DFC Projects Switch 2 to Sell 15 to 17 Million units in 2025, 80 Million Units by 2028 - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 01 January 2025 / 7,096 Views
DFC Intelligence has released (via Wccftech) its latest forecast and has projected the Nintendo Switch 2 to sell between 15 and 17 million units in 2025 and to reach 80 million units by 2028.
The company expects the successor to the Switch to be the best-selling next-generation console, beating out competition from Sony and Microsoft.
The PlayStation 6 and next Xbox are forecasted to fall well behind the Switch with one of them struggling in a distant third place, depending on which one gains early momentum when they end up launching.
"There isn’t room for more than two major console systems," said DFC (via VideoGamesChronicle). "Sony or Microsoft will struggle mightily in a distant third place – largely depending on which of those companies can gain early momentum."
DFC added, "A new Sony system (PlayStation 6?) should have an advantage because of loyal base and strong Sony IP.
"Microsoft failed with Xbox Series X|S but has made major acquisitions to become world’s largest software publisher. Microsoft has the option of focusing on software and distribution models over hardware."
DFC Intelligence founder and CEO David Cole stated, "Over the past three decades, the video game industry has grown more than 20x, and after two years of slumping hardware and software sales, it’s poised to resume growing at a healthy rate through the end of the decade.
"While 2025 will mark the beginning of that upward trajectory, some huge questions remain, including who will lose the next-gen console war and who will win the game software distribution battle. And with the large publishers focused on live services around evergreen franchises, opportunities for smaller studios will be plentiful."
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can contact the author on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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Sales projections for the next Nintendo console at this stage are about as useful as a horoscope.
Something a total Taurus would say
At the beginning of every new generation (or console launch) analysts basically expect the new system to mimic the sales pattern of the last one. Unless it has already been revealed and is problematic like Xbone, Ps3, or Wii U. It's a wonder they are paid. But without knowing more about the system and it's games their opinion is as valuable as yours or mine.
There were 14.86M Switch's shipped in 2017 and 79.87M by 31st Dec, 2020. Almost identical to these forecasts.
These are not only incredibly generous predictions (it would make it the fastest-selling system ever), but their charts don't match up with each other or with the 80M prediction. That first chart makes it look like they're projecting about 90M by the end of 2028, which is far beyond any other system, and 24-25M a year for three consecutive years, which at such an early stage is also unheard of. The DS & Switch were the only systems to match or exceed ~73-75M over a span of twelve quarters, and that wasn't until around the mid-point of their life cycles. Those sales weren't flat for three straight years, either.
Also, they talk about how the game industry has grown twenty-fold in the past 30 years. First off, that's clearly not consoles, a market that has been relatively stable during the 21st century, so there's not really any point of bringing up that growth in the context of sales of a single console. Second, most estimates I've seen of worldwide gaming revenue across consoles, PC, mobile, & arcades puts the growth seen since 1993-94 at around four to five times, not twenty. Maybe DFC meant 40 years, which would probably be more accurate given the abysmal state the industry was in circa 1983-84.
All in all, DFC's analysis just seems more than a bit... off.
Switch 2 will be catching the Xseries in a about 3 years or so!
The Switch was above 50 mil after 3 years so it should probably take less than that.
xseries will continue to sell consoles during this time period
True, its sales will have to drop a lot less in future years to reach 50m though, but I could see it happening.
honestly this next generation i will probably just buy the switch 2, i have pretty much owned every console since the atari 2600
3ish years to X
5-6ish years to PS
I fully expect Nintendo to continue the dominance they've held... even with a SteamDeck2 and PS+X Handhelds on the market
The system hasn't even been revealed yet. 80 million that quick seems too unrealistic I don't think any platform has sold 80 million that fast, not even PS2, GBA. DS, or Wii.
But what are the launch games, the features, and the price? You know, three very important pieces of information we'd need to make a sound prediction!
And even then, it doesn't matter. A system is a hit based on public (the general population, not core gamers) opinion. If it becomes the "it" thing, it wins. If it doesn't, it won't matter how epic the games are, or how solid the system is, it won't dominate.
