The Japan Preview: 10/9/11 Edition (Winning Eleven, AKB1) - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 09 October 2011 / 5,772 Views
Software sales in Japan were strong this week on two major new titles, but are abysmal outside those two games. The major winner for the week was Konami, which saw strong sales for its flagship soccer title this week. AKB1, a music game for PSP also performed well. The gap between these two titles and all other games was nonetheless enormous, preventing the week from being 'stellar' instead of just strong.
1) World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 (PS3) - 253,000
2) AKB1/48: Idol to Guam to Koishitara (PSP) - 238,000
3) Shin Sangoku Musou 6 & Shin Sangoku Musou 6 Moushouden (PS3) - 29,000
4) Eiyuu Densetsu: Ao no Kiseki (PSP) - 24,000
5) F1 2011 (PS3) - 14,000
7) Dark Souls (PS3) - 11,000
7) Monster Hunter Portable 3 (PSP) - 11,000
9) Atsumete! Kirby (DS) - 10,000
9) Rage (PS3) - 10,000
11) Dragon Quest Collection (Wii) - 8,000
11) Rhythm Heaven Wii (Wii) - 8,000
12) Pokemon Scramble (3DS) - 6,000
15) Family Fishing (Wii) - 5,000
15) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (3DS) - 5,000
15) Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (PSP) - 5,000
In addition to the games above, Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Pokemon Black / White (DS), Mario Kart Wii (Wii), Tales of Xillia (PS3), and Wii Fit Plus (Wii) should appear in the final top 20 data for the week.
Looking at the data this week, Winning Eleven opened better than last year on PS3, similarly to how Fifa has opened better than previous games in the West this year. AKB1 actually opened at a nearly identical level to the previous game. Typically a sequel with a similar opening to the original game will decline faster, but that will be determined next week. Outside the top two games there is a very rapid tail off in software sales obviously - the game ranked 20th this week probably sold about 4,000 units compared to a about a quarter-million each for the top two games. That kind of spread reflects seasonality - October is always quiet in Japan even when major content does come out.
Going forward, Just Dance Wii is going to be the most interesting game to watch in Japan during October. Preorders for the game (which has Japanese content and is published by Nintendo), have grown from virtually nothing to 20,000 units or so in the past week. The game does not release until October 13, so preorders could reach 25,000 - 50,000 units. An opening of anything from 40,000 to 100,000 units week one is thus possible. Given the Rhythm Heaven and Taiko audience on Wii is around 500,000 people at the moment, whatever the game sells week one could be just about matched in week two as was the case with Rhythm Heaven back in July. In the West, Just Dance started slowly before becoming enormous - it will be interesting to see if that happens in Japan too, as the country definitely has an affinity for music and dance games pushed by Japanese companies.
Kirby Wii (late October), and Final Fantasy Type O for PSP should also perform well in October, although neither will perform in any unexpected way or push hardware too much. The major content then begins to flow like water from a geyser in November.
Year to date figures in Japan for the first nine months of 2011 are a bit strange. Excluding 3DS, hardware sales are down over 30%, but with 3DS hardware is nearly flat, a meredown a very modest 1.5% year to date. That means hardware sales should be up by the end of 2011 as the Wii / DS declines are basically offset by 3DS, and Vita will offset the modest unit declines for PSP, PS3, PS2 and X360. Software sales in contrast continue to track well below the 2010 pace. Even with major content coming throughout November and December it is somewhat hard to imagine software sales coming close to figures reached during 2010. Next year, both hardware and software figures should be better, as Wii U, Vita and 3DS will be establishing themselves, with PS3, PSP, and Wii still enjoying fairly good sales from the 'long tail' pattern of decline. Essentially now that new platforms are coming and most older platforms can't decline more than 1m units individually per year it should be easy for Japan to have a good year in 2012. PSP is really the only system capable of seeing a big decline in Japan next year (on a unit basis) as users migrate to Vita given the figures the other systems are set to have in 2012.
Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
More Articles
I. Want. Pre-Order. Numbers. FOR. FINAL FANTASY. TYPE-***-0!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"PSP is really the only system capable of seeing a big decline in Japan next year (on a unit basis) as users migrate to Vita given the figures the other systems are set to have in 2012."
Source, are you forgetting the Wii? Which is likely to sell (IMO) less than 500k in Japan next Year with even less support and WiiU release? DS is probably gonna be dying rapidly too with 3DS becoming more established. Hell, PS3 could even drop quite a bit if the Year is quite dry, especially around WiiU launch.
^^
He said "on a unit basis"
How is Wii enjoying farily good sales? Do you honestly believe Wii will be selling any SW come next year?
Wii won't sell software next year? Dragon Quest X is out next year, and you know the Japanese will eat it up.
I thought all eyes were on Frogger 3DS....
no offence but its akb48 =)
and its a game where you have a "date" with one of the 48 idols in Guam.
endless replay value!!!
Oooh, I almost missed this weeks Nintendo Preview.
and FF 13-2???
Wait, Just Dance is more interesting than Type-O. I know pre-orders for Type-O have got to be more than 50,000 right now. I think it will probably push just a tad bit more HW than Just Dance.
Okay, I admit tracking Just Dance goes against my argument =P
hello,welcome to www.abcneed. com,i hope everyone will more like them because of there have more nice top goods and cheaper price in there,thanks
