Revisiting Vgchartz Predictions for Hardware Sales Worldwide in Nov & - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 04 January 2009 / 8,623 Views
Jacob Mazel
In November, Vgchartz predicted hardware sales for the six gaming platforms for November 2 to December 27 . That data is now available on the site. The article from November anticipated that the Americas market would see over 15 million units of hardware sold in the eight week period. An even larger volume of hardware was expected to be sold in the Others region – over 18 million units. Japan in contrast was forecast to see nearly 3 million units of hardware sold. Worldwide, over 37 million units of hardware were forecast to be sold. Read on to see how close the predictions were to reality.
Below is the breakdown of the November 2 to December 27 prediction issued in November.
|
Proj. |
DS |
Wii |
PS3 |
360 |
PSP |
PS2 |
TotM |
|
Ams |
4,542,237 |
3,938,903 |
1,711,005 |
2,323,764 |
1,628,975 |
1,128,233 |
15.27 |
|
Oth |
6,771,538 |
4,483,703 |
2,621,095 |
2,064,751 |
1,366,711 |
1,631,386 |
18.94 |
|
Ja |
855,566 |
690,688 |
245,474 |
101,472 |
859,027 |
79,406 |
2.83 |
|
Tot |
12,169,340 |
9,113,293 |
4,577,574 |
4,489,987 |
3,854,713 |
2,839,025 |
37.04 |
Vgchartz hardware data for November 2 to December 27 breaks down similarly in most cases.
|
Act |
DS |
Wii |
PS3 |
360 |
PSP |
PS2 |
Tot M |
|
Ams |
4,797,763 |
5,173,272 |
1,180,370 |
2,559,275 |
1,393,738 |
756,890 |
15.86 |
|
Oth |
5,808,408 |
3,989,325 |
1,333,853 |
2,209,338 |
1,256,972 |
963,407 |
15.56 |
|
Ja |
1,307,579 |
589,945 |
245,754 |
94,829 |
602,806 |
59,872 |
2.90 |
|
Tot |
11,913,750 |
9,752,542 |
2,759,977 |
4,863,442 |
3,253,516 |
1,780,169 |
34.32 |
The top predictions (Projection for platform & region divided by actual data for platform and region) are in blue when within 10%, and in green when within 20%.
|
Pro/Act |
DS |
Wii |
PS3 |
X360 |
PSP |
PS2 |
Tot |
|
Ams |
0.95 |
0.76 |
1.45 |
0.91 |
1.17 |
1.49 |
0.96 |
|
Others |
1.17 |
1.12 |
1.97 |
0.93 |
1.09 |
1.69 |
1.22 |
|
Japan |
0.65 |
1.17 |
1.00 |
1.07 |
1.43 |
1.33 |
0.98 |
|
World |
1.02 |
0.93 |
1.66 |
0.92 |
1.18 |
1.59 |
1.08 |
A direct comparison of the projection against the actual data can be seen below.
Out of all hardware sold in the period, the breakdown clearly favored Nintendo platforms. Wii and DS accounted for roughly two out of every three videogame systems sold worldwide in the eight week period ending December 27, 2008.
The main misses of the predictions come down to three trend changes.
- One is the DS vs. PSP battle in Japan. At the time of the prediction, only one week of DSi data had been available. But at the time I had written “the DSi vs. PSP-3000 situation in Japan instinctively feels a bit off, but until final data for DSi and PSP 3000 comes in for Japan this week, it’s hard to argue with it since there isn’t really enough data either way”.
- The second situation is supply space. Nintendo had about 1.25m more Wiis for the Americas than anticipated. This extra supply of Wiis had two major effects – Wii sales in Others were slightly lower than predicted, and the space allocated for extra Wii supply appears to have effectively squeezed out a lot of PS2 content in stores selling videogames. As a result, the PS2 projections were nearly universally high. In Japan, where the allocations for videogame content in stores remain roughly the same as in 2007, PS2 came in much closer to the predicted amount.
- The third major difference is the PS3. Sony sold only two thirds of the PS3 volume predicted for the Americas, and half the volume in Others. In the Americas the greater availability of Wii and the $200 Xbox 360 price point (half the price of PS3, with a wide variety of content available on both systems) account for the difference. In the Others region, despite stronger Blu Ray adoption and price tolerance, the availability of a much cheaper price point for the Xbox 360 appears to have severely eroded a lot of Sony’s strength. Price cuts for PS3 in 2009, if they happen, will likely determine whether Microsoft’s gains have been artificial and temporary or sturdy and long lasting.
Overall though, 17 of the 28 predictions for the holiday season were within 20%. Vgchartz will have a review of videogame sales trends for 2008 as well in the near future.
Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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ps3 needs that pricecut badly.. what I love about m$ is how uniformly they have priced the 360 worldwide.. the 199/299/399 pattern is followed so well everywhere.. wheres an 80gb ps3 will set up back around $550-600 in most countries.
