Previewing Nintendo, Sony, & Microsoft March 11' Quarter Results - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 24 April 2011 / 4,171 Views
Nintendo (April 25), Microsoft (April 28), and Sony (May 26) are set to reveal how much money they made or lost in the March 2011 quarter in the coming weeks. As Nintendo and Sony fiscal years also end in March, I'll focus on their results first, even though Sony's results do not arrive for quite some time.
Nintendo
During the March 2011 quarter, Nintendo sold 2.60m Wiis, and 4.70m portables, 2.80m units of the original DS line, 1.90m units of the 3DS line according to VGChartz figures. Nintendo just launched 3DS in February 2011 but the company had a shipment target of 4m units for the system. It seems pretty clear that Nintendo missed the 3DS target on the hardware side by at least 1m units even if retailers bought more devices than they should have initially.
In the previous quarter, the three months ending December 2010, Nintendo sold 9.45m Wiis, and 9.80m DS systems according to VGChartz data. Shipments for both systems came in about 10% lower than each figure as retailers had to burn through some excess stock, at 8.74m Wiis and 9.01m for the DS line. With January and February sales pretty strong for Wii and the whole quarter still strong for the original DS particularly with Pokemon Black / White, there is little reason to believe Nintendo shipped less than 2.35m Wiis and 2.50m units of the original DS in the March 2011 quarter.
Nintendo had targetted 4m 3DS, 16m Wiis, and 18.5m DS systems shipped for the March 2011 year once its December results were released. Based on VGC data, Nintendo shipped 2.5m - 3.0m 3DS systems, a shortfall of $250m - $375m from the 4m projection, but met its Wii projection of 16m, and just missed its DS projection at 18.2m.
On the software side, Nintendo had projected the following figures for its platforms during the fiscal year ending March 2011:
174m Wii games shipped (including bundles), 120m DS games shipped, and 15m 3DS games shipped.
VGChartz data shows Nintendo and third parties sold only 2.05m 3DS games through the end of the March quarter. Given that the 3DS base will eventually buy more than one game per user though, something like 5m - 10m games were likely shipped. Either way, 3DS software still looks like a miss against the projection.
For Wii, 150.54m Wii games shipped from April to December 2010. For January to March 2011, VGChartz data shows over 33m games were sold for Wii - suggesting Nintendo beat its software projection for Wii by at least 5m units and possibly by nearly 10m units. The Wii software figures do make sense - as many as eight titles likely had shipments of over 1m units for the quarter based on their sell through.
DS game shipments tallied 98.98m from April to December 2010. In the final quarter of the year, VGChartz data shows over 24.5m games sold for DS. This is in line with Nintendo's projection of 120m units for the year ending March 2011 given the total through December 2010.
With the Yen briefly at historic strength against other currencies in the wake of Japan's March 2011 disasters, Nintendo likely missed its revenue and profit forecast. The 3DS hardware shortfall should also create a 20-30b Yen hit on the projected revenue forecast. Software figures aren't too bad though, as the miss on 3DS software looks to be roughly offset by stronger than expected Wii software sales which sells at a higher price than 3DS software. Overall, Nintendo probably made about 1.05T Yen ($13.1b roughly) instead of the projected 1.10T Yen for fiscal year revenue. Fiscal year profit will probably be closer to 80-85b Yen ($1.00b-$1.06b) than the forecast 90b Yen ($1.13b).
Nintendo should also provide an outlook for the March 2012 year at its briefing. Odds are Wii hardware and software will be forecast slightly down, DS hardware will be forecast way down with software down less, while 3DS hardware and software will be well up from the current fiscal year. The wildcard is whether Wii 2, Zii, Stream, Super Wii, or whatever it will be called shows up in the forecast. Despite rumors to the contrary it is rather unlikely that Wii 2 will launch in late 2011 given that Wii should return to selling 135k-150k or more per week once the price cut arrives. The 3DS would also suffer from competing against too many other new / popular Nintendo products at Christmas. As a complete shot in the dark, expect something like 14m Wiis, 14m DS, 12m 3DS, and 1m Wii 2 to be projected for the March 2012 year (41m units of hardware, up from 37m in FY 3/2011), with Wii 2 launching in March 2012 in Japan and late 2012 in the West. Software shipments for the March 2012 year should be something like 165m (Wii), 100m (DS), 35m (3DS), 2m (Wii 2), roughly flat from this year (180m Wii games, 120m DS games, 5m 3DS games).
