September 2011 Shipment Update for Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 03 November 2011 / 7,266 Views
The latest figures from the big three have arrived via their September quarter financial reports. As with the data through June 2011, the video game industry remains in something of a low point as 3DS and future machines have yet to revive the industry. For the quarter, Sony shipped 3.7m PS3s, 1.7m PSPs, and 1.2m PS2s, Nintendo shipped 2.35m 3DS systems, 1.79m Wiis, and 1.14m DS systems. Microsoft also shipped 2.3m X360s.
From October 2010 to September 2011, hardware shipments for the big three were at the following levels. Lifetime figures follow after the slash.
Wii - 13.46m / 89.36m
DS - 13.42m / 149.00m
3DS -6.67m / 6.67m
PS3 -13.90m / 55.50m
PSP -8.80m / 73.00m
PS2 - 5.90m / 153.50m
X360 - 13.0m / 57.60m
That comes to a total of 75.15m units of hardware shipped in the past year, down from 75.94m in the year to June 2011, and down from 100.8m in the year ending March 2009. Notably, since mid-2010, Wii, X360 and PS3 have each split the hardware market pretty evenly, with each system between 13-14m over the past year. All three systems are also off their peak 12-month figures, as PS3 shipments came to 14.6m in the year to September 2010, Wii shipments were 25.94m in the year to March 2009, and X360 shipments were 13.7m in the year to June 2011. Compared to the year to September 2010, Wii + X360 + PS3 hardware shipments are down 5.1m in the year to September 2011.
As of this quarter, the combined shipments of Wii, X360, and PS3 have finally overtaken the combined total for PS2, Xbox, and GC. Combined current era console shipments stand at 202.5m, PS2 era consoles stand at about 200m. Even with DC included in the PS2 era, the current generation of consoles will pass the PS2 era in the next quarter. More importantly, hardware shipments still are growing pretty nicely for current generation machines. It's pretty clear that at a bare minimum another 60m Wiis, X360s, and PS3s will be sold worldwide, which will mark at least 30% growth from the PS2 era.
The three consoles as well as the DS and PSP each have historically large bases now as well.
More generally, PSP serves as an interesting barometer for how high Wii, PS3, and X360 hardware shipments will get lifetime.
Through 20 quarters, Wii was 33m ahead of PSP, 89m vs. 56m. PS3 and PSP were essentially at a dead heat, 55m vs. 56m. PSP looks like it will get to 80-85m lifetime. Given the device sold 56m in the time Wii has sold 89m, with Wii still performing at or above PSP globally, it's fair to say Wii will sell at least another 17m units, with 20m-30m more units likely given how PSP has performed after 56m / 20 quarters, for a grand total somewhere between PS1 (102.5m) and PS2 (160m when it finally stops selling). PS3 has been remarkably close to PSP its entire time on the market, and could easily end up at 85m or so, as PSP will. X360 is still tracking below PSP, but is within 7m units of it again through 24 quarters and may shave that down even further in the coming months to also end up right around 80m lifetime.
On a software basis, the video game industry is also performing weakly, at least by retail shipments.
Quarter Oct 2010 - Sept 2011 LTD SW
PS3 37.10m 151.00m 501.60m
Wii 23.05m 142.54m 752.58m
DS 16.86m 95.14m 868.47m
PSP 8.10m 41.10m 312.3m
3DS 3.60m 17.56m 17.56m
PS2 2.80m 11.70m 1533.5m
X360 Microsoft doesn't provide software shipment figures
Software shipments for Nintendo and Sony platforms over the past year total 459.04m - a pretty low figure given 75m units of hardware were shipped in the past year, and a base of hundreds of millions of consoles and portables still exists in homes globally. In the year to March 2011, software shipments were 512m for Nintendo and Sony platforms, and in the year to March 2009 the figure was 640m. Even with Microsoft included, there has likely been a pretty steep 150m fall from the peak of the software cycle in 2008-2009 to the current point.
With X360 estimated, the largest platforms by software shipments are as follows through September 2011:
DS is currently the largest still actively growing software market, although Wii software remains well ahead of the DS pace for software and PS3 is not too far behind it. Wii continues to look like a billion-unit software market eventually based on how it is tracking relative to DS, which is now rapidly slowing down.
Based on Nintendo's and Sony's projections, Wii and PS3 should both gain a bit on the DS software pace in the next quarter, as each console looks set for about a 60-65m software quarter, while DS only had a 50m software quarter in 2009 (the comparable point in its lifecycle) with the collapse of its European software market to piracy.
By the end of 2011, DS should be nearly a 900m software market, with Wii over 800m and PS3 over 550m. Whether DS can reach 1b units of software is an interesting question, as it looks like the DS may struggle to reach more than 160m units globally (~152.5m ltd for March 2012 is the current forecast, 6m in the year to March 2012), and it's a bit hard to imagine DS topping 950m or 1b units of software with less than 165m systems shipped. Wii on the other hand probably just needs about 115m systems shipped to reach 1b units of software, which looks doable. PS3 still looks like a 750m-800m software market lifetime which is basically half of the PS2 market to date.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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PS2 outshipped the DS. Damn.
