Tons of Data from Nintendo's December Quarter Investor Briefing - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 28 January 2011 / 6,301 Views
The following is from Nintendo's latest investor presentation. Kudos to Nintendo once again for assembling the info.
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Nintendo presented trends on hardware sales and software sales for Japan, the USA and Europe. I'm going to start with the top hits in Japan, the USA and Europe (UK, France, Germany, Spain) for 2010 that Nintendo listed. Next we'll cover macro software trends for various regions. Following that, we'll have information for interesting sales performances on Wii / DS. Finally, we'll wrap up with hardware trends.
Top 20 Software Lists:
Depending on how you count Pokemon, Nintendo platforms had 11 or 12 of the top 20 games in the Japanese market. Wii had seven of the top games, PS3 had three, DS had five, and PSP had five as well. Only nine of the top 20 games were not made by first party companies or Pokemon Company which Nintendo owns.
In the USA, there were eight Wii games amongst the top 20, six X360 games, three PS3 games, and three DS games. Nintendo platforms therefore had 11 of the top 20 games in the USA by NPD. Unlike Japan, figures are roughly in line with the size of the USA software markets - Wii is the largest, closely followed by X360. The growing PS3 software base and shrinking DS software base were of about even size, on a unit basis, in 2010. Also of note - outside of Nintendo and Sony, no Japanese publishers, i.e. third parties, had a top 20 single platform hit in the USA. Ubisoft's Just Dance games also outperformed Assassin's Creed on a single platform basis. EA had a lousy single-platform year - only two top twenty hits in the USA.
In Germany, seven Wii games, seven PS3 games, five DS games and one X360 game charted amongst the best sellers of the year. Iwata notes that X360 is weak in Europe outside the UK - and in the charts presented only one X360 game per country charts in the European top 20 charts outside the UK. Japanese third parties fared a bit better in Germany than in the USA, with two single platform hits in the top 20. EA did a bit better too, presumably because Activision is much weaker than in the USA.
In the French top 20 for 2010, nine Wii games, six PS3 games, four DS games, and one X360 game charted. This is the strongest hold on the top twenty Nintendo platforms have in any country - 13 out of 20 - for 2010. Just Dance 2, like in the USA, is fifth in the French chart. For X360, Black Ops replaces Fifa as the lone title to chart.
In Spain, ten PS3 games, seven Wii games, three DS games. Iwata noted that Spain was historically a very strong Sony market, and remains so to some extent today. Art Academy did very well in Spain despite the piracy that runs rampant for DS in the country this is the only country where it got into the top twenty. Move also managed to chart for PS3 - more evidence that Spain remains a good country for Sony.
In the UK, eight Wii games, six X360 games, four PS3 games, and three DS games charted in the top 20 for 2010. Ubisoft's Just Dance was the top selling Wii game in the country, and in a higher position than Just Dance 1 or 2 in any other country. The eight-six-four split between Wii, X360, PS3 nearly matches the USA split of eight-six-three on the console side. DS notably had the weakest showing in the UK.
Looking through all the charts, the only games to appear for the UK, France, Germany, Spain, America and Japan are Super Mario Galaxy 2, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Sports Resort, and Wii Fit Plus. The charts also give an idea of relative platform strength by country, which is best understood in summation -
USA Japan UK France Germany Spain AVG
Wii 8 7 8 9 7 7 7.66
PS3 3 3 4 6 7 10 5.50
X360 6 0 6 1 1 0 2.33
DS 3 5 2 4 5 3 3.67
PSP 0 5 0 0 0 0 0.83
Tot 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Essentially, if you averaged the characteristics of these six markets into one country for 2010, you would expect eight Wii games, five PS3 games, four DS games, two X360 games, and one PSP game to chart. The relative strength of Wii was actually the most consistent in 2010 - seven to nine games in all markets, compared to two to five for DS, three to ten for PS3, zero to five for PSP and zero to six for X360.
General Software Trends for Japan
Software trends were also analyzed at a more macro level by Iwata. For Japan he assembled the following visual aids to show what was going on in Japan in 2010 as compared to previous years.
Iwata noted that from January to September 2010 software was for consoles was up for January to September 2009. In the absence of NSMB Wii and FFXII - which sold huge volumes in December 2010 - the market ended up falling quite a bit for the year.
It looks like Nintendo had about 52% (roughly) of Japanse console software in 2010, with PS3 at perhaps 41%, PS2 at 2%, and X360 at something like 5%. The PS2 share dropped off alot from 2008 to 2009 and then collapsed in 2009 to 2010. Most of the PS2 share has gone to PS3 it looks like, but Wii remains about half the market.
