Can the Underdog Overthrow the King? - News
by Miles Taven , posted on 30 April 2011 / 11,874 Views
The following article is based solely on the U.S market, all numbers are sourced from NPD except 2011 Playstation 2 figures which are based on VGChartz figures.
Can the Xbox 360 do the unthinkable and pass PlayStation 2 lifetime sales in the United States of America?
Look back to May 2010, pre-Kinect E3 bonanza and, more importantly for this statement, the unveiling of the new Xbox 360 Slim, and not many would have thought Microsoft's nearly 5 year old console would see yet more year over year growth in the U.S. Its decline was supposed to be imminent, after all it had already defied the infamous, now-outdated 3rd year peak; how much longer could it keep getting these fantastic sales? Well, it seems the Slim was just the beginning.
Roll forward to the current day and the Xbox 360 is enjoying its fifteenth consecutive month of year over year growth in the U.S, and it doesn't look like it's going to stop there. Microsoft seem pretty confident going forward into FY2012, 'Expect momentum to continue with more to be shared at E3'
So how do Xbox 360 sales in the U.S stack up to the champion of the previous generation, the Playstation 2? 
The current gap sits at just under 19.2 million, falling from a peak 32.7 million. Now you may be thinking: 'hang on, the gap has only closed 14 million in 5, going on 6 years, and you expect another 19 million to be erased?' Well, the 360 has actually closed the gap more in the last 2 years, give or take a few months, than it has in its 5 year 4 month existence, due to the PS2 outselling it for most of the 360's early life.
As you can see from the chart above, the PS2 had a very strong start in life, but suffered that 3rd year peak. As the console got weaker as the years passed, the X360 took the opposite direction, only getting stronger. It's now reached the point where 360 is now doing significantly better at this point in its life than the PS2 was. The bold indicates how much the 360 outsold the PS2 in their respective years on an aligned scale. 2011 is, of course, only 3 months in, but the 360 is already looking like it'll increase on its 1.25 million last year.
These are the sales for both consoles in the same year, over the Xbox 360's life. It took until the 2008 price cut to move ahead of the PS2 significantly. Due to Kinect, and PS2 obviously declining heavily at this point, the X360 more than doubled the gains it made from the previous year.
On a rolling 12 month scale, PS2 is a tad over 0.5 million units sold. However, with an average monthly rate of 30k sold recently, it's unlikely to see anything more than 350k this year. If the 360 manages to stay flat, or gain a year over year increase, it will lower the gap down to a range of 13-14 million.
After that, 2012 will most definitely see year over year declines, although the chances of it selling over 5 million in 2012, after selling 7 million the previous year, are good, especially considering only one new competitor will be on the market, and even that one is likely to be released towards the end of the year. This would put the gap at 8-9 million.
We can see after the 2nd peak the PS2 had, its sales roughly fell within a 1 million range each year. For the majority of 2013 the Xbox 360 will likely be without a successor on the market, so although it will be entering its twilight years, it will still be a platform Microsoft will be concentrating on.
If it's lucky to see similar drops as the PS2, and given it won't likely hit $99 until the Wii 2 hits, it's a distinct possibility that the 360 could sell 4 million in 2013, 3 million in 2014, 2 million in 2015 and 1-2 million for the remainder of its life. This would put the gap 1 to 3 million in Xbox 360's favour, 47-49 million lifetime.
Given its library, its impressive reaction from the U.S audience and a couple of price cuts left in it, it's likely the Xbox 360 will become the legacy console in the U.S and not the Wii. The PS3 will also sell well in its twilight years, but given this is the U.S market and so far nothing has dented the Xbox 360 in that respect, it's unlikely to overtake the Xbox 360 here.
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For the first time I can see the 360 as the best selling home console ever in the US. Before this article I never suspected it to beat the Wii and even less the PS2 ! It's gonna be a tough fight and a close one.
Could turn out very interesting. Will it outsell the PS2? I do not think so, but I bet it will get a hell of a lot closer than most people think.
It changes your point completely, just because 360 won't catch PS2 WW, doesn't mean you can't talk about one region, you don't have to stick to WW to talk about sales all the time. It's not falsely stating anything.
TC Squared, did you even read the article? How about the first line :-S
First all seece, overthrow the king is a bit much. But i guess you got what you wanted. But, no The 360 won't sell more than the PS2 in the US, UK yes.