PS2 - 5.90m / 153.50m
proud of you SOny in PS2 console...
You're proud of a company?
One thing you need to consider on your lifetime HW estimations. Judging Wii/PS3/360 numbers off of PSP drop offs is silly, for Wii.
The reasons the PSP tail has been as long as it has is because of continued Japan support and Sony expanding it into new markets. The Wii will have neither of these. The SW releasing on Wii next Year (nevermind 2013) will be non-existant, aside from Dragon Quest, and just looking how they're killing off the DS to push 3DS tells us they're gonna do similar things with WiiU.
In short, I think you're massively overestimating the Wii lifetime numbers. 105-110 is possible. 110-120 is a long shot. 120-125 will be next to impossible... 130+? No chance.
PS360 will be over 70m sold by the end of next yr pending on MS/Sony forcast it could be more. with PS3 seeming to pick up some steam in the Americas and dominating the rest of the market we could see PS3 closer to 80m as is the same with 360 as it continues to do the impossible in the Americas.
PS3 just might peak at 15m ww 2011 yr. end and maybe close to 16m by there fiscal yr ending March giving them 63m units ww for the 2011 fiscal yr. needing only 7m through the rest of the yr. to hit 70m which PS3 is likely to sell pending on Sonys forecast for the 2012 yr. 73 to 75m yr. end. thats 10 to 15m for the yr if my high end predictions are correct for 2011.
as far as 360 my personal opinion if my high end prediction for 2011 is correct then MS will also see 75m units sold ww by 2012 yr. end.
if history repeats its self then PS3 will sell 7m ww before the holiday season. 2012 looks to be the final battle for the original HD twins. the rest other then Vita and the 3ds will be a write off.
PS2 153m? still number one!
"With X360 estimated, the largest platforms by software shipments are as follows through September 2011: X360:~560M PS3:501.6M"
Week Ending 01st Oct 2011-SW(sold)
PS3-422,727,144
X360-514,296,109
Good article!
Thank you for this, it was pretty.
So many awesome graphs and tables!
wow.. Nintendo owned this generation! They will own next gen also then Sony will take back top spot for 2 generations then back to Nintendo. that's how it has goes.
opps i miscounted. sells 2012 yr end pending my high predictions come true and MS Sony fiscal yr. end forecast will be PS3 78m which is rather shocking and doubtful and 360 will be 75-78m which is still rather shocking.
i don't think i could honestly post that as a prediction, but my mid-low predictions puts both about 75m yr. end 2012.
also if PS3 can sell what users say 360 needs to sell to win 2011 then the current 2.6m gap will be 1.4m by 2011 yr's end but that will take allot of doing, and i don't see it happening as i'm sure many of you don't.
Can also make the case that 2012 is still a decent year for Wii globally - $100 price point for Christmas, Mario Party 9, Rhythm Heaven (West), Dragon Quest X (global?), Just Dance 4, Zumba, sw from 2011 still pushing hw early on, and then the odd sequels / regional migrations like Epic Mickey 2, Zumba Fitness / Rayman / Black Eyed Peas to Japan, Inazuma Eleven / Last Story / Xenoblade to the West.
I don't think PS3 / X360 are to be as long lived as people expect. There have been rumors for months of PS4 / X720 at E3 2012 now. PS3 has been flat at 13-15m for three fiscal years now - that's with the Slim and $150 in price drops. Software purchasing rates are slowing fairly quickly for PS3 to levels that require a new console. Once a system sees its users buy two games in the trailing year, the software market will decline quickly. PS3 will be there in six months, which is why PS4 is likely by the end of 2013, a year after Wii U. PS2 sw purchasing rates reached roughly two in roughly mid-2005 and PS3 followed 18 months later as PS2 sw rapidly declined.
Xbox360 57.6 million and PS3 55.5 million?
The PS3 is at 55.0 million, right?
PS3 will get past 100m in 4 years, it will get another huge boost with 50$ price cut next year. By March 2013 PS3 will be around 80m shipped, in short 100m is on the cards. Not sure if it can ship 1 billion software.
in its first 5 years the ps3 shipped 55.5mil You are expecting it to ship 44.5mil in the next 4 years???
My guess : 360+PS3 HW = 160M = PS2 sales, SW : 750+750 = 1500M = PS2
In fact 360 and PS3 have shared the PS2 market in half.
I would give the PS3 a 5M lead in HW and the 360 the lead in SW as Americans favor the 360 and they buy far more games than the average European or Japanese gamer.
I think they shared 70% PS2 market, 100% xbox market and 25% cube market
Bundling the Wii with the PS3 and the XBox360 gives the idea that this gen is dying which is the one you want to push forward. However if you analyze the platforms separately the results are totally different. The facts are that the Wii sales for HW and SW are falling rapidly while most likely the PS3 and the 360 will have record fiscal years for hardware and software.
it's normal for Wii to drop fast, since WiiU has been annoucned, there's minimal support for Wii, and it's been some years since the last 10m/20m seller fo the Wii
on the other hand, MS and Sony have not announced new consoles, so sales definitely do not drop, now the reason they are higher this year is weird, maybe lot of software?
Wii should top PS1 next year after finished around 95.5M by end of this year.
That must have hurt some people.
