Guest Editorial: Siren Opines on "The Future of Gaming Hardware" - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 30 November 2007 / 2,456 Views

Recently, Siren sent me a copy of an editorial he wrote about the future of gaming hardware. It was well written, so after speaking about it internally we've decided to put it up. This editorial does not reflect the opinion of Vgchartz. If you would like to opine on a gaming issue, feel free to contact us.

"The Future of Gaming Hardware" by Siren/Anthony Hanses of http://www.emaglive.com/

I had a sudden urge to try to give a realistic perspective on the future after reading trash journalism like the following - http://www.tech.co.uk/home-entertainment/g...-console?page=2

As unfortunate as it may sometimes be, people have a tendency to want to predict what will occur in the future. All too often, the predictions end up as nothing more than one’s hopes and dreams of what the future will hold rather than a realistic perspective of what could come to pass.

In this opinion piece I will attempt to lay out realistic expectations for all three major console manufacturers for their primary platform next generation. I look forward to having people pick apart my ideas and discuss them. After all, this is what actually happens at the corporations in question. A person takes an educated look into the future and tries to predict what the company can deliver. Following this, a team picks apart the idea and over a few months they come up with something grounded in facts that they set off to plan, design, build, and deliver.

So, let’s start off with the current market leader and work our way from there.

Nintendo has been amazingly successful with the Wii. By all estimates they are selling better than the PS2 did at the same point in its life. One could easily call it the spiritual successor to the PS2, much to the chagrin of many a hardcore gamer. So what could one reasonably expect Nintendo to follow up the Wii with?

To start, we have to take into account Nintendo’s top motivation. Above all else they want to profit, and they are quite good at doing so. This leads us into two expectations.

1) Launch after 6 years of Wii on the market
2) Release a sub-$300 system again at a profit

The N6 platform is likely to release sometime around fall of 2012. The N6 will likely be cost effective and feature growth on the motion control scheme introduced with the Wii. I would not dare predict what those control improvements will be, but they will likely cost about the same to implement as what we currently see in the Wii cost when it launched.

In regards to the system, I expect the N6 to remain cost effective and easy to develop for. Keeping the Wii hardware similar to the GameCube enabled Nintendo to simplify the development transition phase for their internal teams as well as external partners. They will likely do the same going into next generation. Expect to see the Broadway and Hollywood chipset mostly get a speed boost and slightly more feature complete. The Broadway will likely go Dual-Core at best and get clocked up around 2.5ghz. The Hollywood will likely get some shaders added to it and a mild speed boost into the 500mhz range. Add in some RAM in the range of 512 – 768mb and you get a system capable of achieving just about what the 360 and PS3 are today when they’re pushed.

This will put Nintendo in a strong position price-wise. Even if the competition were to offer cost effective systems in the range of Nintendo’s price, Nintendo could afford to drop the price while still maintaining profit. This is the key advantage Nintendo will want to maintain above all else.

From a software standpoint, I expect Nintendo to mostly keep focus on gaming and its content. By the time the system comes out WiiWare should have taken off a bit and be in a good place to grow. Add some more onboard memory, probably around 4gb, and you get a nice platform for downloadable content.

Moving onto Microsoft, life starts to get a bit more interesting. While currently people expect Microsoft to push the technological limit again, I would bet otherwise. If there is one thing the last two generations have taught Microsoft, it is that pushing limits comes at a great cost. The R&D cost is the easy part, it’s what happens after you ship that is the problem. As it is, a lot of their early adopters from this generation are likely to take a step back and wait a few months to get the X3.

So what will these gamers have to look forward to? For starters, a smaller and quieter system. By staying away from the bleeding edge, they will likely need less cooling and less cooling means smaller system. I expect to see the system come in around the size of the PS2 or Dreamcast. They will also likely go with a multi-sku environment once again, but with an interesting twist.

With the recent addition of Xbox Originals to the Xbox Marketplace, it wouldn’t be a big leap to expect them to eventually offer complete games on the service. With the current size of the Hard Disk Drive in the 360, the launch of the X3 could be the perfect time to kick start the full game digital distribution age. What better way to do this than to make it clear to consumers that digital is the way to go? This could be achieved by having the Core SKU of the X3 come with a HDD and no disc based media drive. A purchaser of this SKU would have the intention to never buy games in disc format again, instead opting to get all their games online through the Live Service.

As all games would be designed to run off the HDD, the Premium SKU could still ship with just a DVD Drive. Gamers would be given the opportunity to install the games or play them off the disc and have them install during play. Once games were installed, they would no longer be required to put the disc in to play. This of course would require a much larger HDD. Using some of Microsoft’s software technologies designed to enable the 360 to play games compressed to 7gb of space that take easily twice that on competing systems, they could keep games to under 25gb this coming generation. Figuring that they want some space for video and downloadable content storage and an average of 8 – 12 games sold per user over the system’s life, they could likely get by with around a 300gb HDD in both the Premium and Core SKUs. To make it more appealing, the next iteration of the Elite could ship with a 1 – 2TB HDD.

The initial fear of gamers would be that they would no longer be able to trade in or sell these titles, but that could be solved by having a unique ID bound to each title. This would be similar to what you currently see with copies of Windows and Office. To make things easier, this 25 character (or more) ID could be written to each disc at the time of printing and automatically entered by the disc at install. In order to play games without the disc, the system would have to be connected to the internet. Every time you launched the game, it would validate that you have the rights to play it. It would probably also validate periodically during play to make sure you maintained rights to do so.

If you sold the game to someone else, basically they just put the disc in their system and it validates online, taking ownership of the rights. Once this happens, the original owner can no longer play the title and is asked to re-insert a game disc to re-authenticate. With the online validation, even if a group of friends made perfect copies of the disc, getting booted every 3 minutes due to their friend playing would suck. In addition, they could place a limit on re-authentications per day to three or so and prevent more common sharing from occurring.

This would enable another interesting scenario as well. Right now one of the largest expenses for retailers is stock. Using this mechanism, retailers could be provided with an internet linked disc burner. When a consumer bought a copy of a game, they could just burn a disc with the game and a new authorization code. It could also print a case cover and a manual right there for relatively cheap and pretty fast. They could then give the game to the consumer and let them go. If a new game released and it had higher than expected demand, the retailer could keep up with the demand with ease. If a game underperformed, they are not left with an excess of stock that no one wants.

As far as the CPU and GPU go, I expect Microsoft to follow Nintendo in this regard a bit. They will likely keep their base architecture and just focus on increased speed and developer friendliness. I expect the CPU to go up around 5ghz and stay at 3 cores. These three cores will likely be more complete cores with full branch prediction included. I expect to see increase cache to around 4 – 8mb. The GPU should have enough DRAM to handle full 1080p frames and enough logic units to provide 4x MSAA and multi-frame HDR lighting. The GPU will likely get a boost in speed to just over 1ghz and some more advancements in rendering capabilities that I cannot venture a guess at (who would have expected to see a unified shader in the 360 GPU in 2002?).

Last but not least, I expect them to end up with around 3gb of RAM in the system. In addition, they will likely sport a good 256 - 512mb of on-board flash memory for the OS and general system use.

This will all work to improve general flexibility and ease of use for developers while still providing a nice leap in power and experience for consumers. Expect Microsoft to launch in 2010 at the 5 year anniversary of the 360. Unlike what happened when they launched the 360, they will likely keep the old system going for a few years to help with transition and to make some extra profit off the aging hardware.

