NPD Data vs. VGC Data for the September 2007 Sales (9/2/07 to 10/6/07 - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 18 October 2007 / 3,414 Views

NPD has released its ‘September’ figures for the United States and Canada for the five weeks of September 2, 2007 to October 6, 2007. Vgchartz figures for the same period and for the same region have also been released. It is now time to compare the two sets of data (avg = total/ number of weeks (5) in the period).

September	VGC Sept	Sept avg	NPD Tot	NPD avg	NPD/VGC
Xbox 360	520,698	104,140	579,000	115,800	1.11
Wii	496,591	99,318	543,900	108,780	1.1
DS	620,910	124,182	540,800	108,160	0.87
PSP	348,422	69,684	306,500	61,300	0.88
PS2	290,933	58,187	231,500	46,300	0.8
PS3	168,393	33,679	135,000	27,000	0.80
GBA	97,145	19,429	83,600	16,720	0.86

Hardware figures for September were on average 14.4% different between NPD and Vgchartz over the five week reporting period (using absolute value correlation divided by the number of hardware platforms). The differences are quite interesting this month. On a percentage basis PS2 and PS3 had the greatest overestimation by Vgchartz – indicating that these two platforms were likely more impacted by the Halo 3 sales boost than was shown in the Vgchartz data sample. In fact, had this been a four week month, PS3 would have barely sold 100,000 units in the USA and Canada – combined – despite the release of Heavenly Sword and the foot traffic boost at retail from Halo 3. Wii appears nearly unaffected by the increased Xbox 360 sales – posting its second highest NPD figure since December (another 5 week month) of 2006. When compared to other sources, Vgchartz did quite well for the month – as can be seen below (NPD Total = NPD USA + NPD Canada). Hardware data this month was just about spot on in showing the increased PSP sales, strong DS/Wii/360 sales, with Wii being outsold by Xbox 360 by roughly 30,000 units.

Platform	VGC Sept	Pachter	Sim Exc	NPD USA	NPD Can	NPD Tot
DS	620,910	430,000	493,000	495,800	45,000	540,800
Wii	496,591	425,000	481,000	501,000	42,900	543,900
GBA	97,145	65,000		75,000	8,600	83,600
Xbox 360	520,698	450,000	400,000	527,800	51,200	579,000
PS3	168,393	150,000	165,000	119,400	15,600	135,000
PSP	348,422	252,000	283,000	284,500	22,000	306,500
PS2	290,933	220,000		215,000	16,500	231,500

Lastly, it is important to compare software numbers over the same sales period. Bolded data indicates cases in which NPD and VGC are within 20%.

	NPD Top Ten (USA)	NPD USA	NPD Can	NPD Tot	VGC
1	Halo 3	3,300,000	187,100	3,487,100	3,196,516
2	Wii Play	282,000	25,000	307,000	264,960
3	LOZ: PH	224,000	<15,000	<239,000	348,970
4	Madden 2008 (PS2)	205,000	<15,000	<220,000	227,848
5	Skate (360)	175,000	<15,000	<190,000	193,880
6	Madden 2008 (360)	173,000	<15,000	<188,000	238,652
7	Metroid Prime 3	167,000	16,400	183,400	248,417
8	Bioshock	150,000	<15,000	<165,000	282,531
9	Brain Age 2	141,000	20,800	161,800	204,108
10	Heavenly Sword	139,000	<15,000	<154,000	207,346

While hardware data continue to be pretty reliable, software data is improving at a slower rate. Still, four games were within 20% of NPD’s figures, and over half of the games were within 30%, which is far better than what the hardware margins of error were back earlier in 2007. In time, the software data will reach the levels of hardware accuracy, although it is not yet to that point.

51 Comments

princess (on 19 February 2009)

Akin (on 21 October 2007)

So when does VG chartz get updated to reflect new data? next period?

Akis1975 (on 20 October 2007)

WOW madden 08 for ps2 seem to have better legs than the 360. That huge userbase sometimes pays off.

Akis1975 (on 20 October 2007)

So wii360 did even better than we thouhgt and ps ps3 were overestimated.

