DFC Brief: Record Game Sales in 2007 Are Just the Start for Videogames - News

by VGChartz Staff , posted on 29 May 2008 / 1,386 Views

The following is a press release emailed from DFC. DFC Intelligence’s research services provide detailed strategic analysis of the interactive entertainment industry.

Record Game Sales in 2007 Are Just the Start for the Soaring Video Game Business

May 29, 2008

Led by the PlayStation 2 (PS2), the “128-bit” generation of video game systems has reached a record global installed base that is expected to exceed 180 million units. Of course, the PS2 was the best-selling game system ever. With high hardware prices and a slow start for most of the current generation of game systems (Microsoft Xbox 360, Nintendo Wii, PlayStation 3), DFC Intelligence had originally forecasted that it would not be until 2012 that the installed base for the current generation started to match that of the 128-bit systems.

However, 2007 was a record year on all fronts, as sales of PC and video games reached an all-time high and overall worldwide industry sales soared over the $50 billion mark. DFC Intelligence forecasts that sales for the current generation of systems will pass the 180 million mark in 2011.

Ironically, a slowing economy can actually help the game industry. Video games provide a high rate of entertainment return and high gas prices actually encourage people to stay home and play games. The latest DFC Intelligence forecasts predict that all three systems (360, Wii, PS3) will have a solid installed base. Nevertheless, it looks like the Nintendo Wii will be the overall installed base leader. The Wii has enormous momentum and appeals to the broadest audience.

In doing retail checks over Memorial Day weekend, the item that everyone was asking about was the just launched Wii Fit. However, none of the retailers we visited had any in stock. It is because of this type of demand that DFC believes in 2008, the Wii could set a record for most console systems sold in a single year.

Of course, many of the biggest games are not even coming out for the Wii. Halo 3 and Gears of War were exclusive to the Xbox 360. The upcoming Metal Gear Solid 4 is only going to be on the PlayStation 3. The biggest title of 2008, Grand Theft Auto IV, is only available for the PS3 and Xbox 360. In other words, for many third-party publishers the more important race is between the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.

Two years ago about this time, DFC Intelligence asked the question, “ Could Sony Go From First to Worst?” At the time, our less than definitive answer was: maybe. We argued that much would depend on the execution of Sony and its competitors over the next few years. Two years later, DFC can say with more confidence that we do not think the PlayStation 3 will be the third place system. DFC forecasts that the PS3 will overtake the Xbox 360 in 2009 and finish in a strong second place behind the Wii.

The price of the PlayStation 3 has come down to a reasonable level and the software lineup is finally starting to look fairly strong. Most importantly, Sony was able to keep the PlayStation 2 installed base active. For its recently ended fiscal year, Sony Corp. reported that hardware unit sales of the PS2 were down by 7%. From our perspective we would say they were ONLY down by 7%. This is amazing for a system that launched in 2000. The PS2 managed to outsell both the PS3 and Xbox 360 in 2007.

The sales performance of the PlayStation 3 has been less than stellar, but Sony has survived. The Xbox 360 was unable to take advantage of Sony’s struggles to build the type of large lead needed to maintain a long-term advantage. The PS3 survived the onslaught of AAA Xbox 360 titles that hit the market from late 2006 through 2007. Halo 3 had great sales, but it did very little to enhance the Xbox 360’s overall position in the marketplace. The Xbox 360 is the system of choice for fans of high-action first-person shooter (FPS) games. However, for the 80%-plus of game consumers that DO NOT play FPS games, the Xbox 360 is not the system of choice.

In our upcoming Genre Forecasting report, we look at expected sales by platform based on genre. While the Wii may have the highest installed base, there are not expected to be any mega-hit FPS titles on the platform. The average FPS title is expected to have 60% higher sales on the Xbox 360 over the PS3 and over three times the sales of the average Wii FPS game.

The biggest uncertainty in forecasting the market five years from now is estimating the impact future, unannounced systems will have. In building our forecasts, DFC Intelligence has assumed that some new systems will launch in the 2011 to 2013 time frame. However, these forecasts are very hypothetical and are made under the assumption that a new generation of console systems will look very much like the past generation of game systems. This may not be the case, and right now we do not even know who the major players will be. How soon will Nintendo want to launch a new system with the Wii being so successful? Will Microsoft still want to stay in the game business given their losses? Is Sony really serious about pushing the PS3 to a ten year plus life cycle? Will new game systems just be an extension of the current game systems with some enhanced features and services? These are questions we are currently unable to answer.