Next comes the next Sony system. Sony is having a bit of a rough time this generation as well due to their push for bleeding edge technology. In order to cut R&D costs while enabling them to produce a competitively priced system, they will likely outsource most of the chip design for the next system. I expect that the Cell chip will die with the PS3 and a more general multi-core processor will make an appearance in the PS4. The PS4 will likely push a little harder on the tech side of things than the 360 regardless of cost pressures. I expect to see Sony sport an 8 core general purpose CPU with an in-order processor. While this will be harder to develop for than the CPU in the X3, it would still be substantially easier than the Cell chip is.

The CPU will likely run in the same range as the X3, around 5ghz. The GPU is likely to remain 3rd party designed and clock in also at roughly the same speed. Part of the reason for these expectations is that I predict the PS4 will also release in 2010 despite that cutting the life of the PS3 to just 4 years. The PS3 is currently a loss leader money wise. In part due to design choices, it is not likely that Sony could reduce the price of the PS3 below $300 and profit anytime soon.

I expect to see the PS4 and 360 come in around the $300 and $400 price points with their respective two SKUs. When the PS4 SKU comes out, it will likely have pretty solid back compatibility due to the change to full cores from SPEs, offering some extra simplicity in software compatibility (though still not easy by any stretch of the imagination). Similar to what Microsoft did they will likely all but cancel the PS3 in the process, as selling it at roughly the same cost as the PS4 would not be very appealing and selling it at a loss just to keep it selling would not be savvy from a business perspective.

From a more system perspective, I expect Sony to stay with Blu-Ray and keep discs as their primary distribution method. They have already shown a willingness to offer full games for purchase on PSN, so they will also likely start offering all games for digital purchase around the launch of the PS4. They will likely maintain having a HDD and Blu-Ray in both the Core and Premium SKUs in order to maintain full compatibility. This will be in part because they will likely not have PSN up to the same level of development regarding digital licenses as the X3 and Live in 2010.

I expect PSN to be a more complete service by the time the PS4 launches. It will likely sport a unified user id for all games and the system, along with in-game XMB for all games. Unlike the 360, the PS4 and the X3 will likely offer the complete dashboard in-game, not a slimmed-down equivalent. Though, the in-game dashboard may have a simplified UI that focuses on functions the users would want most often in-game.

The PS4 will likely push the edge a little more and come in at 4gb of RAM. This will give them a competitive marketing edge on the X3 which could lead to Microsoft matching the RAM or offering their system for $50 cheaper across the board.

So to recap, expect to see the PS4 and X3 in 2010 with the N6 following in 2012. I would venture a guess that Microsoft and Sony will both offer an enhanced control option like a WiiMote with each system in addition to a main controller if Nintendo continues to dominate this generation. Other than that I will save any guesses for what future of control schemes may hold for a later editorial.

Anthony Hanses
Owner - Colloquy LLC
Operator - EMagLive.com

57 Comments

princess (on 19 February 2009)

mylastreckoning (on 15 March 2008)

hmm sounds interesting... i myself perfer disks cuz i like to have my games in collections and i like to keep the booklets and the disks inside the cases as well as buying from a store when the games first come uot cuz u get free stuff like when FFXII came out u got the art book and the cheaters guide and when GTA IV comes u get a lock box an art book and a duffle bag if everthing was digital what will become of all the special offers and the ppl like me who collect game series such as Final Fantasys and GTAs and who perfer to have the cases as a liberary for there obsessions so if what u say is true then im going with the PS4 like ive gone with PS3 and PS2 over the other competitors the sony line is much more efficiant and better in so many ways for example look at the crappy wii just like the gamecube it only plays games u cant play videos nor music disks and the games graphics wise really suck they may be good for some new to the gaming world but true hard core gamers deserve sumthn better then the wii the 360 is a good system as well the grafix are good and the games arnt so childish as they are for the wii now for the next gen i think the PS4 will come out on top and the only reason why the N6 might be up top is cuz its cheap and why buy cheap shit when u can splurg and get sumthn more then just a gaming system this gen is all about versitility being able to have on system that allows u to play music movies games save music save movies view photos save photos and upgrade the firmwares to get better programs basically what ppl want is and easy to use easy to pack and lug computer so i think since the PS3 has already achived that then the next gen belongs to them if they would only make it so u can fully save new games to the systems HDD so when u traval all u need is the system and a controller and not have to worry about breaking game cases cuz there all at home save on a shelf while the data is save on the system then that would be the perfect system no matter the cost and in my opinion Wii sucks the only reason it did good is cuz it was so damn cheap i got a few friends who bought it just forthat reason and they hardly play them now mainly when ppl r over they play but most games on the Wii r childish and get boring quite fast even when ur active due to the Wii remote the games still get boring too fast so 300$ for a Wii i aint buying maybe if it was like 100$ lol but im glad i put the extra money down on my PS3 now i have HD and BR DVDs and they look F@#$ing great plus the new Dual Shock controller is coming soon plus the internet for the PS3 is free and so are the update unlike 360 where u have to pay for the internet and the Wii where u have to buy upgrades lol ppl go with the PS3 and when the PS4 comes out buy no matter the cost i know u'll love it more then anythn else lol

stranne (on 04 December 2007)

@theshoe23,

It will be hard to compete with old gen hardware AND old gen controller.

@Slimebeast,

Yes, I certainly don't think the number of cores will stay the same. If I'd do the "simple approach" it would be to double or triple the cores for all the consoles and up the clocks a bit, not changing general architechtures. I know this is too simplistic, but then again all predictions will be far off anyway...for more opinions you could check out an interesting thread at Beyond3d.

Slimebeast (on 03 December 2007)

Stranne,

Ok, maybe I was too harsh. And yes, his HDD size estimate for Xbox 3 is quite reasonable.

I don't have a specific prediction myself, but it's very naive and unrealistic to think that all the 3 console manufacturers will totally repeat themself in next generation (Nintendo simply choosing the shitty hardware strategy again, MS choosing a 3 core CPU and Sony going for 8 cores again).

theshoe23 (on 03 December 2007)

So is someone going to comment on the guy that claims that Sony cannot compete against Nintendo or Microsoft next gen with old gen hardware? IS THAT NOT WHAT Nintendo is doing right NOW?! Whats that kettle, did you call me black?

ixaarii (on 03 December 2007)

@Guntar:
I can't think of any such content intensive high budget title except possibly Fatal Frame. I agree with you that such big titles take time to develop... maybe on the lines of 2-3 years from the moment it was decided, but like I was saying I believe Wii might be a quick in quick out big hit. Should that prove true: say a a developer realized in the summer how big Wii is going to be, they kicked off a minigame collection type game to take advantage of that which keeps them busy till 2008, and then they'd need another maybe 2 years for that AAA title, but even by 2009 Xbox360/PS3 are going to be very affordable which could cut into Wii popularity as we saw with the price drop in japan. If I were a developer I wouldn't invest big money in a big Wii title under these circumstances but would rather go for several smaller which both target it's audience and get out there soon while it has the chance to stand out and not risc falling in the shadows of that Wii2 that I think will come sooner rather than later (2009-2010). This may be my talking silly things but I'd think should it not be like this a) Nintendo might boldly state like Sony did that it will be a product that stands, though they did say sales... b) I think I'd be able to think of at least 3 high profile titles highly anticipated for 2009, again, I'm not saying Wii games aren't great, but I'm not talking about gameplay here but rather high production values, lots of motion capture, dialogue, very deep stories, lengthy cinematics... Should Kingdom Hearts 3 be announced for the Wii ... now that would be quite big and I believe do-able, but I still doubt we'll see games like Oblivion or Mass Effect. Also if things were as you say I'd expect Epic to be working on a Unreal 3 engine type thing for Wii. Now that would be a long term large scale type projects that would prove the Wii will then have a lot of big budget titles coming along the line later. Similarly I understand Square Enix's White Engine planned on being used on their future games is ps3/xbox360/pc... again another reason for a Wii2 to come with hardware that makes Square able to make direct ports.

stranne (on 03 December 2007)

@Slimebeast

What's your predicition then? I don't think the HDD size estimate is that off. TB 2.5" drives (and even more so 1.8") drives won't be cheap.

