Why Nintendo Switch May Become the Best-Selling System Ever - Article
by Stephen Barrett , posted on 08 October 2020 / 6,193 Views
The Nintendo Switch gaming system has proven to be a massive success with its unique functionality and well-rounded library of titles. Not only did the platform outsell its predecessor, Nintendo’s Wii U, in less than a year on the market, it's tracking higher in sales than almost any other game system before it, and it's still often difficult to find in stock.
Along with Switch hardware breaking records, many games on the platform have seen a huge increase in sales over past installments in their respective series, particularly The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Animal Crossing: New Horizons, with the latter selling a remarkable 22.4 million units in just over three months. This raises the point that the Switch will soon have six titles that will have sold over 20 million copies each, second only to the Nintendo Wii’s seven titles to achieve that same milestone; and according to Nintendo, the Switch is only about half-way through its life.
With over 65 million units sold, the Switch enters the final quarter of the calendar year, during which the system moved over 10 million units in 2019. Based on current demand, Switch sales should at least match that number for the 2020 holiday quarter, thanks to enough stock being available with Nintendo recently ramping up production by 20%. This makes its fiscal year goal (ending next March) close to 30 million units and puts the Switch install base at a minimum of 75 million by December 31st. Furthermore, this means the Switch will outsell the Nintendo 3DS in less than four years on the market, just after exceeding the handheld in total software sold earlier this year.
With the coveted 100 million mark assured for Switch sales at this point, it begs the question of just how far its trajectory will carry the system. Is it possible that Switch could eventually top the current champ, Sony’s PlayStation 2, at around 158 million units sold? It's incredibly difficult for a game system to sustain the annual shipments needed and remain viable long enough to achieve such a lofty goal. What is it that would keep Switch numbers so high and for how long? Statistically, if we look at a few facts and some past trends, we can deduce that not only is it possible for the Switch to reach similar heights, but I would argue it’s actually quite likely, starting with a few key factors that will move another 60 million units over the next three years.
No Switch 2 Anytime Soon
With Sony and Microsoft set to release new consoles, some expect interest in Switch to dwindle, affecting sales and prompting Nintendo to release new, more powerful hardware to compete. However, the idea of a more powerful system releasing now, given the Switch’s current performance and what it still has to offer, would be imprudent. Nintendo's system isn’t selling so well because people are expecting the latest graphics and its line of software is capable of continuing regardless of how well the new consoles fare. The Switch effectively sets itself apart with the strength of Nintendo’s exclusive games and by virtue of its defining attributes and portable capabilities. The Switch’s characteristics as a handheld device give Nintendo a significant advantage, making the system virtually unstoppable in its home country of Japan for the foreseeable future.
During a recent Q&A, Nintendo stated it plans on giving the Switch a longer lifespan than past consoles. While this could be taken as typical PR talk intended to maintain healthy sales, it's a similar strategy Nintendo took with its Nintendo Entertainment System and Game Boy platforms, each lasting longer than other game systems for years thanks to a steady supply of software throughout their lives. In fact, each received its best-selling titles of all time just before being replaced. This kind of robust library is what will keep Switch viable for several more years, with no direct competition in sight.
Even a quick look at Nintendo’s less successful 3DS, which lasted six years before its replacement, suggests we can expect the Switch to last at least seven more years before a successor arrives. Therefore, the soonest we might expect a new generation from Nintendo with a Switch 2 would be 2024.
Redesigns
Releasing new models of a hit gaming system can have a profound impact on sales. This is common practice for Nintendo handhelds and there have been rumors of something of this sort being on the horizon for the Switch. A redesign, with better Joycons, longer battery life, and added features like Bluetooth would offer a neoteric update to a prosperous system, instead of something more powerful that people would have to buy to play new games going forward.
Additionally, in the same way that the Switch Lite caters to those who require only a portable, it’s perfectly reasonable to predict a Switch home model in the future, for those just interested in TV play. A small, simple box with the required inputs and packaged with a Pro Controller could debut at under $200, giving people an additional cheaper option to buy into the Switch ecosystem.