It is not about total sales, it is about turnover. What are the figures for that?
Sony got pwned in all areas. Ouch. I'm starting to reconsider whether I actually want to buy a PS3 now. How will support look when I can finally afford one?
some of the projections were very close to actual sales. Being so far off on Sony is understandable as who really thought the 360-ps3 gap would be so large?
@MINAS
that future-proof your talking about is just Sony spinning people head with their lies. They are just like the other guys, releasing consoles every 5 years. Tell me the countless PS1 and PS2 that were broken, defects etc... that's future-proof? So they keep that console a float for extra years because they want to keep the profit rolling in because their newer console will be in the red for a while. That's pretty much the reason why. MS didn't do it because let's face it, they have the finance and it was their first try. Nintendo well I think Nintendo might have the longest track record to take care of their systems.
PS3 value? They added a Blu-Ray player so they can push BR sales, I don't see value but a business model that they keep telling people the PS3 isn't a gaming machine ( odd how they say that but then they keep it alive for profit).
Sony did good last 2 Generations but they didn't have any real competition, now things are different. The Wii has the casual market they had, and X360 is eating into the core gamers. How do you want the PS3 to handle this?This is the business ROUND 3 and the FIGHT IS ON! lol
Oh Sony can forget Japan, there I said it. Ninty own there hehe
Cheaper stand alone blu-ray players have eaten into some of the PS3 sales, and perceived value.
Sony had a 72% of the market on the past generation, actually only get a 17% with PS3 + PSP, it doesn´t have the neccesary for catch the numbers of any Nintendo system. Nintendo have a enormous 59%, and increasing.
MINAS: ¿hat future have a system nobody broughts? The same than Dreamcast, great console, but a big failure.
The only thing that needs to go back is your 360 to MS to replace your red-ringed model!
What sales proof? Ps3 selling a lot faster than 360 in its 2nd year in life!
What sales proof? The value of the console? Ps3 has by far the more future-proof Hardware...Remember ps2 lifespan?Sony is about to keep the same strategy with ps3...A console with 20 mil in 2 years is a failure? what an idiot!
PS3 selling under 3 million in the 2 main months for videogame sales is nothing short of pathetic. There were 2 big 1st party games released and tons of quality 3rd party software. Without a pricecut PS3 will sell well below 10 million in 2009.
@cmoney
It's not over 'til the fat lady sings.
Maxwell, the PS3 started having trouble as soon as you bought one. I hope you're thinking about returning it to the store! :-)
wow Sony needs to drop PS3s price already.
Wow all the projections were pretty spot on though I'm sure Wii was lower cause Nintendo stated a 2.4 million a month production rate then said... oh well a few more for the holidays right in the middle of Nov I believe it was.
The only ones not making it close to the projection was Sony, it's kinda sad I was expecting a lot more myself... :(
sony is pretty much done. they don't have a future in gaming at this rate
Sony got smoked this holiday.
VGC thougt a PS3 price drop befor Xmas. will be in March.
PS3 (except Japan) and PS2 projections were out to lunch... But, the 360 price drop and the slow performing Sony software lineup probably played a large role in that.
It's funny that we're so close on PS3 in Japan but far away on Others and US.
Interesting comparison, WAY over on PS3, but otherwise pretty good. Many people underestimated how much MS's price cut would effect sales during the holiday's....tisk, tisk. Nintendo brand is sick!
@snake i only see a price drop then if they turn a profit before it.... I think a better solution would be to wait until after the MS pricedrop model shuffle this year so they can stunt the MS surge, this should also provide a better holiday boost and give them more time to reduce costs, and hope the yen falls/ dollar gains strenght
So here are the new total numbers for systems sold (give or take a thousand or so).
Wii 46.00M
X360 27.61M
PS3 17.55M
I think 360 long amazing weekly sales will decrease during the time the ps3 price is drop. I predict that the PS3 will be dropped by the first week of April. The fiscal year ends sometime around that week.
Niceeee
what are people bying 3.2m psp's for? apart from in japan i dont think i have ever seen a psp game in the top 10?
VGC prediction for JP PS3 was spot on.
Ouch thats terrible for the PS3 and somewhat PSP. Everything else was pretty close, though.
@Lale
Actually I think the predictions were fair when they were made. Sales of the PS3 seem to have slowed down from last year if I'm not mistaken. Makes you wonder if next year will be slower.
Underestimated all Non Sony consoles (apart from DS, just about) and overestimated all Sony products ....
so was 2m out on predicted PS3 sales? ouch!
Whoever made these predictions must have a big respect for Sony.
PS2 and PS3 quite a bit lower than projected, other than that great predictions!
Nice analysis, shocking to see how poorly the PS3 did in comparison to projections, now all we need is year on year one!