Also on another note all month long everyone was eating up wii owners on how bioshock was outperforming metroid. I guess someone owes an apology to the wii gamers.
When ioi makes the correction (maybe by next week) the difference on those 2 cames will be much smaller

"The source" rules

moneyrumble (on 19 October 2007)

What's everybody's impression of Skate sales? Under or over-performing?

Punisher (on 19 October 2007)

So many charts... my head spins...
But anyways good job like always TheSource.

Wingshot (on 19 October 2007)

"I predict that the PS3 will outsell Xbox 360 over the life of the platform, because Xbox 360 will never be big seller in Japan, and will probably not be the leader in Europe, even as soon as this Christmas, but certainly in 2008."

The Wii will probably beat the 360 in Europe this year, but I don't think the PS3 will ... based on VG numbers PS3 has an installed base of 1.7M in 'Other" regions (which I assume is Europe and Australia primarily) compared to 3.75M for the 360. So assuming MS still makes some sales the PS3 would have to double its installed base just to remain even.

MS could "win" this round against Sony solely on its dominance in the American market and hanging close in Europe and Australia.

As for lifetime ... games sell consoles and right now and for at least another 2 years developers have a lot more incentive to produce a 360 title instead of or at least before a PS3 title. Maybe the PS3 will catch and surpass the 360 but I don't see it happening for another 3 years if at all. Even if it does happen the margin will be very close and at this point Sony is bleeding cash faster than MS. The final straw could well be MS being in a position to launch the 720 a year ahead of the PS4 giving Sony less time to recoup its investment.

MarkTime (on 19 October 2007)

Others have said it, but, again listening to the armchair analysis, I think it bears repeating that Nintendo Wii sales are supply limited, not demand. Until they have their supply problems worked out, we just cannot see what the sell through rate might be. Of course, as a practical matter, the sales are the sales.

I think Sony is not doing as well as they hoped, but, they do have the luxury of having the perception of the high end console. So as they lower prices, they can spike demand, almost at will. Just depends upon how much money the want to lose.

And I think this is the problem for both Microsoft and Sony, is they both gambled on worldwide sales, and they both only managed to get certain markets. Someone said the original xbox was a 4 billion loser...I think the 360 will be less of a loss leader, but a loss leader nevertheless.

Nintend is smelling like roses.....other than being unable to meet demand, they created a box to sell at a profit, didn't require domination at all, and got it anyway. That is sweet.

I predict that the PS3 will outsell Xbox 360 over the life of the platform, because Xbox 360 will never be big seller in Japan, and will probably not be the leader in Europe, even as soon as this Christmas, but certainly in 2008.

Microsoft does show they understand the American market though, timing every release and doing everything just right to maximize sales....I'm just amazed at the execution here. 360 Arcade at $280 right into the holiday season riding the Halo 3 wave...having supply last year....being the first to release a next gen system...on and on, not overlooking the missteps in quality...but overall, just astonishing execution.

banfro (on 19 October 2007)

Will VGchartz correct their numbers or what ?

mike_intellivision (on 19 October 2007)

Following up on Rath's comment ...

If NPD does not have a good tracking of Wal-Mart,
and people are buying different sort of games at Wal-Mart,
that could really call into question the NPD numbers.

I mention this because everytime I am there, someone is looking at the Nintendo games ... but not usually at the Sony or Xbox games.

Mike from Morgantown

Sullla (on 19 October 2007)

As usual, vgchartz did a very good job at predicting hardware sales (almost everything within ~15% of NPD) and a shakier job at estimating software. Halo 3 was tracked really well, but otherwise this was a step back from previous months. Usually vgchartz nails the top 10 (even if the actual numbers are off significantly), but this month some of the titles were wildly out of place. Since this website has a good track record overall, I'm going to assume that this was a temporary blip in results that hopefully won't reoccur.

Strangehold had to sell at least a million copies to break even, and it's not even going to reach 200k in America. Talk about uber-bomb! I still wonder what kind of crack Midway was smoking when they designed that one...

