Try that for size.

If you would permit me to go into more detail about it, have some of this; Firstly, I think I am correct with the monthly production numbers, it started at 1 million, and was increased to 1.2, 1.5 and 1.8 million respectively... if you look at the pattern they form, and bare in mind it takes about a month to get them from factory to "shipped" status, the production is increased in time for each new quarter, for instance in December 2006, Jan 07 and Feb 07 there were 1 million produced per month, then in March began increased production which would ship just in time for the start or the new quarter (early April). The exception to this is when it increased from 1.2 to 1.5 million, which was around the time Nintendo spoke of their troubles in ramping up production.... so It was a month later.

Obviously I don't know exact dates when production increased (and it wouldn't suddenly jump up 200k from 1 day to the next either), nor do I know exactly how long shipping takes, but this table does seem to coincide with Nintendo's quarterly fiscals, such that 6 million had been produced by the end of February, and by the end of March 5.84 million shipped... similarly 9.6 million produced by the end of May, and 9.27 shipped by the end of June.

----------

Regarding the last calender quarter of 2007, this has a production at the end of November as 19.2 million, which had Nintendo kept shipping normally would have been all they could ship for the end of the year... however Nintendo used faster shipments going by air to enable more consoles at Christmas, I think it is fair to assume that even air shipping takes about a week (not the flight, but the lorries etc on either side) so air shipping probably added about 0.5 to 0.7 of a months consoles on top or about 900k.

That 900k consoles obviously couldn't be shipped in 2008 anymore as they would have been, and so by the end of February shipments look to be back in line with the previous months production (production at the end of Jan was roughly 22.8 million, and sales by VGC end of February were 22.2 million (so shipment being 600k higher seems about right)

Nintendo are also aiming for about 24 million LTD to be shipped by the end of March, which is roughly what production is at the end of February... The 600k extra may be "stockpiled" to be carried over for the next quarter (something you can also see at the end of other quarters... like 13.8 million produced by the end of August, yet only 13.17 million shipped by the end of September... that particular discrepancy is the largest and is likely due to the extra bit of stockpiling Nintendo did for that crucial last quarter)

Don´t tell me what to read.

Nice work TWRoO, you get a gold star!

Sorry El Duderino, but I just read the beginning of Roadkillers new thread and decided to go on a research trip, and I think this shows what happens to stock quite well (as long as you read the rather long explanation to understand where I am coming from)

I think it shows that the extent of any stockpiling done last year was minimal, and was generally just reserved stock for the end of each quarter so Ninty could start the next one with a bang... it shows also where the airfreighting occured (and that there was also something like it for Christmas 2006, which I didn't mention in the OP)

and it also seems to show that Nintendo don't actually have any kind of reasonable stockpile at the moment (assuming production is still 1.8mil/month)

Perhaps if March sales shows less than 1.7 million in total then we will be able to assume stockpiling for China or whatever, but if it turns out March and April are both around 1.8 million per month, then Nintendo is merely back on track after having to ship consoles by air in December and January.

Edit. Thanks Ringo. 

Another thread that relies on logic ...
Internet is doomed!

Good work dude. 

 I was just messing with you, its a good read and it´s nice to see people who actually put some facts and logic together, I was just showing some attitude thats all, sorry :) 

I am just not going to make any more threads if this keeps happening, it's not like my avatar scares people away.

I'm a little tired, but it looks like a good analysis - I agree with it.

I think they will easily make their fiscal target, then aim for something like 2.4m production for next fiscal year (average) - which includes "dumping" stockpiled Wiis in April for new games, and to counter GTA. Fiscal target for '08-09 should be around 16m-20m.

Anything over 20m would be a huge bonus - and consider that Ninty tend to be conservative, and upp their forecasts - rather than overestimate.

I doubt they'll up their production to 2.4, most likely 2.2 for the first quarter of the year.

^yes that seems likely to me, they may go up to 2.2 in either March, which would ship in April. Or in June in time for fiscal Q2 (calender Q3) then it might go up again in time for the last 3 months.

I think I am correct when I say the higherst production rate PS2 was ever at is 2.2 million? and that was in it's best selling time in it's third year, the Wii may match that after less than 1.5 years.

I would guess the only two pieces of hardware produced faster than 2.2 million per month would be the DS which is currently at 2.5? and possibly the GBA, which easily rivaled the PS2 in sales until PSP/DS were announced.