Really another 7M this year? you do relies that last year there was a remodel, Halo Reach, Kenict, and no PS3 or Wii price cut, i also believe most of those purchases where rebuys. 360 will be down YOY in the coming months and everything is unknown for the holidays as a PS3 or even Wii price cut could change things and kenict wont have the same effect it did last year. I can understand some of the negative comments below but i think the article would be better if made by someone at least from USA
It's just a title so it doesn't matter, the first line of the article and the article states it's U.S, so no reason for you or anyone else to get wound up ^^
@SGielen: /facepalm -_-
OK, now make this an interresting comparison: compare the worldwide figures, and while you're at it, why not compare the lifecycle of the xb360 and the ps3, same generation. When I start comparing japanese and american product sale in Japan, I won't be suprised by the outcome if the japanese product comes out the winner. Why not compare in a neutral region and see which console sells best, this is a cough little cough chauvinistic
By the way, this article's numbers are wrong. As of January this year, 150 million PS2 consoles have been sold. At the same time, 50 million Xbox 360 consoles have been sold.
Not a chance. Xbox 360 has sold as well as it has because it's the only one there is. If we want to play Xbox/Xbox360 games, we have to buy the Xbox 360. Typical gamer loves the games, but hates the console due to unreliability. When the "Xbox 720" comes out--which I assume MS will make sure it doesn't have the same problems--the Xbox 360 will stop selling. It just won't have enough time to surpass PS2 sales. "Xbox 720" on the other hand, that could possibly do it.
I paid $43.99, not $60 for Live Gold (Amazon) and last time I checked, they haven't shut it down. On Topic, price cuts, bundles and special editions offer a compelling incentive to purchase an already popular console (Red Wii anyone?)
i also agree with iplayeverything
well it could happen?
my question is why call it the "underdog". It's obviously the "hometown favorite". PS3 is the underdog this gen.
@sonyisbp my goodness a reasonable human being with a view from above. makes me smile. The man will all three consoles(me) agrees. Options are the greatest part of my gaming. I can play ps 3 exclusive or watch a blueray; I can play xbox 360 exclusives; I can buy the better looking or higher performance of multi-console releases; I can play mario or zelda. It is absurd to route against anyone's success. All these companies bring good things and if your open minded and have some case, you can enjoy them all. good comment!
@theshonen8899 Now that you've gotten that out do you have anything to say about the article? On topic, I think the 360 has a chance but I don't think the chance of it happening is that great.
Nice job by MS and really all three companies to thrive in the US market, it's a shame the Japanesse market doesn't appreciate the great value of the 360, or this article could have focused on the entire world.
i think its good to have no one console at the top around the world and that they are competing well allover. better choices, and better products because of the differences that all regions can benefit from. nevermind the fanboy trolls. its good to be a gamer over a fanboy.
Amazing, can we ask Microsoft how they done that, maybe it's the first console in history to rise and rise and rise year after year, 2005 figures are not for one year it's only 2 months so even if new Nintendo console effects the 360 sales, what's been achieved is marvelous
In xbot land everything is possible...
I'm surprised by this, but if you look at the European figures, PS3 is the clear winner. I thnk if a new Nintendo console is pitched as the latest and greatest this will effect sales dramatically. I think Xbox hasn't been as popular in the rest of the world is because of the mark up the put on XBL gold. It's $80 a year in alot of countries!
There is nothing wrong about this article. 360 is indeed doing very well in the States. The fact that I too think the ps3 is much better is irrelevant. Though, I don't think anyone is butthurt; they just don't understand the logic of buying a 360 instead of a ps3. At any rate, Congrats to Microsoft for turning things around mostly in the US. That's a huge achievement.
Why is it hard to respect the xbox 360's success these days? common guys, sony and wii have its days too. No need to be an butthurt asshole because your fav. console is losing its shares.
The Xbox 360 has a good library? What exactly is there on the Xbox 360 that can't be played on a PS3 or PC? Halo? Gears of War? Um, okay. What about PS3? Uncharted, LittleBigPlanet, God of War, Metal Gear Solid, Heavy Rain, Killzone, Demon's Soul, Gran Turismo, etc. What about Wii? Super Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Resident Evil 4, No More Heroes, Red Steel, etc. PC? Starcraft II, Civilization, Guild Wars, World of Warcraft, Command and Conquer, and any multiplatform game pretty much looks/plays best on a PC. Okay well maybe Xbox 360 doens't have that much games. At least it's cheap right? Wait, I need to pay at least $60 a year to play games online? Okay well, maybe it's not cheap and it has a bad library, but fuck it, my friends play Halo and use Xbox Live so I'm going to be a conformist and buy an Xbox too! Only in America does the Xbox 360 sell well because of this retarded logic.