It's also desperation time for the PS3 in America. Sales are right back into the critical level (under 30k weekly) just a month after the first price cut. 135k in a five-month week is atrociously bad, especially considering that Microsoft and Nintendo were both well over 500k. There's no positive way to spin those kind of numbers. As I predicted a couple of weeks ago (and many of you thought I was crazy), this console generation is going to see a 50/50 split in the American market between 360 and Wii, both having very different gaming audiences and genres. It's going to be like the battle between the SNES and Genesis all over again. Unfortunately for Sony, there's just no place for the PS3 in this market, which is why sales will continue to stagnate for the forseeable future...

mesoteto (on 19 October 2007)

it blows my mind that the wii is starting to settle around 90 some thousand units--thats a crazy number

360--great job geting up there, i really feel that the wii and 360 are goign to be duking it out for top counsel this gen

nintendo_fanboy (on 19 October 2007)

great job, thanks ioi and thesource for compiling the data and analysing it, respectively!

Wingshot (on 19 October 2007)

I question the "News Release" that has PS3 over 5m sold worldwide. With VG overestimating September America sales by 33K and giving no reason to assume that the past weeks sales were not over estimated as well the possibility of passing 5M lies completely on the "Other" sales regions.

If the "Other" sales regions are off by the same factor (VG had them at a staggering 70K for September) it seems pretty likely that the PS3 is getting close to 5M but has not breached the mark yet - albeit it may only be a week or 2 away.

OLDSCHOOL (on 19 October 2007)

Yeah Metroid Prime 3 really didn't sell as well as it should have. Nintendo say that they are pleased but I disagree. The game is excellent! It's the first game since Zelda in my opinion that can be considered a AAA game but Nintendo seem to have forgotten to market it!

Bioshock and Halo 3 are great but so is Metroid Prime 3. Hopefully it has long legs like other Nintendo titles!

Cryoakira (on 19 October 2007)

Hum.. Guys, MP3 diden't exactly sell more than Bioshock. Look at the totals... Not the same at all..

Diomedes1976 (on 19 October 2007)

Wow ,I didnt thought Halo 3 would sell so many consoles .And I am surprised about the PS3 ,I thought it would at least keep the same level of last month but it has fallen again some 7K units .I would guess the Halo 3 effect has been harmful for the rival consoles but the Wii is just selling the same as before ...PSP numbers keep improving .Sony is starting to be in a dangerous position in NA ,the price drop will help but they must start putting their more powerful IPs out as soon as possible .

banfro (on 19 October 2007)

I hope numbers on home page will be changed according to NPD numbers,..

Rath (on 19 October 2007)

I was wondering, whats NPDs supposed accuracy on game sales?

Im guessing they are probably +-5% on hardware (just guessing from MC/Famitsu differences actually) but with software sales are they significantly less accurate?

flagship (on 19 October 2007)

Good to see the hardware matching up so nicely, software seems to be a bit overtracked but with the number of titles being tracked now it's still in the ballpark.

Interesting that Stranglehold and Medal of Honor were so high, Heavenly Sword being so long really doesn't surprise me, after Lair and War hawk I wasn't expecting stellar sales.

Kasz216 (on 19 October 2007)

As for everywhere else, It's about 50-30-20. I wonder how both will change with apparently a mountain of shovelware and a couple decent games coming out for the Wii this month. I know all the PS2 games were further marked down in Toys R Us to make room for new stock.

Kasz216 (on 19 October 2007)

In the Toys R US in my Area the Wii had the Small corner display for a while, with the 360 had two rows of games, the Wii had a row, the Gamecube games had a row and the PS2 games had a row, Same with the DS games, Not sure about PSP games were off in some other corner.

Now The 360 has 2 rows, the Wii has nearly 2 rows with a couple gamecube games stuffed on the side of one and the PS3 games are in the tiny corner.

Being in that corner might not be that bad of a spot though. It's the first thing you see when you walk into the electronics department. Though they do stock less games and many are hidden behind other games.