Sony
Sony builds many of its devices in Japan, and had to briefly close several of these facilities as a result of Japan's crises. Like Nintendo, the company will also be impacted by the strength of the Yen. As a result, due to the hit in production capability and the Yen, Sony likely will miss its revenue forecast of 7.2T Yen as well as its 70b Yen profit target. The currency issue alone is likely to shave off 1-2% from each figure. Odds are the real problem will be the expense of rebuilding damaged facilities and rebounding from the production hit suffered in Japan's disasters - which is why Sony is not reporting its results for another month yet.
Within the video game sector, Sony had projected to ship 15m PS3s, 8m PSPs, and 6m PS2s in the year to March 2011. Game shipments across the three platforms were forecast to be at similar levels to the previous fiscal year - about 195m units.
Sony recently announced that PS3 shipments reached 50m units on March 29, 2011. Given that 35.7m PS3s were shipped through March 2010, this means Sony missed its target slightly, shipping roughly 14.3m systems (a $225m revenue shortfall) in the fiscal year and about 2.1m units in January-March 2011. PS2 shipments were 5.2m units in April to December 2010 - but Sony announced PS2 shipments reached 150m through January 2011, after being at 149.7m through December 2010, which indicates that roughly 0.9m PS2s shipped in the quarter - which VGChartz data supports with sellthrough at 770,000 units. Sony thus beat its PS2 target for hardware slightly at 6.1m PS2s shipped vs. 6m forecast. The PSP also looks like it slightly beat its forecast, as Sony shipped 6.3m PSPs from April to December, and VGChartz data (1.65m) supports shipments of about 1.8m units for January to March which would indicate an 8.1m fiscal year for PSP.
For software, PS3 game shipments were 117.7m from April to December 2010. Over the same time frame PSP game shipments were 36.7m units, and PS2 game shipments were 14.3m units. From April to December 2010, game shipments for Sony platforms reached 168.7m units out of the roughly 195m projected for the fiscal year. In the March 2011 quarter, VGChartz data shows PS3 games sold 29m units with PSP games at about 10m units. With PS2 software thrown in, software shipments for Sony platforms likely reached 44m units - flat from the previous March quarter. Overall software shipments for Sony platforms thus reached about 213m units for the fiscal year, probably a bit (5-10m) ahead of Sony's expectations.
With stronger than expected software shipments and slightly weaker than expected PS3 hardware shipments, video game revenue in Sony's Networked division where Playstation products are created now, likely missed expectations modestly (-$50m) but still contributed a sizable profit to Sony as a larger entity.
For the March 2012 fiscal year, once again as a complete shot in the dark, PS3 hardware should be flat on a price cut as it increased only 10% on a Slim model and price cut in the March 2011 year, with PSP and PS2 hardware down substantially. Software shipments should also drop, even with PS3 likely flat, and NGP growing from nothing, as PSP and PS2 begin to decline faster. NGP also won't launch early enough in the year to offset the declines. Figures for the March 2012 year should be something like 14m PS3s, 6m PSPs, 3m NGPs, and 3m PS2s for the fiscal year - 26m units of hardware, down from 28.5m units in the March 2011 year. Software will come to something like 150m PS3 games, 30m PSP games, 10m PS2 games, and 5m NGP games, or 195m games in total, down from the estimated 213m in the March 2011 year by about 10%.
Microsoft
Microsoft doesn't provide software shipment figures for X360, but it does keep track of hardware shipments. As of December 2010, Microsoft had shipped 50.8m X360s, and during the March 2011 quarter, Microsoft sold through another 2.5m X360s. In the December 2010 quarter, Microsoft sold through 10% more systems than it shipped according to VGChartz data - 7m sold vs. 6.3m shipped. Thus shipments are likely around 2.3m units this quarter as Microsoft burns through more stock.
