Analyst Predicts PS5 to Sell 106.9M by 2029, Including 12.8M for PS5 Pro - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 01 October 2024 / 7,417 Views
Ampere Analysis games research director Piers Harding-Rolls has predicted the PlayStation 5 will sell 106.9 million units by 2029. This figure breaks down to 94.1 million standard PS5s sold and 12.8 million PS5 Pros sold.
106.9 million PS5s sold would put it behind the PS4 by a little over 10 million units as the PS4 sold just over 117 million units lifetime.
Launch aligned, shipment figures for the PS5 is 1.8 million units behind the PS4 as of June 30, 2024. The PS5 is at 61.7 million units shipped as of said date and has sold over 56 million as of April 30, according to Sony's official figures.
"Ampere forecasts that around 1.3 million PS5 Pro consoles will be bought by consumers in the 2024 launch window," said Harding-Rolls. "This is compared to 1.7m PS4 Pros that were sold at launch in 2016. We expect the price point to soften demand with some consumers, but for PlayStation enthusiasts the pricing is less of a consideration.
"According to Ampere data, over its life, the PS4 Pro sold-through 14.5m units, around 12% of total PS4 sales. We’re expecting a similar dynamic for the PS5 Pro, with the expectation that it will sell-through around 13m units by 2029.
"Sony’s PlayStation business is now more global than ever. Eight years on from when the PS4 Pro came to market, PS5 is selling strongly in countries where there are increasing numbers of consumers with growing disposable income such as mainland China and Saudi Arabia. These markets represent a growing opportunity for PlayStation versus the PS4 generation."
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can contact the author on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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After seeing the pricepoint announced for the PS5 Pro. His figure for it sounds like a pipedream
att $700.00 plus cost of disc drive you are saying 10% plus of PS5 sales will be the pro model?
That 106.9 million units is pretty feasible if PS5 still sells a few million more after. I've got its lifetime sales at about 115 million units.
I don't see PS5 Pro cracking 10 million units, and not millions above that.
PS5 will finish around 115 million units lifetime with about 7 million Pro units of that 115 million. I obviously have gotten predictions wrong before, but the Pro won't hit 10 million or more unless it spends some of its life at $500-$600 as its standard price.
I believe many are underestimating how crippling inflation, weakening world economy, and the steep prices associated with modern console gaming are having on many. Still plenty are sticking to old gen consoles or cheaper options (nintendo) because the console, its online service even controllers and games are more expensive than ever and keep increasing in costs (used purchasing saves money but still). And theres no signs of this trend reversing. I lucked out and not only found a ps5 and xbox series X in 2021 when supply shortages still occurred, but also experienced a huge pay increase so i had the extra money to splurge. Im in the exact opposite position in 2024, and there seems to be plenty others in a similar position, especially outside USA.
Poor analysis, because it predicts PS5 Pro to sell over 25% of total PS5's sold from November 2024 until 2029.
Combined lifetime sales will depend on price trajectory and when the PS6 is coming out. If the generation is as long as it seems (at least a year longer than PS4's), it should pass the PS4 totals with little trouble. A moderate pricedrop + GTA6 is enough to revitalize sales.
If the generation is as short as PS4's, then you're gonna have to ask yourself just how expensive will the PS6 be at launch?
The PS6 won't be as expensive as this Pro as the Pro is a premium/halo product and as such isn't sold at a loss. The PS6 will launch as a base model (so is not the same type of SKU) and as such will be sold at a loss like every launch console Sony makes in order to encourage adoption. So don't see this price as an indicator for a next generation base model.
Rumor is Xbox will start next-gen with a release Holiday 2026. Hard to say when Sony will release PS6, probably not 2026 or else PS5 Pro wouldn't have much of a life, so they will probably release either 2027, or milk PS5 as long as possible and release PS6 in 2028, 2 years after Xbox.
Considering the rumors that the next gen Xbox will basically be a PC console with customizable specs and dual-layer Xbox and Windows OS, I think next gen Xbox will probably start at $500 and then have customizable upgrades that go up from there in pricing.
PS6, being a traditional console, I think they will aim for $600 with a disc drive (if they offer a disc drive at all next gen) and $550 without. These higher hardware prices due to inflation seem like they are here to stay, I doubt we will ever see a $400 console again from Sony or Xbox, let alone $300.
I think the number will be from 120 to 130-135 million. Don't forget that the PS5 will be sold a year longer than the PS4. Plus, we don't yet know how GTA6 will affect sales. It's also worth remembering that many popular games are still available on PS4.
