Michael Pachter Predicts Xbox Game Pass Will Top 200 Million Subscribers in 10 Years - News
by William D'Angelo , posted on 02 June 2024 / 7,425 Views
Wedbush analysts Michael Pachter in the latest Pachter Factor has predicted Xbox Game Pass will surpass 200 million subscribers in 10 years.
"I do think Game Pass is going to become huge," said Pachter. "I do think the number is going to be 200 million plus subscribers. I've been saying this that in the next 10 years I think it'll get to 200 million.
"And I'll make that bet with anybody - I promise I'll pay. It will be 200 million in the next 10 years. They (Microsoft) are that committed to it. I don't think new subscribers have dried up.
"The huge acquisition were really just Bethesda which [is] starting to show some traction. And then Activision, which has no traction yet [because] the first title hasn't shown up."
The first game from Activision Blizzard did become available on Xbox Game Pass last week, which was Diablo IV. More Activision Blizzard games are planned to come to the service, however, no other information has been made available at this time.
Xbox Game Pass does currently has over 34 million subscribers.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can contact the author on Twitter @TrunksWD.
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RIP gamepass.
Man I can here to say that as well. I know someone at MS is saying "DAMN you Pacther, You have killed us all"
...anything Patcher says.... you know it's the opposite.
A year or two ago he also said that, in 10 years PlayStation would cease to exist as a console maker.
50-60 million is more realistic. Maybe 100 million at most. Out of the sub services I am pretty sure Netflix is the only one with over 200 million subs.
I don't think they will break 50. GP got to 34m only because the Live Gold sub was integrated into GP Core and even then there's a 2m net loss in subs. Micro was already signalling the end of subscriber hunting when they ended most of the promos. Then there was a price hike. Now 3rd party content investment is drying.
Ms is probably bleeding cash with GP and since they don't seem to be able to make it grow they are now trying to cut losses.
Not so sure about that.. growth has dwindled already and people are getting tired of subscriptions from streaming services. So that sentiment might bleed into video game sub services too, especially if Sony or Nintendo try to get into the market.
Sony and Nintendo kinda already have. Sony has a service that is very similar to Gamepass, just not on PC of course. Nintendo's is much different, but still a sub service where you get games to play that you don't own.
Difference is that they've tied each one to online gaming. Which, I have a feeling Sony might switch that up at some point.
So roughly half of the combined Active userbase of Xbox, PlayStation, Steam and Nintendo. I have serious doubts about that
I don't even think they hit 100mil.
Your operating under the assumption it will just continue to grow and never stall out. During the FTC trial in 2022 Spencer said GP had virtually no growth.
Seven years and GP has 35 million. How are they going to increase that by another 65 in ten? That's a massive spike in growth. Where are they going to find these extra people? The hardware sales are falling below their previous gen, they already released on PC, and Sony/Nintendo don't want it.
Maybe if they got on Steam they could do it. I guess that's one possible way I could see it happening but even then it would still be shocking to see them reach that many.
It's literally 34m going by Sarah Bond's words and they had to integrate 11m Live Gold accounts into GP Core to achieve it losing 2m subs in the process.
I don't even know if we are going to be alive next year and bro is talking TEN YEARS in the future lol
If they are around, I believe it'll only be in the form of Gamepass. There won't be an Xbox console, aside from maybe a little thumb stick, or puck that sits below a TV for streaming. It's just hard to imagine a physical Xbox being here in 2034 with the way things are going.
Subscription services are already declining. Good luck with that bet :D
I have no doubt that they can hit 200 million subscribers, if they don't care about profitability. They could just load it up with so much content, at a such a low price, that it gets every console and PC gamer to subscribe. That would likely be a serious money loser though. So, seems unlikely to me that they can hit that number with a profitable service, in the next 10 years, unless they have some ideas for a hugely different thing than the current game pass.