One thing that is worth noting is that DFC has built in different models for how fast the current systems will be retired and how heavy consumer purchasing of software will be for each system. We call these factors respectively the active installed base and software tie ratio. The Xbox 360 has a high software tie ratio, but given technical problems among many early units is also has a fairly high retirement factor. The Wii has both a lower software tie-ratio and a higher than average retirement factor. On the other hand, one advantage with the PS3 is its durability and what is expected to be a fairly strong software tie-ratio in the long-term. For this reason, the DFC Intelligence forecasting model indicates that software sales for the PlayStation 3 will surpass software sales for the Wii in 2012. Of course, by this time, software sales for all systems are expected to be on the decline.

The biggest story over the next few years may be the declining overall importance of the console systems. Last year Sony’s biggest selling game system was the portable PSP. Meanwhile, the Nintendo DS blew out all records for game system hardware unit sales (portable or console) in a single year. From a pure revenue perspective, the biggest system for software sales in 2007 was the PC, if you include revenue generated from online services. Like we said, 2007 blew away sales records on all fronts. Right now it looks like 2008 will be even better.

43 Comments

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NintendoMonopoly (on 31 May 2008)

PS3 SW Sales>Wii SW Sales? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's completely improbable and goes against current trends. Either way, I expect the ps3, even though it will pass the 360, to be the least profitable system and the Wii to be the most profitable.

ZenfoldorVGI (on 30 May 2008)

I pretty much agree with that, and I see where you were coming from with the online games statement.

shio (on 30 May 2008)

@zenfoldorvgi

I meant online is a great way for developers to survive, with either their single-player or online games. With the new revenue schemes such as digital distribution, subscription-based, ad-based and microtransactions; both offline and online games can make more money than before.

I didn't mean online genres were the only way for developers, not even close. My favorite genres are Adventure and RPGs, both not online-oriented. Sam & Max, a popular adventure game (single-player), came out recently in episodic formats online, and probably got much more money than if they were releasing it only on boxed retail. Same thing for Stardock, with it's Galactic Civilizations franchise. Single-player games CAN prevail through online distribution.

Just like you said about developers trying to get deals from Sony/Microsoft, Crysis had made deals with hardware manufacturers such as Nvidia. Crysis's main revenue source was those deals, or else Crytek would never have pushed the graphics so far.

And if Crysis was a multiplatform release, then it would have sold more copies on 360 since 15million 360's vs 4million PC's that are able to run decently at the time. The PC version would still have made more money due to more money per PC copy sold, and the backdeals. Well, we can't be sure of it though.

However, if Crysis wasn't such a "game from the future", then they would have sold more copies on PC. I mean, if it weren't for the Nvidia deals, Crytek would never have released Crysis in such a state. Now, if Crytek are releasing games on consoles, we have yet to see if they're going to treat it as main platforms (à la Epic), or just a cheap cash-cow (à la Valve)

Epic have long ago turned to consoles, it wasn't recently. Unreal Engine 2 was made firstly for consoles, then PC. Gears of War was console-oriented, and UT3 was 'consolized', which pretty much made them lose near all of it's PC fanbase.

hunter_alien (on 30 May 2008)

Ive told you :D Handhelds will soon rule the market :D

bardicverse (on 30 May 2008)

@Retrasado - really? I wasn't aware of a USB upgrade on the way. That'd be excellent for such a strategy. Man, does that mean I'm going to need to upgrade my studio gear AGAIN? =)

Retrasado (on 30 May 2008)

@bardicverse
hmm.. that's an interesting idea. Another factor going for that strategy would be USB 3.0 w/ 4.8Gbit/sec (= 600MB/sec) transfer speeds. (I believe it's supposed to be done by 2010) That could download the entire content of a dual-layer BD in like 85 seconds...

Retrasado (on 30 May 2008)

@ Sulla
Second place will not be the same this gen as it was last gen. Last gen, second place was 22 million units vs 120 million units. (6x) This gen, second place will be 70-75 million units vs. a first place of 140-170 million (2-3x) I think it is entirely in the realm of possibility that the PS3 will sell 70-75 million units in its lifetime. (requiring average sales of 10 - 12 million units over a 7-year period. Though a lot depends on how well it does this Christmas season) But I can't see the Wii realistically selling more than 170 million units as, assuming the next gen starts in earnest in 2013, that would require average yearly sales of ~24.3 million units.

