Modern Warfare 2 Tops Halo 3: Can it Reach 30m on PS3/360? - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 27 June 2010 / 6,369 Views

The age of multiplatform hits continues to evolve - two of the five current platforms now have the same title - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, from Activision, as their top selling game. As of the week ending June 19, 2010 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 has ousted Halo 3 as the top selling game of all time on X360. Between X360, PS3 and PC the game has already topped 20 million units according to Activision. As quickly as Halo 3 sold on the X360, it was pretty clear that if a game was totop Halo, it would probably need a bigger debut on X360. The only game to top the Halo 3 debut on X360 so far is none other than Modern Warfare 2. Sure enough, Modern Warfare 2 had the biggest opening of all time, and has made Call of Duty the biggest HD franchise of this generation, dethroning contenders such as Halo and Grand Theft Auto. Despite launching less than a year ago, 1 out of every 4 X360 and PS3 owners have Activision's mega-hit worldwide. The chart below depicts the top opening weeks for software in the current generation (Wii, PS3, X360, DS, PSP) as compared to lifetime figures.

Game System WW Week One Americas LTD EMEAA LTD Japan LTD Worldwide LTD LTD / WK 1

COD: MW 2 X360 4.94m 7.47m 3.50m 0.08m 11.05m x2.23

Halo 3 X360 3.82m 7.96m 2.94m 0.13m 11.03m x2.89

Pokemon D/P DS 3.49m 6.56m 4.95m 5.99m 17.50m x5.01

GTA IV X36 3.38m 4.88m 2.86m 0.10m 7.84m x2.31

COD: MW2 PS3 3.25m 4.26m 3.58m 0.24m 8.08m x2.49

Pokemon HG/SS DS 2.96m 2.39m 3.80m 1.75m 7.94m x2.68

SSB: Brawl Wii 2.72m 5.23m 2.18m 2.10m 9.51m x3.50

FFXIII PS3 2.70m 1.05m 1.20m 1.85m 4.09m x1.51

GTA IV PS3 2.55m 2.88m 3.39m 0.32m 6.59m x2.58

Mario Kart Wii Wii 2.37m 9.28m 9.84m 2.76m 22.40m x9.45

Despite launching to almost 5 million units on X360, and over 3 million on PS3, and setting the all time record for a game launch, Modern Warfare 2 has also had much stronger legs than other major HD titles such as Halo 3 and Grand Theft Auto IV. Modern Warfare 2 has more than doubled its opening week on both X360 and PS3 in less than a year. Despite being on the market for almost five times as long, Halo 3 has a multiplier only about 25% better than Modern Warfare 2, which implies that Halo 3 will fall signigicantly behind Modern Warfare 2 on X360. Grand Theft Auto IV, which has been on the market over three times as long as Modern Warfare 2, has an LTD / first week ratio that is nearly the same as Modern Warfare 2 for both HD systems.

The best way to explain how monumental the legs for Modern Warfare 2 have been on X360 is simply to compare it to where Halo 3 was in seven months (using aligned regional launches). Microsoft's flagship title stood at 7.7 million units worldwide on X360 seven months into its life. In the same time frame, seven months, Modern Warfare 2 is at 11.05m units worldwide. What that means is that Halo 3 had just doubled (x2.02) its week one sales in seven months. Modern Warfare 2 in contrast stands at x2.23 week one sales through seven months. Thus Modern Warfare 2 could end up reaching something like x3.25 its week one sales on the X360 once it has been on the market as long as Halo 3, coming to about 16 million units. The reason is simply that Modern Warfare 2's rate of growth with seven months on the market is 10% faster than Halo 3's growth even though Modern Warfare 2 had a bigger debut. While that figure may sound staggering, the game has sold 19 million copies in less than 8 months for X360 and PS3 - and so the game has clearly been bigger than Halo for months already. On PS3, the week one to ltd growth is even greater, so the title might reach a Brawl like 3.5x times its opening across both systems, or about 28 million units lifetime on the HD systems. Again that sounds like a lot, but with year one (Nov 2009 to Oct 2010) set to be 22 million or so, even if the game fell to 3-4 million units in year two it simply would not be that hard to reach a multiplier of x3.5 lifetime, or about 28 million. To get to 28 million or so, Modern Warfare 2 will likely have to maintain an attach rate similar to what it has right now over the lifetime of the X360 and PS3. It won't be an easy task for Activision to maintain interest in the game when newer Call of Duty games release, but it is possible.

Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com

11 Comments

Kai Master (on 01 July 2010)

Halo 4 should beat MW2 on 360, but it is not on PS3 and maybe PC, so...
30M including PC sales seems the big maximum the game could sell IMO. 24M minimum.

ROBOTECHHEAVEN (on 30 June 2010)

most overhyped piece of crap game i have ever played, the game's single player is worthless and i strongly believe halo reach will break mw2 day 1 record for sure.

MARCUSDJACKSON (on 28 June 2010)

hints the 3 yr exclusive first o 360

oniyide (on 28 June 2010)

halo reach is not beating MW2, end of story. A 360 exclusive has to compete with a multiplat game??? no contest, maybe if MS wasnt stupid and had a PC version

c0rd (on 28 June 2010)

It's amazing how well this game has held up... early on I thought it was overtracked, so it wouldn't overtake Halo 3, at least until 2011.

Anyway, I don't think anything can top MW2 on X360 at this point, not to mention, MW2 on PS3 will be no easy task...

Squeakthedragon (on 28 June 2010)

Modern Warfare 2 represents the premiere entertainment phenomenon in core gaming of this generation. it's not even entirely about the quality of the game; MW2 is not bad, but for instance many CoD fans had to admit they ended up preferring MW1. But number 2 is the game on the crux of all hype and the go-to title for people wanting a new FPS right now.

Wandamaximoff (on 28 June 2010)

this doesnt suprise me really.

MW2 has so much press and with a new one popping up every year it raises the profile of the game.

Personlly i dont think Reach will be as big as MW2 as MW2 hit at the xbox's peak....

However i will be getting Reach Day one... im not SO keen on MW games they have no imagination

thismeintiel (on 28 June 2010)

@kain_kusanagi

If pre-orders are any indication, then no. In fact, for 4 straight weeks Halo Reach has fallen in pre-orders compared to the previous week.

TURbo (on 27 June 2010)

Looking at previous vgchartz North American preorder charts MW2 on 360 had 100,000+ more preorders than Halo Reach 13 weeks from release.

kain_kusanagi (on 27 June 2010)

Halo Reach is going to have an even bigger install base to launch to than Halo 3 did so I wonder if it will beat both Black Ops and MW2 in lifetime sales.