I'll be completely honest in saying that I do not anticipate GTAVI to move sales as much as some are hyping it up to. TotK was only enough to send NSW to 15.5mil for F'24, for instance. Though it might be a bit far away, if GTAVI does release during Holiday 2025, then PS5 will likely sell 10-12mil that quarter, sending annual figrues to around 19-21mil...this is a substantial difference than when compared to no GTAVI, which would likely see PS5 sitting around 14mil F'26, though it's not the difference between 130mil and 105mil. The following fiscal year would likely see PS5 slump back down to 13-15mil, a bit higher than the trajectory without GTAVI (which would otherwise be around 11-12mil).
That all being said, I'm unsure as to what LTD would be with everything I've said...so you do the math lol. From some quick mental math, it sounds like my trajectory sends the PS5 around 110mil LTD...but this could be off. And one other thing: It is important to keep in mind that a substantial portion of GTAVI buyers will be from PC. With PC launch not coming until far later, however, I can only imagine really helping PS5 (and XBSX...especially if Microsoft takes the stance of "the cheap alternative to PS5").
Your biggest mistake is to compare ToTK a sequel to a 2017 game that released on the same console.
It’ll be 12 years without a new GTA in 2025 if the game really releases next year, and a new GTA will always move more consoles than something like Zelda.
Do you think Sony will be able (or would be willing to gamble) to produce more than 12mil PS5s for the month of December 2025? And to address your TotK comment, I’m not comparing the two. In fact, my projection would set GTAVI as having 12x greater launch. My point was that single games tend not to move tens of millions of hardware units entirely on their own. Additionally, GTAVI isn’t exclusive to PS5, so XBSX will likely eat up a similar share of sales. These feel like pretty generous estimates…20mil consoles from PS5 and XBSX combined. Does this sound too restrictive? It’s risky for Sony for to produce much more at risk of having millions of PS5 systems left unsold.
Is it bad to have unsold consoles though? Genuine question since I really don't know the answer, but I don't see why it would be so bad (assuming they'll eventually sell them)
You don't take into account that half of the PlayStation audience is on PS4, and many popular series are still coming out on PS4. At some point, they will stop coming out on PS4, and then there will be some surge in sales. This is an atypical console generation, it is difficult to estimate several years in advance.
I'm still on PS4 and with prices the way they are, I ain't paying that, and neither will most of my friends. The 105 million mark for PS5 isn't too far off. I don't see PS5 unit sales reaching PS4 sales as long as the pricing remains this way.
TotK is really not a good example at all. How many people will buy a console for that game that didn’t buy it for BotW?
im not comparing them, I’m using it as an example to show that big games for a moment don’t mean tens of millions in the long term. My estimate of 10-12mil for GTAVI is far more than 1mil from TotK. See other comments for further explanation.
Exactly... The majority of GTA players already have a console.
And people who don't already own a console will get a XSS for $300 to play GTA6 on the cheap
Doubt it will sell more than 5M.
I see no reality where the PS5 Pro sells anywhere near 10M units. $700 in America is bad enough, but 800 Euros and 120K yen make it even less appealing in those markets.
106.9 is such an odd number, but seems reasonable. As for 12.8 million PS5 pro's I think it will be a bit less, but there are probably plenty rich people who don't care. At the end of the day iPhones of 1200 dollars also sell quite well.
His PS5 figures are too low, and his PS5 Pro figures are probably too high lol. PS5 shipped 61.7m in it's first 3.5 years, he thinks the base ps5 will only ship 32.4m in the next 3.5 years?
At this point I think final PS5's numbers will reach a bit more than expected in this article - 109-112 mil. Nevertheless, I also agree that PS4 may be ahead. I think that overall the console gaming reached its peak, in 2000s decade, I would say. Now consoles see some decline though they will be produced in the long term.
A big portion of PS2 consoles were sold for $99 after the launch of PS3. We don't know what will happen with the price tag of Switch.
While initially true, the PS2 quickly became a gaming powerhouse before the Xbox and GameCube even released.
Throughout just 2001, the PS2 released GTA 3, Devil May Cry, Metal Gear Solid 2, Ico, Silent Hill 2, Jak & Daxter, Ace Combat 4, Tony Hawk Pro Skater 3, Twisted Metal: Black, Final Fantasy X, and Gran Turismo: A-Spec.
All games were primarily PS2 exclusive and a couple that launched on PS2 first. That's quite the S-Tier gaming lineup in a single year before we got the likes of Halo or Super Smash Bros Melee.
Still impressive considering the Pandemic driven chip shortages /high electronic part prices. Plus the PS5 price has not received a drop and has actually had an increase.
I read that Black Myth was driving crazy PS5 sales in China?
Seems like a pretty reasonable estimate.
GTA6, he needs to add about 20 million to that number
Most PS GTA Players already have a PS5...
and many people will get a XSS to keep cost down...
Essay Pro