Guntar (on 03 December 2007)

ixarii:
"Wii specic games... are low(er) budget games, not the amazing AAA titles that gamers get excited on xbox360/ps3/pc."

These games are coming; they'll take a while, though. Don't forget, a lot of developers only started working on Wii games 6-7 months into the console's lifespan, and these high-budget games take a long time to develop. We won't start seeing a lot of them until the 2 year mark (don't forget, that's around when a lot of the high-profile games hit for the 360).

Also, many high-profile games are coming to the Wii soon, like Monster Hunter. That announcement was huge.

Until then, Nintendo is producing all the AAA titles. And there have been a lot of great Nintendo titles, and there will continue to be.

And sometimes budget software is absolutely amazing: just look at Zach & Wiki.

ixaarii (on 03 December 2007)

Sri Lumpa:
"Wii not getting them in its launch year has more to do with 3rd party expecting Nintendo's decline to continue (i.e. Wii selling less than 20M altogether) and thus not bothering doing good port of them than with the hardware (although the weaker hardware makes good ports harder and this combined with Nintendo's expected failure made good downports unlikely)."

While I partly agree with you: should developers have anticipated more of them had made wii games, I expect that like they promise these games would have been Wii specic games, which seems to me (like they keep pointing out), are low(er) budget games, not the amazing AAA titles that gamers get excited on xbox360/ps3/pc. Even with a huge install base developers it seems to me don't always do the sales thing of just capitalizing on big hardware, but they do the pushing the envelope thing too. My biggest example of this is Oblivion & PS2: for a long time, given it's huge success I kept thinking that given the golden age of ps2 not yet ending, and the mega-huge install base of the ps2 compared to any other console, I thought they'd make a ps2 version. Sure, with bad graphics, but some of that content. Never happened and I doubt it will even with the cross pollination of Wii-PS2. Similarly I doubt things will change a lot for the Wii. I'll be proven wrong when a game like MGS3 is made for the Wii: I'm talking in terms of production values. Right now just about all the Wii games I see go with the core of the platform: low investment. People keep saying that it's the fact that you don't have to produce HD materials that the Wii is a money saver, but I think that's just the surface of the water: I myself can totally enjoy a game with bad graphics but tons of other great content: a game like say Indigo Prophecy/Fahrenheit would totally rock my world about the Wii. But thing is I doubt that the same developers who choose Wii because they don't want to make a big investment in art creation studios will put the huge amounts of money that might not be needed for graphics but are still needed for motion capture, voice acting, content creation like geometry & music..

It would be exciting to be proven wrong on this one, proving once and for all that it's not about graphics but game content, but I really doubt it. I might have used words like "HD" but I'm not thinking about resolution that much. I think resolution is actually not that important (eg. if an action movie on tv was a game it wouldn't require more resolution, because the detail is there, the explosions, the depth in simulation...), but what is important is a lot of content, virtual worlds teaming with detail, thousands of AI characters, lengthy cinematics, rich music scores, many hours of voice acting/dialogue for the story... those are big drawing points for a game, and I think a special motion control & popularity can't replace those points for long. But like I was saying, I would love to being proven wrong by the industry with for example releases of Fallout 3, Mass Effect 2, Assassin's creed 2 & and the now older Oblivion on the Wii. It would show great maturity.

Slimebeast (on 03 December 2007)

Laughable, this "prophet" already knows that the PS3 lost this generation?

A Nintendo - in 2012! - with a GPU clocked only at 500Mhz?
An Xbox 3 with only 300Gb HDD? Yeah right.
And so on... all his technical predictions are out the window.

Garbage article.

Sri Lumpa (on 03 December 2007)

welshbloke says:
"The PS2 was not up against the world of HD the Wii is in addition sales of software do not reflect the manic clamour for the actual device itself. It would seem the majority of owners own 3 titles Play, Sports and one other"

I have yet to see that HD has any significant influence on the buying habit of the non-hardcore crowd. While I expect its influence to grow over time I do not believe that it will become critical before the next generation is upon us, at which point Nintendo's new system will be HD.

As for your view on software sales, given that Wii Sport is bundled everywhere except Japan it means you believe that half of the Wii's software sales are Wii Play which is patently wrong as Wii Play sold 7 millions while every other million sellers outside of Wii Sport/Wii Play sold a combined 16.43 millions and we are not even counting the many non-million sellers so there definitely is a lot of software sales out of the staples of Wii Sport and Wii Play.

ixaarii says:
"It seems now that Sony's hand is forced to go improoved cell with ps4. "

Not necessarily given that Sony already proved its willingness to drop BC with the great legacy of the PS2 i do not think they would have too many qualms in dropping the BC for the much less stellar PS3 library. And if the PS3 turns around to be as successful as PS2 thanks to Cell and have a great library I believe that the cost reduction on its production would make using it in PS4 a no-brainer and BC as easy on PS4 as GC BC is on the Wii.

"I must however disagree with your views on the Wii. I subscribe to welshbloke's views on the adoption of HD by 2009 (maybe 2010?)"

The thing is even if HD is a deciding factor by then it will be too late in this generation to turn the tide around just like XB/GC's extra power was too late (even though it was only one year late) to turn the PS2 tide. by 2009/2010 the Wii will have too much marketshare and too big a library for HD to be decisive in this generation (2009 would be 60% in this gen, using the typical 5 year gen, 2010 would be 80% in and whoever was the winner could easily last another year until the next gen like PS2 did).

I believe that 360 and PS3 will do better than Xbox/GC because of HD and because enough hardcore gamers/graphic huuuhenthusiasts ;) will prefer to play HD games but I believe that the more mainstream market that bought NES/SNES/PS1 and PS2's in droves will not care about it until it is too late to decide this generation.

"Wii doesn't get some of the most praised/anticipated games due to hardware limiations even in it's launch year, and this will get worse over time."

Wii not getting them in its launch year has more to do with 3rd party expecting Nintendo's decline to continue (i.e. Wii selling less than 20M altogether) and thus not bothering doing good port of them than with the hardware (although the weaker hardware makes good ports harder and this combined with Nintendo's expected failure made good downports unlikely).

Going forward the situation will get better for Wii with developers doing one of two things with the first (bad for Wii) choice diminishing as time goes by and the second choice increasing:
_ Those that still don't bother doing ports or only shoddy ports like today. I expect this to diminish especially once Wii sales in NA+PAL >= 360+PS3 sales in NA+PAL.
_Those that either put the effort in a good Wii port because enough market is there or develop only for Wii (see Monster Hunter 3, Fatal Frame 3?4?). It is happening in japan due to Wii's domination there (it is already more than 50% of the next gen market there unlike America and PAL) and it will become more apparent by E3 08 (game companies will have had more than a year to get their ass in gear to develop for the Wii).

If most 3rd party multiplatform games are still 360/PS3[/PC] by then without a significant increase in Wii 3rd party (wether multiplatform or exclusive) then I will change my mind about the Wii winning by a landslide (at least on the software front) but I just can't see it logically happening when it probably will have 50% of the PAL market and should be neck and neck with 360 in America if not ahead.

"I really don't know about ps3/xbox360 introducing a motion controller until next gen though... "

Re read my post because neither do I. But if they don't introduce a full-featured motion controller i their next gen console then their next gen console will have little impact on the Wii's success even though their specs will destroy it; thus leaving nintendo the opportunity to release the Wii's successor at their convenience.

