VGChartz Fall Software Sales Preview Part I: Americas
by Jacob Mazel, posted on 19 August 2010 / 1,947 Views
Every August and September, Brett and I begin extensively talking about what trends are set to emerge over the all important capitalist orgy that is November-December. This year, there is so much content arriving in the fall that we discussed September and October as well. Here is our first conversation, largely unedited from AIM, where we discuss how major software for Wii, PS3, X360, DS and PSP should perform in the Americas from September to December. Brett also gives his thoughts on Kinect, Move and specific figures for how he expects major titles to perform. In the coming days I'll put up our conversations about EMEAA (Others) and Japanese software as well.
Expectations for Fall Software Part I: Major Americas Software
September 2010 Outlook:
thesource (8:41:51 PM): So here are the big games / events of Sept: Move, Halo Reach, Layton, Kingdom Hearts PSP, New Carnival Games, My Sims Sky Heroes and Guitar Hero.
thesource (8:42:17 PM): How big do you have the opening for Halo: Reach to start?
ioi (8:43:41 PM): Around 3m for Halo Reach.
ioi (8:44:12 PM): Week one.
ioi (8:44:23 PM): I can see it tracking about double the pace of ODST.
ioi (8:44:46 PM): So 3.2m week 1, 650k week 2, 250k week 3 etc.
thesource (8:45:33 PM): Definitely a big launch. Won't push much hw though.
ioi (8:45:57 PM): Halo will push SOME hardware.
ioi (8:46:13 PM): Probably add 100k+ for the month to hardware.
ioi (8:46:25 PM): You can't launch with 3m units and not push some hardware.
ioi (8:46:42 PM): Especially with bundles, new model 360 etc.
ioi (8:48:50 PM): Obviously my Halo figures were for the Americas only.
ioi (8:50:02 PM): For September?
thesource (8:50:07 PM): Yeah. What else do you think will be big?
thesource (8:50:25 PM): My Sims Sky Heroes / Guitar Hero are on a ton of platforms.
ioi (8:50:47 PM): KH: BBS will have a good week one.
ioi (8:51:01 PM): 200k ish.
ioi (8:51:37 PM): Guitar Hero will be down about 10-20% on last year.
ioi (8:51:40 PM): But still solid.
thesource (8:52:28 PM): Madden and Metroid should drop off rather quickly in the wake of Halo in September.
ioi (8:52:40 PM): Madden will follow normal pattern.
ioi (8:52:52 PM): Metroid will start 200k+ but drop fast.
ioi (8:52:59 PM): Dead Rising 2 will be pretty big.
thesource (8:53:23 PM): Still have trouble seeing Capcom meet its 3m goal worldwide.
thesource (8:54:39 PM): how about move?
ioi (8:55:08 PM): I have 300k+ launch for Dead Rising 2 across PS3 and 360.
ioi (8:55:13 PM): Move is looking weak.
ioi (8:55:55 PM): Sports Champions may do 40-50k in September, Move itself might do 75k-100k units of the main controller / camera.
thesource (8:56:20 PM): Isn't sports champions bundled?
ioi (8:56:29 PM): Kinect on the other hand should do 300-400k week one
ioi (8:56:36 PM): It is bundled yeah.
ioi (8:56:45 PM): http://www.gamestop.com/Catalog/ProductDetails.aspx?Product_ID=78137
ioi (8:57:01 PM): Sports champions + camera + main controller.
ioi (8:57:27 PM): Could attach more than 50% actually, I imagine most will go for the bundle.
thesource (8:57:31 PM): But i thought you could only get Sports Champions in the bundle. Is it more like Wii Sports Resort where it’s separate and bundled?
ioi (8:57:53 PM): You can buy both Sports Champions and the Move stuff separately.
ioi (8:58:04 PM): But yeah most will be buying the bundle.
ioi (8:58:16 PM): Maybe 75k for Sports Champions, 100k for Move in total.
ioi (8:58:36 PM): But like I say, 300-400k+ for Kinect week one.
ioi (8:58:52 PM): Going to do a proper article on pre-orders next week though.
thesource (9:00:53 PM): Lets go to October before we get to Kinect and the rest of November in detail.
ioi (9:01:34 PM): So I'm thinking 350-400k for Guitar Hero week one across all platforms.
thesource (9:02:07 PM): Not what it was but still decent.
ioi (9:02:13 PM): Yup
October 2010 Outlook:
ioi (9:04:14 PM): October - Wii Party, NBA Games, CastleVania, Medal of Honor, Just Dance 2, DJ Hero 2, Fallout: NV, Fable III, Rock Band 3, Sims 3, Force Unleashed 2, and WWE.
ioi (9:04:20 PM): Pretty huge month.
ioi (9:04:42 PM): Rock Band, WWE similar to last year.