VGChartz data also indicates Microsoft sold through 2.5m Kinects for the quarter, either standalone or as bundles. Microsoft has been announcing shipment figures for Kinect - and for the quarter the company likely shipped 3m Kinects for a grand total of 11m in five months.
Microsoft's fiscal year doesn't end until June 2011, so we won't be getting a forecast of any kind. At 2.3m units shipped in the March 2011 quarter, Microsoft shipped 12.9m X360s in the year to March 2011, a record for Microsoft over any 12-month period since entering the video game business. If Microsoft did provide game shipment figures, the data would likely be similar but lower than PS3 over the last 12 months given that a) the Microsoft base is bigger than Sony's PS3 base but growing more slowly, and b) with more time on the market, X360 purchasing rates per user per year should be lower than the PS3 purchasing rate per user.
As a company, Microsoft will continue to make tons of cash. For the Entertainment division, where X360 and other products are designed, Microsoft's profit should remain around $600m - $800m for the trailing 12 months.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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3M PS2s in 2012, that would make PS2 selling for 12 years ! That's impressive ! I think 2600 sold for 14 years (1977-1991).
I've seen a graph on NeoGaf showing Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony profits since entering the VG business, it seems Nintendo is smartter, Sony not too bad and Microsoft still having lost money but improving.
I see Wii beaing at roughly 86.83M rather than 87M then now that I think about it.
Well if we go by NPD, we roughly have 300k in Other America, compared to less than 200k for 360, I don't see any reason why Wii would be selling better than PS360 in Mexico, Canada ect, so I think our numbers are slightly off there.
That's US right? so about 1.25M including canada, mexico and the rest.
Jan 320k, Feb 454k, March 290k, So 1 mill,064k
Well NPD has 1 mill and 50k from Jan/Feb/March
I thought they said 1M in US from end of Q4 2010 to end of February 2011.
@ Nintendogamer, they sold 1.050 in USA Q1, not 1.33
Now i get it they still had a few in Q4 to sell this year, I'm watching a movie aswell, so I may miss a few parts.
Nintendo said Wii topped 35M in USA, that was end of Febriary so let's say about 1.33M in USA end of march 2011, 200,000 and about 800K in EMEAA, making it 86.98M.
@ Nintendo, did you read the article? Wii sold stock from Q4 in Q1, so it isn't shipped/sold.
I doubt Vgchartz has over tracked wii by about 700K, and that would mean about 650,000 in EMEAA alone!, must be about 50.6M PS3 shipped, so about 2.8M shipped, outshipped Wii about 440K.
I doubt Vgchartz has over tracked wii by about 700K, and that would mean about 650,000 in EMEAA alone!, must be about 50.6M PS3 shipped, so about 2.8M shipped, outshipped Wii about 440K.
Also, I very much doubt Wii outshipped PS3 this Q. Given they're 50k apart in NPD, Japan has a 200k lead for PS3, and I doubt Wii has been above PS3 in Europe/Asia these last few months. If PS3 is at 2.2, I imagin Nintendo missed their shipment again and are at 1.9 or something.
We have Kinect sell through this Q at 2.15M sell-through, not 2.5, if MS do indeed get to 11 mill shipped, we've gone from 700k on shelves in January, to 1.86M
I'm basing myself on MS results, when they announced 50 million but then it was revealed that they were 50.8
It could be 50.1m or 50.2m, but for 50.7m they'd have announced this a little earlier as its a big milestone. We'll see in May though.
Sony said this: (SCE) today announced that the cumulative sales of the PlayStation®3 (PS3®) reached a milestone of 50 million units worldwide, as of March 29, 2011
Oh what to cherry pick, what to cherry piiiiiiiiiiiiick ....
Did Sony confirm it was exactly 50 million PS3's shipped? Else you could be underestimating by as much as 0.9 million, and I think that's the case, you are underestimating since PS3 outsold Wii according to VGC on this quarter.
Also on that not I think Nintendo will project Wii at 14M (101M) and DS 13M(160M) for March 2011, for sony roughly the same for PS3 but lower for PSP.
I guess WIi will be 87M, 147M for DS, 53M for 360, 50.7M PS3 and 68.5M for PSP.
