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Analyst: Destiny to Sell at least 15 Million Units, Likely to Outsell Call of Duty - News

by William D'Angelo , posted on 29 July 2014 / 8,133 Views

Destiny is set to be the biggest new IP of the year and possibly the biggest game of 2014. Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz estimates that the game will sell at least 15 million units and has a shot of hitting 20 million units.

"We continue to believe that Destiny is a lock to sell at least 15 million copies," said Creutz. "And we now view 20 million copies as increasingly likely."

Destiny is currently outpacing pre-orders for Activision's latest game in its other big franchise, Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare. Destiny 1.18 million pre-orders in the US, while Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare hasn't even hit 200,000. This is according to VGChartz figures.

"Ultimately, we do not really think Call of Duty is going to wind up selling just around 5 million copies," said Creutz. "And therefore we do think preorders for Call of Duty — and probably other Q4 titles — are likely to accelerate significantly after Destiny’s launch. However, the question is 'how much.'"

Destiny is currently above other the big hits in previous years, according to Cowen's chart. The games are Call of Duty: Black Ops II which has sold more than 25 million units and Grand Theft Auto V which has sold more than 33 million units. However, Creutz finds it unlikely the game will sell that many units.

"Now, we still think it’s unlikely that Destiny will match the actual unit sales of [Call of Duty: Black Ops II] or [Grand Theft Auto V] due to the cap created by a PS4/Xbox One hardware installed base that we expect to be 25 to 30 million units by year’s end," said Creutz. "We do expect Destiny to spur significant hardware unit sales of PS4s and Xbox Ones, and we expect Destiny to have very high attach rate to new-gen hardware."

The analyst team has estimated that nearly 50 percent of owners of PlayStation 4s and Xbox Ones will own Destiny.

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A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. Outside, in the real world, he has a passion for the outdoors which includes everything from hiking to having received his B.A. in Environmental Studies. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com.


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16 Comments
IkePoR (on 29 July 2014)

Here's hoping it's good!

  • +4
teamsilent13 IkePoR (on 29 July 2014)

It depends. Compared to other games coming out this year yes, but compared to what we as gamers hope from next gen...not really. Expect almost every game coming out to disappoint a little due to next gen hype. I put like 30 hours in the beta. It definitely reminds me a lot of Halo campaign and Borderlands like many originally said. The upgrade system is very good, and there is definite choice with weapon attachments and they all actually mean something. The AI have good animations, but terrible pathing. It's very close to borderlands, but with better dodge mechanics. As a Halo vet, I was expecting more. There's always the possibility the final game will have a more challenging mode that we haven't seen where the AI is increased. The AI was always determined by difficulty and skulls in Halo...not just increases in health like borderlands.

PVP grew on me, but really that's something highly debatable. I saw some critical destiny reviews saying Moon was the best map because it felt realistic when everyone I knew thought it was the weakest map. Overall the experience was good, but far from perfect. There is a lot of people concerned about the size of the game, and I am with them on that. There are some cool reputation systems that were not explored in the beta. Faction loot becomes an interesting thing to earn...although the factions themselves are not very interesting beyond dialogue lines that you really have to pay attention to or you will miss it.

It's hard to judge the full game, and I'm not telling you not to buy it. Just don't expect it to be life changing or anything. I've been disappointed game after game the past couple years. I don't think this will disappoint, but it's walking a thin line. Certainly not passing with flying colors like everyone assumed.

  • +1
whatever (on 29 July 2014)

Wouldn't be surprising since Bungie will be supporting it for years. The PS4 bundle will outsell the standalone PS4 from it's release till the end of the year.

  • +3
Hakker_nl (on 29 July 2014)

uh yeah every user wants Destiny.... whahahahha. What a joke, at least analists still have humor.

  • +3
kumagawa (on 29 July 2014)

1st January 2015 Best selling PS4 games.

  1. Destiny
  2. CoD AW
  3. Fifa 15
  4. CoD Ghosts
  • +3
drake_tolu kumagawa (on 29 July 2014)
  1. Destiny, 02. Watch_Dogs, 03. Call Of Duty Ghost
  • 0
drake_tolu (on 29 July 2014)

Again... now, even the analist agree with me... DESTINY WILL DISINTEGRATE COD.

  • +3
KingCherry drake_tolu (on 31 July 2014)

I doubt it, there'll be a huge gap between this and the next Destiny game, meanwhile COD will continue its yearly release and garner more sales.

  • 0
Rogerioandrade (on 30 July 2014)

I think this is an unrealistic prediction.... an statement made just to please investitors

  • +2
oniyide (on 29 July 2014)

i remember the days when it was unthinkable that COD could outsell Halo...good times

  • +2
BraLoD (on 29 July 2014)

15M is what I expect too.

  • +2
Mr Puggsly (on 29 July 2014)

Maybe with mass bundling. I don't see a game like this doing that well.

  • +2
Devil_Survivor (on 29 July 2014)

I think that's way too high a number..... however we will see.

  • +2
teamsilent13 (on 29 July 2014)

I think Destiny will be very successful, but not anywhere close to that. I think it will sell 10 million.

  • +1
darkneal (on 04 August 2014)

15 mill across all platforms is much more realistic..

  • 0
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