thesource (9:04:45 PM): Kirby on Wii too.
ioi (9:04:53 PM): NBA Games too, pretty flat.
thesource (9:05:20 PM): Are you including NBA Jam with "NBA games"? Or do you have it separate from the seasonal games?
ioi (9:05:36 PM): Fable III 800-900k.
ioi (9:05:44 PM): Well I was meaning the seasonal ones.
ioi (9:06:10 PM): NBA Jam should do ok, 100k week one a million at some point in the new year.
ioi (9:06:14 PM): Solid holidays.
ioi (9:07:08 PM): Fallout: NV will be big - close to 1m week one.
ioi (9:07:17 PM): Over both consoles.
ioi (9:07:57 PM): Wii Party will be a slow burn, but could do 500k in October, 1.2m in Nov and another 1.5m in Dec for 3m+ by year end.
ioi (9:08:18 PM): Force Unleashed 2 - 600k week 1.
ioi (9:08:42 PM): Medal of Honor - 1.2m.
ioi (9:08:51 PM): Week 1 again.
ioi (9:09:20 PM): Probably close to 2m over the month.
ioi (9:09:27 PM): So should easily be the biggest game.
ioi (9:09:51 PM): 1.4m for Fallout over the month, 900k for Fable.
ioi (9:10:34 PM): Sims 3 - I'm thinking about 400k.
thesource (9:11:11 PM): Seems kind of low given its on everything.
ioi (9:11:35 PM): Rock Band 3 - 650k in week 1 / for the month.
ioi (9:11:51 PM): Well it a 18 month old port.
ioi (9:12:09 PM): Sims 2 didn't do huge numbers on consoles
thesource (9:13:02 PM): DJ Hero 2?
ioi (9:14:27 PM): 200k week 1.
thesource (9:15:02 PM): Kirby Wii?
ioi (9:15:14 PM): 200-300k in October.
ioi (9:15:19 PM): 1m by the end of Dec
thesource (9:15:43 PM): Little Big Planet 2?
ioi (9:15:53 PM): Similar to LBP 1.
ioi (9:15:57 PM): A bit higher.
ioi (9:15:59 PM): More frontloaded.
thesource (9:16:08 PM): EA MMA?
ioi (9:16:16 PM): Not sure on that one.
ioi (9:16:20 PM): 200k week 1?
thesource (9:16:45 PM): There’s some decent DS stuff as well. FF: The 4 Heroes of Light.
ioi (9:16:55 PM): By the way, when is Thanksgiving this year?
thesource (9:17:33 PM): Nov 25 is Thanksgiving, so Black Friday is Nov 26. Also, Art Academy for DS in October.
thesource (9:18:42 PM): What do you have for the two DS games before we go to Nov in the Americas?
thesource (9:19:13 PM): Art Academy has been pretty leggy in Japan.
ioi (9:19:16 PM): Which two?
ioi (9:19:28 PM): Art Academy will start slow but 500k by end of Dec.
thesource (9:19:35 PM): Art Academy and Final Fantasy: The 4 Heroes of Light are Oct for DS.
thesource (9:19:47 PM): Or whatever the DS game is called.
ioi (9:20:38 PM): FF will do ok.
ioi (9:20:46 PM): 300k by year end or something.
thesource (9:21:08 PM): Actually, Super Scribblenauts is October as well.
thesource (9:21:25 PM): Probably will do worse than the first one though.
ioi (9:22:36 PM): Yeah.
ioi (9:22:41 PM): Down 20%.
thesource (9:23:11 PM): Ok last two October games.
thesource (9:23:19 PM): Just Dance 2 and Def Jam Rapstar.
ioi (9:23:42 PM): JD will do ok, similar to first over Christmas.
ioi (9:23:46 PM): Def Jam no idea.
ioi (9:23:55 PM): Similar to DJ Hero 2.
thesource (9:25:04 PM): Anything to add for Oct? To me it looks like there is a bunch of content to push everything. I guess Epic Mickey could land in Oct too but I think its Nov - they haven’t said yet.
