup to begin with.
PS5 Pro is supposed to be sold alongside the base PS5 for years and years to come. I'm sure its launch quantities will sell out. But whether Sony is satisfied with the sales for the rest of 2024 and early 2025, we will see. I am personally thinking we will see price drops across all PS5 models in March, to combat the HUGE hype around the Switch 2 launch if that happens in April.
I just double checked it, and it's not a limited edition, it's a special edition. Why would their 2TB option only be for a limited time? Makes no sense why people think this
Well, not because that Xbox Version is overpriced means it's comparable and XBSX still has a Disk Drive.
So it's OK to price a 4 year old console at 600 just because it has a disc drive that no-one will use anyway
It's OK to price it whatever you want because a gaming console is still a luxury item. The fact that no one is going to buy it is simply the result of that decision.
And how can you say that no-one is goint to use the Disc Drive if everyone is fighting for that same reason with the PS5 Pro? haha
I expect like iPhones people who have plenty of money and enthousiasts will buy it. Is that enough for 10 million units, maybe. Most sales will be US based since 800 euro en 700 pounds is quite a bit more than 700 dollars.
Well generations are blurring I do wonder who will invest 450 to euro in a old gen console when the new one is releasing 2 or 3 years later, since a PS5 pricecut is less likely than another increase at this point.
We will see... but I think the iPhone argument is largely exaggerated.
Most iPhone users do not upgrade as often as is perpetuated... and out of the ones that do, it's usually built into their phone plan and they aren't paying a grand out of pocket every 1-2 years.
Yeah I’ve never liked the iPhone argument. An iPhone is integral to your day to day life. For your personal life and for work. You never go anywhere without your phone to the point most go into a panic if they can’t find it. Smartphones have become an extension for billions of people whereas a console is still a hobby.
Yeah because like I said, the everyday person utilizes it that much that they feel they can justify the price. You can do a lot more on a phone than you can on a console. But not as much as you can on an actual PC. Is it worth the price? it's up to each individual person, but also like I said, everyone's entire personal life and even work goes with them everywhere they go. It never leaves their side while your console stays at home and is used for like what, a few hours a day on average? If that. To majority of people, the price is worth it. They'll laugh at people like us for spending similar money on a device that primarily plays video games.
But also, that's just iPhones. There's obviously a lot of much cheaper options with the same utility.
I have the money to upgrade but no need. I purchased an iphone 6 plus in 2014 and am still using it (first smartphone). I purchased it outright. I've taken it apart 3 times to install new larger batteries and thats it. I don't live on mine. I actually use mine for phone calls. I respond to maybe 5 text messages a month. I take an occasional screenshot and picture, mainly for saving files for taxes.
I'll be one of them....and with a disc drive lol
I'll also be one of them at launch but without disc drive. I think many will wait for a price cut sometime next year. 10m isn't too unlikely
Hopefully you already have the disc drive, scalpers have picked most stores clean.
Thnx for the heads up! I got a buddy that works at Bestbuy so i'll be good :)
I picked up two fro PS direct for me and my daughter.
no F*%#ing way
Getting two Pro’s-one for me and my daughter. Already purchased the drives and stands from PS Direct. I also have 4 friends getting the Pro. I think it will do well. Remember it’s not meant to be a replacement for the Base model-just an option. Nothing wrong with options.
Essay Pro