Nintendo Misses Wii / DS HW Projections & 3DS SW Projection - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 25 April 2011 / 7,817 Views
Nintendo's fiscal year results for the March 2011 year, and forecasts for the March 2012 fiscal year have just arrived. During April to December 2010, Nintendo had generated revenues of 807.99b Yen ($9.80b) and profits of 49.557b Yen ($601m). For the year to March 2011, revenues totaled 1.014 trillion (t) Yen, $12.31b, meaning revenue in January to March 2011 reached 206.355b Yen ($2.504b). Nintendo's profits for the year reached 77.621b Yen ($942m), which indicates January to March profits of 28.064b Yen ($340.6m).
Nintendo had projected it would generate 1.10t Yen and 90b Yen in profit for the year, so the actual figures above indicate a 8% miss in revenue and a 14% miss in profit respectively. Revenue dropped off 29.3% from the March 2010 year, and profit fell 66.1%. For the year ending March 2012, Nintendo projects revenue of 1.10t Yen ($13.34b) and profit 110b Yen ($1.33b), which would be a slight increase in revenue (8.4%) and a 41.7% increase in profit. All exchange rates used for these calculations are based on $1 = 82.4 Yen. Nintendo has not listed Wii 2 in its projections for the fiscal year, but did officially confirm that it would show it off in a playable form at E3 and release sometime in 2012.
For the fiscal year ending March 2011, Nintendo shipped 3.61m 3DS systems, 15.08m Wiis, and 17.52m DS systems. Nintendo had projected 16m Wiis, 18.5m DS, and 4m 3DS systems would be shipped for the year, so Nintendo missed its targets by 5-10% for each system. Based on December 2010 shipment totals, Nintendo shipped 1.37m Wiis and 1.83m DS systems in addition to the first batch of 3DS systems. Lifetime shipment figures through March 2011 are now 86.01m for Wii, 146.42m for DS, and 3.61m for 3DS.
Nintendo has shipped 41.18m Wiis to the Americas, 11.59m Wiis to Japan, and 33.24m Wiis to EMEAA through March 2011. The DS base stands at 32.76m in Japan, 55.13m in the Americas, and 58.53m in EMEAA through March 2011. The nascent 3DS base is at 1.06m systems shipped in Japan, 1.32m systems shipped in the Americas, and 1.23m systems shipped in EMEAA, although sell through is substantially lower.
On the software front, 9.43m 3DS games were shipped for the fiscal year, along with 171.26m Wii games and 120.98m DS games. The Wii and DS figures are in line with projections for software, but 3DS software shipments were projected to reach 15m for the quarter. Based on December 2010 shipment totals, 20.72m Wii games shipped in the March 2011 quarter, along with 22.00m DS games and the 9.43m 3DS games. Through March 2011, 839.48m DS games have shipped worldwide, along with 716.06m Wii games, and the initial wave of 3DS games.
To date, based on shipment figures, the average Wii owner has bought 8.32 games, and the average DS owner has bought 5.73 games. 3DS figures indicate 2.61 games shipped per system, but so far sell through is closer to 1.1 games per user. Wii remains heavily Western oriented, while DS is now Nintendo's most successful software market in Japan after the original NES / Famicom.
Regionally, in the Americas, the average Wii owner has bought 9.63 games, compared to 7.79 games in EMEAA, and 5.22 games in Japan. Nintendo shipped 1.06m 3DS systems to Japan in the quarter, and retailers bought 2.06 games for those systems. That compares to 1.32m 3DS systems shipped in the Americas, where 3.94m games shipped for 2.98 games per system. EMEAA was in between, with 3.31m 3DS games shipped for 1.23m systems, or 2.69 games shipped per user. On the original DS, the average purchasing rate for a Japanese user is 6.08 games, compared to 6.18 games for the average DS user in the Americas, and 5.12 games for the average DS user in EMEAA.
Nintendo has also issued forecasts for the March 2012 fiscal year. Wii hardware shipments are expected to drop to 13m units from 15.1m units, with software falling to 120m units. The 120m forecast figure for Wii software excludes bundled software. With roughly 11.5m systems going to the West if Nintendo attains its forecast, something like 143m games will be shipped overall, down from 171m games including bundles in the March 2011 year. For DS, Nintendo expects hardware shipments to fall to 11m units for the fiscal year, down from 17.5m in the March 2011 year. DS software is expected to fall to 67m units from 120m units in the March 2011 year. The good news in the forecast is that Nintendo expects 3DS software shipments to grow to 62m units (from 9m), while 3DS hardware is forecast to grow to 16m in the March 2012 year from 3.6m in the March 2011 year.
