Analyst: Destiny to Sell at least 15 Million Units, Likely to Outsell Call of Duty - NewsWilliam D'Angelo , posted on 29 July 2014 / 8,133 Views
Destiny is set to be the biggest new IP of the year and possibly the biggest game of 2014. Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz estimates that the game will sell at least 15 million units and has a shot of hitting 20 million units.
"We continue to believe that Destiny is a lock to sell at least 15 million copies," said Creutz. "And we now view 20 million copies as increasingly likely."
Destiny is currently outpacing pre-orders for Activision's latest game in its other big franchise, Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare. Destiny 1.18 million pre-orders in the US, while Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare hasn't even hit 200,000. This is according to VGChartz figures.
"Ultimately, we do not really think Call of Duty is going to wind up selling just around 5 million copies," said Creutz. "And therefore we do think preorders for Call of Duty — and probably other Q4 titles — are likely to accelerate significantly after Destiny’s launch. However, the question is 'how much.'"
Destiny is currently above other the big hits in previous years, according to Cowen's chart. The games are Call of Duty: Black Ops II which has sold more than 25 million units and Grand Theft Auto V which has sold more than 33 million units. However, Creutz finds it unlikely the game will sell that many units.
"Now, we still think it’s unlikely that Destiny will match the actual unit sales of [Call of Duty: Black Ops II] or [Grand Theft Auto V] due to the cap created by a PS4/Xbox One hardware installed base that we expect to be 25 to 30 million units by year’s end," said Creutz. "We do expect Destiny to spur significant hardware unit sales of PS4s and Xbox Ones, and we expect Destiny to have very high attach rate to new-gen hardware."
The analyst team has estimated that nearly 50 percent of owners of PlayStation 4s and Xbox Ones will own Destiny.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. Outside, in the real world, he has a passion for the outdoors which includes everything from hiking to having received his B.A. in Environmental Studies. You can contact the author at email@example.com.