80 million in 4 years is certainly possible, but it will need very good first 2~3 years
What are the system 2 and system 3?
i believe PS6 and next-gen-Xbox, though these estimates look rather pessimistic tbh. 'Nintendo is the clear winner' is what they have stated, and 'Either Sony or Microsoft will be in a distant third'.
I don't think PS6 is lauching in 2027, new Xbox we shall see but the prediction of less than 8 million sold in 2 years is pretty wild
2028 is the latest possibility for Sony or they can keep it.
(also, the figures refer to "active installed base" & not units sold. I'm just now realizing this...)
Remember Michael Patcher said the Switch 1 AT MAX would sell 42 million? 😂😂😂 I think Switch 2 will definitely catch up and pass ps5 globally in it's third year. First year 1 1/2 years alone in japan will pass ps5 lifetime in japan.
You think the Switch successor will pass 100m sales in its third year?
The PS5 WILL NOT sell 100 million by that time. Switch 2 will pass the PS5 by it's 4th year or be close to it. Switch 2 WILL disrupt PS5 sales.
It will influence PS5 sales for sure. How strong we cannot say but it will. If it catches the PS5 we cannot say by now, it depends how the Switch sucessor will be taken. Top or Flop? Ok it won't be a flop but a minimum of 30 million LTD i can see! Outselling the XSX will be a piece of cake. I could make a console and would outsell the Xbox lol!!
The PS5 will be 70m by the end of year and still ~6 months away from the Switch successor release. How can it possibly not sell 30m units in the next 3.5 years?
ROFLMAO PS5 will not sell 100m in the next 3 years yet its already on its way to 70m. We have a new michael patcher here.
Maybe I’m misremembering…but I thought it was 40mil in the first three years?
He isn’t talking about launch aligned sales
I’m talking about the Michael Patcher projection. Thought he said NSW would sell 40mil over its first 3y, not LTD?
No he said LTD. He said the switch would be a total failure and top out at 40 mil at best,
Around 15-17 million is possible for the next fiscal year, but I don't think it'll reach 80 million by 2028. Still, I'm confident the Switch 2 will be successful in its own right.
For comparison the Switch released at the start of March and shipped 14.86M in 2017, at the end of 2020 it had shipped 79.87M. It seems these forecast are using the OG Switch as a guide.
Wait ... did they extrapolate Switch sales data, slapped new dates and Switch 2 label on the graph?
If Nintendo History is any indication they usually do well then they do badly. Just look at Wii. They did well then Wii u failed miserably, then switch was really successful 😆
GB/GBC did well, then the GBA was on pace to do great (but was cut short), then the DS did INSANE, then the 3DS did OK, then the Switch is back to INSANE.
Exactly so switch 2 will do okay or badly lol
One trillion units sold in under a week. Book it.
ye mostly in the hands of scalpers
When has a new (not iteration; new) Nintendo handheld failed? Because I can't think of even one example. This thing will sell.
At what price?
Text says 80 million, but the second graph says 60 million for the new Nintendo system by 2028. If you add up 2025 to 2028 in the first graph, you get 90+ million for the new Nintendo system. The diagrams are contradictory.
2nd graph is active install base and not units sold.
Fantasy like this is why people no longer gaf about video game sales😂
DFC Intelligence- How dare they comparing Switch "2" (Up) with PS6 or the next Xbox??? Here on vgchartz its absolutley forbidden to compare Nintendo with MS or Sony (or comparing a Playstation to a system possibly outselling it)!!!! Some marketing experts at vgchartz clearly forbid this comparision becaue of a so called "different target group"😂
No, to be serious: If even a serious well known company does this comparision, we know how serious some members denying that on vgchartz can be taken!
For the prediction: I think 15- 17 million might be a bit high, 10- 15 million is more realistic. We cannot simply charge a system that hasn't been unveiled yet. I could also call the PS6 a monster sucess or a super flop without knowing nothing about it. But the strange shadow is in the gaming industry: every 3rd console was a flop or at least massivley dissappointed (PS3, Xbox One, N64, WiiU...) .What does that mean for PS6?
Its so sweet how people downvote me for stating obviois facts! How deluded can people be? Its like i would mention te fact when a soccer team wins the championsleague that is hated by many.😂
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