The Big Three Shipment Update Through March 2011 - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 26 May 2011 / 7,292 Views
Fiscal Year Shipment Totals
Shipment figures for Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft have arrived for the March 2011 quarter, and the March 2011 year in the cases of Nintendo and Sony. Nintendo profited $942m on video games in the 12 months to March 2011, while Sony's Networked Products Division had $421m in profit (the division sells more than gaming devices), and Microsoft's Entertain Division had profits of $1.29b (this division also sells more than gaming devices), with 1 quarter left to account for.
Even with healthy video game profits for all three companies, we're heading for another big transition as software is set to weaken substantially after this fiscal year. Odds are four new machines are also set to be introduced over the next two years or so - more on that below.
Over the past fiscal year, Wii remained the top selling console, but that is forecast to change in the March 2012 year.
FY 3/2010 FY 3/2011 FY 3/2012 Projected
Wii 20.5m 15.1m 13.0m
PS3 13.0m 14.3m 15.0m
X360 10.0m 13.3m 12-15m?
Portable shipments were 17.5m for DS, 8.0m for PSP and 3.6m for 3DS in the March 2011 year. The DS yearly figure was down from 27.1m in the prior year and the PSP figure dropped from 9.9m.
Overall hardware shipments were 78.2m in the March 2011 year, down from 87.8m in the March 2010 year and down from 100.8m in the March 2009 year. Most of the hardware decline is from the fall in Wii and DS hardware, but Sony's hardware shipments have dropped off annually since the March 2009 year as well.
Software shipments reached 512.6m units for Nintendo & Sony platforms in the March 2011 year, down from 539.1m in the March 2010 year and way down from 639.4m in the March 2009 year.
Game shipments for Wii, DS, and 3DS reached 171.26m, 120.98m, and 9.43m respectively in the March 2011 year, for 301.7m in total on Nintendo platforms.
Game shipments on PS3, PSP, and PS2 reached 147.9m, 46.6m and 16.4m for the fiscal year, for 210.9m games shipped on Sony platforms.
Microsoft doesn't provide software shipment figures, but with a record year for X360 hardware, software shipments were likely flat from the March 2010 year overall.
March 2012 Year Forecast
Sony projects to ship 15m PS3s, 6m PSPs, and 4m PS2s in the March 2012 year. Nintendo projects to ship 16m 3DS, 13m Wiis, and 11m DS systems. Thats 65m systems - so depending on X360, hardware shipments shipments should be flat compared to the previous year.
Nintendo forecasts Wii games shipments will reach 120m (132m with bundles), in addition to 67m DS and 62m 3DS games for the fiscal year, for about 260m games in total on its platforms.
Sony forecasts game shipments will be about the same as in the past year (210m) but didn't provide a breakdown. At this point you'd have to expect something likely about 152m games for PS3, about 38m for PSP, and 8m for PS2, plus any NGP games (although Sony did not give an NGP forecast). Sony had projected 15m PS3s in the March 2011 year and missed the target, so a price cut is likely coming sometime soon to push PS3 to 15m
Microsoft doesn't give software forecasts, but with flat or down X360 software shipments, total software should be down 10% in the March 2012 year. Kinect should largely determine the X360 performance going forward, as Microsoft shipped 8m Kinects in November & December 2010, and then 2m more through February, and 400,000 more in March.
As far as meeting the targets go, the 3DS target looks the most ambitious (80,000 / week is hard to turn into 16m in a year), followed by the Wii and PS3 hardware targets - each looks a little high at the moment even with price cuts.
Life Time Shipment Totals
Lifetime to date, the largest software ecosystems of all time (including estimates for X360 software), are the following 10 systems.
X360 (500m) and PS3 (438m) are slowly moving up the ranks, while DS (839m) continues to trend as a nearly identical software market to the PS1. Wii (716m) is trending between PS1 (962m) and PS2 (1529m) for software and will probably pass PS1 around the same time as DS. PSP (298m) is still 80m units away from being one of the biggest software markets ever, and probably won't ever pass the idle SNES and GBA.