Just a note: The Wii will probably surpass this mark for at least one, possibly two years, but it will have to AVERAGE that for 7 years to hit 170 million. So, I'm not saying it can't pass that mark, as it probably will do that this year, but I can't see it averaging sales at that level for 7 years.

bardicverse (on 30 May 2008)

What people don't realize is that digital distribution can be done in other forms than downloads. Take a firewire hard drive, for example. Put a firewire port into a console, hook up a 500 GB HD, and you have faster access speeds than you would have off of optical media, with a lot less heat buildup inside the system. No laser, no internal HD, it'd be a breeze (no pun intended ) to build a high end system without wasting time on keeping the unit supercooled.

Back on the firewire hard drive. You can unplug the drive anytime you want, and have it embedded with a registered serial number. Take your drive to your local game dealer, they register your purchase online, and load the game onto the drive from their local server in the store. If your HD fails, they verify the failed HD serial number, authorize a new HD for your account, and you can get your games added back on, free of charge. Need more HD space? Buy another firewire HD drive, and you're all set.

I see this as the way that the industry will go, in addition to downloadable content. Optical media has one foot in the grave.

Before you go and say "but I like holding onto physical copies of games, movies, music, etc" just remember that all that manufacturing takes up resources (plastic is made from oil products, energy costs to run assembly lines). Also, by not having to spend money making "hard copies", developers/publishers can pass the savings from the process to the customer in the form of cheaper games. Also, videogames won't have to fight for shelf space, as they'd all just be digital, on the local servers. You won't have to worry about a game being sold out, or phased out due to age. It will always be there sitting on the server, waiting to be copied to your HD.

Of course, a 500GB FW HD is common these days, who's to say that a TB FW HD won't be common within the next 4 years? Or maybe even that a faster port connection, faster than firewire might be available by then?

ZenfoldorVGI (on 30 May 2008)

I think you know what I mean Shio, but your taking what I say out of context in order to argue against it. You said online gaming was the future. I didn't think you meant digital distribution, I thought you meant online games, the genre.

In a perfect, fair world, you almost have a strong point about PC matching up in exclusive single player games, to the consoles. However, in an imperfect world first party publishing is important and helps keep the consoles having a competitive exclusives list.

The PC does have the biggest casual audience. However, my casual arguement wasn't against the PC on the casual front, it was against your "online gaming is the future" statement. You took me out of context.

Also, the scares, and storylines, don't exist in the online gaming market, but again that goes back to my issue with your "the games of the future are online" statement. DD sure, but online genre games, no.

I think we totally agree on several major facets of this argument, but you refuse to admit that we agree. My points are this, and comment on these if you disagree, but I don't think you will:

Due to the increase in popularity and system specs of current gen consoles, payment directly from Sony/Microsoft, and increases in piracy, most expensive single-player games that once would have been PC exclusives are now multiplats.

A few companies who make very expensive single player games, like Crytek and Epic, have expressed concern with the rampant increase in piracy, which in turn has caused them start developing for the consoles.

Finally, revenue and game sales aren't the same thing. We don't have enough information to directly compare PC and Console games sales of similar games released in similar timeframes without cherrypicking. The revenue discussed in this article could very well be gross revenue, and it could also consist of 50 percent WoW subscriptions and TBC purchases for all we know. So we can't really determine exactly how games like Crysis would have sold were they released on PC and 360 at the same time. However, the smart money is on the 360 version selling much better than its PC counterpart all truths be told, since many people pirate the game, and others don't have the machines to even run it.

Shumver1 (on 30 May 2008)

@veggie and str8knox
i think by retirement factor they mean how soon the next version of a manufacturer's console will be released. because of the wii's lower technical specifications they expect it's successor to be released sooner hence the higher than average retirement factor.

shio (on 30 May 2008)

@zenfoldorvgi

And how many big-budget third-party single-player games have been released this generation on home consoles? I can only think of 2: MGS4, and maybe Dead Rising to a certain extent. MGS4 isn't 100% certain to be exclusive. The rest of the big-budget single-player games were from 1st or 2nd party studios.

