Pre E3: Speculating on Project Cafe & Vita Launch Games
by Jacob Mazel, posted on 03 June 2011 / 5,823 Views
New systems from Nintendo & Sony are set to debut at E3. We won't know the trajectory of each system for quite some time but there is no harm in speculating about titles that will be shown at E3, to be launched in the launch year of each platform. Some NGP games have already been announced, so this article will focus mostly on Cafe, which has precisely zero confirmed launch game. Even so, I have listed some obvious NGP games that could be announced below the Cafe section.
Wii 2 / Cafe / Current / Stream
Very Likely Nintendo Games
From Nintendo, there are five candidates for Cafe that are likely for launch.
If you look back at the GC era, Nintendo's biggest games not to get sequels on Wii are Starfox, Luigi's Mansion, Pikmin, a main Pokemon game and various Mario Sports games. It is my belief that Luigi's Mansion is a one-off title, and not something intended to be a franchise. Pikmin 3 is supposedly in development - but no one really knows if its for Cafe, Wii, or 3DS. Wii has plenty of sports titles already, even though it doesn't have a Mario Golf or Tennis so some kind of sports game is probably in the works for Cafe. A new Pokemon title has previously been confirmed for Wii, and Pokemon is "a big-base" title - so it probably hasn't been moved to Cafe. That leaves Starfox as the 'main franchise' for Cafe.
Nintendo probably had some "motion control" game play ideas that couldn't be accomplished due to the limits of the motion technology or graphics of the Wii, and given the rumors surrounding Cafe, you'd expect a motion control game at launch. Miyamoto has said previously that he hasn't created a character based game in nearly 10 years and would be introducing a new property soon. Retro, after finishing Donkey Kong Country Returns for Wii in 2010, can have something ready for late 2012 too.
Given all of that, the likeliest Nintendo titles for the Cafe launch period are:
1) Starfox
2) A Motion Control oriented game
3) Miyamoto's new character based game
4) Pikmin 3
5) Retro's game
Somewhat Likely Nintendo Games
Going back a little bit further, to the SNES & N64 days, a couple other possibilites exist. F-Zero was pretty big for SNES and N64, but floundered on GC. 1080 Snowboarding, Wave Race and others sold well on N64, but not on GC - and Nintendo seems content to release 'multi' sports games rather than single sports games. Yoshi's Island and Yoshi's Story both did pretty well on the SNES and N64 so we might be due for some kind of new console Yoshi game. We've recently seen Nintendo revive Kid Icarus and PilotWings for 3DS, so some of Nintendo's older franchises from N64 / SNES could come back if Nintendo feels there is the possibility of game play improvement.
If Cafe launches in mid-late 2012 as is expected, Nintendo could also bring Smash Bros., Mario Party or Punch Out or some other big multi-player game that hasn't seen a release in 3-4 years. Fire Emblem is probably another title that would benefit from a graphical overhaul and online push, and could in theory arrive in 2012 given how long its been since the Wii game released. A 2D Mario console game could also be ready for late 2012, given that New Super Mario Bros. Wii will have released three years before by that point.
From this category, the most likely games are those that would likely perform quite well simply from better online gameplay and a big graphical increase.
1) F-Zero
2) Smash
3) Wave Race
Long Shot Launch Nintendo Games
Nintendo is known to be preparing Mario Kart and a 3D Super Mario game for 3DS for the end of the March 2012 fiscal year. If we look at DS & Wii, the 3D Mario games came three years apart, and the Mario Karts came two years apart. In other words, both titles are more likely for late 2013 and 2014 than they are in 2012 to early 2013.
Zelda, Kirby, Rhythm Heaven and Pokemon are likely Nintendo's big games on Wii for the next year or so. Since its difficult to imagine Nintendo meeting its Wii projections without these games, these franchises aren't coming to the Cafe in the launch year.
Of the long-shots, Mario Kart is probably the game with the longest odds for the Cafe launch period.
Third Party Launch Games for Cafe
Western third parties, despite their grumblings, have actually done fairly well on Wii. Japanese third parties have generally had much more trouble, save for Sega. Nintendo has also hinted in recent years that it has deep concerns about the Japanese video game market and would focus on the West. If that is the case, the third party Cafe launch lineup should be Western oriented.