HW FY 3/2011 FCST HW FY 3/2012 SW FY 3/2011 FCST SW FY 3/2012
Wii 15.08m 13.0m 171.26m* 143m*
DS 17.52m 11.0m 120.98m 67m
3DS 3.61m 16.0m 9.43m 62m
Total 36.21m 40.0m 301.67m 272m
Nintendo's forecast is interesting for a couple of reasons. For one thing, 3DS software probably made more money as a market than DS software did in its first fiscal year, even with less time in the year. From November 2004 to March 2005, DS software shipments were 10.5m while from February 2011 to March 2011 the more expensive 3DS had software shipments of 9.4m. At 62m 3DS games shipped in the March 2012 fiscal year, 3DS would remain well ahead of DS (50m in the year to March 2006) for software shipments. The DS also started off much slower for hardware - shipping 5.27m units in the year to March 2005, but only 11.46m in the year to March 2006. Essentially, Nintendo is saying it thinks 3DS shipments can reach 19.7m units in 13 months / two fiscal years, while DS shipments reached 16.7m units in 17 months / two fiscal years.
Nintendo's forecast for increased profitability in the March 2012 year also appears tied to increased hardware shipments - not increased software shipments. That is a bit of a dangerous forecast given 3DS has slowed quite a bit since launching well in February and March. Even so, the forecast 3DS pace, at 16m in its first full fiscal year, would be below the Wii pace in its first full fiscal year. Nintendo's projection of 13m Wiis for fiscal year six is also quite good when looking at the history of the company in the console market. The big question for Nintendo over the next two years will be how quickly to kill off the Wii, as it could easily be Nintendo's biggest product for the next two years if 3DS and Wii 2 underperform in this fiscal year and the March 2013 year.
Note: NES launch year is the fiscal year ending August 1983 (Japan). NES launched in 1985-1986 in the USA and Europe.
The projected DS software drop is also a bit surprising - 67m units on a projected 157m base through the fiscal year indicates only 40% of DS users will buy a game within the fiscal year - down from about 90% in the March 2011 year. Scaling back to the big picture though, the Wii & DS are still projected to be a 210m unit software market in the March 2012 fiscal year, so with 3DS growing still in the March 2013 fiscal year, and Wii 2 also arriving that year, software shipments on Nintendo platforms could rebound pretty quickly after the forecast drop in the March 2012 year. The Wii software projection implies the average Wii owner will buy only 1.4 games in the March 2012 year. However, as with the DS in 2009-2010, so long as Wii software purchasing rates remain around one game per year or more for the average user, the software market remains large, particularly compared to Nintendo's previous systems, especially since Nintendo's share of the total Wii software market is shrinking faster than the overall market.
Note: NES launch year is the fiscal year ending August 1983 (Japan). NES launched in 1985-1986 in the USA and Europe.
When Wii purchasing rates fall to about one game per user, which is likely in the March 2013 year, it looks the Wii 2 will be ready so Nintendo appears to be handling the Wii to Wii 2 transition fairly well. 3DS has had some launch issues, but it was introduced roughly when the average DS user started to purchase one game per year - which is when base size starts to become nothing more than a buffer against the death of the platform. Nintendo appears to be following the one game per user rule with the Wii 2 launch as well.
The leader of Nintendo, Satoru Iwata, is set to present information tommorow about the coming fiscal year, so stay tuned for more information from Nintendo.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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Well, overall yes but Wii / PS3 figures were nearly identical this fiscal year.
It's a amazing that 15 million is consider low. We all know they still sold more hardware then both Sony, and Microsoft.
So, Wii SW undertracked by about 50M and DS SW by 167M. Still, this doesn't matter now that Project Cafe is confirmed and will be playable at E3!
it looks like the forecast for this coming year is going to depend heavilly on the success of the 3DS. It will be interesting to see how many Wii Nintedo will be able to sell during holydays which is tradionnally it's strongest period.
good news is that we can finally lay to rest of those talks of whether the Wii will ever pass the PS2 lifetime or not. It will not happe..ever..
Yet despite the critical current performance of 3DS, their forecasts for the first fiscal year are even higher than DS... :)... It is incredible that DS can sell 11 million units ... XD... Wii may meet its forecast mainly due to consumers seeking a lower price and are not hardcore gamers ... But games like Zelda rot be an excellent excuse to buy one, until they confirm the month of launch and the price of Project Cafe ... XD
Wii overtracked by around 1 million. I think their target of 13 million is absolutely impossible. When a new system is announced sales usually drop immensely. I perdict 10-11 million Wiis through FY March 2012
I predict they will hit 12M rather than 13M, with big price cuts they should do it.
The original forecast for the Wii was 18 million. That was then cut to 17.5m. Then in Q3 it was cut again to 16m.
With how things stand now I wish them luck hitting their 13 million target even with price cuts..
Well it looks like the Wii is over tracked by about 700k maybe a little more. As for 3DS sales i think the Nintendo's 16million prediction is awfully high unless they have ALOT of software to announce at E3
Can someone tell me what they expected for the Wii during last Years financials? What was the original expectation for Wii HW?
They hope it will hit 99M March 2012, so I dobut they will only hit 100M in march 2013, they should hit 100M in Summer 2012, unless prices cut makes a differen then it will hit 100M earlier, still I expect 90M this fall.
It's incredibly regrettable that Nintendo decide to abandon it's most successful home console ever, the Wii was an absolute monster, just look at FY3, I'm pretty sure it's selling as much as all their previous consoles combined! Still, the rate of decline doesn't seem to be too fast, it slowed down in hardware and remained steady for software. Should reach 100 million smoothly in 2 years.
