The Japan Top 20 Preview: 7/25 Edition
by Jacob Mazel, posted on 25 July 2010 / 2,378 Views
Summary & A Look Ahead:
Software sales dropped off rather dramatically in Japan this week. Not a single game topped 100,000 units - four titles did last week. Nintendo's Wii Party sold over 70,000 units for the week, taking the top spot for the July 25th week. Fate / Extra was the only other title to top 50,000 units for the week. Several major titles from last week dropped off rather quickly - notably Pro Yakyuu on PS3, Fire Emblem on DS, and Dragon Quest Monsters: Battle Road Victory on Wii. Each game should eventually get to 200,000 units in Japan but it will take at least another week.
The final week of July will see another major push for software. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2 for PSP has roughly 110,000 preorders ahead of its July 29 release. Sangoku Basara 3 has roughly 85,000 preorders for PS3 and 25,000 preorders for Wii, although on Wii, the game will have three versions, and we only have data for the top game. Debuts of at least 140,000 for Project Diva 2 and 40,000 / 110,000 for Sangoku Basara 3 are likely next week. Meanwhile, Capcom's Monster Hunter Portable 3 continues to slowly grow without a release date - the game has over 300,000 preorders now. Sony's newest PS3 model should also help push sales next week.
Nintendo, Sony and Capcom are all reporting their earnings for April-June 2010 on July 29 at about 3 AM ET. Once that data comes in, we may get some Japanese release dates for major titles like the Street Fighter / Tekken cross-over titles, Monster Hunter Portable 3, Kirby, and Donkey Kong Country Returns. Nintendo is fairly likely to break down the "30m DS and 3DS" split for the fiscal year as well, given that I and thousands of others have now experienced the 3DS and some of its games, by announcing release dates for 3DS and its games in Japan.
Understanding the Japanese Preview:
Rather than saying x game for y platform sold between 20,000 and 28,000 units as in the past, the preliminary data will be broken down into charts by platform. Within these charts, there will two additional categories besides the rounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the left will be ‘low end’ depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold for the week, while to the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highest amount the title likely sold for the week. As always, this data is preliminary, and therefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. The varying platform market share the sample represents is why consistent sellers like Wii Fit Plus do not always appear in the preliminary data. Sales for this report are for the week ending July 25, 2010.
Software by Platform:
Figures are listed by the age of the platform, for the top twenty sku information that we recieve early.
Wii Software - While Wii Party and Super Mario Galaxy 2 continue to fall rather gradually in Japan, Dragon Quest Monster: Battle Road Victory had a pretty steep drop and probably won't get much beyond 200k in Japan. Looking back though, Dragon Quest Swords had a bigger drop by both percentage and units. Word of mouth damaged Swords, but appears to be slowing down the Battle Road Victory drop-off trajectory. Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, and Mario Kart Wii should also be above 5,000 units for the week in the final data. Expect Wii hardware sales to remain in the 18,000 to 23,000 unit range for the week.
PS3 Software - White Knight Chronicles 2 had another stiff fall, and no longer looks like it will clear even 250,000 without a struggle. Konami's Pro Yakyuu game had a decent second week and should stabilize in a couple weeks at 5,000-10,000 per week for a little while as the baseball season wears on into the fall. Ken to Mahou had a high four digit opening, and will be out of the preliminary data next week. Winning Eleven 2010 should also be above 5,000 units for the week in the final data. Expect PS3 hardware sales to remain in the 18,000 to 23,000 unit range for the week.
X360 / PS2 Software - No games charted for either system. Expect X360 hardware sales to fall into the 3,500 to 5,500 range while PS2 hardware sales remain in the 1,000-2,000 range.
PSP Software - The PSP had another fairly quiet week. Fate / Extra sold over 50,000 units. Last Ranker and Pro Yakyuu had fairly typical drop offs, and will each respectable totals in Japan. Momotarou had a good hold in its second week but will struggle to reach even 50,000 in Japan which has to be dissapointing to Hudson. Monster Hunter Portable 2G and Winning Eleven should also be above 5,000 units on PSP in the final data. Expect PSP hardware sales to remain in the 24,000 to 28,000 unit range for the week. Harvest Moon and the latest Hitman Reborn both sold around 15,000 units, which is good news for the former and bad news for the latter.
DS Software - Fire Emblem, Inazuma Eleven 3, and Quiz! Hexagon 2 were the only DS games to top 20,000 units for the week. Inazuma Eleven 3 drop-offs are slowing each week, the game looks it could stabilize at 25,000-35,000 for a number of weeks even with sales already near 700,000 units to date. Taiko is showing good legs too - 200,000 units lifetime is not out of the question. Otherwise, it was a pretty quiet week for DS, with Fire Emblem dropping off quickly after a strong first week. Tamodachi Collection, Girl's Side Story, Love Plus +, and Art Academy (Eigokoro) should all top 5,000 units in the final data as well. Expect DS hardware sales to fall into the 40,000 to 46,000 unit range for the week.
Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
