Modern Warfare 2 Tops Halo 3: Can it Reach 30m on PS3/360?
by Jacob Mazel, posted on 27 June 2010 / 4,437 Views
The age of multiplatform hits continues to evolve - two of the five current platforms now have the same title - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, from Activision, as their top selling game. As of the week ending June 19, 2010 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 has ousted Halo 3 as the top selling game of all time on X360. Between X360, PS3 and PC the game has already topped 20 million units according to Activision. As quickly as Halo 3 sold on the X360, it was pretty clear that if a game was totop Halo, it would probably need a bigger debut on X360. The only game to top the Halo 3 debut on X360 so far is none other than Modern Warfare 2. Sure enough, Modern Warfare 2 had the biggest opening of all time, and has made Call of Duty the biggest HD franchise of this generation, dethroning contenders such as Halo and Grand Theft Auto. Despite launching less than a year ago, 1 out of every 4 X360 and PS3 owners have Activision's mega-hit worldwide. The chart below depicts the top opening weeks for software in the current generation (Wii, PS3, X360, DS, PSP) as compared to lifetime figures.
Game System WW Week One Americas LTD EMEAA LTD Japan LTD Worldwide LTD LTD / WK 1
COD: MW 2 X360 4.94m 7.47m 3.50m 0.08m 11.05m x2.23
Halo 3 X360 3.82m 7.96m 2.94m 0.13m 11.03m x2.89
Pokemon D/P DS 3.49m 6.56m 4.95m 5.99m 17.50m x5.01
GTA IV X36 3.38m 4.88m 2.86m 0.10m 7.84m x2.31
COD: MW2 PS3 3.25m 4.26m 3.58m 0.24m 8.08m x2.49
Pokemon HG/SS DS 2.96m 2.39m 3.80m 1.75m 7.94m x2.68
SSB: Brawl Wii 2.72m 5.23m 2.18m 2.10m 9.51m x3.50
FFXIII PS3 2.70m 1.05m 1.20m 1.85m 4.09m x1.51
GTA IV PS3 2.55m 2.88m 3.39m 0.32m 6.59m x2.58
Mario Kart Wii Wii 2.37m 9.28m 9.84m 2.76m 22.40m x9.45
Despite launching to almost 5 million units on X360, and over 3 million on PS3, and setting the all time record for a game launch, Modern Warfare 2 has also had much stronger legs than other major HD titles such as Halo 3 and Grand Theft Auto IV. Modern Warfare 2 has more than doubled its opening week on both X360 and PS3 in less than a year. Despite being on the market for almost five times as long, Halo 3 has a multiplier only about 25% better than Modern Warfare 2, which implies that Halo 3 will fall signigicantly behind Modern Warfare 2 on X360. Grand Theft Auto IV, which has been on the market over three times as long as Modern Warfare 2, has an LTD / first week ratio that is nearly the same as Modern Warfare 2 for both HD systems.
The best way to explain how monumental the legs for Modern Warfare 2 have been on X360 is simply to compare it to where Halo 3 was in seven months (using aligned regional launches). Microsoft's flagship title stood at 7.7 million units worldwide on X360 seven months into its life. In the same time frame, seven months, Modern Warfare 2 is at 11.05m units worldwide. What that means is that Halo 3 had just doubled (x2.02) its week one sales in seven months. Modern Warfare 2 in contrast stands at x2.23 week one sales through seven months. Thus Modern Warfare 2 could end up reaching something like x3.25 its week one sales on the X360 once it has been on the market as long as Halo 3, coming to about 16 million units. The reason is simply that Modern Warfare 2's rate of growth with seven months on the market is 10% faster than Halo 3's growth even though Modern Warfare 2 had a bigger debut. While that figure may sound staggering, the game has sold 19 million copies in less than 8 months for X360 and PS3 - and so the game has clearly been bigger than Halo for months already. On PS3, the week one to ltd growth is even greater, so the title might reach a Brawl like 3.5x times its opening across both systems, or about 28 million units lifetime on the HD systems. Again that sounds like a lot, but with year one (Nov 2009 to Oct 2010) set to be 22 million or so, even if the game fell to 3-4 million units in year two it simply would not be that hard to reach a multiplier of x3.5 lifetime, or about 28 million. To get to 28 million or so, Modern Warfare 2 will likely have to maintain an attach rate similar to what it has right now over the lifetime of the X360 and PS3. It won't be an easy task for Activision to maintain interest in the game when newer Call of Duty games release, but it is possible.
Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
