Analyst Suggests Launching PS6 and Project Helix at $1,000 Could Lead to a 38% Drop in Sales - Sales
by William D'Angelo , posted on 19 August 2026 / 3,767 Views
A new report from Ampere Analysis has suggested that if Sony and Microsoft were to launch the PlayStation 6 and next-generation Xbox, Project Helix, as "conventionally designed, incrementally improved next-generation consoles" at $1,000 the number of consoles sold would be considerably lower than the previous generations.
At that specific price the report says the combined sales of the PS6 and Project Helix will be up to 38 percent lower than the combined sales of the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S.
VGChartz currently estimates 93.57 million PS5s and 35.10 million Xbox Series X|S consoles have been sold. This brings the combined total to 128.67 million units with a likely scenario of between 140 million and 160 million sold by the end of the generation. A 38 percent drop would put the next-generation between 87 million and 99 million units sold.
The report adds that the higher price would impact consumer spending as Ampere is estimates that by 2031 the console games and services market across the PlayStation and Xbox would be 12 percent or $3.4 billion lower than if the consoles were sold for $700 at launch.
Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo have been increasing the price of consoles over the past year or so due to the shortages in memory and storage causing the prices of those parts to increase significantly.
Ampere suggests there are different ways for Sony and Microsoft to avoid launching a console at $1,000.
The first is to "delay the launch of the next generation beyond the end of 2028, extending the lifecycle of current consoles" to wait for the price of parts to drop. This is with the current strategy of release an incrementally improved version of the previous hardware.
Another option is to aim for a 2028 release window, but reduce the price by using "heavier hardware subsidies, new monetization models, more aggressive digital content strategies and optimized sales channels."
The last option is to "substantially innovate on hardware form factor and use cases, placing less emphasis on graphical improvement." This would allow Sony and Microsoft to offer a next-generation has differentiates itself from the previous one in a more significant way.
Project Helix has been announced to be a hybrid console PC, which would be different from previous Xbox consoles.
Thanks, VideoGamesChronicle.
A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012 and taking over the hardware estimates in 2017. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel. You can follow the author on Bluesky.
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so long 100 million plus console sales for Sony and Microsoft
Nah... too soon to say.
I think they would see larger than a 40% drop for total sales...
The PS3 was effectively $1000 at launch, adjusted for inflation
True but the economy is going to be rough in 2028-29. $1000, paid online, and $80 games will not look good for general consumers.
You realise when the PS3 hit it's stride was the banking crisis right?
And it almost killed Sony at the time. Ps3's initial fall from grace was legendarily bad, especially being the follow up to the best selling console. Its part of what gave Xbox a real chance at being a player in the console market. It took a massive overhaul and almost the entire console generation for ps3 to turn things around.
The ps3 was sold at a significant loss, I think the highest ever for any console. A $1000 PS6 would be getting sold at cost. The economics of modern video game consoles is completely different. Sony could sell under 10m consoles this year and they're going to make the highest net profit in their history.
These companies are making record profits. They 100% can afford to sell their consoles at a loss like they always did, and make plenylty back on overpriced accessories, subscriptions, games, psn store purchases etc
Very true, and it’s sales declined 45% from the PS2 which would be 600 in today’s USD.
I don’t think it would be a good idea for Sony to launch at that price. In 2030, 630 USD seems reasonable. That means they either launch at 1000 USD in 2027, and lower it substantially in 2-3 years once component production adjusts to the new normal… or there’s a crash in the “AI bubble” and there’s a sudden drop in the value of components, which could become even cheaper because of an over correction in production volumes. Otherwise, hold off until 2029/30 and launch at a reasonable price while focusing on the PS5 for another couple of years.
The sales percentage drop is for PS and Xbox combined sales. The PS360 generation did not actually have a significant drop in sales. More people just bought a cheaper xbox, but that won't be an option this time.
They should just hold off. Wait out the ram ai bubble. Inflation figures dont mean anything when most gamers wages havent kept up with the last half decade of inflation. Game consoles economic models are based on mass adoption which neccesitates affordable pricing. If they want to move to a niche more expensive gamer model, i just dont see things panning out for anyone.
I wouldn't buy either at that price.
This isn't just gonna effect consoles. Like how much is it gonna cost to build a PC that can match next gen spec? This is past crazy.
It's not just about price anymore, I'm not convinced I really need a more powerful machine. This gen is almost over and I'm still waiting for next gen experiences.
What would you deem a next gen experience? From what I've seen, MS and Sony games look bloody amazing, even compared to PS4, and the dualsense features in many games really add to the overall experience.
Well >1,000 = it would only reach 64/SNES lifetime sales for PS6. Even PS6 handheld would be very expensive because it can emulate/play PS5 games, it would be $849.99.
As for Xbox Helix they will still do cheaper S version maybe at $649.99/$699.99 with the X version the same price as PS6. Xbox rumored to not have "first party" handheld & just let OEMs make that for them. Xbox Helix will sell about the same as current Xbox Series, maybe a bit less. But I think Xbox will expand consoles region, not just 40 countries like now, maybe added about 20 countries next gen, so 60 countries consoles region.
Both PS5 & Xbox Series will still be sold until 2029.
I'll pass on that gen, or at least until the prices fall back down. Cant justify spending that much from the start on gaming
just wait until they figure out some downpayment monthly subscription for your console. We will enter a new era of win.
Xbox has been offering that for awhile and its not like theyve been doing any better...
Only a 38% drop? That's optimistic.