As for big-budget single-player games on PC, there is: Crysis and Dragon Age is coming, and maybe Neverwinter Nights 2 and Company of Heroes to a certain extent. So tell me how consoles are doing better than PC on that regard?

Hell, even Capcom, a console developer/publisher, has decided to fully support PC this generation, with PC being the primary platform of development for their bigger games like Street Fighter IV, DMC4 and Bionic Commando.

You're still banging on Zelda MMO... The online revenue of PC is not only from MMO's. There is Digital Distribution that is increasing alot everyday (Steam grew 191% in the past year) and many DD services that help single-player games sales quite a bit (The Witcher is in a few of those services, though not on Steam yet).

"There is a massive casual audience that won't pay a monthly subscription for games."
PC has easily the biggest casual audience, so I'm not sure what's your point.

"There is a massive audience who like scares in their games, or storylines, or who like to escape the internet, just like the real world when they game."
Scares? S.T.A.L.K.E.R. and Penumbra.
Storylines? HA, that's one of the biggest advantage PC has over consoles: Check PC RPGs like The Witcher and NWN2: Mask of the Betrayer. Or better yet, just go play the dozens of games of the most Story-centric genre, Adventure, which is also mostly PC-centric.
Just because you don't want to play online games, that doesn't mean PC isn't any good. PC has a big amount of single-player games coming out everytime.

HCS (on 30 May 2008)

This ain't the last time we will hear from them. They will have a all new forecast next year. yawn...... and they were wrong before who's to say they will be right this time?

Sounds like some gibberish and people that don't know what their talking about.

These analyst are probably more often then not biased and fanboys themselves.

this generation is unpredictable.

Sullla (on 30 May 2008)

Eh... This report reads just like the one from DFC last year. In the 2007 report, they hedged every prediction with all sorts of conditions, and ended up saying almost nothing at all. I called them out on it then, and I'm calling them out again this year. What's the purpose of being an analyst if all you do is make extremely obvious statements that anyone could see? FishyJoe hit it right on the head: no matter what happens, they will claim that it was covered by one of their various projections, and take credit. Pretty shameless, if you ask me.

Overall, the content is mostly fine, just... blah. Vanilla. Anyone who visits this site regularly could have released that report. Two rather stupid points do jump out though:

The prediction that PS3 software will outsell Wii software "at some indeterminate future date" (2012) when every tracking agency on earth suggests the opposite. Yeah, nice work there chief.
"In other words, for many third-party publishers the more important race is between the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3." What a ridiculous statement to make. Every big third-party game is going to go to both platforms. 80-90% of the software library of these consoles is identical. The console "war" between the 360 and PS3 is one of the biggest farces in gaming history. I'm still waiting for everyone else to realize how completely pointless second place really is. (To wit: did it really matter that XBox sold 2m more units than Gamecube, when both were 100m behind PS2?)

ZenfoldorVGI (on 29 May 2008)

The PC isn't getting more flack than the Wii. That's simply not the case.

I have nothing against the PC, I'm just saying that Online games aren't the future of gaming, they are simply a genre.

I'm also saying that just because the PC makes the most software revenue, doesn't mean they sell the most current gen games.

Let me reitterate. Single player big-budget games are appearing as PC exclusives very rarely, compared to a few years ago. This isn't necessarily due to the PC's decline, but to the consoles assent.

My argument isn't weak, it's simply ideological. The data just isn't there for PC like it is for consoles, and we can't find many examples for direct comparisons, due mainly to launch windows often being far apart.

I do contend that games like Mirror's Edge probably wouldn't be developed exclusively for PC, since more and more PC exclusive developers are switching to consoles for money, not just from net revenue, but for payoffs from Microsoft and Sony to sweeten the deal.

Anecdotally, there is one PC exclusive that I really want to play, but haven't. That game is The Witcher. The Witcher is a great argument for PC gamers. It is one of the few current gen single player non-rts games on the PC that is excellent and exclusive. It trancends the argument that "PC games are for online." That's not necessarily the case, and that's the main problem I have with your argument.

Online games simply are not the only genre of the future. As long as online games aren't simply the the end all to gaming, then consoles will have a place, and PC will have competition.

Now, I wouldn't be opposed to most games having some sort of online component as an option. However, if you were talking about Zelda mmo instead of Zelda game, then that's not gonna be the way things play out.

