PS4 and Xbox One vs PS3 and Xbox 360 - VGChartz Gap Charts – June 2019 Update - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 05 August 2019 / 3,070 Views
The VGChartz Gap charts are updated monthly and each article focuses on a different gap chart. The charts include comparisons between the 7th generation and 8th generation platforms, as well as comparisons within the 8th generation. All sales are worldwide, unless otherwise stated.
This monthly series compares the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One with the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.
The gap grew in favor of the combined sales PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 when compared to the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in the last month by 567,870 units. In the last 12 months the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 have caught up by 5.59 million units. The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One lead by a combined 18.28 million units.
The PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in their first 68 months sold a combined 121.44 million units, while the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One have sold a combined 139.72 million units.
Gap change in latest month: 567,870 - PS3 & X360
Gap change over last 12 months: 5,585,291 – PS3 & X360
Total Lead: 18,279,937 – PS4 & XOne
Total Combined PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 Sales: 121,443,873
Total Combined PlayStation 4 and Xbox One Sales: 139,723,810
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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They will end up roughly at the same numbers in the end around ~175M. First 2 years of last gen were slow but they got a very strong tail end.
PS3 + 360 = 173.21m lifetime. PS4 + XBO will win. PS4 - 125m, XBO - 50m.
PS4 + XB1 = 182m minimum. There has been some population growth since generation 6, so the total should actually be higher than PS2 + XB. In generation 7, Sony and Microsoft lost some of their customers to the Wii which explains the lower total.
I will post my predictions also here for PS4 from the previous article
best case scenario with luck and god's help - 2019 - september sony makes price cut to 199$ and PS4 make very strong sales this fall with 17-18M sales for the year, so 110M total. - 2020 - is still good strong sales for year 7, PS4 now selling at 199$ and do around 15M for the year (despite launch of PS5) , so this is 125M total - 2021 - PS4 makes 12M ( the year after year sales are dropped slightly in my scenario here and are not impossible because of PS2 sales after 2006 they dropped at very small rating they were around 2-3M drop every year until 2010 or 2011) so with 12M in 2021 PS4 is 137M total. - 2022 - 2 years in PS5 life so PS4 begin to slow down and sony makes another price cut to 149$ or 129$ in september so with this help PS4 get 8M in the year, so 145M with 2022 - 2023 - PS4 makes 5M, so 150M total - 2024 - sony makes price cut to 99$ (just like PS2 in late 2008) and helps PS4 to make 4M so 154M total. - 2025 - PS4 makes 2M, so 156M - 2026 - PS4 makes last 1M or 1.5M, 157 to 157.5M - 2027 - between 0.5M to 1M, so around 158 to 159/160M DISCONTINUED something like this for best case scenario so it beats DS and is on par with ps2 or beat it barely. Again you may not believe this sales after 2020 but see PS2, PS2 was selling between 7 and 15M after 2006 every year until 2011-2012 when dropped to 3-5M or something like this. and this is the best case scenario with luck and help of god. normal realistic case scenario: - 2019 - price cut in september to 199$, 16M for the year, so 107/108M - 2020 - 12M so 120M total - 2021 - 8M so 128M total - 2022 - price cut to 149$/129$ help PS4 make 6M so 134M total - 2023 - 4M, so 138M total - 2024 - 2M, 140M DISCONTINUED this is normal realistic scenario that can happen and is probably the most possible between the 3. worst case scenario without luck and god's help - 2019 - no price cut so 14M, total 105M - 2020 - price cut to 249$ (official MSRP now is 299$ so with the deals will be 199$) so 10M/12M, 115/117M in total - 2021 - 6 - 8M, so 120-125M total - 2022 - 3M, 123-128M total - 2023 - 0.5M - 1M, so around 125 to 130M total lifetime DISCONTINUED this is worst case scenario so even with worst case scenario PS4 will still be in 3rd place, after DS and PS2 and still with very good numbers, above 120M lifetime, and it will pass the gameboy at 118M. these are my predictions.
