The Japan Preview: 9/5 Edition (Metroid Leads Quiet Week)

Summary & A Look Ahead:

Software sales in Japan were very quiet this week. Nintendo's Metroid: Other M was the only new release of any relevance, coming in just ahead of week two sales for the Monster Hunter spinoff title that released last week. PS3 and DS had very quiet weeks for software - with neither system seeing any games top 10,000 units going by the preliminary data. As with last week Inazuma Eleven 3 did not show up in the preliminary data, but could be over 10,000 units in the final data. Capcom had another good week though, with Sengoku Basara 3 selling another 10,000 units between PS3 & Wii, and MonHun Nikki topping 50,000 units in its second week of sales.

Preorders for Monster Hunter 3 Portable have begun to ramp up now that the title has a solid release date. With nearly three months until release, Monster Hunter 3 Portable has over 440,000 preorders. That is a solid 60,000 jump from last week. Nintendo's Pokémon Black/White for the DS releases on September 18 - less than two weeks from now - and continues to see preorders rise rapidly.  Tommorow, preorders for Pokémon Black/White will top Dragon Quest IX levels, becoming the highest preorder value I've seen on this data set since tracking it in April 2007. As it stands now, the game has about 1.5 million preorders (give or take 5%) and looks set for a week one of at least 1.8m - one of the largest debuts in Japan of all time. It could easily end up being higher, but there are strong incentives to preorder this edition of Pokémon, and so preorder to week one sales may not follow the usual pattern.

Understanding the Japanese Preview:

Rather than saying x game for y platform sold between 20,000 and 28,000 units as in the past, the preliminary data will be broken down into charts by platform. Within these charts, there will two additional categories besides the rounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the left will be ‘low end’ depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold for the week, while to the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highest amount the title likely sold for the week. As always, this data is preliminary, and therefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. The varying platform market share the sample represents is why consistent sellers like Wii Fit Plus do not always appear in the preliminary data. Sales for this report are for the week ending September 5, 2010.

Software by Platform:

Figures are listed by the age of the platform, for the top twenty sku information that we recieve early.

Wii Software - Sengoku Basara 3 returned to the preliminary data for Wii at 4,000 units. The title is now quite likely to top 100,000 on Wii in Japan. Wii Party topped 900,000 this week and will definitely be over one million in Japan by the end of the month. Super Mario Galaxy 2 is nearing 800,000 units in Japan but will need a much longer time frame to reach a million units in Japan. Metroid: Other M opened to 54,000 units - which is much stronger than the week one of Metroid Prime 3 in March 2008. With a similar trajectory to Sengoku Basara 3, Metroid can reach 100,000 units in Japan as well. Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Mario Kart Wii, and Dragon Quest Monsters: Battle Road Victory should all be over 5,000 units in the final data as well. Expect Wii hardware sales to rise into the 16,000 to 22,000 unit range for the week.

PS3 Software - ACE: R continues to fall rapidly. It was only two weeks ago that the game had sold hundreds of thousands of units, but now it is below 10,000 units. Still, the game will likely stabilize at 5,000 or so for a few weeks and eventually make a run at 300,000 units in Japan. The re-release of Modern Warfare 2 performed fairly well, and may be able to leg out 50,000 units or so over the long term, as cheaper re-releases have excellent legs in Japan. Expect PS3 hardware sales to fall into the 18,000 to 23,000 unit range for the week.

X360 / PS2 software - No titles showed up in the preliminary data for either system. Expect X360 hardware sales to fall into the 1,800 to 2,800 unit range while PS2 hardware remains in the 1,000 to 1,800 range for the week.

PSP Software - The newest Bleach game had a modest opening for PSP. Otherwise, the preliminary data was dominated by previously released software. Mon Hun Nikki fell to 50,000 units, but if it has legs like a typical Monster Hunter, the game can clear not just 400,000 but probably 500,000 units in Japan. Ace Combat fell fairly sharply in its second week but is performing similarly to the first Ace Combat on PSP. Monster Hunter Portable 2G, Powerful Pro Baseball, and Project Diva are all hanging in the preliminary data but will likely fall out when the next wave of PSP software arrives later in the year. Expect PSP hardware sales to fall into the 25,000 to 35,000 unit range for the week.

DS Software - Once again, it looks like there may not have been any DS games to top 10,000 units in Japan. In the final data, Inazuma Eleven 3 will probably end up right around 10,000 units though. Art Academy is continuing to hold up very well given how low its opening was and may yet clear 250,000 or more in Japan. Harvest Moon, Taiko and Friend Collection continue to show good legs and should remain on the preliminary charts for a few more months. Tetris Party Premium, Kamen Rider and Fire Emblem should all be over 5,000 units in the final data as well. Expect DS hardware sales to remain in the 37,000 to 43,000 unit range for the week.

Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com