My views are based around mostly developer claims and conversations on this forum from posters, but I'm not gonna be converted by articles like this who use the phrase "From a pure revenue perspective," when finding positive ways to refer to PC gamings performance.

The facts remain, however, that due to the increase in popularity and system specs of current gen consoles and increases in piracy, most games that once woulda been PC exclusives are now multiplats or not on PC at all, like the new Star Wars game from LucasArts.

PC gaming, I've been convinced by recent conversation, is actually quite healthy and invigorated, however when an article tries to incorrectly represent its presence as the dominant force in the gaming industry, I gotta call BS, just like I would do when Microsoft does it.

Online games are the future. So are single player, big budget games. As long as Nintendo is in the business that'll be the case. However, I don't think their 3rd party competition nor their hardware competitors will allow Nintendo to dominate that single-player core gaming market any more than it does right now.

There is a massive casual audience that won't pay a monthly subscription for games. There is a massive core audience that won't pay a monthly subscription for games. There is a massive audience who like scares in their games, or storylines, or who like to escape the internet, just like the real world when they game. As long as that audience exists, online gaming won't prevail as the leading motivation for 3rd parties to developer their next moneymaker, anymore than casual gamings popularity motivates them do create only casual games.

shio (on 29 May 2008)

@zenfoldorvgi

Your arguments are weak. By your post, it seems that all online revenue for PC is only from subscription-based games... well that's wrong, what about Digital Distribution, which is amazing for developers since 1 Digital copy equals to 3 copies on boxed retail? Steam had a 148% Sales Increase in the 2007's winter holidays compared to 2006's.

I'm defensive? I don't deny it, especially after I tried to refute over 20 people (here on VGchartz) who kept saying "PC is dieing" or "PC gaming is dead", then followed by the most ignorant facts such as "Just look at NPD" or "PC costs $5000", when infact PC is increasing everyday and it's actually cheaper to game on PC than either PS3 or 360.

That's over 20 people who just kept saying "PC is dieing" without any knowledge to support it. Believe me, PC is getting more flask and harshness than Wii. And I'm sure more people will keep saying PC is dieing in the future, here in the forum.

Funny your comment about Crysis. Before Crysis came out, many just said that Crysis wouldn't even sell 500k since because no PC could run it. When NPD reported it only sold 86k in the first month, then so many people, ignorant of the dimensity of the North-american PC retail market, said it was a complete flop and it should've been on consoles; A few weeks later, EA reported that Crysis not only outsold initial expectations but it also reached 1 million in just 45 days, far better than Far Cry ever did.

For comparison: Far Cry sold 700k in first 4 months (1mil lifetime). Crysis sold 1million in just 45 days.

And again, you are talking about single-player games, but you don't mention Digital Distribution, which is increasing alot, and the future Imo for 'offline' games.

Example: "Newell said that in the next three months, its digital revenue from Valve titles will surpass its retail revenue."

http://next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10711&Itemid=2&limit=1&limitstart=0

gnawkz (on 29 May 2008)

I wonder if they included advertising ... I mean is that how Tangant and Kongregate make money?

Or freakin GunBound and their microtransactions ... or just freaky add-ons? Or Age of Conan ...

I dont think PC Gaming is dead ... I think Single Player PC Game is dead.

FaRmLaNd (on 29 May 2008)

Crysis sold a million copies last year. So high end games are selling extremely well. UT3 sold more copies on pc, the witcher sold a million copies. Hardcore games are selling extremely well on the pc and the pc has a massive casual market aswell. Its hard to get exact numbers though because a lot of digital distribution services don't release sales numbers.

trestres (on 29 May 2008)

It looks like another guess, more than a serious work.

The Ghost of RubangB (on 29 May 2008)

Nice work Zen. I'm gonna have to add "I play games, not game engines" to my "I support game companies, not game divisions" mantra.

The Ghost of RubangB (on 29 May 2008)

I think they're nuts for saying PS3 will sell more software than the Wii at any point in their lives. As the market leader, the Wii should be selling both hardware and software for about twice as long as either competitor, like say... every previous market leader. And this week, Wii sold 3.3 million games worldwide and the PS3 sold 1.1 million games worldwide. I don't really see that trend reversing.

scydrex (on 29 May 2008)

I personally love to play games on any console.

