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Switch to Sell 24M in 2021, PS5 and XSX|S to Sell a Combined 25M, Predicts Analyst

Switch to Sell 24M in 2021, PS5 and XSX|S to Sell a Combined 25M, Predicts Analyst - Sales

by William D'Angelo , posted on 02 August 2021 / 3,349 Views

Ampere Analysis games industry analyst Piers Harding-Rolls speaking with GamesIndustry has predicted the Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console in 2021 with sales around 24 million units. He has also predicted Nintendo will release an updated model of the Nintendo Switch in 2021. 

Harding-Rolls has also forecasted the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S to sell a combined 25 million units in 2021 with the PS5 selling more units worldwide than the Xbox Series X|S. 

He expects Sony and Microsoft to end production on the PlayStation 4 Pro and Xbox One S sometime in 2021.

"I expect Nintendo's Switch family of devices to be the best-selling consoles again in 2021 following a very strong 2020," he said. "Last year I was unconvinced there would be a new flagship model Switch in 2020, but it makes more commercial sense to release an updated version in 2021. I currently have an updated version of the Switch in my forecasts for 2021.

Switch to Sell 24M in 2021, PS5 and XSX|S to Sell a Combined 25M, Predicts Analyst

"Overall, 2021 is going to be a big year for the console sector, with Switch devices expected to sell in large numbers (currently expecting ~24 million) and next-gen consoles fresh to the market (combined sales forecast to hit ~25 million), segment growth will be substantial even against the backdrop of a pandemic-induced recession.

"I expect production of Xbox One S and PS4 Pro to cease in 2021. PS5 will outsell the combined total of Xbox Series X|S on a global basis. I'm expecting PS5 shipments of around 8.5 million by the end of March 2021.

Previously I suggested a next-gen PSVR could arrive in 2021 but I'm now expecting it in 2022 at the earliest."


A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.


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11 Comments
S.Peelman (on 05 January 2021)

Seems like a pretty realistic prediction actually.

  • +5
Ryng (on 07 January 2021)

too low for Switch imo, about right for PS5/XBS

  • +1
shikamaru317 (on 05 January 2021)

Seems a tad low to me, the PS5+Xbox Series combined figure. XB1+PS4 in 2014 was about 22.5m, I feel like Xbox Series+PS5 combined can beat that by more than 2.5m, considering demand for both PS5 and Xbox Series so far seems considerably higher than it was for their predecessors. Both MS and Sony also have stronger exclusives for 2021 than they had for 2014, assuming no delays on currently announced games. I guess in the end it comes down to production, production so far has been relatively slow, if both MS and Sony can ramp up production some I think they can exceed 25m for 2021 by a good bit.

  • 0
AFattyGamer (on 05 January 2021)

I mean combined yeah the Microsoft Series X and Sony PS5 can do 25 million. But this depends really on how many units Sony can produce this year. Sony ending PS4 manufacturing in Japan shows their gearing up for PS5 this year. Sony has the potential but can they really pull off the unprecedented? In PS5's 1st year? Hmmmm

  • -1
Doctor_MG (on 05 January 2021)

I think the Switch number is a tad high, and the PS5 + XSX number is a tad low. My max prediction for Switch is around 22.5M. I could see the PS5 selling 15-17M and XSX selling 10-12M. Putting 25M at the very low end and 29M at the high end.

  • -2
javi741 Doctor_MG (on 05 January 2021)

Your Max prediction for Switch is too low. There's still so much unmet demand for the Switch headed into 2021, to expect it to drop around 20M seems too pessimistic based off of the crazy demand it is having rn.

  • +5
Doctor_MG javi741 (on 05 January 2021)

Well, I feel some of it's demand is propelled by the boost in the videogame industry influenced by COVID-19. Next year probably wont have that large of a boost because of vaccines. Also, 22.5M is still crazy high demand and higher than PS4 did in any single year, even at its peak. Sure it is ~5-6M less than what the Switch sold in 2020, but that was likely its peak year anyway.

  • -5
SvenTheTurkey Doctor_MG (on 06 January 2021)

But every console was benefitting from the pandemic in 2020. Certainly to a lesser extent for sony and MS since their new consoles were imminent. But it seems to me with staying at home being recommended, all consoles will be getting a boost through half of next year. I feel like 22 million is safe for switch in 2021. But I do think sony and MS will have a higher combined sales than the analyst has predicted.

  • 0
javi741 Doctor_MG (on 06 January 2021)

Doctor_MG most people in the U.S let alone the world won't get vaccinated in 2021, even with the vaccine its still gonna take maybe over a year before businesses and schools have the confidence to begin opening up back to normal, most people will still be forced to work from home or take classes online in 2021. We likely won't see life begin to turn back to normal until 2022. Plus, like I said earlier there is still so much unmet demand for the Switch rn, if Nintendo had enough supply to meet this demand Switch sales would likely be well over 30 Million in 2020, however since Nintendo failed to supply that amount, much of the demand will extend to 2021 so to expect demand to dwindle to 22M from a potential 30M year seems unrealistic. Plus, Im not even bringing up the fact that the Switch's library could be much more robust than 2020 along with the potential of a Switch pro. However, I won't harp on that argument just yet since it is based off of assumptions. But it should be safe to say Switch will surpass 22.5M in sales this year if supply is met.

  • 0
kazuyamishima Doctor_MG (on 06 January 2021)

There will be no Animal Crossing (the casual game for excellence) and A lot of people started to live alongside Covid, sales will be lower compared to 2020.

  • -6
SvenTheTurkey kazuyamishima (on 06 January 2021)

Hard to say. A new monster hunter will definitely boost sales or maintain them in Japan for a while. And the switch had almost nothing out in 2020. Animal crossing, xenoblade remake, paper mario, mario 3d collection, pikmin 3, and Hyrule warriors are the only exclusives I can think of. So 2 remakes, a collection of old games, and 3 new titles.

They can probably keep the pace from last year as long as they have more compelling games in 2021 compared to 2020. I bought 4/6 I mentioned. They are good, but only one that really blew me away (paper mario). If zelda comes out this year and a few more surprises, they'll potentially have their best lineup since 2017.

The switch is also still full price since launch almost 4 years ago. The switch lite doesn't really count as a price drop since it's also a feature drop. So they still have dropping the price up their sleeve if need be.

  • +4