Steve 3.2 says:
"Nintendo will drop GameCube support from the full Wii 2 system"

Unlike the early PS2 and early PS3 the Wii does not have extra hardware to do BC because the Wii hardware is an extension of the GC hardware in the same way that a Pentium was an extension of the 486 so as long as the Wii 2 has Wii BC it will also have GC BC because getting one give you the other for a very small cost.

Guntar (on 03 December 2007)

I think you guys are being a bit harsh on Siren on the digital distribution idea. It's coming, and it's the future. I doubt the cheap model will not have a optical drive, though--I think games are going to get significantly bigger next generation, and 7gb won't cut it. You can't really compress data that you're going to need to read quickly. Still, HDDs are the future, and I think the print-on-demand is coming soon. Also, his idea for discs is brilliant: if you don't want to go online, you just put in the disc. If you are online, you can play off the HDD. I think a lot of people here misread that, and assumed that you'd always need to be online if you wanted to play.

The one thing we learned this generation is that a console should not do everything. Nintendo dominated by doing one thing well. Sony tried to have a machine that would do everything, and failed. Therefore, Microsoft needs to capitalise on its online component. It's the one huge advantage Microsoft has over Nintendo and Sony. Both Nintendo and Sony are starting to catch up, though, so Microsoft needs to push the boundary, and play to its strengths. Digital distribution and HDD-play is the best way to do that. Print-on-demand probably won't exist in 2010, but it'll be here before the end of the next generation. If Microsoft can really innovate with digital content, it could provide new accesibility and ease-of-use that would really make owning the X3 an easy decision, and could allow Microsoft to really break away from the competition.

Therefore, I see Microsoft releasing in 2011, as it will use an extra year to get a bit more profit from its machine (part of the reason the original Xbox lost so much money was because of its short lifespan). Because Nintendo isn't a threat technologically, and the PS3 isn't in direct competition with Microsoft right now, Microsoft should sit back and actually make a bit of money for a change. If Microsoft releases a new console when the 360 is market leader in its niche, Microsoft will be competing with itself, which will only hurt profits.

For Sony, the next generation will require refocussing. Sony needs to know exactly what its console is supposed to do. After all, each company is learning from what the other ones are doing: Microsoft is trying to come out with systems and games that will appeal to a general audience, Nintendo and Sony are trying to come out with an online system to match Live, and Sony made the Sixaxis after seeing Nintendo's buzz. If Sony can't think of what it has that Microsoft and Nintendo don't, Sony's dead.

The PS2 dominated because it had a wide variety of software combined with a DVD player. Compared to the Xbox, which focussed mainly on a few genres, and Nintendo, which didn't have as wide a variety of games, the PS2 was able to be whatever you wanted it to be as a gaming console. The PS3 tried to tell its users what they wanted: a blu-ray player, high-end graphics, etc., etc. It had a set purpose in mind, and tried to get everyone to adhere to that purpose, and alienated a lot of developers and users by doing so.

Right now, Sony's experiencing a resurgence in sales because they're trying to court the people again; it's working, but it won't catch up to Nintendo or Microsoft. Most of their best-sellers are still multi-platform games, like Assassin's Creed. Being big and cutting-edge means nothing if your software is multi-platform.

They'll break even this generation, though, and be in a good position to reinvent themselves for the next generation. They still have a great audience in Japan, and Microsoft probably won't be able to steal that and force Sony out of the market like Sony did to Sega. Thus, Sony has a good base for the PS4, and is a good position to release something that will focus on their home-entertainment base without telling consumers what they want. Thus, I see Sony releasing in 2011 to a lot of fanfare, doing extremely well in Japan and taking back much of its strength in Europe.

Nintendo is the hardest to read because I don't think Nintendo will replicate its strategy from this generation. Nintendo brought back a lot of old gamers, and made a lot of people suddenly start caring about gaming, and that's great, but Microsoft and Sony are going to be following Nintendo closely now. Most of the people who are resistent to Nintendo's controls are the established and entrenched hardcore, an audience that is shrinking. Most people who prefer Microsoft/Sony say, "I like the idea behind the Wii, but Nintendo doesn't have the games I like" or "I like the idea behind the Wii, but I want better graphics." Next-gen, Microsoft and Sony will be introducing more motion control, and thus a lot of people who bought Wiis will be migrating to Sony/Microsoft if Nintendo doesn't change its strategy. Nintendo mastered step one: gain a new audience. However, Nintendo needs to change its strategy to keep that audience.

One thing we've learned from the console wars: keep doing the same thing except bigger, and you lose. Nintendo tried that with the N64, and bombed. Sega tried that with the Saturn, and bombed. Sony tried that with the PS3, and bombed. If Nintendo tries to keep its blue-ocean strategy, its new gamers will be content with their Wiis, and the old gamers will migrate to the affordable X3 or PS4 (or also be content with their Wiis).

After all, a lot of the non-technophiles who bought the Wii bought it because it wasn't like any other experience, and it was visceral and immediately enjoyable. These people are less likely to shell out anout $250 for the next Nintendo console when the Wii is still doing what they wanted.

In this way, Nintendo has put itself in a bit of a difficult place. However, its going to end this generation in a really strong place, and will have a lot of R&D money at its disposal. Maybe it'll come out with something truly phenomenal, and really innovate again. But Sony and Microsoft are going to infringe on Nintendo's territory a bit, and Nintendo needs to be ready. I think the fact that the Sixaxis was released after Nintendo unveiled itscontroller will keep Nintendo from becoming complacent, though.

However, Nintendo might refocus on portability. It's possible, as Japan has become a mostly portable society: Japan's most popular websites are designed for cell use. Will the rest of the world follow that trend? It's an interesting question to ponder, and Nintendo, with their focus on affordability and casual audiences is in a unique position to capitalise on that market. Technology has gone from big to small, from the mainframe to the laptop (desktops get a smaller and smaller market share each year). Is Japan ahead of us in this sense? Will we follow Japan's trend?

But now I'm getting much, much too far into the hypothetical. I apologise. Regardless, if there's one advantage Nintendo will have going into the next generation, it's the domination of the handheld market, and that's something Nintendo needs to capitalise on if it wants to dominate the next generation as well as this one.

Nintendo can't afford to wait until after Microsoft and Sony have released their new consoles, though, as Microsoft and Sony will take a lot of Nintendo's innovation. Nintendo needs to release around the same time as Sony and Microsoft, providing a console that is able to meet people's technological expectations while improving upon the Wii's innovation.

Therefore, I see all three consoles releasing in 2011. However, it's possible that Microsoft and Sony will try to release in 2010: Sony would try to re-gain its market, and Microsoft would try to steal Nintendo's. I think this would be a really dumb move, though, as a lot of Nintendo's current market won't be buying another console right away, and Sony needs time to really research a new strategy that will allow them to re-court the eclectic gamer--still, it's a move they might make. If they do, don't expect Nintendo to wait long to respond, though: Nintendo can't afford to have technologically superior consoles with Nintendo's innovations built-in.

Steve 3.2 (on 02 December 2007)

Interesting ideas, but I expect to see everyone come out around the same time - 2011. While HD still doesn't matter to the masses as much as MS and Sony hoped it would, it will become more and more important over the next couple of years. And that will make the Wii look more and more dated.

In taking from Apple's play book and copying their own from their portable lineup, I would expect a few incremental Wii system upgrades (and we're not just talking colors) over the next few years. You could call next year's DVD playing system Wii 1.1. And expect a model with more storage space sometime maybe a year after that. And I wouldn't rule out an 'HD-like' Wii 1.5 in 2010. (It'll use a scaler chip similar to what the 360 has today.) Nintendo will drop GameCube support from the full Wii 2 system. Unless HD drives come down in price to be in parity with DVD ones, expect Nintendo to continue to rely of the cheaper technology. As for the controllers, you already have a new one coming out -- the Wii Balance Board. Of course I hope they don't go overboard with all of these things. I don't want to have a huge pile of controllers sitting next to the damn thing.