But if I had to take just one game to a deserted island, it would probably be Civilization IV or Starcraft II (assuming it-s as good as I expect it to be).

scydrex (on 29 May 2008)

Awesome reply, Zen.

Sky Render (on 29 May 2008)

I find it interesting that declarations of attach ratios being low on the Wii never ever take into account equivalent attach rates at the lifespans of competing systems. To wit, the American sales of the 360 in the equivalent week of its lifespan compared to the Wii this week:

26 May 2007
X360 353,115 (-12%) 36,009,253 5.78

25 May 2008
2,389,217 (+102%) 71,972,234 6.15

ZenfoldorVGI (on 29 May 2008)

@shio

I'm not disregarding anything.

I'm simply saying that PC fanboys like to leave out stuff that we would call console fanboys on in a second.

Using the world "revenue" to describe your software sales, not giving substantial real numbers, not showing the darkside of the computer business where large games that aren't online can take huge losses due to piracy, and not mentioning that companies like Epic and Crytek, once PC exclusive staples, have now abandoned the device.

I give plenty of credit to World of Warcraft. In fact, I'm saying that if it wasn't for World of Warcraft, the computer industries numbers would look much worse. Afterall, isn't the revenue being referred to here, the "gross" revenue? Which means that overall the PC gaming industry could maintain the highest gross dollar amount of "software" sales, even if they were at a net loss. I mean, I wonder if the 10 million people paying 16 dollars a month to play World of Warcraft, have anything to do with the PC industry's revenue being the highest. It's a good figure to refer to, as a pro-PC talking point, but it's kinda like Nintendo quoting its software sales, 3rd parties realize how much of those sales are from Nintendo games, or in this case, Blizzard games.

That's the problem with PC fanboys. You are so defensive, and you never give in on anything. You don't even admit that there is a counterargument to your claims that the PC is the future, biggest and best thing to happen to the gaming industry ever.

I contend that MS uses revenue in its PR spin everytime it gets the chance to tout how much consumers spent on its hardware. It doesn't mean they actually bought a lot of it, just that it was more expensive. We don't know what PC gamers are buying, but according to Crytek, it's not Crysis, and I've been in this argument before. There really is no denying that offline high cost single player games with high system requirements, need consoles to turn profit.

Now, as a PC gamer, you might think online-gaming is just the bees knees, but as a console gamer and a Nintendo fan, let me tell ya. Offline gaming isn't going anywhere. For those of us who would rather play an actual game, rather than a game engine that we can exploit with friends, there is still a large future in offline gaming, and that future is just as bright on the consoles as it is on the PC.

So, lets not declare war-over just yet. If the PC got 1/10th of the harsh stern-eyed factual analysis the industry dedicates everyday to the Wii, I'm sure we'd all know a ton of anti-PC talking point to spew whenever someone brought it up.

Basically, if your telling me the future is less Ocarina of Time/Symphony of the Night, and more Zelda MMO/Castlevania Online, then I'm telling you I'm out.

Str8knox (on 29 May 2008)

How can a console with a smaller userbase sell more software than a console with a larger userbase? They talk about tie in ratios for the Wii and everything, yet, it has the most sold software of any game console in the 1st 18 months, besting the Ps2?

These analysts get paid for making predictions, and we are supposed to believe what they say? No way.

If by retirement rate, they mean fail rate, then that is very unlikely for the Wii. I dropped it 5 times the last week, due to cousins over my house, and it hasn't broke yet. Ps3's are strong. I had 3 drops with mine this past week. The 360, well, has its famous problem.

shio (on 29 May 2008)

@zenfoldorvgi
You are not giving any credit to games like World of Warcraft, which need hundreds of millions for development/maintenance, because it gets it's money online rather than retail(which is much less profitable per copy)? Bollocks.

Online is the way of the future, that is why PC is years ahead of consoles, and that's why that there are more and more developers taking advantage of PC than consoles. Why do you think PC made more revenue than ALL Home Consoles (PS2+PS3+Wii+360) in Asia? Why do you think PC is probably making more money than Wii+PS3+360 in Europe and US?

Digital Distribution is becoming more and more popular, and most developers are starting to catch the train. Unlike Retail, on DD services they can make up to 3 times more profit for each copy than Retail. That is great since they will only need 330k copies to break even than 1million that would take on retail.