Seece, You're right in some things that I said wrongly...XD... HOWEVER, what I do not like about this article is that it assumes that the Wii will not sell significantly more in the U.S., it is too early to make that statement. And sorry, but 300,000 units of distance for the American market is NOT an abysmal difference... Wii continues to sell, less but still sells and the merit is that it does so without the improvements and updates to its competitors... New Packs, Great titles, a good advertising campaign and new price cuts will enable Wii to battle... :) ... Greetings!
@ Maverick, who said US = the world, where is it implied in the article? That's a stupid reason not to do an article based on the US market.
I'm not sure why some are butt hurt over this article? Everyone knows the US is the biggest market for game sales in the world so selling the most units all time in that region is a pretty big deal. Looks like the 360 could very well do that if its momentum continues for the next 2 years. Still too early to tell though.
Nice speculative analysis here. It's really sad so many got offended by it, but here we are.
@DestroyaX: They're just trying to make a statement...a pretty small, negligible statement. If this case is anywhere close to WW then there's something people could really talk about.
im confused why does the US totals matter when it should be the WW totals n y dont they do this with the xbox to the ps3 ?
Looking at the numbers, it very well could wind up overtaking the PS2's US sales. The XBox has a lot of strong titles coming out this year, so the near future is looking pretty solid.
@ hatmoza, I havn't taken it personal, I'm just trying to get reasoning out of you on why you disagree, but you just persist with nothing.
Wow what's with all the arguing??
You have though, because you can't come up with a reason to argue against it, so you've posted silly comments, I think that's the definition of taking it personal ;-)
They're not though are they, the article is based on NPD numbers, that Sony use. Nothing cherrypicked, nothing selected, just what the sold in what years ;-) You can disagree all you like, you have nothing to back it up though, so it just looks foolish.
Hatmoza, are you actually going to say anything of worth?
Demand will be the factor on how long they keep it shipping for, not how many countries it ships too. And although PS2 (and pooossibly Wii) get better WW demand, I reckon the 360's demand in the US, possibly Canada, UK ect will be enough. Like alba so rightly said, if they're making a profit, there's no reason not too. The sales of the 720 in its early life won't really be affected by 360 still being on the market, different audiences.
Well, the PS1, PS2, Wii are so popular in so many places, I can see their lives going years after new consoles were released, but the 360 will be a third place console. We have had many consoles that have done well in specific territories, doesn't mean their lives get extended once a new version gets release.
There's always a first chance? would you have said the same during the PS1 era? .... it's a bit of a weak argument when you say they won't do it just because they havn't done it before ...
Yeah, but MS hasn't done so I don't expect them to unless they plan on shipping to two countries.
Just like for Sony trying to push GT5 up to prestigious sales goals, like 10M or beating any previous version, and to try to get 2nd place WW for PS3, as long as it can be done without losing money, it just makes sense for MS too to try this. IMVHO obviously.
I think that's a weak argument, Sony went from shipping 1 in demand console to 3 in a matter of 3 years, MS are very capable of shipping 2 consoles, that isn't the difficult part. It's supporting that console with Sw. But come late 2013, exclsuives wont be selling the 360, it's library and cheap price will.
Well, you got it. MS can't even ship one console when the demand is there, i don't see them doing two for more than a year.
Based on what psrock? The fact they havn't got a handheld, or the fact they killed off the original Xbox?
The 360 will continue to sell after the next XBOX comes out. MS has already said the 360 is at least a 10 year console. I don't expect MS to announce a new system until E3 2013, then release it either late 2013 or early 2014. The 360 probably won't be discontinued until 2016 or 2017. I also fully expect the 360 to catch Wii sales in the US. You want to talk about a drop off. Wait until Nintendo announces their new system at E3. If you thought Wii sales were going down hill before, you haven't seen nothing yet.
MS dosesnt seem like a company that's going to be shipping two consoles , i think new xbox comes out, old xbox production barely continue.
@psrock, I already said it's dependant on the next 2 years, if it does 7 mill this year and 5 mil in 2012, that puts it at 38 mill roughly without the 360's successor on the market. So it should do well in early 2013 (relatively) and do at least 3.5 mill, putting it at 41.5. After that it's just silly to think it's going to drop like a rock.