MS will definitely not play the performance game again. They were never able to decrease the cost of the original Xbox enough to make a profit. And they got burned to the tune of $1B this time around due to 'bleeding edge' design. Following Nintendo's success, MS will 'pull a Wii' and come out with an Xbox 540 for the lack of a better term. (1.5 times 360) Expect Live to continue to be the best online service but free by the time the next system comes out. If there is no clear winner or compromise in the HD race by this point, expect MS to ship the 360 with an HD DVD drive.

Sony... well, um, at this point it looks bleak, but don't think that they aren't going to give up without a huge fight. They have the entertainment properties and software development studios to make things happen. The race is going to get a lot closer in 2008, but I still don't think the PS3 will pass the 360 is sheer installed base then or possibly ever. They'll be a solid number two in Japan and will eventually overtake the 360 in Europe but will remain in third in the US. Back to what the PS4 will look like, expect Sony to also focus on improvements to the PS3 platform versus a total shift to something different. While still expensive to build at the moment, the costs will eventually come down as they typically do. They will also continue to support Blu-ray or it's successor assuming that the format wars are still going on and Blu-ray hasn't lost.

ixaarii (on 02 December 2007)

Sri Lumpa: brilliant post! Obviously you know & understand a lot about the hardware ! A lot of admiration! Also I particularly loved your point about ps4 backward compatibility, i have never seen that side of things so clearly until spelled it out for me. Thank you! It seems now that Sony's hand is forced to go improoved cell with ps4.

I must however disagree with your views on the Wii. I subscribe to welshbloke's views on the adoption of HD by 2009 (maybe 2010?) and MS/Sony products entering the living room as more than just consoles (downloads, media, interoperability with a wealth of devices ranging from PSP to cameras & hdds, video playback centers...). While I agree with you that Wii2 will only go 720p as that's good enough and with a wider profit, I do think that comparisons between the Wii & ps2 are not valid. They are in completelly different situations. While they may be selling similarly now, the Wii is filling a need at a pricepoint, but the ps2 generation was all quite close, meaning that top titles could go multiplatform, and the ps2 was top-ish hardware even years after launch while Wii doesn't get some of the most praised/anticipated games due to hardware limiations even in it's launch year, and this will get worse over time. For this reason I believe Wii sales will drop much more sharply in the years to come inviting a Wii2 that can do all the multiplatforms & ports while keeping the Wii audience.

I really don't know about ps3/xbox360 introducing a motion controller until next gen though... from sixaxis to rumble is fine because it doesn't really change the input, just the experience, and even like this we can see sony isn't rushing to put it in the box default, while a wii-esque motion control would be a major change and so I can't see it as anything more than an extra addon optional peripheral, and peripherals even if they had the success of the ps eye will still not have the mass impact of a default built in component.

welshbloke (on 02 December 2007)

The PS2 was not up against the world of HD the Wii is in addition sales of software do not reflect the manic clamour for the actual device itself. It would seem the majority of owners own 3 titles Play, Sports and one other.

Whilst I do not regard it as a fad and history is always helpfull. This is not directly comparable to the previous generation.

Unfortunately we will have to wait another 2 years before we get any real indication one way or another.

Sri Lumpa (on 01 December 2007)

Damn, VgChartz ate the end of my comment. Here it is:

Also, to those who think that the Wii is a fad look at this graph:
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=115

That's right, the Wii has a very similar curve to the PS2 only some 30 weeks ahead of it (which could be explained by the Wii's worldwide launch within a month as compared to the PS2's staggered launch). But whereas the PS2 was up against the Dreamcast in its first year the Wii is up against both the much stronger Xbox360 AND the successor to last gen winner, the PS3. So don't delude yourself into thinking that the Wii will drop off from that kind of success to Gamecube levels as such a turnaround has never happened in the console world before.

To Stranne:

Thanks, one does one's best. I think that the problem both with the OP and the (badly) linked article is that they go way overboard in dream engineering their next-gen system.

It's a bit like the 50's futurist that foresaw flying cars and holidays on the Moon for the year 2000. While it will happen eventually in some shape they were way too optimistic on the timeline.

stranne (on 01 December 2007)

@Sri Lumpa,

Good one. Better read than the OP in fact.

welshbloke (on 01 December 2007)

Of the 3 consoles fighting it out this generation I would say it would be the Wii that will be the first to release a new model. I still see the Wii as a system with a shelf life that will see its dramatic current sales drop sharply. I just do not see the HD revolution being ignored and it is my opinion and the software sales appear to bear this out that the Wii just gathers dust once the novelty has worn off in a lot of homes. This will likely happen next year as the other consoles become cheaper but certainly 2009 which is why I cannot see it ever selling over 100 million consoles even with its current sales.

I do not see either Sony or Microsoft rushing out to bring another machine to market especially as I expect them to both be doing well with close to 50 50 split of the Next Gen market share. I do expect them to be working on a new console preparing it in the background but almost certainly within a media blackout until sales start to drop off or a as yet unseen force warrants it.

I have said before that both these systems have what they need to keep them fresh for a number of years. The introduction of the network capabilities now being fully utilised and the continued uptake of faster network connection across the globe make these machines more able to keep up with the times.

I have also said in the past that this generation will also not be afraid to step slightly outside the general concept of what is considered a “console” with changes to the setup. This will mostly likely take the form of HD DVD drives and HDD required in the case of Microsoft. The advantages that the Wii currently has with the motion system will almost certainly be duplicated in the other consoles successfully during the lifetime of the consoles.

The Wii has the ability to upset this balance though by brining out the Wii 2 before the bubble bursts capturing the Wii market share but timing will be critical.

leo-j (on 01 December 2007)

PS4 in 2010..

just 2 more years.

Sri Lumpa (on 01 December 2007)

Whether the PS4 CPU is Cell derived or not it will sport more than one general-purpose core at a similar or slightly higher speed than the 3.2GHz of the 360/PS3. It is very unlikely to be at 5GHz as there is a reason why Intel stopped the GHz race that they started against AMD (the increase in Ghz all but stopped in the last 4 years as compared to the 4 years before that) and that reason is the thermal barrier that faster CPU's where hitting, making cooling too much of a hassle and making multi-core CPU's a more promising avenue of progress.

It is also the reason why the 360 and PS3 CPU's are at 3.2GHz with in-order cores while the G5's in Macs did not go that fast; it is harder to make more complicated (out of order) CPU's faster as the extra logic makes them hotter. An in-order CPU can go faster because it uses less logic gates and thus produces less heat.

So I expect both X3 and PS4 CPU's to have similar cores to each other (in-order PPC-derived) with similar speeds to this gen (maybe a bit faster) but more of them. PS4 might either have 7 SPE's for easy BC or more if Sony keep believing in the Cell or forego them completely in favor of more general-purpose cores.

If the PS4 does not have a Cell derived processor inside you can most likely kiss PS3 BC goodbye as emulating the SPE's in software would be at least as hard as emulating the PS2 would be and there would be less incentive (due to less games due to PS3's lower sales).

If they forego using a Cell family processor but still provide BC it would probably be like the 360 BC, with new binaries compiled for the new processor and I would expect multiplatform (PS3/360) games to have better compatibility due to them having SMP code for the 360 version that would be easier to port than PS3 exclusives that would only have code using mainly the SPE's as in that case the PS4 processor would be closer to the 360 processor than to the Cell.