With Monster Hunter Portable 3 and other PSP games performing well late in 2010, the portable market actually grew a bit over 2010 for software. Iwata noted that had Nintendo managed to release 3DS in Japan as it had originally intended, the market for portable software would have likely grown more substantially, instead of flatlining at at 34m. Moreover, DS software was primarily legacy content in 2010 - Pokemon Black / White was the only mega hit for the year.
With DS shrinking in 2010 and PSP rebounding on MHP3, Nintendo's portable software share shrank to below 60% in Japan for the first time - probably ever - and certainly for the first time in the DS era. This is really an anomaly though - DS software share remains very strong in the Western markets as I'll detail below.
Overall, the Japanese software market shrank slightly in 2010, with portable software unable to offset the console software decline. Nintendo's share fell to 55%, but is presumably due for a rebound with 3DS launching ahead of NGP, and Wii and DS likely to remain ahead of PS3 and PSP for software in 2011.
Microsoft's share of the Japanese market remains something like 2%, leaving Sony with over 40% market share on the software side for the first time in a couple years.
General Software Trends for the United States
The USA console market, with three viable competitors and the PS2 not quite dead, was much larger than the Japanese market in 2010 according to NPD data Nintendo is citing.
Software sales for home consoles increased slightly in 2010, but remained around 175m or so, down from 2008 which was the all-time peak in the USA market to date. Microsoft's increase appears to have eaten into both PS2 and Wii software. Iwata notes that from January-November X360 software sales in the USA were higher than Wii, but for the entirety of 2010, the Wii software market was slightly larger than the X360 market.
Nintendo's console market share fell from about 42% in 2009 to 38% or so in 2010. Microsoft's share looks like it was 36% or so, leaving Sony with 26% of the market. In 2009 the splits were more like 42%, 31%, 27% going by the graphic. With PS2 drying up, the major trend of this generation has been the migration of the software market from Sony systems. Sony still had as much software market share as Nintendo holds now as recently as 2008 after holding over 50% of the console software market from 1997 to 2006.
Portable software has fallen from 80m in the USA in 2008 to about 55m in the USA in 2010. PSP software fell from 18m or so in 2008 to about 6m in 2010 going by the figures above. DS software has fallen from 60m to 48m or so over the same period, a comparable drop in units. On a percentage basis though, the PSP drop amounts to a nearly 70% drop off while the DS drop amounts to a much more modest 20% decline. Both figures indicate usage rates are rapidly declining though, as the base for both systems grew over 20m units between 2009-2010 and yet the software market continued to fall at an accelerating pace.
With PSP falling nearly 70% in two years and DS only falling 20% in two years, Nintendo's share of the portable market has increased from 74% to 86% in the USA. This is the exact opposite of Japan, where DS software share has eroded over the past two years as the PSP base became sufficiently large to attract third party support.
Overall, the USA software market continues to shrink from the 2008 peak despite the growth in X360 and PS3 software since that time. While Wii software remains at similar levels to 2008, DS, PSP and PS2 have each shrunk by 15m units or more from 2008 levels in the USA and Wii declined from its 2009 software peak. Overall software has fallen from 270m or so in 2008 to 240m or so in 2010. With Japan at 55m (roughly) in 2008-2010 for total software, the USA market remains between four and five times larger than the Japanese market for software, mainly due to the disparity in Microsoft's performance (1.5m base vs 25m base) and the 5:2 fold advantage in USA population.
General Software Trends in Europe
Nintendo assesses pan-European trends in these presentations by looking at the UK, France, Germany and Spain which it says account for 75-80% of the European market.
The European software market fell slightly from 2009 to 2010. Figures dipped from 101m to 99m roughly. PS2 and Wii shrank, while X360 and PS3 grew. For console software, Europe was similarly competitive to the USA in 2010.
Nintendo says PS3 software share was slightly bigger than Wii software share in Europe for 2010, after the reverse was true in 2009. The split looks like 39% for Sony console software, 36% for Wii, and 25% for X360. In the USA, home consoles were split 38%, 36%, 26% in favor of Nintendo, Microsoft and then Sony.
In Europe, portable software has collapsed over the past two years as piracy and disinterest have set in quickly. A 57m market in 2008 has fallen to 32m in 2010. PSP has fallen from 11m units (roughly) in 2008 to 5m in 2010, while DS has fallen from 46m in 2008 to 27m in 2010. Once again, the PSP drop off is larger on a percentage basis - 55% for PSP, 42% for DS, but in units most of the decline is attributable to DS. The DS decline is also much faster than in the USA. Portable software in the USA went from 80m to 55m in 2008 to 2010, European software went from 57m to 32m - the European fall off is 44%, the USA fall of is only 31%.