No Signs of Slowing Down
Switch’s momentum will continue into next year with Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury and two new games in Capcom’s Monster Hunter series already confirmed. The highly anticipated sequel to The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild is also expected in 2021, to commemorate the series’ 35th anniversary, and Bayonetta 3 and a new Pokémon Let’s Go are also likely from Nintendo. With plenty of unannounced titles throughout the year from both Nintendo and third parties, and likely a new Switch model releasing, 2021 might actually be the Switch’s peak year for sales, so it’s quite reasonable to expect another 25 million for the system. This would bring the Switch to 100 million units sold by the end of 2021, soon thereafter passing Nintendo’s Wii in lifetime sales.
Speaking of the Wii, the popular motion-controlled system peaked in shipments with the fiscal year ending March 2009, during which time the system moved over 25 million units. Following its peak year, the Wii saw drops of around 5 million units for each of the following three years. With all that the Switch has going for it, it’s logical to expect it will fare better than Wii in its twilight years, but even applying the Wii’s descent of five million a year after 2021 suggests a total of 135m by the end of 2023, about a year before its replacement is likely to arrive.
Price Drops
With the Switch launch model still at its original retail price and difficult to find in stock, there is clearly no need for a Switch price drop any time soon. But over the course of the next three years, Nintendo has plenty of room for price cuts across all Switch models to keep sales flourishing. Unlike consoles with expensive builds limiting how low they can sell for, Switch will have no trouble coming down in price to maintain healthy sales if necessary, with the Switch Lite in particular bound for “impulse buy” territory at some point.
Fundamentally, though, it’s the games that will allow Switch to achieve this goal, and there are still many franchises in Nintendo’s catalog that will help expand the library and augment its install base. We know Metroid Prime 4 is coming and we can expect sequels to hit games like Pokémon Sword/Shield and Super Mario Party, all of which would be strong sellers. But perhaps Nintendo's biggest advantage in over 30 years is the unifying of its development teams, all now working on a single platform in the Switch, and no longer split between a home console and a handheld at the same time.
While most of Nintendo's big teams will start preparing games for Switch 2 around 2022, there are still several modest-selling series like Pikmin, F-Zero, Star Fox, Punch Out!!, and Pilotwings that should not be ignored; many of which could be handled by smaller development teams or even external developers. The Switch deserves installments of almost all of Nintendo’s intellectual properties, including a new 2D Super Mario Bros. game, which is another candidate for the 20 million club. And what if Nintendo surprises us all with Mario Kart 9 on Switch in a couple of years?
Suddenly, 135 million by the end of 2023 not only becomes plausible but perhaps a bit cautious. We can expect sizable drops in 2024 as the Switch enters its eighth year on the market and makes way for Switch 2. However, the Switch can remain a low-end unit when compared to a $300 successor, relying on value from a cheaper price and a plethora of software. With the less fortunate 3DS still managing over 9 million units sold since it was first replaced, granting the Switch another 15 million units for the remainder of its time on the market could be a fairly conservative estimate.
Under these conditions, Switch would finish at 150 million units, with a very reasonable chance for first place. The Switch is an exceptional device, with new models and price drops inevitable, and it will enjoy a steady flow of software for years to come. As long as Nintendo avoids the mistakes made with some of its recent consoles and continues to focus on the platform, the Switch could end up being the top selling game system of all time.
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Great article!
I am so happy with Switch and Nintendo's success! Switch is a total innovation and it deserves it! And don't forget PS2 sold so well cause it was a crap cheap DVD player as well... Switch sells cause it has Games and exclusives IPs :)
F-Zero, Pilotwings, and Star Fox, yes, yes, YES! Those games are all awesome.
An open world Pilotwings with beautiful environments to take photos would be amazing.
Star Fox - the characters need to be a bit edgier and maybe funnier (i.e. Guardians of the Galaxy) and dog fighting mode should be huge, multi player and online!
F-Zero, please bring it back! I know Miyamoto said he doesn't see what he can do that's new, multiplayer is too obvious and maybe hard but definitely worth a try. How about more back story for the races and galactic consequences for results of winning a circuit. Or an upgrade system to build up your "car". How about 200 cars in one race!
Wave race is also a great racer that should get some love and an update!
I'd like for Nintendo to consider the possibility of having Monolithsoft work on Mother 4. Monolithsoft apparently was interested in working on Mother 3 at one time.