They both will have around 2GByte of memory and a hard drive (the size of which depends of what is cheaper at the time, probably 250-500Gb), PS3 will have Blu-Ray again.

Why? Because PS1 used CD's way after they became mass-market, PS2 used DVD's just as they were becoming mass market, creating a synergy between them and PS3 used Blu-Ray before it was mass market, making it more expensive and I cannot imagine Sony making PS4 even more expensive by using a new format that is even more cutting edge and thus more expensive than Blu-Ray was at the PS3 launch.

Both will launch at approximatively the same time (within 14 months) and for 350 USD or less for the main model.

Whether the Wii has a 6 year or 7-8 year run before its successor arrives depends on whether MS and Sony's consoles include a Wii-like motion controller (and sixaxis-like motion sensing, while better than nothing, does not cut it) with each console sold (whether that is the only controller or in adjunction to another more classic controller). If they don't these consoles' extra power will mean as much to the Wii's success as the 360 and PS3's extra power mean to it NOW (that is squat/zilch/zero/nil/...) and it will thus free Nintendo from having to follow their competitor's launch closely and let them launch 2 or even 3 years after X3 and PS4.

If either of X3 or PS4 does include Wii-like motion sensing along with hardware 2-3x more powerful than 360/PS3 AND a 300USD launch price it would provide enough competition to the Wii to force Nintendo to launch at most a year after them to stay competitive, with a beefed up Wii with 720p support but no 1080p support.

Why no 1080p? Because both 360 and PS3 are powerful enough to run most full-featured games (that is with expansive environment like lair/HS/GTA and unlike a Tennis game that only display a court and close surroundings) at 720p but neither is powerful enough to comfortably run them at 1080p (i.e. the PS3 can run Lair at 1080p but with a lot of difficulty as shown with the framerate drops; later games will be better but will be pushing the PS3 very hard to do so and unless PS3 sales really take off outside of the Xmas season there will be less and less incentive to do so) and I expect the N6 to be of similar power to them and I expect Nintendo to limit it to 720p so that games can achieve a good framerate easily (X3 and PS4 should be able to do 1080p with good framerate easily).

I expect the N6 to also have a dual-core (at least) in-order processor with a 1-1.4Ghz clock and a GPU similar to Hollywood but faster, with more TEV and more cache.

N6 memory would likely be between 256 and 640Mbyte with even heavier use of T-1 type memory (Nintendo just loves using this type of memory), a few Gbytes of flash RAM and HD-DVD or Blu-Ray drive depending on price (N6 is unlikely to play movies so it doesn't matter who won the movie war, only who is cheapest to incorporate in N6 and future consoles while offering enough storage space and I guess HD-DVD by being a standard format probably will have a leg up over the proprietary Blu-Ray).

Also the gap between the N6 and the 360/PS3 will be much smaller than this gen as the MS/Sony arms race is proving to be a pyrrhic victory when compared to the Wii.

Also, to those who think that the Wii is a fad look at this graph:
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=115

That's right, the Wii has a very similar curve to the PS2 only some 30 we

regin2005 (on 01 December 2007)

Very interesting read!

stranne (on 01 December 2007)

Also, I think the RAM estimates are off. I'd say 2GB for X720/PS4. RAM will still be expensive by then.

stranne (on 01 December 2007)

Sony surely will go with an improved Cell in PS4. Faster, more cores and larger local storage for the SPUs. As a bonus, they get easy BC with the PS3. PS2 etc BC will be history in all models by then though.

As for the clock speeds, even 4GHz will be hard. I'd say it's way more cost effective to go with more cores than higher clock.

snooty89 (on 01 December 2007)

I do not see MS getting rid of games on discs. There is something to be said for physically buying something and holding it in your hands. Maybe that is just me, but I like the fact that I can go out and buy the limited edition of Bioshock and get a cool Big Daddy along with it. This strategy would limit Halo4 to only having one edition. I don't know how well this would go over, but I have owned the Xbox and 360 and this would turn me away from them. I could see them offering both download and disc sales with the download being a bit cheaper though.

ShastaMasta (on 01 December 2007)

sony will be this gen's saturn. I will be successful in 1 market, respectable in one and largely ignored i the 3rd.

misterd (on 30 November 2007)

Good read. The tech specs are beyond me, but the changes in direction tend to make sense. However, I wonder if you think that MS and Sony will attempt to mimic or best the Wiimote, and if so how?

And I just don't see Wii2 launching 2 years after the 720 and PS4. The Wii is already a gen behind in technology, and Nintendo won't want to cede the spotlight to their compeitors for 24 months. It would seem to me that they could relatively easily forgo the controller upgrade and launch a "current gen" level system in 2010 (the "DS Lite" approach) in order to keep pace with any early system releases.

I also don't see Sony abandoning the PS3 after just 4 years, as that would be admitting failure. It seems that they have finally found a combination of specs and price that are working for them (though we'll get a better idea after the holidays), so I think the danger period has largely been averted (they still have a chance to be this gen's GameCube, but at least they won't be the DreamCast or Jaguar).

jv103 (on 30 November 2007)

I think something important too watch is the Amazon reader thing. I forgot the name and I'm too lazy to look it up, but the idea is all your books are digital format via a reader (this idea has been around for years) but it never has taken off. Why? Well i think personally, that I like owning tangible objects. It's there, it exists. If they lowered the prices too discount shipping packaging and manufacturing then I might go digital. Otherwise, when you own something, you want to see what you own. That's my theory anyway.

tkjinak (on 30 November 2007)

Considering microsoft is in bed with toshiba on the hd-dvd thing, there is not much chance that they realease a discless drive. 2010 wil be a time when active buyer hd tv penetration is starting to approach 80-90 percent. The Hd=dvd drive will be something most will be able to use and want to use as we will also have lots and lots of budget titles.

tk1989 (on 30 November 2007)

I dont think the printing idea is a viable idea... wouldnt it just lead to piracy? If someone gets ahold of one of those machines, then they will have a relatively easy time creating many many copies of certain games, and selling them.

Mnementh (on 30 November 2007)

First on the release dates: It seems unlikely, that the Sony4 will be released 2010, that's too fast. ixarii dated the Nintendo6 at 2009/10, same reason, way too early. And history says, the winning console has the longer life, so Nintendo may the last of the three contenders to enter generation 8. So I say Sony and Microsoft release their next console at the end of 2011, Nintendo follows 2012.

The idea of a Microsoft-SKU without media-drive only for downloadable content is very interesting and could be successful. No optical drive means the box can be smaller and makes lesser noise. That means the clockspeed shouldnt increase to much: Higher clockspeeds mean more heat, that result in bigger and noisier boxes. I would go with more cores instead of increasing the clockspeed.

Interesting read overall.

siren (on 30 November 2007)

I am sorry if some people read that as forcing online distribution, that is incorrect. I clearly stated that retail boxed games would still be available and even the printed games would work on any system. The only problem will be if you want to re-sell the game.

As far as the names I used, I was primarily refering to the system number than the actual expectation for the name of the system. X3 implies the 3rd Microsoft console. N6 is the 6th Nintendo console.

Given Nintendo, the system will probably have an entirely new name and I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony either change the brand name or tack something else onto PlayStation other than a 4 for their next system.

In regards to costs, I can definately see some of the points with printing being more expensive than mass production, but consider the following. A lot of retailers stocked up on copies of the last Sonic title expecting some serious sales. When it failed to sell, they ended up with close to 500,000 game copies out there that no one wanted. Sega had already made their money selling them to retailers, so they were fine. Unfortunately for retailers, they had already spend in excess of $15,000,000 on the copies.

For every game like Sonic there are easily dozens more that the retails get stuck with a hundred thousand or so laying around.