@ BHR, under EMEAA HW, there is a drop down box to reveal each region, you're welcome ;-)
Because what the PS2 has done since 2005 is unheard of, if you think the 360 will continue to sell after MS introduce a new version, good luck to you.
really it needs what 4M from what i remember (i cant find the data in EMEAA weekly it doesnt break the regions down anymore) :-( and hasnt it been doing 1-1.5M there so i think theres a shot for it there aswell, as long as next box releases in 2014 instead of what many and myself included believe 2013 then i think its possible for both US and UK i feel that extra yr means everything
@ psrock, it's just a catchy title, no need for people to get uptight and defensive about it. If the 360 is going to sell well anywhere in its twilight years it's going to be US, you keep saying no it won't, but I don't see any reasoning?
@ psrock, DS has already beaten PS2 in the states to my knowledge, and Wii will too before 360, that doesn't mean 360 isn't overthrowing a king! PS2 will always be king of last gen ;-)
outsell maybe possible but the ps2 was here before xbox and the xbox 360 and will still out live both consoles,Sony> MS
and I meant U.S! @ Alba, of course we'll have a clearer picture as time goes on, this year and next year are the crucial years as to whether this will come true or not.
Sorry, lots of arguments against 360 beating PS2*
@ BHR, I don't reckon so, I think 360 will fall short in the UK now. I'm not bothered by the mean comments, they're from people that can't argue anything I've said and feel defensive so strike out, not really any need. There are lots of arguments against 360 beating PS2 in Americas, as the sales savvy people of the site could name.
Not impossible, but we'll know whether the chances are high or low only when we'll know the gap at the end of 2013 and how much XB360 will still sell by then.
aha......desperate...long live the PS2
yeah i liked the article too change of things in terms of articles on here i like more sales related articles, but some of the comments are mean :-(
BHR there's nothing wrong with the article, but the xbox 360 won't dethrone the PS2 as the Wii will do it first anyway.
i dont mean better as in quality or knowledge but as in less negative comments towards you, arent there situations for the 360 to be king in UK or other parts of the world?
@BHR, being in the US doesnt give anyone any extra knowledge on this site except anecdotal evidence which is worthless. The title is fine, complimentary of both systems. The point of an analysis is to look at something that's likely to happen, what would be the point in doing 360 VS WW? No point, cos it's never going to happen, please next time you make silly comments like that think about it. Also I'm not saying DS or Wii won't say more, I've not stated once 360 will become top dog, just that it can overtake the PS2. If any of you actualy read the article you would see it's by far 'impossible'
It will most likely happen. The 360 is sitting at abou 27 million sold in the US right now. It will most likely hit the mid 30 million range by end of 2011. It should surpass the PS2 in overall sales for America sometime in 2013.
Yes the 360 will surpass PS2 sales in the US. Why? - online is the difference between them and will prove the decisive factor. Oh, and the fact that Americans are generally quite stupid! How on earth does the 360 continue to outsell PS3 when PS3 is actually better priced in US, compared with Europe?
No, and you've done before.
Yeah seriously. It's only a matter of time. Once information and resources hit more countries, gaming will become more popular world wide. Not to mention that in the US when all the older people who don't play games die out, the younger ones who do will raise their kids to play games. It's just going to spread more and more like a disease (though it's anything but). And PS2 will eventually be outsold. When? I don't know. By what? I don't know. But it'll happen.
Really?? Just in the US? Do you feel better now that you are defending your console of choice in the US? What kind of question is that? And the title is misleading...King of consoles WW for ever will be PS2! Will the 360 surpass that WW, not even close, as soon as the next Microsoft console comes out the 360 will be partially obsolete. So when you mention King, I'm assuming WW and not just here in the US where the American market take a lot of pride in their "home" console and because they like to get "ripped off", simple as that.
PS3 will outsell 360 in WW anyways so no point. Here's another example of a person who thinks America is the World ^
Worldwide no way, for merely the United States I think it's also extremely unlikely.
"Can the Underdog Overthrow the King?", really? I don't mind anything in gamrFeed, but could the strictly analytical articles for VGC not have "rabid fan" stamped on their title?
hmm, it would be interesting to see what happens -- it really all depends on if Microsofts next console launches in 2013 or 2014, the later the more likely it will outsell the PS2 in the US. Given this article i wonder how PS3 would compare to PS2 in Europe where PS2 has sold about 52million i believe.