158 million is much more possible now than I would've imagined at launch. But I still don't see it happening. 140-150 million is my more generous estimate and not a prediction.
- This article assumes Nintendo will wait until some point in 2024 to launch Switch 2. That's unlikely. March 2024 isn't super unlikely, but anything past that is. March or November 2023 are the two most likely release months for the Switch 2. The Wii and DS didn't take 7+ years to launch a successor. And the Famicom to Super Famicom 7 year gap was a far different and more formative time in the industry.
- Let's assume Switch launches in 2023, that means basically the entire calendar year before that will be light on first-party games. Even the Wii wasn't exempt from that principle.
- We have no idea yet how PS5 and Xbox Series S/X will affect the Switch. A sales cliff won't happen. They're not technically direct competition to the Switch. But the Xbox Series S for instance is a really appealing piece of hardware at $299.99. I could genuinely see at least a few million potential Switch owners going for the Series S instead when there is either no price difference or a small one.
March 2023 would be insanely early, zero chance of that happening. Holiday 2023 is the earliest possible launch time for Switch 2, but even that feels a tad bit too early. March 2024 seems like the most likely period, and I'd say Holiday 2024 is as likely as holiday 2023 but that could be a bit late as I would guess 2024 would be barren for 1st party software. Waiting for 2025 would indeed be stretching it, but anything before holiday 2023 is outlandish at this point.
Also a hampered Xbox Series S doesn't compare to a Switch. Anyone who buys more than a few games a year and gets an Xbox SS is gonna have to shell out another $200 for more high speed storage. There is a reason that the Switch is way more popular than the Xbox brand in general, people aren't going to buy an Xbox instead of a Switch just because the Xbox is newer.
I'm not convinced. I don't disagree with any particular point made in the article. But, that's a whole lot of things that have to happen in order to get to 150mm plus. We could throw in a few more possibilities and make a case for 200 million.
I think 75 million by the end of the year is actually way too conservative. I expect something more within the range of 77-81 million. And yes, I do think it has a very good chance of becoming the best selling system of all time.
It’s amazing. We’ve gone from the Switch competing for second place with the X1 after being considered a non-starter, to it possibly beating the PS4, and now we’re considering the possibility it could beat the PS2. That’s a long shot, but now it looks like it’s at least possible.
Well done with the article. Very well written. :)
Great article but you forgot to mention one of the best selling nintendo title of all time that is not available in the Switch right now.... Wii Sport ! I know a lot of people that will buy a Switch just for that... I they do not release it soon or next year, I really don't understand...
a new 2d Super Mario Bros. Great post.
Parroting what has already been said, great article! Hopefully we see more of these more often!
Just wanted to laugh and that's a success. The console is selling only because of Zelda. Nintendo doesn't do anything, they don't make games, they don't communicate... And it's till selling. This is definitely the biggest joke in gaming history.
Its certainly starting to look possible I'd say. I'm a bit confused about something here though: you write that the Switch could have around 135 by the end of 2023 "about a year before its replacement is likely to arrive", but further down you compare it to the 9 mil the 3DS sold after its replacement and conclude that the Switch might do another 15 mil. But are those 15 mil supposed to include both 2024 and what it sells after being replaced? Because that is indeed conservative then.
On second thought going from 25 mil in 2021 to 35 mil in the next two years would actually constitute a sizeable drop, so at that rate 15 mil after that point might not be too far off. I think the Switch would need a stronger hold than that though if it was to beat the PS2 at over 157 mil.
Hats off to Nintendo and the Nintendo Switch if they manage to actually pull of that phenomenal feat :D. The Sony PS2 is legendary, in it's own upper echelon of success. Won't be easy to topple that crown from Sony but the Nintendo Switch definetly has the potential. The crazy thing though is that the Sony PS5 is right around the corner. I've read articles that the Sony PS5 has the potential to sell 125 million units in 5 years with the insane demand and analysts predict it to outpace the PS2 sales. Those are hypotheticals but it's not out of Sony's realm of possibility. 2021 will be an insane year for Nintendo and Sony.
And I was the first one in this forum to shed light on Nintendo's genius take on consoles with the Switch and it's inevitable success.
You're all welcome.