--OkeyDokey-- (on 19 October 2007)

wow, metroid sold better than bioshock eh? was metroid undretracked or was bioshock overtracked? probably the latter, i never really beleived bioshock was selling as well as vgchartz said.

ouch, look at the ps3. heavenly sword well and truly flopped and the hardware sales are pathetic. i would have never guessed an NPD chart to look like this a year ago, but i guess the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

FishyJoe (on 18 October 2007)

Shelf space is quite often negotiated/bought for large chain stores. If a company is willing to pay the price, they can have their products displayed in the best locations. Sales also factors in, this is why these things are negotiated.

Griffin (on 18 October 2007)

Very interesting sales data for last month, i'm surprised to see the software sell so poorly.

outlawauron (on 18 October 2007)

@ madskillz

Im live in southeast USA.

Ill breakdown the shelf space.
PS2 (by far) -> 360 (then a big drop off) -> PSP (due to the new Slim, it got lots more space) -> DS -> Wii = PS3 (Im not including Blu-Ray movies, so they are equal) -> Xbox -> PC -> GBA -> Gamecube -> PS1.

Depending on area interest, sales are different as is space and adverts.

The_vagabond7 (on 18 October 2007)

Good job, I'm impressed. Software numbers will get better in time, and your hardware is pretty damn good.

The PS3 is getting skunked hard. Congrats to the 360 ending the wii's winning streak, and congrats to the wii for..well...being the wii.

gebx (on 18 October 2007)

Hey IOI, is this the first month that vgchart accuracy hasn't improved over the last month?

gebx (on 18 October 2007)

Hey IOI, is this the first month that vgchart accuracy hasn't improved over the last month?

madskillz (on 18 October 2007)

@ Outlawauron

Interesting ... even around town, you'll see different configs. Usually, though, the PS3 is the smallest. That's interesting about the Wii stock ... where do you live?

erikers (on 18 October 2007)

@ioi
I don't know, the hardware is always pretty on and only off by small amounts. However you shouldn't be content with the software sales and be happy you were in the ball park with half of them. 5 or more of the games were off by 50-100k which isn't even close and Medal of honor and Stranglehold were off by well over 100k and weren't even in the top 10. Most peoples random guesses would have been closer on some of those titles.

outlawauron (on 18 October 2007)

@madskillz

Shelf differs from area to area. The 360 has like 30 shelves at the big game store in my area. Whereas the Wii and PS3 have same amount of space. (about 10 shelves)

dschumm (on 18 October 2007)

I am very pleased with how well VGC continues to predict consoles numbers. There have been all kinds of priced drops and now Halo 3 and VGC gets better and better. Bravo.

Software well... lets just say it's still in Beta stage. The Halo call was pretty spot on.

I wish I had tracked all the people who had claimed this or that was soooooooo...... under tracked.

Once again I have to echo ioi statements about how the goal/hope/sumary of these number is about picking trends, and we see it here before anywhere else. VGchartz followed the increased Wii supply, the size of the Halo 3 impact software and hardware, and the stagnation of PS3 after price drop 1.

madskillz (on 18 October 2007)

@ ioi
Man, I am not complaining - you all do a great job with numbers. I am a journalist and I refer to your site for game/console numbers in some of my stories. Seriously, most folks don't realize that polling is a lot less accurate than the formula you use. Maybe you should patent it ...

DonWii (on 18 October 2007)

I think it will be a while before the software improves.
Also, I doubt the holiday season will be any easier to track.

madskillz (on 18 October 2007)

@ Starcraft
They do! It's folks so in love with Sony - who see no wrong in their ways - that need to see. I know there are different trends around the world, but one thing is for certain - all companies are in it to make money. The 360 and Wii wouldn't get that much shelf space unless it was making money. At local Gamestops, the Wii has like 4 shelves, the 360 has 10 shelves and the PS3 has like 2. If a system keeps under performing, there's not a demand and that affects sales. When that happens, retailers quit carrying devices. It's all about business - and the PS2 is having better sales than the PS3 right now. True, there are many more games, but ... it's still outselling the PS3 nearly 2-1. And that's not even counting old games being resold by Gamestop, Hastings and now Target.