While PSP has fallen faster from 2008 to 2010, DS fell faster from 2009 to 2010, and thus saw its share fall to 79%. With DS software at 86%, 79%, and 57% of portable software against PSP in 2010 in the USA, Europe and Japan respectively the 3DS is set to launch in 2011 from a position of strength.
With DS, PSP, and PS2 shrinking rapidly from 2008 European software has fallen from 150m+ to 130m or so. Wii shrank from 2009 as well, but remains at about the level of 2008 for software. For comparison, the USA market was 240m in 2010 - 84% larger than Europe, and it has also been about 80% larger in 2008.
Nintendo's overall share of European software fell to 44.6% in 2010, but with Microsoft increasing to 21%, Nintendo retained a plurality. Sony's share is bouncing back in Europe though - increasing from 30% to 34% from 2009 to 2010.
Other Software Trends
On a global basis, Nintendo also provided an updated on the number of titles from third parties and Nintendo to ship over 1m units. Through December 2010, Wii has 99 games over 1m units shipped, while DS has 138. The Wii figure is in four years, for 25 games over 1m units shipped per year on average, while the DS figure is in six years, or 23 games over 1m units per year on average.
Ten DS games crossed the 1m threshold between October and December 2010 - five from Nintendo, five from third parties. The 84 games over 1m from third parties amounts to 14 per year on average.
Wii had 15 games, five from Nintendo, ten from third parties cross 1m units shipped between October and December 2010. Games known to have crossed 1m in this period are Kirby, Mario Collection, DKC: Returns, Just Dance 2, Michael Jackson, and Epic Mickey. I'd also wager Pokepark, Goldeneye, Udraw passed 1m shipped in the quarter. The other six games were likely older titles still selling modest volumes. With 70 third party games over 1m on Wii in four years, there are about 17-18 released in an average year.
Nintendo also detailed a couple of sales patterns which it found interesting or surprising. The first case is Wii Party, which did well in Europe and Japan but opened modestly in the USA.
Nintendo expects USA sales to pick up, but the pace has been far less explosive than Europe.
The Donkey Kong Country pace however is much more "normal" trending the highest where the Wii base is highest - the USA, second best in Europe where the Wii base is next largest, and performing the slowest in Japan where the Wii base is smallest.
Citing European trackers, Nintendo also says the pace of Just Dance 2 is absolutely explosive in Europe compared to its predecessor.
Art Academy is another anamolous title - performing very well in Europe (notably Spain) but not nearly as well in the USA.
Art Academy has sold over two times as many units in Europe as in the USA and Japan to date according to the image.
Nintendo has also announced plans to publish Just Dance 2 and Goldeneye Wii in Japan. Ubisoft had previously mentioned it will bring over Michael Jackson to Japan for Wii (and probably other systems eventually). Pandora's Tower, a Hal-Kirby game, Rhythm Heaven, and Wii Zelda are all set to release for Wii in Japan during 2011 and more announcements are still to come.
Hardware Trends for 2010
With software covered, it is now time to look at hardware. In Japan, hardware sales for portables and consoles shrank in 2010 from 2009.
Unique to Japan, all four home consoles declined in 2010. In Europe and the USA, at least one system increased - but this was not the case in Japan. The decline follows steady sales in 2008 and 2009. Home consoles will likely decrease again in 2011, but they may stabilize at about 3.5m if Wii or PS3 get price cuts.
Portable hardware has actually been in decline since 2006-2007, the years when DS alone sold 7-8m units in Japan and PSP sold several million units more. So 2010 is actually at about 3/5 the level of the portable peak in 2006-2007. Moreover, after easily beating PSP in 2004-2007, the margins from 2008-2010 in favor of DS have been much smaller, with the two portables statistically tied in 2010.
Overall Japan bought about 9.4m units of hardware in 2010, down from about 12.3m units in 2008. Nintendo (1.66 + 2.89) and Sony (1.55 + 2.88 + 0.09) each sold about 48-49% of the hardware in Japan, with Microsoft selling 2%.
In the USA, home console sales also declined from 2009 to 2010, as Wii and PS2 dropped and PS3 sales were nearly identical both years.