"Again you may not believe this sales after 2020 but see PS2, PS2 was selling between 7 and 15M after 2006"
I don't even nearly believe the sales prediction for this and next year. Even if they would cut the price to $199, they just lost too much steam already 2016 had a pristine holiday season for the PS4, catching up to the previous years again. But even then, it could only reach 17M - and it's already outselling 2019, and the gap grows wider each week.
You're comparing to the PS2 without the context: PS3 was way too expensive for most people early one, so they rather played on the PS2, especially if they didn't have HD TVs yet. And tons of casuals were playing the PS2 just for Singstar and/or Buzz. Neither will likely happen for the launch of the PS5, and thus the sales will drop much faster with the PS4.
yes ps3, was expensive, so will the ps5 be, every rumor sugest 500 to 600$ so there will be a big difference between 600$ and 199$ so many people will buy ps4, not as much as ps5 maybe but still .. (and with PS5 4K tv will be must have so there is much more people with full hd tv now than with 4k tvs) also yes PS2 had many things, and was 99$ that's why I am not saying it will do PS2 levels, (ps2 made 50m after ps3) I am saying around half of that but in no way a few units like ps3 did after ps4 ( about 7m ) that's why I am saying around 15-20M after ps5 launch, which is OK and is something normal and fully possible. As for the price cut, I said it will have effect like 2016 or close to it because the pricecut will be 100$ off the official retail MSRP price now which is 299$, 2016 was only 50$ price cut. and again this is best case scenario with luck and god's help, it may be not this case that's why I did 3 different scenarios. the normal case scenario is 16M, ps4 like it is now without price cut will probably do about 13-14M that's why with the help of 100$ price cut I put it at 16M
Yeah, you can't make new lines in the first post, that only works for replies. Some technical bug they have to pinpoint and iron out.
You're not saying it will do 50M like the PS2... and then your first scenario is pretty much exactly that. Even your second one is way overblown. Only the third one really makes sense. You also forgot to take the inflation into account. $599 these days is much less hurtful as it was in 2006, and if the release price is $499, then there shouldn't even be a problem anymore.
Btw, the way PS4 sales are going, it will need a price cut just to reach those 14M this year. During the last 10 weeks PS4 lost an average of 66K per week compared to last year. It's lacking it's big releases from last year's September and October ( Spiderman, Tomb Raider, Assassin's Creed and RDR2), so it will bleed sales very fast during that period, doubly so as the Switch will steal it's thunder during that exact period.
As a result, by the end of October, without a pricecut the PS4 would already by behind the last year by the 4M it's allowed for the whole year before even BF or the holiday rush kick in. In other words, it would need a permanent $50 pricecut just to keep up somewhat with last year and reach 14M, and even with a $100 pricecut I don't see the PS4 make 18M anymore like in your best case scenario (though 16M could be possible).
I am saying that it will not do 50M like PS2 did AFTER the new console launched, not from now on, so PS2 did 50M after november 2006, after PS3 launched, and I am saying PS4 will make around 15-20M AFTER PS5 launch, so after november 2020 or after 2020 if you want .. there is a big difference .. you misunderstood me .. also with 100$ there is small chance for ps4 to get to 17-18M, this as I said is not so realistic it is with much luck and god's help scenario, the normal one is 16M, and also yes we don't have these big games in fall but still october november december sales are way bigger than the month before, so I bet without any price cut PS4 can reach around 14M and with the price cut probably 16M maybe with much luck and god's help 18M (remember the 2009 PS3 100$ pricecut). As for the prices, okay, I am not saying it's the same but see this, for 2-3 years PS5 will be 500 or 600$ and for those same 2-3 years PS4 will be at 149/199$, many of the people, casual players and so on will pick the way cheaper machine than the expensive new one. I put the prices there not because of the how it feels like money but because of the difference price levels on the market, where is 200$ where is 600$ there is big difference, unlike ps3 with ps4, where ps4 was 399$ and ps3 was 299$ only 100$.. and even then ps3 sold around 7M after the ps4 launch.. so PS4 after ps5 there is a big chance to do around 15-20 to 25M units at best
