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Switch to Outsell PS5 and Xbox Series X and S in Holiday 2020, Predicts NPD Analyst

Switch to Outsell PS5 and Xbox Series X and S in Holiday 2020, Predicts NPD Analyst - Sales

by William D'Angelo , posted on 06 December 2020 / 2,209 Views

Video game industry analyst at NPD Mat Piscatella has released his predictions for the US video game market for holiday 2020. 

The next-generation consoles, the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X and S, will be tough to find as demand is expected to remain high into next year. 

"I’ll start with the most obvious prediction," said Piscatella. "PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles should be among the hottest holiday gifting items of 2020. Units will be tough to find with continued strong demand into 2021."

Piscatella predicts the Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console this coming holiday season. The hybrid video game console will be the "hot holiday gifting item with more households picking up multiple Switch consoles in the fourth quarter." The lack of inventory for the PlayStation and Xbox consoles will lead more people to pick up a Switch, however, the Switch might also be hard to find. 

Switch to Outsell PS5 and Xbox Series X and S in Holiday 2020, Predicts NPD Analyst

Promotions on hardware for this holiday will be the lowest in history as all consoles will be hard to find, according to Piscatella.

"The surge in hardware demand seen throughout the spring and summer months of 2020 has left inventories for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One consoles lean, leaving little incentive to price promote," said Piscatella. "While some bundling for legacy hardware may exist, particularly around Black Friday, I do not see price promotion being a significant factor in the holiday 2020 market."

Unsurprisingly, he predicts Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War to be the best-selling game of 2020, and Call of Duty will be the best-selling gaming franchise in the US for the 12th consecutive year.

Backward compatibility and shortage of next-generation releases he predicts will lead to better legs for legacy generation titles.

"I am expecting many titles from the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One catalogs to see refreshed demand with adoption of next-generation consoles," he said. "We will not see the sharp platform breaks that were experienced in prior generational transitions."

The amount people spend on gaming subscription services is expected to grow this holiday with Xbox Game Pass Ultimate as the main driver.

"This area has been a growth segment for some time, but an emphasis on these services with next-generation consoles will lead to a sharp uptick for early adopters," he says. "Xbox Game Pass Ultimate will be a primary driver. "


A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.


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9 Comments
Rafie (on 13 October 2020)

That's a given. Next holiday will tell a more interesting story. Switch will continue to beast for the forseeable future.

  • +11
AFattyGamer (on 13 October 2020)

Not sure I agree with this. If Sony doesn't have enough supply to meet the PS5 demand in holiday launch window the Switch will outsell the PS5. However articles I've read have said the opposite. Sony is looking to meet this PS5 demand. We'll see though.

  • +1
Sogreblute AFattyGamer (on 14 October 2020)

The PS4 did 4.5 mil in it's first holiday (launch). The Switch did nearly 11 mil last holiday. We are fully expecting the Switch to either match or exceed it's last holiday. So the PS5 would potentially need 11+ mil in 1.5 months. I do not see that happening.

  • -2
AFattyGamer AFattyGamer (on 14 October 2020)

@Sogreblute Yeah last holiday the Nintendo Switch did that friend. What were the Nintendo Switch's 2017 holiday sales? All I'll say friend is don't sleep on Sony. PS5 is looking to shock the world in a few weeks and Sony is looking to meet this demand and break sale records. And the PS5 has an impressive launch line up. Hopimg the best for both Nintendo and Sony this holiday season ;)

  • 0
shikamaru317 (on 13 October 2020)

Considering they probably have more stock ready than either next-gen console, they should sell more. Maybe Switch will get it's first price cut this Holiday as well, it has been out for more than 3 years without a price cut afterall.

  • 0
S.Peelman (on 13 October 2020)

Water is wet.

  • 0
Shadow1980 (on 13 October 2020)

The odds of the Switch being #1 this holiday season were always extremely high. For it to not be #1, it would have to be way down YoY and/or either the PS5 or XSX/S would have to destroy the previous record launch set by the PS4. Either outcome is unlikely. I give the Switch a 95% chance of being the #1 system this holiday season.

  • 0
Signalstar (on 13 October 2020)

Obvious but thorough analysis. I agree with nearly everything. Sony still needs to cut the price of the PS4 and PS4 Pro. I predict they will cut the price for the holidays and make the cut permanent next spring. It's inconceivable that they will sell the PS4 Pro and PS5 Digital Edition for the same price.

  • 0
Kanemaru (on 13 October 2020)

I predict that "PS7" will beat the "Unplugged" (next nintendo console) to become the best selling console of all times and that "Xbox Super Rated Active Power XXL 007" will be the biggest flop ever. Too lazy to write my complete analysis but it's obvious at this point.

  • -2