I do think they'll get a very large bump if they can figure out a deal to get it on PlayStation, and a smaller, but still significant bump if they can get it on Nintendo systems. And I think that will eventually happen. But, that still leaves them far short of 200 million. They're going to need a major breakthrough in mobile in order to make that happen. And, for better or worse (worse, of course), mobile is so F2P centric that I just don't see that happening anytime soon. At least not in a big way.
In ten years it is more likely it will cease to exist.
The service is now stabilized. It is more likely that instead of subsidizing the price of the console, Microsoft will subsidize the price of games to always be cheaper in its ecosystem. There are countries like Brazil where the price of multiplatform games is $5 to $20 cheaper on the XBox.
It won't. They have so Much big games that without trying will bring billions each year
Maybe if Microsoft becomes a 3rd party. With Xbox hardware they can only sink with it.
They won't become thrif party. The studios have now they one quite a few really big ones that bring in billions a year. They just keep buying cause exclusivity is dying and won't last long
If you believe there are around 2 billion gamers in the world, they think they can get 10% of them committed to Gamepass? Many of the 2 billion are not traditional gamers that play AAA games.
What if Microsoft invested more in mobile games? What if you could access a AAA from your cell phone and play via cloud gaming while you're away from home? What if you didn't need to spend money buying a new console, since your TV, PC, cell phone would do the same thing with a higher performance than current consoles?
In my opinion, it depends. It depends on whether we will have technologies capable of transmitting and sending data at a much higher speed than the current one, it depends on whether the economic and political scenario will allow the inclusion of more people on the internet, but one thing is a fact.... Microsoft is not committing the same mistake as in 2007 when assuming that smartphones wouldn't be as successful. I think Sony is making the same mistake as Microsoft in the past, by taking too long to enter this new field.
If that happends, then the price of the subcription jumps drastically.... hosting cloud gameing isnt cheap. Look at stadia, that was like 10 bucks a month. If you add cloud servies into it, subscription price will likely jump up by atleast that. Also if MS starts investing more in mobil games, to support that growth vision, the chances are they will piss off their current users, that will then unsubscribe. Would you be willing to spend 30$ a month for gamepass? or more, if it ment you didnt need to buy a console? Would you stay subscribed if most of the games were targeted towards mobile phone users? even if it ment, a less optimal experiance when gameing at home, infront of your tv?
Like what are the chances it actually beats PS Plus?
So hears the thing. Gamepass is about 10 years old right now and in that time it has amassed about 35 million subs. This is across both PC and Xbox. So, where are the additional 170 million coming from? You would have to put it on all PlayStation and Switch to even have a chance of getting there. How are you going to convince them to bite? And yes, we know you want the whole world to stream GP through their phones, but I don't want to play console games on my phone. No one does. "And I'll make that bet with anybody - I promise I'll pay. " This guy....
The key to this is Cloud gaming integrating consoles, PCs, mobiles and any other device that can connect peripherals (controllers, keyboard, mouse...). Maintain a constant launch of exclusive games for your ecosystem, price the service at an affordable price, reach the service in as many countries as possible, variety of games for all ages and different game genres, then you will have the perfect recipe to attract new customers.
I would bet that Microsoft will buy small eastern studios and mobile game studios, as it makes a lot of sense for this new strategy.
the problem is the price...... at 17$ pr month, thats only 204$ pr year. Enough to pay for 3 big games.
If MS puts out 3 big titles pr year, and view every subscription, as a loss of 3 sales of games..... its a money loss compaired to just selling it. MS has alot of studios now putting out alot of games (soon), and its all going to gamepass.... guess what happends to the profits those studios make from selling games? it nose dives. Prices of gamepass will go up, to sustain the studios MS has, mark my words.
When it does, growth in subscriotion numbers will climb even slower than they are now.
Interesting... 200M only on Xbox gamepass. I wonder where Playstation and Nintendo are in this.
Not happening...