A few developers are already starting to catch up, and they know that Online PC is where the big bucks are. I don't even know why you're disregarding Online sales; it is merely another scheme for games to make profit.

Veggie (on 29 May 2008)

I wasn't aware the Wii had a higher than average fail rate...

famousringo (on 29 May 2008)

PS3 outsell Wii software, eh?

I just did a quick tally of software sales for both platforms in NA and JP regions. Take this with a grain of salt, since I don't have the time to add up all the weekly totals for Others, PS3's strongest market, and because software numbers tend to be a little dodgy on this site. Nevertheless, I think the numbers illustrate how far PS3 has to go to achieve this goal.

North American Software Totals:
Wii - 72.0 Million units
PS3 - 30.6 Million units

Even if you take out Wii Sports and leave all PS3 bundled software, Wii software moves double units in this region.

Japanese Software Totals:
Wii - 21.1 Million units
PS3 - 5.3 Million units

Ouch. Wii moves [i]quadruple[/i] software in this region, and you can't disqualify Wii Sports.

TWRoO (on 29 May 2008)

Ok this is from September.

It's not the same predictions I was thinking of... but here anyway.

www.dfcint.com/wp/?p=190

hopefully that works.

reverie (on 29 May 2008)

Interesting. By their estimates, once the Wii has more than three times the installed base of the 360 and two times the installed base of the PS3, it will be the best-selling platform for FPS. Shouldn't be too far off in the future.

TWRoO (on 29 May 2008)

I suppose the site search might find it, but I can't use it from Wii Opera as there is no "search"/"ok" to click on.

TWRoO (on 29 May 2008)

They should be in a thread somewhere, but it would be a task to find them.

As far as I remember they predicted similar to that other company, with PS3 catching up to Wii in hardware by 2011 or something.

Bodhesatva (on 29 May 2008)

What were their previous predictions? Anyone have those?

TWRoO (on 29 May 2008)

I vaguely remeber that the last time DFC said something, they predicted that PS3 software would surpass Wii software in 2009.

Nice to know they have moved it back 3 years.

FishyJoe (on 29 May 2008)

"One thing that is worth noting is that DFC has built in different models for how fast the current systems will be retired and how heavy consumer purchasing of software will be for each system."

Translation: We have different models so no matter what happens we can say how smart we were.

ZenfoldorVGI (on 29 May 2008)

@Bodhesatva

You should send that in an Email to software developers. Epic Games, Crytek, and Lucas Arts should top your list.

Seriously though, we have to look at a few things before we say that PC gaming is winning, like how much of that revenue is coming from World of Warcraft, what types of software are being purchased online, how are high dollar/high graphic single player games selling on PC compared to consoles, and are we talking about Crysis being downloaded, or Boggle? Are we talking subscription revenue for a few games, or a broad and open userbase for full priced, large high-system requirement, expensive games that require a million units sold to break even at $59.99. I think if we're gonna be harsh on the Wii for its tie-in ratio, we can't give the PC a free ride with vagueness like "from a pure revenue perspective."

Besides that, this article acts like it was written from an "outside looking in" perspective of the game industry. It is actually quite well written, but it doesn't take any risks, and tends to follow the generally accepted trends of the more casual industry analyists.

Aj_habfan (on 29 May 2008)

I am just curious, from a pure revenue perspective, what was the biggest system for software sales in 2007, if we include revenue generated from online services?

Luthor (on 29 May 2008)

I think we get Bod.

Bodhesatva (on 29 May 2008)

From a pure revenue perspective, the biggest system for software sales in 2007 was the PC, if you include revenue generated from online services.

From a pure revenue perspective, the biggest system for software sales in 2007 was the PC, if you include revenue generated from online services.

From a pure revenue perspective, the biggest system for software sales in 2007 was the PC, if you include revenue generated from online services

bardicverse (on 29 May 2008)

Source, did you post this just to appease that cyclone guy ;)

Not a bad read overall, of course, the DFC is about a definitive source on the console industry as Bush Jr is to diplomacy. :D

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DFC Brief: Record Game Sales in 2007 Are Just the Start for Videogames - News

The following is a press release emailed from DFC. DFC Intelligence’s research services provide detailed strategic analysis of the interactive entertainment industry.

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