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PS5 to Outsell Xbox Series X|S in 2021, Predicts Analyst

PS5 to Outsell Xbox Series X|S in 2021, Predicts Analyst - Sales

by William D'Angelo , posted on 04 August 2021 / 3,238 Views

The CEO of Tokyo-based game industry consultancy Kantan Games Dr. Serkan Toto speaking with GamesIndustry has predicted the PlayStation 5 will outsell the Xbox Series X|S in 2021 and will be "significantly ahead" by the end of the year. 

"Personally, I like the new Xbox but believe Sony's PS5 will be significantly ahead at the end of 2021 in terms of both hardware and software sales globally," said Toto.

"In Japan (where I am based), Sony is very likely to miss the PS4's first-year sales numbers because of Nintendo's continuing dominance in both companies' home market."

PS5 to Outsell Xbox Series X|S in 2021, Predicts Analyst

He also predicts the Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console in 2021 and that sales will be driven by first-party games and the release of a Switch Pro. 

"I predict a beefed-up 4K device is coming during Nintendo's next financial year. And let it be said: 'Switch' is just a word," said Toto. 

"Everybody expecting the Switch to run out of steam in 2021 is in for a bitter disappointment. The Switch will be the best-selling console this year as well, driven by more first-party games, a hardware refresh, and the device having developed into a lifestyle product for the mass market over the course of 2020."

He adds there is room for at least one billion-dollar mega-deal in 2021 with several deals in the $100-$500 million range. He sees Take-Two, Sony, and Microsoft as the most likely buyers. 

"2020 was a big year for mergers and acquisitions in gaming despite the coronavirus situation, and consolidation will likely continue in 2021," he said. "There is room for at least one billion-dollar mega deal and several that are in the US$100-500 million band, with Take-Two, Sony, and Microsoft as the most likely buyers in my view."

A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at or on Twitter @TrunksWD.

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NathanSSSS (on 05 January 2021)

I seriously doubt the 4k switch stuff, it's just unrealistic

  • +6
DonFerrari NathanSSSS (on 06 January 2021)

Could be something similar to X1S, a little beefier than the original Switch but with an added upscaler to output in 4K on TV.

  • 0
Ryotsu (on 05 January 2021)

Seriously? I would never have imagined XD

  • +5
LivncA_Dis3 (on 06 January 2021)

i think thats a given already,
power isnt everything,

Exclusives are! haha

  • +2
AFattyGamer (on 05 January 2021)

Naturally this would happen. Sony has the edge over Microsoft. PS5 is already outselling the Series X and S 2 to 1 already. If Sony rises to the occasion and produces over 20 million consoles this year, in PS5's 1st year that would be unprecedented.

  • +2
DonFerrari (on 06 January 2021)

Thank you captain obvious.

  • +1
mutantsushi (on 05 January 2021)

Very very bold take there. Laying it all on the line. LOL

I can't really say if Switch Pro will see 2021 release or not, I don't think it's "needed" but OK why not?
His words "Switch is just a word" do imply he doesn't really expect it is actual unified hardware plaform.
I mean, like PS4>PS5 just keeping basic ISA and vendor allows enough BW compatibility on it's own.
I guess relevant question may be Nintendo's stance on "crossgen release" if Pro-only games are allowed are not.
Obviously alot of technically less ambitious games can continue releasing on "base" Switch for ever, basically.
I do think the focus on console sales is ignoring the software side where Nintendo is less impressive IMHO,
and I think from business/investor side of things improving that output would be where focus should be.

And yeah, more deals seem likely, Sony did want Leyou after all, and we haven't yet seen what Epic deal is about.

  • +1
ArchangelMadzz (on 05 January 2021)

Man, that's bold of him..

I can see the Switch thing happening but that's more of a debate. I can't see Sony manufacturing more PS5's than Switches sold in 2021.

  • +1
DonFerrari ArchangelMadzz (on 06 January 2021)

Well he is saying Switch will outsell PS5 in 2021.

  • +1
MastermindPT (on 08 January 2021)

I'm not Nostradamus but I'm sure PS5 will outsell XBox X by 2:1 or even 3:1. It happen before with PS4, I think PS5 will have the highest sales of a SONY console ever.

  • 0
VAMatt (on 06 January 2021)

The only way the PS5 doesn't out sell the XSS/X is if Sony can't get supply issues straight but MS can. And, the discrepancy would have to be significant. That said, i do expect a smaller spread this gen.

4K Switch.... Who knows?

  • 0
Qwark (on 06 January 2021)

Pretty safe bet if you ask me, I doubt whether we will see a 4K Switch though.

  • 0
Mr Puggsly (on 06 January 2021)

A more powerful Switch would be interesting. Ideally it would just improve game like Xbox One X and PS4 Pro did. But should Nintendo bother with their current success? Probably not.

  • 0