I think maybe, but I see Wii beating both, and at $99 with Zelda, Mario, Pikmin, DQ, TLS and others, is more likely to be the 'legacy' console
hm, maybe, maybe not. PS2 is over 150m so i don't know.
no, wii will remain on top
@ jkudlac, 360 is Up YoY in the US by 350k so far.
@ Naraku, no home console this gen will top the PS2 lifetime sales, so no it isn't a 'given they'll sell more'
What a ridiculous article. I can see the Xbox360 eventually outselling PS2, but it's entirely irrelevant; as video games have become more mainstream over time, it's a given that consoles will sell more. Don't waste our time.
First off great article. I must say I don't think this will happen. XBOX 360 had an awesome year only cause of Kinect and now it's sales are actually trailing last years, without price cut to $150 for base model and some great exclusives sales will drop even more. There is no way Microsoft will wait until 2013 to give us next console, I think we will see all 3 come out in 2012.
With the Wii declining so much, something we all didn't really expect...well who knows what will happen. We might see a huge downfall for the 360 also, then again it will continue its stronghold. Time will tell. Weird generation given the 360 has a chance beating the PS2, who would of thunk?.
jbolland, a system sold is a system sold, you could say the same for the amount of PS2 slims bought in replacement of phats, and the disk drive errors.
It sucks that there is no way to show the people who had to repurchase their XBox's when the slim one came out because of the RRoD. Think taking that number out of there would increase the gap dramatically.
@ cromeros, your reasons are exactly why I didn't do a Wii VS PS2 article, because it's very likely to happen, what's the point in analyising something likely to happen? Also, you're wrong, 360 is up 350k YoY so far this year, PS3 is also up.
sony fans are not happy jan!
19.2 million is still a huge number to make up. I don't see it happening, but I can't say it is impossible. Improbable, but not impossible.
PS2 Vs. XBox 360?????... Why not Wii Vs PS2?... Wii in U.S. is the leader... First, without improvements or upgrades, lack of new hits and only now with a price cut ... Until last year, Wii was the fastest selling home console in the history of gaming in the U.S. ... Honestly, the comparison is laughable ... It is a fact that XBox360 surpassed PS3... While XBox360 is beating Wii this year in the U.S., the difference between the two is not abysmal ... And whatever they say, all consoles are selling less than what was achieved last year ... Despite the existence of Kinect and PS Move ... Do not kill the King before time ...
@ hatmoza, no he didn't. I've used NPD data as our Americas data doesn't break down. NPD hasn't undertracked PS2, so all the figures are correct.
@ Hatmoza, can't come up with a rebuttle? didn't think so ;-) @ NYANKS, read the first line of the article
The PS2 is massively undertracked on this website, even higher ups admit it. I'm assuming that makes these numbers irrelevant as PS2's are much higher.
19mil to go with this gen cycle nearly ending? hmmmm I don't know about that.......
Tridrakious, what don't you agree with?
Wow, this was actually made into an "article" on this site. Amazing.
@ seece Well, even if my 30 mil WW is reached, and your calculations are correct, then it still won't cross the PS2. It also will probably have to sell ~ 21 mil from this point to outsell what the PS2 settles at when its discontinued. Of course, it is still impressive that the 360 will come that close to the PS2's US sales.
well vgc has ps2 undertracked, they even admit that. so i dont know what the real number is, but its higher than that. also the ps2 is still selling. and xbox sales will be going down soon, maybe even this year. So i say no chance
nup
@Thismeintiel That's probably the biggest thing going against the 360 longterm. MS simply don't have the first party resources to support multiple machines that Sony and Nintendo do. Probably why they never came out with a real handheld. Seece, you make some very good points. There's a chance it might happen but it really comes down to how long MS supports the console.
@ thismeintiel. 360 sales up until now are 50% based in the U.S, but as the years have progressed it's gaining more and more % in the US, take last year, it sold 7/13 mill in the US. Another 20 mill WW is very flawed when they're going to sell another 10 this year at least, 30 is a good figure, 17/18 of that will be U.S, that takes 360 to 45 mill, 1 mill behind PS2. Also PS2 may still be selling, but at 30k a month it's not going to make any ground 360 can't catch at that rate.
This are article is almost pointless. The only reason I post is to say thelastsoldier your avatar is awesome!
@ wonktonodi Definitely agree. The 360 may only sell around 20-30 million WW. Definitely won't sell 20 mil more in just the US. Plus, the PS2 will be selling for at least one more fiscal year, so that will make the gap close that much slower.
I don't see the 360 selling another 20 million.