The 10 most likely third party games for Cafe in the launch period are the following:
Sonic Generations (Sega)
Saint's Row (THQ)
A Tom Clancy game (Ubisoft)
Resident Evil 6 (Capcom)
Street Fighter vs. Tekken or Tekken vs. Street Fighter (Capcom / Namco)
Soul Calbur 5 (Namco)
Madden (EA)
Fifa (EA)
Call of Duty (Activision)
A Rockstar Game (Take Two)
The list is based on a) games that have come to 3DS, b) typical launch period games, c) what Wii had at launch. 3DS has had a pretty steady flow of fighters since it launched, as well as a Tom Clancy game. THQ announced Saint's Row for 3DS, but it appears to have been cancelled. Since Wii 2 should have a slightly older demographic than 3DS, with far higher attach rates and a Western focus, titles in the vein of what appeared on 3DS are likely a good preview of what is to come. Madden, Fifa, Call of Duty, and Resident Evil have each been modestly successful franchises on Wii, and could see significant expansion on Wii 2 with graphics and online play on par or better than on X360 and PS3. Soul Calibur and Street Fighter didn't release on Wii, but have previously sold very well on "core-oriented" Nintendo systems.
If I ran Nintendo, I'd probably give Rockstar $50 million to put GTA on Wii 2 with exclusive content - that would be a hell of a launch game, particularly if Cafe & GTA V both released in say, June 2012 in the West. Discussions have likely happened, given all the rumors about GTAV on Wii 2. Even if it isn't GTA V, Rockstar probably has something for Cafe, after largely ignoring Wii, given that GTA did alright on the DS by raw figures (but poorly by GTA standards). On the other hand, GTA has 20 million fans, and Cafe will probably have fewer than 10 million users at the end of 2012 even it launched in say, April, so without money from Nintendo, there is little incentive to put GTA V on Cafe.
The launch period will probably have some new, somewhat experiment games as well, but those are much harder to predict. If you put a gun to my head, I'd imagine Cafe sees 10 or so of these 15 titles by December 2012:
1) Starfox
2) Pikmin 3
3) Call of Duty
4) Saint's Row
5) Resident Evil 6
6) GTA V / Rockstar game
7) Sonic Generations
8) Tom Clancy title
9) Madden
10) Fifa
11) Soul Calibur 5
12) Street Fighter vs. Tekken
13) Miyamoto's new game
14) A major Motion-Control oriented game from Nintendo
15) Retro's new game
NGP / Vita / PSP 2
Known NGP Game Announcements
Some NGP games have already been announced. Uncharted, Call of Duty, Madden, Fifa, Monster Hunter, Little Deviants, Wipeout, Reality Fighters, Sound Shapes, Everyday Shooter, Hot Shots Golf, Resistance, Super Stardust, and Resistance and others are all supposed to be coming. Thats' already enough for a day one / month one line up, but a couple of other games are still pretty likely to be announced for NGP as well.
New NGP Announcements
Since PSP2 has similar horsepower to PS3, X360, and Cafe, some titles are fairly likely to be released simultaneously for all four platforms. However, since PSP is far more successful than PS3, X360 and Wii in Japan, the system will probably get substantial Japanese exclusives initially. The following games that have yet to be announced strike me as quite likely for PSP2 within a year of launch:
1) GTA
2) LittleBigPlanet
3) Tekken vs. Street Fighter or Street Fighter vs. Tekken
4) Kingdom Hearts
5) Winning Eleven
6) Resident Evil 6
7) Tomb Raider
8) Soul Calibur 5
9) Devil May Cry
10) White Knight Chronicles
My speculation for the above ten titles is similar to Cafe - some games like Madden are simply 'launch games'. White Knight Chronicles, if changed subtly could probably perform very well on NGP - the same goes for Resident Evil, Devil May Cry, LBP and Kingdom Hearts. GTA and fighters have also put up respectable numbers on the original PSP, so I don't see why they wouldn't be continued on NGP.
Amongst the confirmed games, we have several new properties. Sony likely will try to take advantage of NGP's innovative hardware features at launch too. I think its pretty fair to expect Parappa the Rappa like innovation from either Sony or third parties in addition to what has already been shown.
Overall, the launch line for NGP should be strong, particularly for those who like games made in Japan.
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