If a retailer could focus on purchasing just real expected sales (read as pre-orders) and be able to print out not only new releases, but all games for a system since launch; they stand to make a lot more money at significantly lower cost.

There are multiple ways this could be handled and yes there are a lot of problems with it on paper. But if you consider just half of the challenges that go into making a game console and platform these days, this wouldn't be all that much harder and it provides significant benefits to the retailer.

The hardest thing would be printing the manual. For these, the retailers could keep a supply of manuals around for much cheaper and maintain the ability to print little instruction cards when they run out. While this may upset some gamers, most would be happy to be able to get any game for their platform the moment that want it. Hell, most of us never even read the manual.

Printing the disc would go quite fast and if the system to do so is built correctly, it would be virtually fool proof. It would print the label directly onto the disc following burning. Then the store clerk just takes the disc, takes the printed cover for the case, shoves them both into a case and lets the consumer go.

Do I think this will definately happen? Nope, but I do think it is the direction we are heading and I think with a little corporate brainstorming and some deep thought and focus group research you could refine it into a usable system for at a minimum handling titles that are no longer stocked.

Bodhesatva (on 30 November 2007)

Excellent write up Siren. Reasonable estimates, good for discussion. Thanks.

skyman_1981 (on 30 November 2007)

I think that this article is a big waste of time. He or she is adding nothing new. All that they are stating is the obvious. To launch before anyone else usually means that the latter party will have more power. ps3 does have higher cpu calculations but have a much inferior gpu. The first gen Xbox was more powerful but did that trend follow this gen? No. Also I do believe MS will push DD (digital distribution) but it won't be mandatory. More like an option. One of the key components the writer failed to realize is that NO game company will force you to have ONLINE access to play ALL of your games. That won't be around til Next-next gen or even later. sony will probably include blu-ray in the ps4 for bc issues. Have multiple sku's, one with blu and one without. sony have always preferred optical disc drives and will probably follow suit just like Nintendo always favored cartridges. I think development will be a lot easier with less cores and more power (ghz) but anything is possible. I do know that the X-Team are hunting and shopping for the next processors in the X(fill in your number here) as of a few months ago. As for Nintendo, how much more motion sensing can you do that the Wii can't already do? If Nintendo follows that trend, it will probably go VR (virtual reality) and we all know from that experience from the VB (virtual boy). The problem with Nintendo is that with "gimmicks" there are risks when you use something that is unknown. They caught a lucky break with the Wii. I guess they had to break even after the VB flop.
As a closer, NextGen will be all the more interesting. This console race will be a lot closer than the lastgen when sony dominated. This nexgen, everyone will be on more even grounds.

ixaarii (on 30 November 2007)

A fascinating read. I don't see things the same way, but loved the read and made me think about stuff. I don't think things will go digital only: it may sound cool, but consoles are a boxed product, a simple thing meant to simplify life, and for that it makes sense to have a "thing" that is the game that you plug in and you play, no waiting for downloads... indeed for those with internet downloading may be more confortable, but I don't think losing on all the people with less/no internet is a sound decision. From what I understand the whole point of the Cell complications are cheaper production so once things get there I doubt it will be abandoned so quickly. Also I would expect manufacturers to try to stick longer to a system to reap the benefits, particularly as it becomes more a problem of more games/content not as big of more technology, though that is always good.

My personal expectations for the future are more on the lines of:

Wii 2 - 2009-2010 : again launched at a profit but affordable price, possibly with slightly motion improoved controls, but with hardware on par with ps3/xbox360, possibly a HD player if it's cheap enough.

PS4 - 2012, cell architecture extended with more cores but not revolutionized, full compatibility with ps3 this time. I don't think they' cut out sooner to compete with MS both to have time to recoup losses and because it is their chance to reap the living room benefits with a centerpiece device at a low price capitalizing on games that are more a distribution system like say Singstar and Rock band type games where the game is a shell and the song downloads fuel. similarly with content for other games.

X3 - 2010-2011 - a great chance to take the technology lead again, but i completely agree that this time xbox360 wont' be abandoned but instead kept on as the second/low end xbox system.

From this I expect the hardware pusher consoles to launch in more alternating fashion: instead of both syncronizing with a simultaneous next gen, alternating being the "top tech" system, leading to the possibility for early adopters to get a new top system every 3 years while for the mainstream longer 6-8 year lifecycles can make sense.

those are my predictions ... looking forward to how our predictions will look at the end of 2008 :D Thanks for a great article and a fascinating read!

kingme71 (on 30 November 2007)

You make alot of good points. I agree with some comments that digital download will probably not be as advanced by then. Music is still selling well in CD format.

I would push the date for new Sony/MS hardware to about 2011-2012. Sony claims the PS3 will last 10 years, but they will be seen as last gen if MS comes out with something in a few years. Their only chance would be to severly underprice MS's X3 with the PS3 to appeal to the cost conscious, as most hardcore gamers would not want to stick with old gen hardware. I don't see Sony coming out with a PS4 by 2010 though. The PS3 is just getting started and '08 looks to be a good year for them which means in only 1-2 years of hitting its stride it would be dead... seems too soon.

It could be possible MS does get something out in 2010, however if they pull another rush job on the X3 and wind up with similar HW issues, they will be toast. I imagine they will check and recheck before rushing to market.

The Wii is an anomaly. Nintendo is not in an arms war with Sony/MS to get the next big thing out. They took a risk and it paid off in spades, plus they are making money on Wii sales. I don't see a rush for them to get a new Wii out, so 2012 looks to be a good timeframe for them.

bdbdbd (on 30 November 2007)

Thanks Siren, that was a good read.

Even that everything you said, may happen, i don't believe Nintendo using multi-processor anymore, and besides, the GC/Wii design is clever in a way, that GPU and CPU can work as co-processor for each other. Nintendos purpose is to keep it simple and costs low. They may have the tech ready for 2,5 GHz processor, atleast at the time of Wiis development, there were pretty strong rumors about Nintendo designing 2,5 GHz processor, and and high-speed GPU (i assume, that you were thinking the same), so i think they more likely tweak more clockspeed and stick to single processor.

I don't also believe in "printing in store", think about the costs, that retailer would have (although it's not free to keep the games in shelves), that would require personnel to burn discs. Unless, when sales start to decline, you start the semi-digital distribution. And the problem also is, that importers would lose too much money.

8 core, 5 GHz, CPU for PS4 in 3 years sounds a little too unbelievable, unless they use Cell (which is ready and they currently try to figure out how to tweak more power from it and manufacture it cheap).

Definately not impossible, but i don't think that next generation is a power race, it's more likely a race in cost effectiveness (HW/SW) and new features (innovation, services).

z64dan (on 30 November 2007)

Also, another thing. I believe the Wii2 will be released in 2010 or 2011, not 2012. Nintendo will release another totally backwards-compatible console thats capable of many new controller types or something else innovative, but you can still play GC/Wii games (maybe downloadable?) with no problems.

It will be as powerful as 360/PS3 are right now, but $250.

z64dan (on 30 November 2007)

I honestly think that Sony/Microsoft will revert back to the single-SKU approach to consoles.

Can you imagine the Wii doing better with 2 SKU's? I couldn't. I think Microsoft/Sony will realize that, for the mass market, Multiple SKU's are a bad idea. Sure, technophiles love them, because "Hur hur i got the best 360", or whatever.

SlorgNet (on 30 November 2007)

There's no way the next generation of consoles will stick with current-gen DVD. It will be next-gen of some kind or other - most likely BluRay, due to some inherent technical advantages derived from the physics of the laser. Bandwidth speeds simply aren't increasing fast enough to offset the vast amounts of data you would need for high-definition TV.
Consoles have a life-cycle of five to ten years, so we're talking 2011 for a high-definition version of the Wii, and then 2013 or 2014 for Microsoft/Sony.
Consoles are becoming key centers of user-created media production, and the hardware is going to drastically evolve to reflect this.
It's possible some plucky East Asian firm will move into the console biz by 2012. Maybe Samsung will start selling handhelds, or maybe some Chinese startup will launch a full-scale console. The more the merrier!