I think he is referring to Games Pass across all platforms. Even then, 200 million is very optimistic. Only way I see it hitting those numbers is offering a Game Pass for mobile games and expand to more platforms for PC and consoles.
But I thought it was only like 25m subs and like 10m from converted xbox gold live thingy to now xbox gamepass core? So its "real" number would only be roughly 25m, if it wasn't for xbox renameing stuff..... and that its been stagnant for a few years now, without growing (staying around those 25m). How is it suddenly going to grow 175m users, in 10 years ? Whats the logic behinde that?
Feels pretty good not even having a Microsoft account.
Pachter-another Xbox cheerleader-no wonder they’re doing so bad!!!
As others have said, more likely Xbox ceases to exist within 10 years.
Even half of that 200 million would be a stupid prediction. But he makes these claims because he’ll be able to brush them off years down the road, if anyone even remembers.
Why does Pachter still have a job?
Patcher predicts shit doesn't stink
Massively growing Gamepass numbers with massively decreasing hardware sales? Cmon Michael. The only way this would happen is if MS gave out the Series S for free if you signed up to gamepass for 2 years. I'm surprised they haven't done that
Mobile represents 49% of the gaming market, consoles 30% and PC 21%. Within consoles we still have Playstation with 43%, Switch with 36% and XBox with 21%.
If you take the 49% + 20% + (21% * 30% = 6.30%) = 75.30% of potential customers.
How many of these mobile users are out to play Gears of War and not only that, pay a monthly sub for it? Mobile gamers pay nothing right now.
PC gamers overwhelmingly prefer steam and mobile gamers prefer free to play. Not hard to see that
Yes! I buy my games through Steam and Epic Games, but this still generates revenue for Microsoft. If the game costs US$70 on Steam and the revenue split is 70% for Microsoft and 30% for Steam, then Microsoft receives US$49 per unit sold. The most expensive game pass costs US$17 (ultimate), So if you divide 49 by 17, then we will have 2.88 or almost 3 months of game pass subscription.
Even though I buy games on Steam and Epic, I still like to subscribe to the game pass so I can play things that I wouldn't spend my money to buy, as I prioritize what I really like. By subscribing to the service I have several good surprises that end up being on my list of favorite games.
Potential customers for a service with no potential. Game Pass is going to turn 7 this year with that many potential customers and it is struggling to grow with the vast majority of its subscribers coming from console. Just reminding that something similar existed and failed with Stadia.
It's at about 34 million right now, which I think is the peak to date.
100 million is probable, 200 million would be massive and unlikely.
This is an illusion, we don't even know if M$ will release a new 5 Gen XBox , after all the FLOPS on the last generations. In the end M$ will possibly do what the biggest software company in the World should be doing, make and sell games for all platforms, and maybe give up on consoles. Don't get me wrong, I do wish M$ releases another console, as competition is good for the masses.
Alright Pach, back in yer box
https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/1fhasq/why_do_we_continue_to_listen_to_analysts_such_as/
This thread is 11 years old and people even back then were shocked we were listening to a thing Pachter says.
it will have a massive boost once call of duty starts dropping onto it
Call of Duty will be released in all platforms, M$ can't release it only on XBox and PC, the PS5 base is already over 55.000.000.
i didn't say it was going to be exclusive but it will come to gamepass
I bet the decision is making Xbox brass sweat bullets.
how much money will they lose giveing that away for free though? like xbox is the shooter box, and I bet CoD is one of those games, that nearly every xbox users buy. If suddenly no one buys it, because its on gamepass..... thats a massive potential loss of profit. This is why they are hessitant to say its comeing to gamepass, they know it'll cost them.
I'm not sure that's true.
People aren't going to buy an xbox just to get game pass, so they can then "get' call of duty for "free".
And if you already have an Xbox and play call of duty you most likely are already paying for game pass because you need to connect online.
So who is their target? People that have an xbox, that don't have game pass and don't play COD, but would try it out for $15? That then keep playing? Seems like a small group.