For Sony to take the PS3 off PS2 life support was one of the biggest boneheaded ideas I have ever seen.

madskillz (on 18 October 2007)

Arkk (on 18 October 2007)

Sony looks as though they are getting pummelled in the home console market. PSP sales are increasing. I just wish they would release some better games for it, as software sales are abysmal. Wii and DS, fantastic as usual. 360, great job jumping over the Wii, but I expected a bit more from the hardware side.

Honestly, with the new SKU being $399 american (i live in calgary, Alberta), I might just have to pick a PS3 up and join the minority of people who already own one. R & C looks good and Resistance has proven to be quite an awesome game.

Good on ioi and everyone else who helps out on the sight. It's nice to have numbers that are relatively close on a weekly basis. Especially when we had nothing at all before lol.

koffieboon (on 18 October 2007)

TheSource, I think your software comparison actually shows a too pretty picture. Both Stranglehold 360 and Medal of Honor Airborne 360 were in the top 10 selling games according to vgchartz and were way overtracked. Stranglehold is at 104k according to NPD and according the vgchartz numbers it was the 4th best selling game of the month with 280k units sold. I don't have any number for Medal of Honor, but it can't be above the 139k of Heavenly Sword in the US. Those 2 games seem to have been overtracked by about 100% or even more.

mundurden (on 18 October 2007)

I'm a little surprised to see MP3 actually sold more units than BioShock, though not by much...

white devil (on 18 October 2007)

It actually amazes me that this site, for the reporting period, under-tracked the 360 and Halo 3. I thought it would end up being over-tracked.

starcraft (on 18 October 2007)

Nah im in Australia. At my most local game store the 360 has a nice long shelf with high quality titles whereas the PS3 has a small out of the way shelf where its often the same game being placed repeatedly along an entire row....its quite sad. But what needs to happen is that retailers need to see that the 360 can bring in SERIOUS revenue this holiday season to encourage them to keep it in a position of prominence even after K2 and MGS4.

madskillz (on 18 October 2007)

@ Starcraft
Are you in the U.S.? I frequent Best Buys, Wal-Marts and the like ... and I can see the 360 with at least 3 to 4 times the shelf space (games) than the PS3. The Wii is roughly the same. And today in Toys 'R' Us, the PS3 shelf was a shelf and a half of games - the Wii and 360? Four shelves - all stocked.

I even saw a 60gb PS3 and an 80gb Motorstorm bundle. And after talking to an associate, he told me Halo 3 was sold out at most Toys R Us around town - except his store. Other stores send customers to their store to get copies.

I definitely want to see how big of a splash the 40gb PS3 stripped crip will do this holiday season. Inquiring minds want to know ...

scotland yard (on 18 October 2007)

Solid reporting by ioi and VGChartz again. There are a few hiccups with software predictions, but it is a very strong barometer of actual sales.

outlawauron (on 18 October 2007)

Hmmm .... I remeber back april whenever we undertracked, but now we are overtracking. But VgChartz is getting more accurate.

starcraft (on 18 October 2007)

The 360 did fantastically, but it really needs to keep beating the PS3 substantially this holiday season. I believe the 360's 2008 line-up will be better than the PS3's, but the problem is the PS3 has big name franchises that create the illusion of an enormous line-up, even though they are faltering franchises (MGS4, K2, FFXIII). The 360 has amazing looking fresh IP as well as big-name sequels like Fable 2, BK3 and possibly gears of war and perfect dark sequels. But they really need to create the feeling that the Xbox 360 owns North America and can hold its own in Europe.

madskillz (on 18 October 2007)

And for a few moments, my name is red - so I am a mod ... ha ha ...

madskillz (on 18 October 2007)

Wow ... excellent job as always, Source. I know you usually undertrack 360 numbers, but the PS3 was way overtracked. Sad state of affairs at the Sony household. They are losing a lot more than I thought ...

NJ5 (on 18 October 2007)

These are terrible, terrible sales for the PS3... I wonder if the price cut and 40 GB model announcement was done today in order to counter the bad news.

FishyJoe (on 18 October 2007)

Cool, thanks.

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