PS2 officially became the first video game system ever to top 150m units this quarter, lifetime shipments are now 150.9m. DS, at 146.4m, should finally overtake PS2 in the March 2012 year, as PS2 is forecast to reach 154.9m at the end of March 2012, while DS is forecast to reach 157.4m. It now looks like PS2 will fall just short of 160m units lifetime, while DS should get to 165m-170m units lifetime.
PSP, which is forecast to ship 6m in the March 2012 year, probably has just enough left to top GBA at 81m, as if Sony's forecast is met the system will be at 75.5m in March 2012. Even so, 80m is not yet a lock for PSP - it will depend on when Japanese sales begin to slow substantially.
PS3 overtook SNES hardware this quarter, and now stands behind only five other consoles - PS2, PS1, Wii, NES, and X360. At some point X360 and PS3 will probably switch places, as PS3 tends to gain 1-2m units on X360 per year on average. Both X360 and PS3 should top NES by this time next year - at which point they'll trail only PS2, PS1, and Wii (plus PS3 or X360).
Wii should top 100m units about a year from now, and then pass PS1 to become the second biggest console of all time by late-summer 2012.
The Remainder of the Console Generation
With Wii now in its third fiscal year of decline after its 26m peak in the March 2009 year, Sony's PS3 is forecast to ship 2m units more than Nintendo's Wii, in what is very likely to be the peak PS3 year. After March 2012, new systems are set to arrive and declines should accelerate for each of the current consoles. If we include the Wii and PS3 forecasts from Sony and Nintendo for fiscal year six which ends March 2012, we see the following in an aligned launch comparison.
So far, in an aligned launch each fiscal year has been Wii, PS3, and X360 in terms of units sold. Going forward PS3 will probably slightly outperform Wii and X360 over each of the next few fiscal years even as it begins to decline after the March 2012 year. Materially, this means little as PS3 will likely reach about 95m units, while X360 is likely heading towards 85m, and Wii is heading towards 125m.
Figures could end up +5m / -5m for each system, but PS4 and Wii 2 are known to be in development, and rumors of the new Xbox have started to come out. Wii 2 at the least is coming in 2012. Given new systems in the next year or two, declines across the board of 20% or more from 2012 on are quite likely and lead to the following figures for the rest of the generation.
DS and PSP, after combining to reach 45.3m in the March 2009 year dropped to 25.5m in the March 2011 year. With a similar trajectory, the 44m or so consoles to be shipped in the March 2012 year - a nearly identical figure you'll notice to the portable peak - could fall to 23m or so in the March 2014 year - and that is why we're starting to hear about new systems.
Sony's software forecast also implies a big drop off in purchasing rates - something also seen in Nintendo's forecast. The projected flat software sales for Sony platforms, on forecast 30% growth in the PS3 base means that annual purchasing rates should be falling 20% or so - to 2.4 games per user per year from the 3.0 games per user per year recorded in the March 2011 year. The drop could be even worse if Sony's flat software projection is meant to include NGP. Combined PS2 and PSP software should be 10-20m units lower in the March 2012 year as well.
Wii users bought two games on average in the previous fiscal year, and that is forecast to fall to about 1.3 games in the March 2013 year - PS3 looks to be about two years behind the curve on declining purchasing rates compared to Wii, but that is offset by a far smaller base. When Wii reached 50m two years ago, software sales in the trailing 12 months were 202.5m, compared to the 147.9m achieved by PS3 in the 12 months to 50m. By the time PS3 gets to 60m, 70m, and so on, annual purchasing rates should continue to be slightly weaker than Wii purchasing rates in the 12 months to the milestone. In the 12 months to when Wii reached 70m for instance, Wii users had bought 2.7 games on average - PS3 users will likely be buying less than 2 games on average in the year to when PS3 reaches 70m.
If PS3 purchasing rates fall off more than expected in the March 2013 year, say to 1.5 games bought per user annually instead of 1.9 games per user, there would be a rapid deterioration of the PS3 software market, as the X360 software market, which partially supports the PS3 software market, is also peaking.