FreeTalkLive rocks! (on 30 November 2007)

Interesting ideas.

I expect the N6 to be stronger than the PS3 and to have improved motion sensing, as you suggested. It will also integrate heavily with the DS or next version of it.

The Xbox will likely not rely on digital distribution as much as you indicate. I don't think the average retail worker at Wal-Mart is going to be able to handle the process you mentioned.

The next Sony sounds like the best system and would be fun to get a couple years after launch. However, Sony has promised to support the PS3 until at least 2015 so we will have to see how your prediction goes.

I predict PSP next will be a joke :)

FinalEvangelion (on 30 November 2007)

Do you not think the "Xbox 720" will ship with an HD-DVD drive? I would think the cost difference between HD DVD and DVD would be negligible by that point, seeing the trend in HD DVD prices.

Final-Fan (on 30 November 2007)

The one thing I absolutely disbelieve is the "stores burn their own games and print their own labels, covers, and documentation" idea. Aside from my principled opposition to the idea (say goodbye to small retailers, that equipment will be expensive), I just don't think it's workable at all.

The quality of the manuals etc. would very probably not be as good, and the printing process couldn't possibly be fast enough for "while-you-wait", necessitating stockpiling by individual stores, which negates the whole purpose. Unless the industry would be willing to impose a waiting period on games -- come back tomorrow and we'll have it ready? I don't see it.

It would also add cost to the process -- mass producing is always cheaper, and you'd still have to ship the same materials out to the stores.

The individualized ID, though, sounds like a reasonable idea and could be very doable (I don't know enough about the current manufacturing process to make a statement on the last part).

Globox82 (on 30 November 2007)

If "Wiimote" becomes standard i am not gamer any more. I hate that crap.

siren (on 30 November 2007)

I really doubt that we will see the next Xbox go 350/450 or 400/500. If there is one lesson learned this generation it is that price is important.

As it is, the $100 - $300 price increase this generation on the part of the 360 and PS3 has been a major turnoff for a lot of consumers. Going with a 300/400 price point and giving a $50 price reduction in the first 18 months would be optimum.

Part of the reason for the 2010 release is that it makes for a very strong competitive model.

If you release every 5 years it gives you a substantial increase in power allowing the new system to shine. While 6 years would give more, it would allow Sony to more easily launch side by side without having to concern themselves with cutting the PS3 short. By launching after 5 years, they put Sony inbetween a rock and a hard place.

Launch early (4 years) or give Microsoft a 1 year headstart again.

This is very similar to the position MS was in with the Xbox. A system losing a ton of money and not likely to cost reduce much below $200 production costs and the prospect of being 1 year behind Sony again if they held out for the typical 5 years (MS expected Sony to launch at the roughly 6 year mark in March of 2006 or late 2005).

FriendlyGamer (on 30 November 2007)

From a programmer point of view I believe Sony will Stick with the CELL. It may be harder to program for now, but the tools are out now and they are greatly helping us realizing the potential of this CPU.

Now from my personnal point of view. CELL is easily upgradable to multi-cpu ( PS4 with 4 CELL at 4ghz+ anyone ? :) ), and is becoming cheap to produce... very fast !

For me, PS3 has shown the way to true multi processing. We won't be able to dodge it this time.

Also, another bold prediction... RAYTRACING on the PS4 will be a viable solution.

mike_intellivision (on 30 November 2007)

These ideas make sense for the most part. However, I don't think it would be wise for any system to go digital only.

Its my feeling that people playing console games don't want the hassels of PCs and all the problems that go along with dealing with those units. Also, requiring units to be connected to the Internet (as was posulated for the X3) could prevent those who do not have access to broadband (and many rural areas -- at least in the US -- will probably still be wanting reliable service in 2011) from playing the games. Furthermore, since gamestores make money off of software (especially used software), there might be a major reluctance to carrying a digital-only hardware product.

Mike from Morgantown

dschumm (on 30 November 2007)

I say you are a little overly optimistic on the timeframe. I think with the 360 doing well especially in NA we will see in X3 in 2011 not 2010. I agree the Sony's hand will be forced and they will show up the same year. 2012 is right on for the Wii because even Nintendo won't wait more than a year after the competition.

Performance wise I think you are right on but you may be overestimating the PS4. This is the only generation they have had the top hardware and it is the only one that failed. They may attempt to only match the X3 and count on the name of the Playstation brand and their non US support to boost them.

Price will be $250 for Wii2 with a game. X3 will be 350/450 or 400/500. PS4 will be the same.

While digital distribution is huge they wont dump the dvd drive in the cheap model. The demographic that buys the arcade is the one that is not online and is price sensitive. It would only save them a couple dollars anyway as the case has to stay the same. More likely is a premium model with a larger harddrive instead of the dvd-drive.

Sony and MS will do similar things and add motion control. Nintendo's next handheld will be the blueprint for the Wii2. I expect their interconnectivity to be the focus for the next generation home console. Nintendo will want to leverage DS sucess to keep home consoles relavent in Japan. The smilarity between a Wiimote and a Gameboy Micro has me intrigued. Imagine a DS micro with motion sensitivity.

ssj12 (on 30 November 2007)

Siren - remember that Intel made a 50 core prototype. That was amazing.

siren (on 30 November 2007)

Lightbleeder, it doesn't matter if the PS3 gets support or increased sales. It a matter of fiscal responsibility and remaining competitive that will push the PS4 release up.

If Sony is barely breaking even, or still losing money at $250 - $300 in 2010 with the PS3, then they will have little choice but to release a PS4 to compete alongside the new Xbox hardware coming out at roughly the same price point.

There is no way they could compete with generation old hardware at the same price as new hardware.

siren (on 30 November 2007)

Remember, these 8 cores will be castrated cores. They are not full cores like what users are familiar with coming from the likes of Intel and AMD.

That being said, the 5ghz prediction was the toughest one for me to leave in. Several times during editting I adjusted that down to around 4.2ghz but at the end I decided to go with my gut on this one.

lightbleeder (on 30 November 2007)

I personally don't believe PS4 will come in 2010. I believe developers will learn how to make good use of the CELL and the PS3 will have a huge boost in Japan and Europe, with US getting a slight boost when AAA titles come out.

jv103 (on 30 November 2007)

5Ghz with 8 cores by 2010? The author does realize that 2010 is only 3 year away right? I'm just having a hard time believing those clock speeds. The hard-drives digital content makes sense. Ram is cool. But 5ghz w/ 8 cores? Intel has a quad core that will be capable of close to 4ghz but I don't know if More's Law will get that to double and increase clock speed to 5ghz without making a comp super hot. Aside from that the only chip I know being talked about having 8 cores and running 16threads (hyper-threaded) is intel's forthcoming Nehalem. I don't think it will be running at 5ghz though, aside from that if this technology is going to be top of the line 2008-2009, how are we going to only pay 300-400 dollars for a chip that by itself will cost ~1000?

Arkk (on 30 November 2007)

Very interesting read. I, personally, can't wait for the digital era of video game purchases to begin. I never trade my games in or buy used games anyways, so stuff stored on a big HDD is exactly what I am looking for. Bring all of the downloadable movies while your at it!

kitler53 (on 30 November 2007)

well written article, i enjoyed reading it.

superchunk (on 30 November 2007)

wow. interesting read.

Based on how the gen is playing out, his theories have a lot of merit.

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