November 2010 Outlook:
thesource (9:29:49 PM): Alright...well November it is. Here we go: Kinect, Donkey Kong Country Wii, Pokepark, Call of Duty, Gran Turismo, AC: Brotherhood, Your Shape Kinect, Tron, Dance Central, Michael Jackson, Goldeneye, PES, EA Sports Active 2, Need for Speed, and Sonic Colors.
ioi (9:30:06 PM): Kinect will be big.
ioi (9:30:13 PM): 300-400k launch.
ioi (9:30:30 PM): DK Country will be like 50% on NSMB Wii.
ioi (9:30:38 PM): Call of Duty huge.
ioi (9:30:46 PM): 3m opening week.
thesource (9:30:58 PM): That’s down a lot from last year though.
ioi (9:31:03 PM): This must be the best holidays ever.
ioi (9:31:06 PM): Yeah down from 5m.
ioi (9:31:10 PM): But still massive!
thesource (9:31:25 PM): Best holidays ever? For who? The industry?
ioi (9:31:30 PM): Yup
ioi (9:31:40 PM): $$
ioi (9:31:52 PM): it's like the last two years combined.
ioi (9:32:10 PM): Halo, Fable, Fallout, CoD, MoH, DKC, Wii Party.
ioi (9:32:19 PM): Not to mention the normal yearly updates.
ioi (9:32:32 PM): Goldeneye, GT5.
thesource (9:32:37 PM): It is likely offset to some degree by the DS / PSP / PS2 declines. How about the racing games - Need for Speed and Gran Turismo?
ioi (9:32:41 PM): Kinect.
thesource (9:34:13 PM): Maybe its just me but in the USA I feel like Need for Speed / DKC / Kinect / Move are kind of set to outshine Gran Turismo in November.
ioi (9:34:25 PM): Yeah.
thesource (9:34:58 PM): Do you expect GT5 to end up near the PS2 versions or well below?
ioi (9:35:10 PM): Well below.
ioi (9:35:14 PM): In America.
thesource (9:35:15 PM): My gut says near the PS2 games in Europe but a lot less here.
ioi (9:35:21 PM): Probably not far in Europe.
ioi (9:35:23 PM): Exactly.
thesource (9:35:29 PM): Not sure about Japan yet.
thesource (9:35:56 PM): What kind of penetration do you see Dance Central having in November?
ioi (9:37:28 PM): Slow burn.
thesource (9:38:01 PM): How about Goldeneye? I see it as a long term million seller worldwide.
ioi (9:38:09 PM): Hard to tell.
ioi (9:38:13 PM): Ok but not huge.
thesource (9:42:56 PM): Lets just finish Americas - Assassin's Creed Brotherhood? Sonic Colors? Pokepark?
ioi (9:43:14 PM): No idea on Sonic or Pokepark.
ioi (9:43:16 PM): 500k ish
ioi (9:43:24 PM): AC will be about 20-30% down.
thesource (9:43:45 PM): No 3DS in the Americas right?
ioi (9:43:50 PM): No
thesource (9:43:57 PM): I have it in Japan and possibly Europe but not Americas in 2010.
thesource (9:44:29 PM): Do we agree that for hw over Sept-Dec in the Americas its Wii > DS > X360 > PS3 > PSP > PS2 again?
thesource (9:45:34 PM): Move seems overpriced against Wii and overshadowed by Kinect. GT5 won't be as big as Halo or DKC in the Americas and PS3 is still the most expensive.
ioi (9:45:46 PM): Yeah I think so.
thesource (9:47:58 PM): X360 should be within 3m of Wii this year in the USA.
ioi (9:52:10 PM): Yeah.
ioi (9:52:48 PM): So for 2010 I have:
ioi (9:52:58 PM): Halo: Reach 6.2m
ioi (9:53:13 PM): Call of Duty: Black Ops 4.4m on 360, 2.4m on PS3
ioi (9:53:29 PM): Medal of Honor 2.2m on 360, 1.3m PS3
ioi (9:53:40 PM): Wii Party 3m
ioi (9:53:46 PM): DKC Returns 3m
ioi (9:54:01 PM): Fallout: New Vegas 1.4m 360, 800k PS3
ioi (9:54:07 PM): Fable III 3 1.7m
ioi (9:54:12 PM): Gran Turismo 5 2m
ioi (9:54:28 PM): Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood - 2m 360, 1.4m PS3
ioi (9:54:34 PM): Little Big Planet 2 - 1.5m
ioi (9:54:39 PM): Kinect 2.5m
ioi (9:54:50 PM): Move - 1m
ioi (9:57:43 PM): 1.6m / 900k for Force Unleashed 2
ioi (9:59:17 PM): Another 500k on Wii / DS / PSP
thesource (9:59:54 PM): These are all in the Americas right?
ioi (9:59:57 PM): Yup.
ioi (10:00:03 PM): Through Dec 31st.
That is all for now - we'll have assessments of EMEAA (Others) and Japan shortly. Overall, the Fall looks pretty incredible for top software. In addition to the new titles, big hits from earlier time frames like Madden, Metroid: Other M, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Red Dead Redemption, Halo 3: ODST, Resistance 2, Modern Warfare 2, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Mario Kart Wii, Mario Kart DS, New Super Mario Bros. DS, Just Dance, Wii Fit Plus, and GTAIV should revive a bit with hardware increases. The only question is whether all the big new titles will harm lesser games - if they don't software sales should be tremendous overall.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