Since Wii, and arguably X360 are already seeing more substantial drops in purchasing rates than PS3, the relatively strong hardware sales in the fiscal year to March 2012 looks like the last big barrier to big time console software drops that will be coming across the board starting next year.
The realities of software purchasing rates on the current systems are why new consoles will be out over the next 15 to 30 months.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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Sims exchange is based upon peoples opinion what will happen, using that as a benchmark is horrible.
http://www.simexchange.com/frontpage.php : in the end : 360 : 93m ps3 : 84m, the inverse of VGC guess ! 5/-5 means PS3 could reach 100M at best, that would be very close to PS1 (102.5m) ! I guess on PS3, but maybe not that much as 95M...
I think Sony can do over 15 milllion. 16-17 million sounds about right
Great article. I think Wii lifetime sales will bottom our around 110-115, Wii just got a price cut, and sales increased just a tad. Microsoft will continue selling well if more Kinect games hit the market, but I think lifetime will end up around 85-90. PS3 will definitely reach 95 and maybe even pass 100 but it may take another 6-7 years to get there.
I doubt Sony's numbers include the NGP. Most likely they will adjust their numbers to include, as they usually make alterations to their forecasts late in the year. Or maybe it's early next year. W/e. And unless Cafe is something truly revolutionary, I doubt it will affect sales of the other consoles by much, especially if MS and Sony decide to price cut around its launch. I also think that Wii will struggle to hit 125 mil. My guess would be 110 mil, but 125 mil MAY be possible when the Wii hits $99, but definitely will be the limit. And nice to see the PS3 may come close to the PS1's sales. DS will finally pass the PS2 in sales this fiscal year, so way to go Nintendo. Even though I don't think it's a completely fair comparison, it's still quite a feat. However, I do think Nintendo is wrong and the DS will outship the 3DS this fiscal year. Unless of course, Nintendo drops its price by $50 before its even a year old., but I also think the DS will outship the 3DS this fiscal year, too.
Great article, though the HW figures for Wii and PS3 appear too high. 100-110m and 85-90m seem more likely at the current pace.
wii ltd is way to high in your forecast, depending on if microsoft releases the next console early(2012) it could drop off way harder. i expect ps3 to sell better for way more years than wii and xbox because of their continued support in more countries than the others. (ps2 is still selling consoles, xbox1 and gamecube not)
With a price cut on Kinect it'll easily be up YoY, MS will beat Wii this FY ...
Wii LT sales will fall short of 100M, 125M is too much.
Wii will end up second in this fiscal year, X360 will not pass Wii. maybe in 2013 it will, but then will be too late and almost useless.
who wants to bet that sonys going to cut features from ps4 after they announce it
Hardware sales, I think the Wii price cut will boost sales similar to an aligned launch PS2 price cut boosted PS2 sales (Wii has been outselling PS2 every year if you align launches). However next year Wii sales will begin to crash. As for HD consoles, the likely price cut this fall will keep both HD console sales flat, but next year I expect sales to drop. Also I don't agree with overall hardware estimates, how can PS3 sell 10 million more units then 360, despite in the past 5 years they had both sold about the same? Even if PS3 averages 1-2 million units a year more, in 2-3 years they won't be primary consoles. I thi k PS3 will eventually outsell the 360, but it's not certain. If the Japanese market starts supporting NGP and PS3 sales drop, 360 sales could be above PS3 total. After all 360 does outsell PS3 weekly in the combined Americas and EMEAA region and during the holidays, 360 sales jump significantly higher, worldwide. I feel 80m for PSP, 180m for DS (about double GBA sales after DS launched), 130m for Wii, and about 90m for both the PS3 and 360.
This article just gets me so excited for E3, and a future PS4 and 360 successor announcement. Oo I can't wait.
Software wise I believe 2012 will be stronger than you believe, especially thanks to GTA5...
I would tend to disagree with the forecast for hardware sales in the next year, Wii started to drop like a stone and suddenly you have the HD consoles selling roughly the same as the Wii in the next 3 years.
This is veeeeeeery informative, good read. I just think you're way overestimating the Wii's last Years. 125 Million seems way out of reach. 115 is more likely, and even that that's not exactly sure to be hit.
