VGChartz Gap Charts, January 2012 Update

by Seb Parker, posted on 06 February 2012 / 3,198 Views

Welcome to the all new VGChartz Gap charts. This month I'm introducing two new charts, PS2 Vs. NDS Shipments which will be quarterly, and 3DS Vs. PS Vita in Japan. The remaining charts consist of X360 Vs. Wii USA, PS3 Vs. Wii Europe, PS3 Vs. X360 Global and X360 Vs. Wii UK. Next month I will add a 3DS Vs. Vita Global chart, to coincide with its Worldwide launch this February.

As I missed December's gap charts I will add the statistics in with this months.



Xbox 360 Vs. Playstation 3 Global:
Gap change in December: 370,582 - Xbox 360
Gap change in January: 251,786 - Playstation 3
Gap change over last 12 months: 739,894 - PlayStation 3
Total Lead: 3,160,467 - Xbox 360

Over December X360 continued to widen the gap, but at a much slower rate than November. However PS3 is historically strong in January compared to the X360, so with December and January combined the gap only widened about 120,000 in the 360's favour. February should be more of an even playing field, but with PS3 still ahead. The gap will still likely be above 3m.



Xbox 360 Vs. Wii USA:
Gap change in December: 891,285 - Xbox 360
Gap change in January: 169,635 - Xbox 360
Gap change over last 12 months: 2,557,225 - Xbox 360
Total Lead: 5,529,206 - Wii

Xbox 360 kept momentum going into December and increased its lead over Wii to bring the gap down to below 6 million with January still seeing good gains for 360. Over the last year the gap has closed around 2.5 million, it's hard to predict 2012 holiday season sales being so far away, but the Xbox is long overdue a price cut, and with WiiU releasing it's likely the gap will close faster than it did over 2011. The gap could go below 3m before we reach 2013.



Playstation 3 Vs. Wii Europe:
Gap change in December 203,515 - PlayStation 3
Gap change in January: 218,850 - PlayStation 3
Gap change over last 12 months: 1,632,828 - PlayStation 3
Total Lead: 7,151,172 - Wii

Despite Wii putting up a good fight in Europe over the holidays, the gap still closed 200,000~ units, January however has seen the gap close even more so than it did in December, even with the downtick in sales. It seems unless there is major intervention the gap closes 150k - 300k monthly whatever time of year. With Wii fading fast and the PS3 likely to see a long shelf life in Europe, this will be a steady, drawn out race.



Xbox 360 Vs. Wii UK:
Gap change in December: 171,532 - Xbox 360
Gap change in January: 56,918 - Xbox 360
Gap change over last 12 months: 760,767 - Xbox 360
Total Lead: 879,030 - Wii

Strong sales of the Xbox 360 in the UK over the holidays means the gap dips below 1 million units. With less than 880,000 units to go the 360 would have to fall at the last hurdle not to outsell Wii in the UK. For the 360 to overtake the Wii this year it would have to sustain sales or at worst see a 15% drop year over year, even with a price cut this isn't a certainty. After 3 years of seeing more than a 500k unit drop YOY, Wii will likely end up in the 300k - 400k range for the year, 360 needs to do about 950k more than Wii does this year to overtake in 2012. If X360 doesn't manage this it's certain to happen in 2013.



3DS Vs. PS Vita Japan:
Gap change in December 1,206,886 - 3DS
Gap change in January: 424,589 - 3DS
Gap change over last 12 months: 4,298,683 - 3DS
Total Lead: 4,298,683 - 3DS

Even with the Vita debuting during the holiday season, a price cut 3DS along with Mario Kart, SM3DSL and MH combo managed to outsell the new Sony handheld by more than 1.2 million units, with impressive momentum continued in January. With the summer months ahead the gap won't expand as much as it has over January, but if Sony wants Vita to compete with the 3DS in Japan they're going to have to seriously consider some unfavourable options.