Previously reported data for these figures are 7.07m Wiis, 6.76m X360s, 4.33m PS3s, and 0.74m PS2s. Microsoft's figure is an all time record for the company in the USA, as Kinect pushed X360 to new levels in the USA. Sony's USA share of the home console market fell to 26% in the USA, its lowest level since 1996. With PS2 likely to fall to 20,000 or less most months in the USA, PS3 will need to pick up a bit if Sony intends to 5m consoles again.
Nintendo's share of 2010 home console market fell to 37.4% in 2010, with Microsoft just behind at 35.7%.
Portable hardware fell to just over 10m in 2010 from just under 14m in 2008. This mirrors trends in Japan and Europe. Overall, the USA hardware market fell to under 30m for the first time since 2007. Nintendo sold about 54% of USA hardware for the year almost 16m units, Microsoft sold 6.8m units of hardware, and Sony sold 6.7m units of hardware - beating Sony for the first time on the hardware front.
Figures before 2006 it should be noted are primarily portable hardware from Nintendo. In 1998-1999 for instance Game Boy Color was launched and starting to really take off.
Hardware sales in Europe also fell, from over 12m in 2008 to 9m in 2010 on the console side of the industry.
PS3 and Wii decreased in Europe in 2010, but X360 grew a little bit, lowering Sony's and Nintendo's hardware share a bit in 2010.
Portables sold 4m fewer units in 2010 than in 2008. DS shrank from 8.5m to 5m, and PSP fell from 2m to 800,000 or so.
Finally, Nintendo provided USA, Japanese, and European hardware sales by week for 2010 and 2009. As USA and Japanese figures are widely available, I'm only going to reproduce the European charts here.
Wii easily had the biggest holiday weeks again in 2010, but declined over the 2008-2009 peak, while PS3 and X360 grew. For PS3, 2010 was only the fourth Christmas in Europe, so the growth makes sense - Wii's 2009 was its fourth Christmas too. For X360, the growth is tied to Kinect but figures ae still generally comparable to 2008 and less than Wii and PS3. Wii had been in third during weeks 37-41, so the growth in Europe over Christmas, like in the USA was pretty impressive. By NPD in the USA, Wii went from 58,000 per week in October to 474,000 per week in December - eight fold growth. Europe saw a similar trend, with Wii going tfrom 50,000 per week in October to 400,000 per week in the run to Christmas.
PSP had a slightly better holiday in Europe during 2010 than 2009, while DS had a slightly worse holiday. In 2010 PSP peaked at 150,000 per week, rather than 100,000 per week in 2009. DS peaked at 425,000 in 2010 after peaking at 510,000 in 2009. Both systems should be way down next year with 3DS and possibly NGP arriving in European stores during 2011.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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Things can always turn around. Nintendo has to put more attention on Wii, that's all. They let it run on cruise control for most of the past 2 years. Wii 2 is not needed. The 360 jumpstarted themselves in the middle of the gen & Wii can too...WITHOUT transforming their entire console. They put out a new color (Red) & boosted themselves for the holidays. If Nintendo makes a new home console now, it'll be the worst mistake they'll ever make. Worst than the Virtual Boy.
John Lucas
Wow at wii party numbers... did pretty bad in the US
I really enjoy these data as it's always a joy to see how things are trending and corelate them with VGC. Looks like the crew did a good job during the holidays bare a few adjustments
Wii is still on top but i guess not for long
Nintendo will probably focus on 3DS for 2011 and maybe a Wii2 in 2012
hmm i wonder where this leaves the Wii in 2011, if it continues to decline it'll probably end up around ~14mil and PS3/360 just need to stay flat YoY to offer some major competition for the Wii (though that might be a challenge from them aswell without a well timed price drop). As far as software goes the Wii looks to be doing well, and DS software declines should be offset by 3DS software.
Actually I was measuring it wrong. It's more like 15k-35k per week for the first 8 months. Although 2009's advantage would only be approximately 200k-225k so it would still be pretty noticeably up on 2009.
Well stringing together the weekly chart from the previous investor briefing it would appear that PS3 actually sold noticeably more in Europe in 2010 than in 2009. I didn't count pixels but it would appear that PS3 only had 5-6 weeks in 2010 where it sold less than in 2009, amounting to approximately 250k-300k advantage for 2009. But it looks like 2010 was beating 2009 by a consistent 30k-50k a week throughout the first 8 months of the year and then beat 2009 again in the holidays by a pretty significant margin.
I think its likely for the four markets and extrapolated intelligently for the remaining European markets.
The individual week chart for hardware sales in Europe is cited to Nintendo. I would assume this means it's based on SIRAS data. Is it for the entirety of Europe or just UK, Germany, France, and Spain?