Playstation 2 Vs. NDS Global Shipments:
Gap change in Q4: 1,160,000 - NDS
Gap change over last 12 months: 1,800,000 - NDS
Total Lead: 3,340,000 - Playstation 2

Which system will be the best-selling video game system of all time? Well, with 3DS beasting right now NDS sales have fallen hard and fast, only last holiday the NDS saw shipments over 9m, shipments were 2m this Q, down 7m year over year.  Sony have noted that sales for the PS2 in developing countries are shrinking but still viable. Both Nintendo and Sony give their forecasts for FY12 in April, both should be in the 2 - 3.5m range, even with PS2 at the bottom end of this range and DS at the top, they're still declining too fast for DS to eat into that 3.3m lead. FY13 shipments are likely to be well below 2m for both systems, and may even be their last. I should also note Nintendo of late have been notoriously poor when giving forecasts, having to amend quarterly for at least one system for the last 2 years. They originally predicted 11m this FY for the DS, which has since been revised down to 5.5m over the space of 6 months, the DS is declining much more rapidly than they anticipated.


6 Comments

AFFLICTION
AFFLICTION (on 06 February 2012)

You should add a PS3 vs Wii Japan chart!

  • +6
BasilZero
BasilZero (on 06 February 2012)

So from the article about 3DS VS PSVita, unfavorable conditions can be considered as a price cut? What if they released a new bundle which makes it worth it or include some pretty good games within the summer time? I still think 250 dollars is fine for now. Instead of a price cut they should do something with the memory cards, make it a bundle imo like I said earlier.

  • +4
kivi95
kivi95 (on 06 February 2012)

Yeeah they memory cards is something they really could do something about.

  • +4
happydolphin
happydolphin (on 06 February 2012)

I love these gap charts Seb, the graphs speak for themselves, then a brief paragraph gives a expert view. I like it. One minor suggestion. By looking at the graphs, it's hard to tell which is above in sales without looking at external data (for instance, is 360 or is PS3 above global? We know it's 360, but for newer users it may not be as obvious and from the graphs it's almost impossible to tell). For instance, in the graph title, you can say, instead of: "Xbox 360 Vs. Playsation3 - Global", you can trim it, but mark the leader, as in "X360 (Leader) vs PS3 (runner up) - Global" Also, for the Gap Change part, "Gap change in December 1,206,886 - 3DS" you can have say "Gap change in December in favor of 3DS: 1,206,886" That doesn't need to be the solution, but the idea is to have a better idea of who is leader, who is runner up. which is climing, which is dropping, possibly it isn't 100% clear for newer viewers or maybe external viewers. Just an idea. THANK YOU as always!

  • +2
Seece
Seece (on 06 February 2012)

I didn't realise it wasn't overly obvious, I'll add some tags next time if it helps.

  • +2
happydolphin
happydolphin (on 06 February 2012)

I understood them after looking up some numbers, but if you can add them, it will greatly help, and probably more the newer members.

  • 0
Wh1pL4shL1ve_007
Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 (on 06 February 2012)

Cool :-)

  • +1
Kai Master
Kai Master (on 06 February 2012)

an HD versus Wii may seem interesting at first but in fact 360 and PS3 are both basically the same consoles and should be considered one. So in real facts that's more HDs versus Wii IMO. PS2 versus DS is very interesting, and I never would have thought the DS would stall like this.

  • 0
Seece
Seece (on 06 February 2012)

They're not the same console though, far from it. The charts are to see if Wii could end up 2nd in any of the major markets.

  • +1
happydolphin
happydolphin (on 06 February 2012)

Seece, correct me if I'm wrong, but we used to have the Wii vs HD gaps. Now that the gap was destroyed by the twins, I don't think they're needed anymore.

  • -1
Seece
Seece (on 06 February 2012)

Yeah we did, I removed them a few months ago, it was just an ever growing gap going nowhere but up.

  • -1
pezus
pezus (on 07 February 2012)

Yup, was almost showing exponential growth.

  • +1
Shinobi-san
Shinobi-san (on 06 February 2012)

I think we'll see the ps3 cut into the 360 gap by another 500 - 600k this year. At this rate though, i doubt ps3 will overtake 360 lifetime sales ever.

  • -1
Wh1pL4shL1ve_007
Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 (on 07 February 2012)

Is that taking a price cut and Halo 4 in to account?

  • -1
pezus
pezus (on 07 February 2012)

Let's be honest here. Single games don't provide much of a boost. The boost will be slightly larger than for Gears of War 3 and even that game only lifted 360 above PS3 for one week. Maybe two weeks for Halo 4. The price cut is another matter and a wild card. Will Sony cut PS3's price too to sustain its sales? Will Kinect be as popular as last year?

  • +1